it stop raising now
185 usd at mt gox seems to be a resistance (?)
Topic: will the bitcoin reach $1000 one day...? - page 71. (Read 112647 times)
185 usd at mt gox seems to be a resistance (?)
The upper bound for the value of 1 BTC in this year's USD is 1-5 million (given finite earth, etcetc,). Realistic positive long term scenario is 300k. If the whole crypto or BTC fails in some unforeseen way, it can be worth so little that it is impractical to trade.
Let's put the possibilities in log scale (price of BTC in current USD):
10^7 = 10 million. Total value of bitcoins would be on par with total value of the Earth. This is not possible and this scenario is therefore utopistic.
10^6 = 1 million. All bitcoins would be about as valuable as the M1 monetary stock of a top-notch fiat currency such as the USD. This is in the realm of possibility, but clearly the most positive scenario imaginable, and therefore unlikely.
10^5 = 100 000. Bitcoins would be more valuable than all the silver ever mined, but less valuable than all the gold, and much less valuable than many fiat currencies of today (total value about 1000 billion).
10^4 = 10 000. This will be reached ??
10^3 = 1000. This will be reached ??
10^2 = 100. This was reached 4/2013.
10^1 = 10. This was reached in 6/2011.
10^0 = 1. This was reached in 2/2011.
10^-1 = 0.1. Minimum value that bitcoin has ever traded in an exchange. At that time there were no actual uses for the currency.
10^-2 = 0.01. This would render all the bitcoin economy worth about 100,000 USD. As this value is spread between millions of users, nobody has a big enough stock to have any incentive to care about bitcoin, and the exchanges and eventually even the network would likely grind to a halt. This is therefore an impossible long term scenario. Altcoins die if they cannot overcome this barrier or fall through it.
The market is very volatile because market participants need to assess probabilities to scenarios, which are not close to each other in outcome. In contrast to stock market, where there are reasonable bounds as to what a certain stock's value might be, with bitcoin there are only absolute bounds, 8 orders of magnitude from each other. If the market would reach consensus that in 1% probability, bitcoin's value is 1 million (and 99% probability it is zero), the price would explode to the upside as any price short of $10000 per bitcoin is a bargain with positive expected value.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble but in a genuine price discovery phase. Not longer than a few hours ago, I told that I expect bitcoin to rise to 4 digits before next summer. My friend's guess was $15. Both are preparing accordingly.
Let's put the possibilities in log scale (price of BTC in current USD):
10^7 = 10 million. Total value of bitcoins would be on par with total value of the Earth. This is not possible and this scenario is therefore utopistic.
10^6 = 1 million. All bitcoins would be about as valuable as the M1 monetary stock of a top-notch fiat currency such as the USD. This is in the realm of possibility, but clearly the most positive scenario imaginable, and therefore unlikely.
10^5 = 100 000. Bitcoins would be more valuable than all the silver ever mined, but less valuable than all the gold, and much less valuable than many fiat currencies of today (total value about 1000 billion).
10^4 = 10 000. This will be reached ??
10^3 = 1000. This will be reached ??
10^2 = 100. This was reached 4/2013.
10^1 = 10. This was reached in 6/2011.
10^0 = 1. This was reached in 2/2011.
10^-1 = 0.1. Minimum value that bitcoin has ever traded in an exchange. At that time there were no actual uses for the currency.
10^-2 = 0.01. This would render all the bitcoin economy worth about 100,000 USD. As this value is spread between millions of users, nobody has a big enough stock to have any incentive to care about bitcoin, and the exchanges and eventually even the network would likely grind to a halt. This is therefore an impossible long term scenario. Altcoins die if they cannot overcome this barrier or fall through it.
The market is very volatile because market participants need to assess probabilities to scenarios, which are not close to each other in outcome. In contrast to stock market, where there are reasonable bounds as to what a certain stock's value might be, with bitcoin there are only absolute bounds, 8 orders of magnitude from each other. If the market would reach consensus that in 1% probability, bitcoin's value is 1 million (and 99% probability it is zero), the price would explode to the upside as any price short of $10000 per bitcoin is a bargain with positive expected value.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble but in a genuine price discovery phase. Not longer than a few hours ago, I told that I expect bitcoin to rise to 4 digits before next summer. My friend's guess was $15. Both are preparing accordingly.
Wanted to pull in this quote from a related thread, because I think that this analysis is right on the money.
it stop raising now
$20 a day is not sustainable for long period
I tend to agree with this part of your statement. From what I have seen this looks very much like a beginning of a new bubble.
What sudden new reason is there for such huge value jumps? The Chinese? Nothing but speculation. Appearance of new bitcoin related companies? It's not like they build or tear down several bitcoin related companies per day to warrant such price changes.
I am certainly excited about what is happening right now, but I am also fearful that it might turn out to be just another bubble.
Much of the recent strength in price is, I'd imagine, due to the ability of BTC to weather the recent negative publicity and supposedly critical shocks. Yes, there was a drop in price, but the price held and rebounded quickly. That, I consider, is why there is increased confidence and appetite for the currency. The other factor is that with mining difficulty rising acutely, it's more economic for individuals to buy and hold BTC to gain exposure to any upside than it is to purchase mining equipment with uncertain ROI. The expression 'go big or go home' is probably apt when it comes to buying mining gear right now and for those that choose to spend less, buying the currency is the way to go.
$20 a day is not sustainable for long period
I tend to agree with this part of your statement. From what I have seen this looks very much like a beginning of a new bubble.
What sudden new reason is there for such huge value jumps? The Chinese? Nothing but speculation. Appearance of new bitcoin related companies? It's not like they build or tear down several bitcoin related companies per day to warrant such price changes.
I am certainly excited about what is happening right now, but I am also fearful that it might turn out to be just another bubble.
I'm really not sure where the price is going to go with this rally. A part of thinks we might even hit $1000 soon.... but I'm getting more bearish by the day. We need a nice correction before continuing on, otherwise we might crash down hard.
I agree that we need a correction, and I'm hoping for one. I sold a bunch and want to get back in around $130 if possible.
These damn traders stealing wealth. Hopefully the price keep raising, but not as fast as yesterday, $20 a day is not sustainable for long period
I'm really not sure where the price is going to go with this rally. A part of thinks we might even hit $1000 soon.... but I'm getting more bearish by the day. We need a nice correction before continuing on, otherwise we might crash down hard.
I agree that we need a correction, and I'm hoping for one. I sold a bunch and want to get back in around $130 if possible.
to all the eager sellers: don´t you miss da train
choo choo.... choo choo...
next stop 600 (chodpapa called it)
I'm really not sure where the price is going to go with this rally. A part of thinks we might even hit $1000 soon.... but I'm getting more bearish by the day. We need a nice correction before continuing on, otherwise we might crash down hard.
I agree that we need a correction, and I'm hoping for one. I sold a bunch and want to get back in around $130 if possible.
a bit more steam behind this rally and we might just get there sooner than later!
I think we all hope for it to hit $1k as I assume we're all coin holders?
I'm really not sure where the price is going to go with this rally. A part of thinks we might even hit $1000 soon.... but I'm getting more bearish by the day. We need a nice correction before continuing on, otherwise we might crash down hard.
And the nice thing about the entrepreneurs, that we the savers are in supporting the value of bitcoin, is that if we make the wrong decisions, our prosperity will evaporate and we fall back to the ranks of the wage-earning masses, as we deserve.
The sweet thing about bitcoin is that you don't have to convince anyone that it is good. You just put your money where your mouth is and bitcoin will win the argument for you. I remember discussions like this with colleagues in 2011, where I was like "but shouldn't you buy at least a few, there is so much upside and you can only lose the money you buy for", and they were like "I just don't believe in the idea", "But surely it has *some* chance of succeeding?", "No". That was around $5, at $10 I could taunt him, after that it became too cruel to mention.
I have said that there is a risk in NOT investing too. That said, I did not purchase that low, unfortunately. My husband and I were worried about being associated with the negative aspects of Bitcoin and there was no regulation back then. That said, I believe it is still a great time to buy even at $200! We are just scratching the surface of what it can and most likely will become.
Just this morning my husband and I were discussing how "old money" really is not involved yet. We were thinking about the Bernie Madoff scam. How much money did people throw into that? We looked it up and there was over 50 billion that went through the fund. Granted it was a pyramid scheme as we know, but think about it. What is the cap on Bitcoin right now? 1 billion or so? Let' say that the Bitcoin Investment Trust by Second Market, or some other fund that comes along, starts getting some of the numbers like the Madoff fund (that was only in America BTW and not world wide like Bitcoin) and the old money holders start to see the growth potential? The price of Bitcoin will just start going through the roof!
Hang on people. It will only get more fun from here I believe.
well pointed out
If the regular world economies start to collapse and people lose faith in those then there is no limit to how large the value of a bitcoin can get. $1000 could very well be around the corner.
And the nice thing about the entrepreneurs, that we the savers are in supporting the value of bitcoin, is that if we make the wrong decisions, our prosperity will evaporate and we fall back to the ranks of the wage-earning masses, as we deserve.
The sweet thing about bitcoin is that you don't have to convince anyone that it is good. You just put your money where your mouth is and bitcoin will win the argument for you. I remember discussions like this with colleagues in 2011, where I was like "but shouldn't you buy at least a few, there is so much upside and you can only lose the money you buy for", and they were like "I just don't believe in the idea", "But surely it has *some* chance of succeeding?", "No". That was around $5, at $10 I could taunt him, after that it became too cruel to mention.
I have said that there is a risk in NOT investing too. That said, I did not purchase that low, unfortunately. My husband and I were worried about being associated with the negative aspects of Bitcoin and there was no regulation back then. That said, I believe it is still a great time to buy even at $200! We are just scratching the surface of what it can and most likely will become.
Just this morning my husband and I were discussing how "old money" really is not involved yet. We were thinking about the Bernie Madoff scam. How much money did people throw into that? We looked it up and there was over 50 billion that went through the fund. Granted it was a pyramid scheme as we know, but think about it. What is the cap on Bitcoin right now? 1 billion or so? Let' say that the Bitcoin Investment Trust by Second Market, or some other fund that comes along, starts getting some of the numbers like the Madoff fund (that was only in America BTW and not world wide like Bitcoin) and the old money holders start to see the growth potential? The price of Bitcoin will just start going through the roof!
Hang on people. It will only get more fun from here I believe.
Yeah, this is the way I have thought about things from the beginning. Buy and hold, don't try to time the market, look at the big picture instead. BTC "market cap" just passed $2B again but there is far from that much money that has gone into buying them, because most were bought at lower prices. So the difference to Madoff is even bigger. Still, only invest money you can afford to lose, and don't speculate with funds you might need in the short term.
And the nice thing about the entrepreneurs, that we the savers are in supporting the value of bitcoin, is that if we make the wrong decisions, our prosperity will evaporate and we fall back to the ranks of the wage-earning masses, as we deserve.
The sweet thing about bitcoin is that you don't have to convince anyone that it is good. You just put your money where your mouth is and bitcoin will win the argument for you. I remember discussions like this with colleagues in 2011, where I was like "but shouldn't you buy at least a few, there is so much upside and you can only lose the money you buy for", and they were like "I just don't believe in the idea", "But surely it has *some* chance of succeeding?", "No". That was around $5, at $10 I could taunt him, after that it became too cruel to mention.
I have said that there is a risk in NOT investing too. That said, I did not purchase that low, unfortunately. My husband and I were worried about being associated with the negative aspects of Bitcoin and there was no regulation back then. That said, I believe it is still a great time to buy even at $200! We are just scratching the surface of what it can and most likely will become.
Just this morning my husband and I were discussing how "old money" really is not involved yet. We were thinking about the Bernie Madoff scam. How much money did people throw into that? We looked it up and there was over 50 billion that went through the fund. Granted it was a pyramid scheme as we know, but think about it. What is the cap on Bitcoin right now? 1 billion or so? Let' say that the Bitcoin Investment Trust by Second Market, or some other fund that comes along, starts getting some of the numbers like the Madoff fund (that was only in America BTW and not world wide like Bitcoin) and the old money holders start to see the growth potential? The price of Bitcoin will just start going through the roof!
Hang on people. It will only get more fun from here I believe.
probably a good observation in the long run but expect a VERY bumpy ride.
drop drop drop ! so can i buy cheap coin
What do you mean by cheap?
It should no go below 100 usd anytime soon.
What if $200 is cheap?
drop drop drop ! so can i buy cheap coin
What do you mean by cheap?
It should no go below 100 usd anytime soon.
drop drop drop ! so can i buy cheap coin
Yes, I'm looking for a buy op over the next week as well. Price bounced too quickly and will show some volatility soon.
drop drop drop ! so can i buy cheap coin
And the nice thing about the entrepreneurs, that we the savers are in supporting the value of bitcoin, is that if we make the wrong decisions, our prosperity will evaporate and we fall back to the ranks of the wage-earning masses, as we deserve.
The sweet thing about bitcoin is that you don't have to convince anyone that it is good. You just put your money where your mouth is and bitcoin will win the argument for you. I remember discussions like this with colleagues in 2011, where I was like "but shouldn't you buy at least a few, there is so much upside and you can only lose the money you buy for", and they were like "I just don't believe in the idea", "But surely it has *some* chance of succeeding?", "No". That was around $5, at $10 I could taunt him, after that it became too cruel to mention.
I have said that there is a risk in NOT investing too. That said, I did not purchase that low, unfortunately. My husband and I were worried about being associated with the negative aspects of Bitcoin and there was no regulation back then. That said, I believe it is still a great time to buy even at $200! We are just scratching the surface of what it can and most likely will become.
Just this morning my husband and I were discussing how "old money" really is not involved yet. We were thinking about the Bernie Madoff scam. How much money did people throw into that? We looked it up and there was over 50 billion that went through the fund. Granted it was a pyramid scheme as we know, but think about it. What is the cap on Bitcoin right now? 1 billion or so? Let' say that the Bitcoin Investment Trust by Second Market, or some other fund that comes along, starts getting some of the numbers like the Madoff fund (that was only in America BTW and not world wide like Bitcoin) and the old money holders start to see the growth potential? The price of Bitcoin will just start going through the roof!
Hang on people. It will only get more fun from here I believe.
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