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Topic: Winklevoss ETF update, what does this mean? - page 3. (Read 9515 times)

legendary
Activity: 1762
Merit: 1011

My opinion is that, if they get it through the system and get it listed it will be an enormous flop.

Care to explain why?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
Well, here it is and it looks like Bitcoin all by itself.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514457552/d721187ds1a.htm

"The Shares will consist of Bitcoin deposits"  This ain't no S&P 500 index ETF. They're fucked. lol

Uhm, I think that is the point - an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that is tied solely to the price of Bitcoin.  What were you expecting?

Read up the thread. I was responding to jbreher.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
Well, here it is and it looks like Bitcoin all by itself.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514457552/d721187ds1a.htm

"The Shares will consist of Bitcoin deposits"  This ain't no S&P 500 index ETF. They're fucked. lol

nice find
cheers for link

what is your feeling about this etf? will it be allowed? will it be a flop?

My opinion is that, if they get it through the system and get it listed it will be an enormous flop. I wonder how much of Zuckerberg's money they have jacked off between this and their BitInstant investment. ROFL
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Well, here it is and it looks like Bitcoin all by itself.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514457552/d721187ds1a.htm

"The Shares will consist of Bitcoin deposits"  This ain't no S&P 500 index ETF. They're fucked. lol

Uhm, I think that is the point - an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that is tied solely to the price of Bitcoin.  What were you expecting?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
Well, here it is and it looks like Bitcoin all by itself.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514457552/d721187ds1a.htm

"The Shares will consist of Bitcoin deposits"  This ain't no S&P 500 index ETF. They're fucked. lol

I don't get it. Who is fucked? The investors? The Winklevii? Those who do not invest? The SEC? The pinstriped bandits? Please clue me in.

The Winkleiidouches. lol
legendary
Activity: 1061
Merit: 1001
Well, here it is and it looks like Bitcoin all by itself.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514457552/d721187ds1a.htm

"The Shares will consist of Bitcoin deposits"  This ain't no S&P 500 index ETF. They're fucked. lol

nice find
cheers for link

what is your feeling about this etf? will it be allowed? will it be a flop?
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
Well, here it is and it looks like Bitcoin all by itself.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514457552/d721187ds1a.htm

"The Shares will consist of Bitcoin deposits"  This ain't no S&P 500 index ETF. They're fucked. lol

I don't get it. Who is fucked? The investors? The Winklevii? Those who do not invest? The SEC? The pinstriped bandits? Please clue me in.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
Well, here it is and it looks like Bitcoin all by itself.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514457552/d721187ds1a.htm

"The Shares will consist of Bitcoin deposits"  This ain't no S&P 500 index ETF. They're fucked. lol
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Read this and tell me if you believe Bitcoin will be a sound ETF investment for knowledgable players.

Quote
5. Finally, very new or very small ETFs sometimes trade inefficiently, resulting in wide spreads between their buy and sell prices or failure to track their benchmarks accurately. Wait for an ETF to gather at least $100 million in assets before you invest in it.

#2 and #5 are about the only ones that really matter - crypto's are always a risky investment (at least right now).  The risk/reward ratio is a factor, but trading volume is going to be what drives whether the big money gets involved.  If COIN is only moving $100k per day in volume, none of the big boys are going to bother screwing with it.

Agreed, 2 and 5 are the killers.

Granted, I don't know too much about investments pushed by pinstriped bandits. However, my impression of the average ETF is that it contains a basket of multiple securities, no? If so, why would a single-security ETF (e.g. COIN) be affected by #5 at all? The effort required to track a single security (e.g. Bitcoin) should be trivial, and therefore very efficient, should it not?

I believe this has more to do with internal management of the fund than anything.  Basically, how efficient & fast they are at fulfilling orders and reacting to price fluctuations in whatever they are benchmarking.  When you are day trading (or bot-trading) and seconds matter, this comes into play.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
Read this and tell me if you believe Bitcoin will be a sound ETF investment for knowledgable players.

Quote
5. Finally, very new or very small ETFs sometimes trade inefficiently, resulting in wide spreads between their buy and sell prices or failure to track their benchmarks accurately. Wait for an ETF to gather at least $100 million in assets before you invest in it.

#2 and #5 are about the only ones that really matter - crypto's are always a risky investment (at least right now).  The risk/reward ratio is a factor, but trading volume is going to be what drives whether the big money gets involved.  If COIN is only moving $100k per day in volume, none of the big boys are going to bother screwing with it.

Agreed, 2 and 5 are the killers.

Granted, I don't know too much about investments pushed by pinstriped bandits. However, my impression of the average ETF is that it contains a basket of multiple securities, no? If so, why would a single-security ETF (e.g. COIN) be affected by #5 at all? The effort required to track a single security (e.g. Bitcoin) should be trivial, and therefore very efficient, should it not?

You're absolutely right and that's a good point. Classic ETFs are a bundle that together make up an investment category (like "technology") but it doesn't have to be that way. If someone can find a copy of the prospectus we can find out.
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
Read this and tell me if you believe Bitcoin will be a sound ETF investment for knowledgable players.

Quote
5. Finally, very new or very small ETFs sometimes trade inefficiently, resulting in wide spreads between their buy and sell prices or failure to track their benchmarks accurately. Wait for an ETF to gather at least $100 million in assets before you invest in it.

#2 and #5 are about the only ones that really matter - crypto's are always a risky investment (at least right now).  The risk/reward ratio is a factor, but trading volume is going to be what drives whether the big money gets involved.  If COIN is only moving $100k per day in volume, none of the big boys are going to bother screwing with it.

Agreed, 2 and 5 are the killers.

Granted, I don't know too much about investments pushed by pinstriped bandits. However, my impression of the average ETF is that it contains a basket of multiple securities, no? If so, why would a single-security ETF (e.g. COIN) be affected by #5 at all? The effort required to track a single security (e.g. Bitcoin) should be trivial, and therefore very efficient, should it not?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
Read this and tell me if you believe Bitcoin will be a sound ETF investment for knowledgable players.

Quote
Ways to identify a bad ETF investment

The following four tips can help investors determine whether an ETF is likely to fail:

1. Use caution when selecting ETF products that track narrow market segments; these products are considered risky and therefore require more evaluation.

2. Examine the ETF's trading volume. Volume is a good indicator of liquidity and investors' interest. If the volume is high, the product is typically more liquid.

3. Look at the assets under management, to determine how much money is being managed and to measure the fund's success.

4. Review the ETF's prospectus, to understand what type you are holding. An ETF is like any other investment company and will deliver a prospectus upon request. The prospectus will provide information such as fees and expenses, investment objectives, investment strategies, risks, performance, pricing and other information.

5. Finally, very new or very small ETFs sometimes trade inefficiently, resulting in wide spreads between their buy and sell prices or failure to track their benchmarks accurately. Wait for an ETF to gather at least $100 million in assets before you invest in it.

#2 and #5 are about the only ones that really matter - crypto's are always a risky investment (at least right now).  The risk/reward ratio is a factor, but trading volume is going to be what drives whether the big money gets involved.  If COIN is only moving $100k per day in volume, none of the big boys are going to bother screwing with it.

Agreed, 2 and 5 are the killers.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Read this and tell me if you believe Bitcoin will be a sound ETF investment for knowledgable players.

Quote
Ways to identify a bad ETF investment

The following four tips can help investors determine whether an ETF is likely to fail:

1. Use caution when selecting ETF products that track narrow market segments; these products are considered risky and therefore require more evaluation.

2. Examine the ETF's trading volume. Volume is a good indicator of liquidity and investors' interest. If the volume is high, the product is typically more liquid.

3. Look at the assets under management, to determine how much money is being managed and to measure the fund's success.

4. Review the ETF's prospectus, to understand what type you are holding. An ETF is like any other investment company and will deliver a prospectus upon request. The prospectus will provide information such as fees and expenses, investment objectives, investment strategies, risks, performance, pricing and other information.

5. Finally, very new or very small ETFs sometimes trade inefficiently, resulting in wide spreads between their buy and sell prices or failure to track their benchmarks accurately. Wait for an ETF to gather at least $100 million in assets before you invest in it.

#2 and #5 are about the only ones that really matter - crypto's are always a risky investment (at least right now).  The risk/reward ratio is a factor, but trading volume is going to be what drives whether the big money gets involved.  If COIN is only moving $100k per day in volume, none of the big boys are going to bother screwing with it.
newbie
Activity: 47
Merit: 0
Read this and tell me if you believe Bitcoin will be a sound ETF investment for knowledgable players.

Quote
Ways to identify a bad ETF investment

The following four tips can help investors determine whether an ETF is likely to fail:

1. Use caution when selecting ETF products that track narrow market segments; these products are considered risky and therefore require more evaluation.

2. Examine the ETF's trading volume. Volume is a good indicator of liquidity and investors' interest. If the volume is high, the product is typically more liquid.

3. Look at the assets under management, to determine how much money is being managed and to measure the fund's success.

4. Review the ETF's prospectus, to understand what type you are holding. An ETF is like any other investment company and will deliver a prospectus upon request. The prospectus will provide information such as fees and expenses, investment objectives, investment strategies, risks, performance, pricing and other information.

5. Finally, very new or very small ETFs sometimes trade inefficiently, resulting in wide spreads between their buy and sell prices or failure to track their benchmarks accurately. Wait for an ETF to gather at least $100 million in assets before you invest in it.

this could describe all of crypto-currency investment....extremely risky. The winklevie are probably(hopefully) targeting people where a mill is a very small percentage of their risk capital. otherwise it will be doomed to fail when small players can't hold it for long and have to sell into the stated inefficient market.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
Read this and tell me if you believe Bitcoin will be a sound ETF investment for knowledgable players.

Quote
Ways to identify a bad ETF investment

The following four tips can help investors determine whether an ETF is likely to fail:

1. Use caution when selecting ETF products that track narrow market segments; these products are considered risky and therefore require more evaluation.

2. Examine the ETF's trading volume. Volume is a good indicator of liquidity and investors' interest. If the volume is high, the product is typically more liquid.

3. Look at the assets under management, to determine how much money is being managed and to measure the fund's success.

4. Review the ETF's prospectus, to understand what type you are holding. An ETF is like any other investment company and will deliver a prospectus upon request. The prospectus will provide information such as fees and expenses, investment objectives, investment strategies, risks, performance, pricing and other information.

5. Finally, very new or very small ETFs sometimes trade inefficiently, resulting in wide spreads between their buy and sell prices or failure to track their benchmarks accurately. Wait for an ETF to gather at least $100 million in assets before you invest in it.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Keep in mind that total daily trading volume across all crypto-exchanges for all crypto-currencies, on a good day, is only around $50 million, maybe less.

That sounds like a lot, but this is so small it's barely measurable in comparison to the NASDAQ - which easily sees $50 BILLION per day.  This ETF makes Bitcoin easily available to where the BIG MONEY is.  For large institutional investors, dropping $1million or more on medium or high-risk investments is nothing - you do not see this kindof money being thrown around very often on the crypto-exchanges right now.


hero member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 783
better everyday ♥
I personally think it will legitimize Bitcoin, because it'll bring the name "Bitcoin" to Joe Blow home investor on his Schwab account, as well as, the institutional big boys.

Having an ETF period means Wall Street will start taking a more serious look at "Bitcoin" as a brand.

Many investors and traders that buy stock in AAPL, MSFT, or NKE etc, are more likely to find out, research, and even utilize their products and services.

This would be a major win-win for BTC, especially if the ETF takes off after launch.
legendary
Activity: 1762
Merit: 1011
It will blow the lid off btc, send it to the moon. I can see it legitimizing crypto for many who would never consider it before. They have a ton of btc to play with, they will move the price every day.

This won't really legitimize Bitcoin. It's kind of designed for exactly the opposite. This will allow people that don't want to get dirty by holding Bitcoin directly to get in on the action. Like when drug lords invest in a Vegas casino. The casino gets the drug money without having to sell a few kilos of dope.

Investors like to have a few percent of their portfolio in super high risk high yield investments. If their risky investment succeeds it increases their bottom line a great deal. If it fails it doesn't drop their bottom line by very much. Buying riskier assets with a low correlation with each other is the classic diversification strategy. Bitcoin also acts like an inverse preformer which could allow hedging of less risky investments. Hedges aren't really legitimate investments. They are more like casino dice rolls that you're gambling will pay off if everything else in your portfolio tanks.

Sounds like you don't follow the industry, then. Whether you like it or not, it will legitimize Bitcoin in an area where there is lots of money ready to move in.
I would agree with QA. It would allow more people to invest in and own bitcoin however it would probably actually slow adoption because people would have difficulty getting their COIN into actually spendable bitcoin

There will always be a price that will pair sellers with buyers who want to actually spend them.
full member
Activity: 139
Merit: 100
When an investor buys 5 shares, the fund has to buy one bitcoin.  But where will the fund go to buy the bitcoin--from the open market, or from the twins?

It's a bit more complicated than that. The fund already has about 200.000 BTC - the ones the twins have. Based on that, the fund will sell shares, so the twins will essentially cash out on their BTC. However, this by itself will not depress the BTC price, since it is not equivalent to dumping 200k BTC on the market.

When an investor buys shares, the fund doesn't have to buy BTC - it already has them. The fund just gets dollars from the investor, who now owns shares. (Theoretically, he owns BTC, but can redeem them only at multiples of 50k shares.)

The only case when the fund will have to buy BTC is if the public is buying ETF shares faster than it is buying BTC. Then the fund will have to create shares, sell them and buy BTC with the proceedings, in order to get the prices of BTC and the shares back in sync. Since the difference in demand (of shares and BTC) is unlikely to be large for significant periods of time, these operations will be relatively small. But, yes, in such cases the fund will have to buy BTC on the open market.

Quote
If the fund buys bitcoins from the open market, then it should have a very positive influence on the dollar equivalent value of bitcoin, which we'll all enjoy.

Only while the public is buying ETF shares faster than it is buying BTC, and only until the difference in demand is brought back into equilibrium. Do not expect a moonshot because of the fund's operations, and do not forget that it will act in reverse too (if demand for the shares is lower than demand for BTC, the fund will have to dump some BTC on the market, suppressing the price of BTC).

The prositive effect of the fund will be different - it will bring more liquidity to the market (more buyers and sellers) and will reduce the volatility a bit (and will probably reduce the price differences between the different exchanges).
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
I'm really quite sane!
It will blow the lid off btc, send it to the moon. I can see it legitimizing crypto for many who would never consider it before. They have a ton of btc to play with, they will move the price every day.

This won't really legitimize Bitcoin. It's kind of designed for exactly the opposite. This will allow people that don't want to get dirty by holding Bitcoin directly to get in on the action. Like when drug lords invest in a Vegas casino. The casino gets the drug money without having to sell a few kilos of dope.

Investors like to have a few percent of their portfolio in super high risk high yield investments. If their risky investment succeeds it increases their bottom line a great deal. If it fails it doesn't drop their bottom line by very much. Buying riskier assets with a low correlation with each other is the classic diversification strategy. Bitcoin also acts like an inverse preformer which could allow hedging of less risky investments. Hedges aren't really legitimate investments. They are more like casino dice rolls that you're gambling will pay off if everything else in your portfolio tanks.

Sounds like you don't follow the industry, then. Whether you like it or not, it will legitimize Bitcoin in an area where there is lots of money ready to move in.
I would agree with QA. It would allow more people to invest in and own bitcoin however it would probably actually slow adoption because people would have difficulty getting their COIN into actually spendable bitcoin
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