Topic: will the bitcoin reach $1000 one day...? - page 70. (Read 112632 times)

You can't really believe any answers on this forum as their are to many sock puppets. A guy who wants price to drop will tell you that Bitcoin is over and will probably be made illegal very soon. A guy with 1000 bitcoins will tell you that it will soon lead to interplanetary space travel, alien disclosure, talking animals, free chocolate and a 1 million USD price tag!

What do you guys think of this latest rally? Are we going to blast right through $200 after this consolidation, or are we going to see dumps soon, bringing us back to pre-parabolic levels?

You can't really believe any answers on this forum as their are to many sock puppets. A guy who wants price to drop will tell you that Bitcoin is over and will probably be made illegal very soon. A guy with 1000 bitcoins will tell you that it will soon lead to interplanetary space travel, alien disclosure, talking animals, free chocolate and a 1 million USD price tag!

If you count inflation then yes? In 1000 years it will hit 1000$. But if you compare current value i think true value of bit coin is 300$ and it will stuck there.

The upper bound for the value of 1 BTC in this year's USD is 1-5 million (given finite earth, etcetc,). Realistic positive long term scenario is 300k. If the whole crypto or BTC fails in some unforeseen way, it can be worth so little that it is impractical to trade.

 Let's put the possibilities in log scale (price of BTC in current USD):

10^7 = 10 million. Total value of bitcoins would be on par with total value of the Earth. This is not possible and this scenario is therefore utopistic.

10^6 = 1 million. All bitcoins would be about as valuable as the M1 monetary stock of a top-notch fiat currency such as the USD. This is in the realm of possibility, but clearly the most positive scenario imaginable, and therefore unlikely.

10^5 = 100 000. Bitcoins would be more valuable than all the silver ever mined, but less valuable than all the gold, and much less valuable than many fiat currencies of today (total value about 1000 billion).

10^4 = 10 000. This will be reached ??

10^3 = 1000. This will be reached ??

10^2 = 100. This was reached 4/2013.

10^1 = 10. This was reached in 6/2011.

10^0 = 1. This was reached in 2/2011.

10^-1 = 0.1. Minimum value that bitcoin has ever traded in an exchange. At that time there were no actual uses for the currency.

10^-2 = 0.01. This would render all the bitcoin economy worth about 100,000 USD. As this value is spread between millions of users, nobody has a big enough stock to have any incentive to care about bitcoin, and the exchanges and eventually even the network would likely grind to a halt. This is therefore an impossible long term scenario. Altcoins die if they cannot overcome this barrier or fall through it.

The market is very volatile because market participants need to assess probabilities to scenarios, which are not close to each other in outcome. In contrast to stock market, where there are reasonable bounds as to what a certain stock's value might be, with bitcoin there are only absolute bounds, 8 orders of magnitude from each other. If the market would reach consensus that in 1% probability, bitcoin's value is 1 million (and 99% probability it is zero), the price would explode to the upside as any price short of $10000 per bitcoin is a bargain with positive expected value.

Bitcoin is not in a bubble but in a genuine price discovery phase. Not longer than a few hours ago, I told that I expect bitcoin to rise to 4 digits before next summer. My friend's guess was $15. Both are preparing accordingly.