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Topic: Will The Bitcoin Investment Trust affect the price? - page 8. (Read 16830 times)

hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
I fail to see why people think that the announcement for the eventual purchase of $2.5 mm of bitcoins over an unspecified period of Time will have any impact on the price of BTC? It's not like they're saying that tomorrow they have to spend that much, they have the freedom to do so over days, weeks or months even. No matter how illiquid bitcoins are, those purchases spread over any period if time wint make an impact in a $1+ billion market cap commodity. And after that, they won't be buying any bitcoins at all. When new shares are created, it will be because an authorized participant contributed bitcoins for shares. And when shares are redeemed, all that will occur is that an authorized participant turned in their shares and redeemed them for bitcoins. Whether that person then sells their coins is not assured.

That's how etf's work (which is how this vehicle is described). If this were an open end Mutual fund, then each days purchases and withdrawals would be accompanied by the fund buying or selling bitcoins on an exchange. But that's specifically not what this investment vehicle is.
hero member
Activity: 509
Merit: 500
Can't upload avatar
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
Bubbling Up!
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
Are we there yet?

Are we there yet?

Are we there yet?

Are we there yet?

Are we there yet?


ITS REVERSAL TIME!?

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
Wonder how long price movement will take, or when BIT will collect their first $2.5 million.  I could see 5-10 investors/wealthy action junkies scooping that up in a few weeks.  It's not much money to some.

This is good news for bitcoin. The only question, I suppose, is "how good of news". 

Perhaps the smart money has already priced it in. It's not exactly like Bitcoinland has fantastic controls for trading on inside information.

i'm not sure why you keep insisting on this.

i'm sure that a few insiders bought on insider information but it's not like this announcement was publicly known.  in fact, it came out of left field just a couple of days ago.  this certainly didn't include the vast majority of millionaires out there who might want to buy some Bitcoin shares now and in the future.

In a market this size, it would only take a few.

that's my point.

it might have only taken a few to take the price up to where it is now.

can you imagine where we'll go when the thousands of other "few" start piling in?

You know full well what "priced in" means.

we've been pricing in the potential retracement to 90-70.

want proof?

ask yourself why did you sell.

or go short.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Wonder how long price movement will take, or when BIT will collect their first $2.5 million.  I could see 5-10 investors/wealthy action junkies scooping that up in a few weeks.  It's not much money to some.

This is good news for bitcoin. The only question, I suppose, is "how good of news". 

Perhaps the smart money has already priced it in. It's not exactly like Bitcoinland has fantastic controls for trading on inside information.

i'm not sure why you keep insisting on this.

i'm sure that a few insiders bought on insider information but it's not like this announcement was publicly known.  in fact, it came out of left field just a couple of days ago.  this certainly didn't include the vast majority of millionaires out there who might want to buy some Bitcoin shares now and in the future.

In a market this size, it would only take a few.

that's my point.

it might have only taken a few to take the price up to where it is now.

can you imagine where we'll go when the thousands of other "few" start piling in?

You know full well what "priced in" means.

we've been pricing in the potential retracement to 90-70.

want proof?

ask yourself why did you sell.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
Wonder how long price movement will take, or when BIT will collect their first $2.5 million.  I could see 5-10 investors/wealthy action junkies scooping that up in a few weeks.  It's not much money to some.

This is good news for bitcoin. The only question, I suppose, is "how good of news". 

Perhaps the smart money has already priced it in. It's not exactly like Bitcoinland has fantastic controls for trading on inside information.

i'm not sure why you keep insisting on this.

i'm sure that a few insiders bought on insider information but it's not like this announcement was publicly known.  in fact, it came out of left field just a couple of days ago.  this certainly didn't include the vast majority of millionaires out there who might want to buy some Bitcoin shares now and in the future.

In a market this size, it would only take a few.

that's my point.

it might have only taken a few to take the price up to where it is now.

can you imagine where we'll go when the thousands of other "few" start piling in?
legendary
Activity: 1168
Merit: 1000
Wonder how long price movement will take, or when BIT will collect their first $2.5 million.  I could see 5-10 investors/wealthy action junkies scooping that up in a few weeks.  It's not much money to some.

This is good news for bitcoin. The only question, I suppose, is "how good of news".  

Perhaps the smart money has already priced it in. It's not exactly like Bitcoinland has fantastic controls for trading on inside information.

It'd be interesting to see some analysis of volume purchases on Gox/BitStamp over the past few months.  Has there been substantially more buying than what might be expected from the "collection" of $2.5 million in BTC (18k BTC or whatever) for this fund?  There are plenty of people not in the "smart money" sitting around, waiting to pick up btc when news arrives.  I would guess many of these people have just as much money on the exchanges as the "smart money", and are able to move the market and shift buying momentum.

If there was any concentrated buying in particular it was done back in April.

Ideally.  Is that suggesting there wouldn't be a recovery following the crash if someone weren't heavily purchasing for this fund?

I would think they'd purchase closer to launch, so as to minimize risk (unless they just knew the price would continue to climb).
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
Wonder how long price movement will take, or when BIT will collect their first $2.5 million.  I could see 5-10 investors/wealthy action junkies scooping that up in a few weeks.  It's not much money to some.

This is good news for bitcoin. The only question, I suppose, is "how good of news". 

Perhaps the smart money has already priced it in. It's not exactly like Bitcoinland has fantastic controls for trading on inside information.

i'm not sure why you keep insisting on this.

i'm sure that a few insiders bought on insider information but it's not like this announcement was publicly known.  in fact, it came out of left field just a couple of days ago.  this certainly didn't include the vast majority of millionaires out there who might want to buy some Bitcoin shares now and in the future.
sr. member
Activity: 454
Merit: 250
Wow if you google "Bitcoin Investment Trust" in regular search you will see that like every news outlet on earth has picked this story up.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Wonder how long price movement will take, or when BIT will collect their first $2.5 million.  I could see 5-10 investors/wealthy action junkies scooping that up in a few weeks.  It's not much money to some.

This is good news for bitcoin. The only question, I suppose, is "how good of news". 

Perhaps the smart money has already priced it in. It's not exactly like Bitcoinland has fantastic controls for trading on inside information.

Perhaps Matrix Oracle Choupacabra here is short bitcoin on CampBX or currently looking to load up on some fresh coins.

he must be short hes been expecting a reversal.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Wonder how long price movement will take, or when BIT will collect their first $2.5 million.  I could see 5-10 investors/wealthy action junkies scooping that up in a few weeks.  It's not much money to some.

This is good news for bitcoin. The only question, I suppose, is "how good of news". 

Perhaps the smart money has already priced it in. It's not exactly like Bitcoinland has fantastic controls for trading on inside information.

Perhaps Matrix Oracle Choupacabra here is short bitcoin on CampBX or currently looking to load up on some fresh coins.
legendary
Activity: 1168
Merit: 1000
Wonder how long price movement will take, or when BIT will collect their first $2.5 million.  I could see 5-10 investors/wealthy action junkies scooping that up in a few weeks.  It's not much money to some.

This is good news for bitcoin. The only question, I suppose, is "how good of news".  

Perhaps the smart money has already priced it in. It's not exactly like Bitcoinland has fantastic controls for trading on inside information.

It'd be interesting to see some analysis of volume purchases on Gox/BitStamp over the past few months.  Has there been substantially more buying than what might be expected from the "collection" of $2.5 million in BTC (18k BTC or whatever) for this fund?  There are plenty of people not in the "smart money" sitting around, waiting to pick up btc when news arrives.  I would guess many of these people have just as much money on the exchanges as the "smart money", and are able to move the market and shift buying momentum.
legendary
Activity: 1168
Merit: 1000
And "yes", the current price is reflected in that $2.5 million already purchased, but obviously this market is highly, highly speculative.  If the public sees this as positive news, with a positive expectation beyond that initial $2.5 million or whatever, then it seems logical for speculation to again start driving the price higher.  No..?

If the market cap reaches ~3-5 billion, we'll start seeing much more $$ thrown into bitcoin businesses.  Currently, it's more profitable to just purchase bitcoin than try to grab some small percentage market share of a not very large market.  It's self reinforcing, IMO.
legendary
Activity: 1168
Merit: 1000
Wonder how long price movement will take, or when BIT will collect their first $2.5 million.  I could see 5-10 investors/wealthy action junkies scooping that up in a few weeks.  It's not much money to some.

This is good news for bitcoin. The only question, I suppose, is "how good of news". 
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Price impact: Dramatically up

But not right away. Consider what will happen:

1) It will take X days, weeks, or months for the initial few million $ worth to be bought up. Those purchases have no effect on the exchange price, or maybe even a mild negative effect if some who were buying coins steadily via the exchanges switch over to BIT.

2) Once the initial few million in seed is bought up, Second Market will start to purchase more, maybe $5-10 million worth. If they do part or all of this on an exchange, the price impact will of course be strongly positive. However, given how many contacts they have for private placement, they'll likely acquire part or all of those coins from dark, non-exchange sources. If they purchase very few of those coins on exchanges, the immediate price impact will be negligible, but the medium-term effect will be dramatic.  

The reason why is a bit subtle but very real: Insofar as the people Second Market buys the coins from would have sold those coins on exchanges if it weren't for SM giving them the wonderful opportunity to sell without slippage, that much less BTC is going to be available on the exchanges. The same amount of money chasing fewer BTC means a higher price per coin. But there will be a time delay, perhaps days or weeks, maybe in some cases months.

The fun part is that those who understand the time delay get to make money off those who are fooled by the time delay. Translation: Buy before the price rises and get in on the ground floor of the next stage of the bitcoin rocket.

Then why does the price go down at all?

Unless—buyers make mistakes about how fast valuation actually gets priced in.

People are selling bitcoins because they need equipment for for this next stage of the bitcoin rocket.

bitcoin equipment

Yes, eventually the entire mass of the moon will be converted into a mining node.

thats a lot of 25 nm chips  Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 509
Merit: 500
Can't upload avatar
Price impact: Dramatically up

But not right away. Consider what will happen:

1) It will take X days, weeks, or months for the initial few million $ worth to be bought up. Those purchases have no effect on the exchange price, or maybe even a mild negative effect if some who were buying coins steadily via the exchanges switch over to BIT.

2) Once the initial few million in seed is bought up, Second Market will start to purchase more, maybe $5-10 million worth. If they do part or all of this on an exchange, the price impact will of course be strongly positive. However, given how many contacts they have for private placement, they'll likely acquire part or all of those coins from dark, non-exchange sources. If they purchase very few of those coins on exchanges, the immediate price impact will be negligible, but the medium-term effect will be dramatic.  

The reason why is a bit subtle but very real: Insofar as the people Second Market buys the coins from would have sold those coins on exchanges if it weren't for SM giving them the wonderful opportunity to sell without slippage, that much less BTC is going to be available on the exchanges. The same amount of money chasing fewer BTC means a higher price per coin. But there will be a time delay, perhaps days or weeks, maybe in some cases months.

The fun part is that those who understand the time delay get to make money off those who are fooled by the time delay. Translation: Buy before the price rises and get in on the ground floor of the next stage of the bitcoin rocket.

Then why does the price go down at all?

Unless—buyers make mistakes about how fast valuation actually gets priced in.

People are selling bitcoins because they need equipment for for this next stage of the bitcoin rocket.

bitcoin equipment
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
Price impact: Dramatically up

But not right away. Consider what will happen:

1) It will take X days, weeks, or months for the initial few million $ worth to be bought up. Those purchases have no effect on the exchange price, or maybe even a mild negative effect if some who were buying coins steadily via the exchanges switch over to BIT.

2) Once the initial few million in seed is bought up, Second Market will start to purchase more, maybe $5-10 million worth. If they do part or all of this on an exchange, the price impact will of course be strongly positive. However, given how many contacts they have for private placement, they'll likely acquire part or all of those coins from dark, non-exchange sources. If they purchase very few of those coins on exchanges, the immediate price impact will be negligible, but the medium-term effect will be dramatic.  

The reason why is a bit subtle but very real: Insofar as the people Second Market buys the coins from would have sold those coins on exchanges if it weren't for SM giving them the wonderful opportunity to sell without slippage, that much less BTC is going to be available on the exchanges. The same amount of money chasing fewer BTC means a higher price per coin. But there will be a time delay, perhaps days or weeks, maybe in some cases months.

The fun part is that those who understand the time delay get to make money off those who are fooled by the time delay. Translation: Buy before the price rises and get in on the ground floor of the next stage of the bitcoin rocket.

I think the price will be bumped a little just because many are thinking about it like this.  Buy before the price rises because it will take off at some point in upcoming weeks or months.

It is very bullish news though and I think it would be wise for those that were waiting for the right time to realize that this might be the "right time" even with prices higher than they have been the past few months.

I am already "all in" so I don't have any spare change to throw in or I would be buying more right now.  Husband just bought a new car too.  That cool new  $29,000 Mercedes. Of course he had to add a bunch of features so it is more than that.  It is setting us back a bit.  Oh well.  Wink

why does he need to buy the Mercedes when he already has you?  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
Price impact: Dramatically up

But not right away. Consider what will happen:

1) It will take X days, weeks, or months for the initial few million $ worth to be bought up. Those purchases have no effect on the exchange price, or maybe even a mild negative effect if some who were buying coins steadily via the exchanges switch over to BIT.

2) Once the initial few million in seed is bought up, Second Market will start to purchase more, maybe $5-10 million worth. If they do part or all of this on an exchange, the price impact will of course be strongly positive. However, given how many contacts they have for private placement, they'll likely acquire part or all of those coins from dark, non-exchange sources. If they purchase very few of those coins on exchanges, the immediate price impact will be negligible, but the medium-term effect will be dramatic.  

The reason why is a bit subtle but very real: Insofar as the people Second Market buys the coins from would have sold those coins on exchanges if it weren't for SM giving them the wonderful opportunity to sell without slippage, that much less BTC is going to be available on the exchanges. The same amount of money chasing fewer BTC means a higher price per coin. But there will be a time delay, perhaps days or weeks, maybe in some cases months.

The fun part is that those who understand the time delay get to make money off those who are fooled by the time delay. Translation: Buy before the price rises and get in on the ground floor of the next stage of the bitcoin rocket.

I think the price will be bumped a little just because many are thinking about it like this.  Buy before the price rises because it will take off at some point in upcoming weeks or months.

It is very bullish news though and I think it would be wise for those that were waiting for the right time to realize that this might be the "right time" even with prices higher than they have been the past few months.

I am already "all in" so I don't have any spare change to throw in or I would be buying more right now.  Husband just bought a new car too.  That cool new  $29,000 Mercedes. Of course he had to add a bunch of features so it is more than that.  It is setting us back a bit.  Oh well.  Wink
legendary
Activity: 4060
Merit: 1303
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