Topic: Winklevoss ETF update, what does this mean? - page 5. (Read 9515 times)
Pretty sure with owning 1% of all BTC they watch everything BTC related very closely including forums, part of the value is the current network.
Are the WV twins actually registered on Bitcointalk? 
As far as i know they aren't, atleast they never signed message with their addy. 
Are the WV twins actually registered on Bitcointalk?
What if twins' coins were hacked? This is the single biggest risk that needs to be addressed 
I would hope that the SEC would require that they've acquired some sort of insurance against losses in order to get approval. Anyone that considers investing in their ETF certainly should verify whether or not they are insured against such theft when determining their risk exposure.
Banks can insure fiat money backed assets, in worst case scenario they just print some money to pay the insurance, it will be ordered. But for bitcoin, no insurance company can provide such insurance.
Because, they can't collect the evidence of the theft. Seeing bitcoin being sent from one address to another on blockchain does not prove anything. And to make things worse, since you can not create bitcoin out of thin air like you do with fiat money, there is no lender of last resort, eventually the loss will be covered purely by the insurance company, and its investors. And I suppose no investors dare to provide such an insurance for bitcoin
you cant be serious, the same is true for gold and all other real assets in the world which can be insured easily
that lender of last resort is a criminal organization that makes money by counterfeiting and pays the government to force people to accept it; it is a bad thing that fiat can be created from thin air
this bail-outing leads to bubbles too, the money from the 2008 bailouts is still in the system
now insured BTC would have to be procured on the open market, no bubble, no devaluation...no problem
Unfortunately that's the nature of a centralized organization: When it becomes too big to fail, it will be bailed out by government. And the mindset behind a ETF is exactly centralized organization
There is no law currently protect you from bitcoin theft, since it is so difficult to prove that it is not you but the hacker did the transaction. Just like MTGOX case, most possibly it is an insider job, but you might never find out the truth
I had planned to open an insurance service for bitcoin, then I realized that every customer will just claim that their coins were stolen and this service will go broke from day one. Do you have a better idea?
The security is also going to be a larger of the fund's expenses
It shouldn't be large in the absolute sense, though. Securing a bunch of USB drives or paper wallets or whatever is much easier and cheaper than securing tons of gold - and GLD isn't that expensive (0.4%, if I remember correctly, but I might be wrong; haven't checked that in a while).
Some of it is speculation, but it's not my speculation. I've been reading and listening to a fair number of people for several months and have come to respect them.
You've been listening to the wrong people. Don't, or you'll lose money.
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And it's not groundless. They cite specific reasons for the positions they hold.
These "reasons" are just opinions. Often there is a hidden agenda (these people are trying to sell you gold or have a vested interest in talking up gold), but most of the time they are just the result of ignorance and stupidity. Yes, even when their reasoning sounds plausible and informed.
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I know nothing about commodities trading
Then educate yourself instead of blindly trusting others.
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but one thing I hear over and over again is that someone is shorting gold and silver on the commodities market with such extremely large contracts that they overwhelm the market.
Yes, you can manipulate a thin market (silver more so than gold) with deep pockets. However, you must realize that
1) Futures trading is a zero-sum game (unlike stock trading which has influxes due to stock issuance, mergers, dividends, and so on). If somebody sells a large number of short contracts, that might well depress the price - but later down the line, when the contracts expire, he will have to buy them back, thus similarly applying upward pressure on the price. (Theoretically, he could also deliver the commodity, but almost nobody does that. Less than 2%, as far as I remember.) You cannot continuously manipulate the market down by selling short contracts, because you will go bankrupt.
2) Manipulation is real. However, it occurs in both directions. When the price spikes, this can be the result of manipulation too - with somebody trying to make a lot of money by unloading inventory to the johnny-come-lately fools.
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Gold should never be in backwardation because gold is money yet has no debasement risk.
Debasement risk has nothing to do with it. It's all about supply and demand and time preference. A commodity is in backwardation when the market participants perceive that there are future shortages risks. Note - the market participants don't have to be right. They only have to think so as a whole.
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But they say gold is frequently in backwardation, not contango as it should be.
Actually, that's a relatively recent phenomenon and it usually doesn't last long. Other commodities also occasionally enter backwardation - for instance, oil did so recently, if I remember correctly.
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This means knowledgeable people are fearful that there will be no gold available in the future so they're willing to pay more to get it right now.
Correct, and this is all that it means. It doesn't mean that these people are right. It only means that there are enough of them who think that they are right.
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You dismiss the German gold incident, but the fact that the Germans decided to drop their demand has little to do with gold and everything to do with politics. The fact remains, they asked us to return their gold and we said we couldn't. Couldn't.
No, you didn't say that. You gave them a timetable for fulfilling their request. Many people think that the time given was unreasonably long, but most people (me and you included) simply do not know the facts behind it.
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They can drive the price down with commodities shorting, which dries up most demand, but there MUST be some actual physical gold for sale to handle the remaining demand or the manipulation would fall apart.
No disagreement here. And, the fact that nothing has "fallen apart" yet (I've been hearing screams of "gold manipulation" since the 80s) proves that the gold is really there. In fact, it has been slowly but steadily flowing to the East (mostly China and India).
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Saying "total ignoramus" reveals emotion.
That's because I'm really fed up with the "gold manipulation" conspiracy theorists. They have caused more financial losses to the people who have listened to their garbage than if there were actual dark conspiracy involved.
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James Turk and John Rubino
Two well-known gold promoters.
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western central banks, including the Fed, are leasing gold to bullion banks, "which sell the gold on the open market."
Of course they are. Gold is a dead asset - it bears no return. So, they are trying to make some money by leasing it. Those who get it under lease, do whatever they want with it, but they must return it (plus rent). Yes, they can sell it and suppress the price - but eventually they will have to buy it, supporting the price. Sure, they can make a bad trade and go bust - but it hasn't happened yet, so I guess they know more about gold trading than you or the two gold promoters mentioned above.
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If just three countries bought more gold than was mined in 2013, where did the gold come from to satisfy all the world's other buyers?
From the sellers, of course, whoever they were. As I said, in the past decade and a half, physical gold has been slowly but steadily flowing from the West to the East. Not to mention that "gold mined" is just some minuscule quantity, relatively speaking. Less than 1.5% of the available supply. All gold mines in the world can shut down for 20-50 years (depending on how you count) and there will still be enough supply to satisfy the demand for all this time.
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Some came from GLD, which was looted by the bullion banks.
Ignorant nonsense, groundless speculation, or blatant lies - take your pick.
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Most of that metal was shipped to Swiss refiners, which turned the ETF's 400oz bars into 1kilo bars (China's preferred size) ...
Sigh...
1) Where do you expect it to be shipped?! To Johnny's Pawn Shop?! Or course it will be shipped to the well-established refineries.
2) ETF, just like all the Western commodities exchanges, deals only with 400-ounce LBMA good delivery bars. Any "official" Western gold - no matter whether it comes from the ETF holdings, from Fort Knox, or from some London-based bullion dealer will be in this form. So, of course this is what will have to be refined into the Chinese-preferred sizes.
3) As I already explained, GLD has to sell (and buy!) physical gold (and ETF shares!) in order to function. When it sells physical gold, somebody has to buy it. It is perfectly possible that this "somebody" then converts it into Chinese-size bars and imports it to China. That's his business. He bought the gold, paid for it and can do whatever he damn pleases with it. So what? How does it "prove" that GLD doesn't have any gold?!
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Are James Turk and John Rubino "total ignoramuses"?
They are biased gold promoters with an agenda who are misrepresenting the facts by giving their followers only one part of the story.
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You work for a big bank or the Fed or Treasury Dept. or somewhere else in the cartel and you are paid to tamp down anything that could reveal truth.
LOL. My name is Vesselin Bontchev. Google me - I used to be somewhat famous. I currently work in the academia. The Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, to be precise. My field of expertise is computer viruses and computer security in general. If you doubt that I am this person, I could sign a statement with a PGP key which is widely known. Long story short, I am not even American and of course I don't work in any US institution. Do have, however, some education in the field of economy and finance and have traded various markets for a couple of decades. Non-professionally, of course.
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Or you're not paid, but feel emotionally connected to the need to keep the dollar supreme regardless of the truth.
I tend to get emotionally agitated when faced with stupidity and ignorance.
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You have a great deal of wealth tied up in GLD or another PM ETF and you feel trapped and you protect yourself by denial and you lash out at anyone who reveals the truth of your desperate situation.
Wrong. I have a small amount of wealth parked in physical gold, mostly for diversification, portfolio stability and financial insurance purposes. Bought long time ago, when the price was around $600 and am not selling, no matter where the price goes. I bought it not as speculation (and not as an investment, of course - you can't invest in gold) but as an expenditure for a particular purpose.
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You thought you were an expert who knew more than almost anyone else
I am an expert and know more than almost anyone else in my field of expertise.
I am not saying that you are wrong, but why would they need to have the gold to track the price?
I already explained in another post how a tracking ETF works. If people are buying the underlying commodity (gold, bitcoin, whatever) faster than they are buying the ETF shares (it doesn't matter which way the price of the commodity is going, but it usually happens when it is going up), the ETF custodian must sell the commodity (suppressing its price) and use the money from the proceedings to buy ETF shares (boosing their price) and to destroy them. This brings the two (shares and commodity) back in equilibrium.
But, in order to sell that commodity, you must have it in the first place. If you don't, you can't sell it, you can't re-establish the equilibrium and the ETF will fail to track the price of the commodity.
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If I understand, what you are trying to say, then they have to buy and sell it them self to see the price. Couldn't they just look it up else where?
No. They don't have to buy and sell in order to "see" the price. They have to do it in order to influence the prices of the ETF shares and of the commodity it is tracking (prices that have diverged, due to the difference in demand), in order to bring them back in sync.
What if twins' coins were hacked? This is the single biggest risk that needs to be addressed
I would hope that the SEC would require that they've acquired some sort of insurance against losses in order to get approval. Anyone that considers investing in their ETF certainly should verify whether or not they are insured against such theft when determining their risk exposure.
I do think they could potentially be liable in the event that someone did hack their wallet and was able to steal the private keys that controls the bitcoin held by the ETF
Does it mean they are just short of money or have they simply lost trust in bitcoin? Hopefully it's the first point. I mean initially they were very bullish about btc capturing all the credit card market shares. Something like they envisioned the price of per btc to be worth 32k someday.
What if twins' coins were hacked? This is the single biggest risk that needs to be addressed
I would hope that the SEC would require that they've acquired some sort of insurance against losses in order to get approval. Anyone that considers investing in their ETF certainly should verify whether or not they are insured against such theft when determining their risk exposure.
Banks can insure fiat money backed assets, in worst case scenario they just print some money to pay the insurance, it will be ordered. But for bitcoin, no insurance company can provide such insurance.
Because, they can collect the evidence of the theft. Seeing bitcoin being sent from one address to another on blockchain does not prove anything. And to make things worse, since you can not create bitcoin out of thin air like you do with fiat money, there is no lender of last resort, eventually the loss will be covered purely by the insurance company, and its investors. And I suppose no investors dare to provide such an insurance for bitcoin
you cant be serious, the same is true for gold and all other real assets in the world which can be insured easily
that lender of last resort is a criminal organization that makes money by counterfeiting and pays the government to force people to accept it; it is a bad thing that fiat can be created from thin air
this bail-outing leads to bubbles too, the money from the 2008 bailouts is still in the system
now insured BTC would have to be procured on the open market, no bubble, no devaluation...no problem
What if twins' coins were hacked? This is the single biggest risk that needs to be addressed
I would hope that the SEC would require that they've acquired some sort of insurance against losses in order to get approval. Anyone that considers investing in their ETF certainly should verify whether or not they are insured against such theft when determining their risk exposure.
Banks can insure fiat money backed assets, in worst case scenario they just print some money to pay the insurance, it will be ordered. But for bitcoin, no insurance company can provide such insurance.
Because, they can't collect the evidence of the theft. Seeing bitcoin being sent from one address to another on blockchain does not prove anything. And to make things worse, since you can not create bitcoin out of thin air like you do with fiat money, there is no lender of last resort, eventually the loss will be covered purely by the insurance company, and its investors. And I suppose no investors dare to provide such an insurance for bitcoin
So when is this bloody ETF gonna launch? 2015? 2016? Anyone got a crystal ball? Lol
I asked my magic 8 ball if the ETF would be launched in 2015 and the reply I got was:
YES!
Let's see what happens!
So when is this bloody ETF gonna launch? 2015? 2016? Anyone got a crystal ball? Lol
You see, that's what I dont get. I seen a bunch of hero and legendary members on the forum as of late bashing btc, calling for lower lows and all around turning their back on btc. I'm not sure if this is maybe because they were early adopters, who sold out for major profits early on ($1-$50)... then got trapped on the last bull run and have watched all them profits fade away or maybe its something else. Who knows?
But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined..
#ToThemoon
But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined..
#ToThemoon
Hero and even Legendary members don't necessarily need to be around for that long, really! A lot of them came with the first bubble of 2013, I guess. So they don't necessarily have profited from it, maybe they didn't anticipate and thus missed the second bubble of 2013 and now try to recoup their losses because they bought at the top...
yeah I hear that.. But most of the ones who caught my eye were indeed oltimers. Makes no difference anyway as bitcoin is gonna moon and mars and all that good stuff....
Most of us will be talking in 20-30-40-50 years and telling people where we were when btc hit 1k 10K 25K 50K ect..
Just like we all remember where we were when we first heard about sep 11.
That would be awesome... It really sometimes is hard to keep faith in BTC, but I'm determined to do so and ride this train to its final destination, of which I am convinced, is the moon
I'll make sure to have a cold glass of bubbly waiting for you! On me!
#MoonBound
No, it means you guys should learn to edit. We can all scroll. You don't need to include the whole thread in every post.
And that;s the beauty of a free world.. I can choose to quote or not!
#VivaLaBTC
You see, that's what I dont get. I seen a bunch of hero and legendary members on the forum as of late bashing btc, calling for lower lows and all around turning their back on btc. I'm not sure if this is maybe because they were early adopters, who sold out for major profits early on ($1-$50)... then got trapped on the last bull run and have watched all them profits fade away or maybe its something else. Who knows?
But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined..
#ToThemoon
But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined..
#ToThemoon
Hero and even Legendary members don't necessarily need to be around for that long, really! A lot of them came with the first bubble of 2013, I guess. So they don't necessarily have profited from it, maybe they didn't anticipate and thus missed the second bubble of 2013 and now try to recoup their losses because they bought at the top...
yeah I hear that.. But most of the ones who caught my eye were indeed oltimers. Makes no difference anyway as bitcoin is gonna moon and mars and all that good stuff....
Most of us will be talking in 20-30-40-50 years and telling people where we were when btc hit 1k 10K 25K 50K ect..
Just like we all remember where we were when we first heard about sep 11.
That would be awesome... It really sometimes is hard to keep faith in BTC, but I'm determined to do so and ride this train to its final destination, of which I am convinced, is the moon
No, it means you guys should learn to edit. We can all scroll. You don't need to include the whole thread in every post.
You see, that's what I dont get. I seen a bunch of hero and legendary members on the forum as of late bashing btc, calling for lower lows and all around turning their back on btc. I'm not sure if this is maybe because they were early adopters, who sold out for major profits early on ($1-$50)... then got trapped on the last bull run and have watched all them profits fade away or maybe its something else. Who knows?
But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined..
#ToThemoon
But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined..
#ToThemoon
Hero and even Legendary members don't necessarily need to be around for that long, really! A lot of them came with the first bubble of 2013, I guess. So they don't necessarily have profited from it, maybe they didn't anticipate and thus missed the second bubble of 2013 and now try to recoup their losses because they bought at the top...
yeah I hear that.. But most of the ones who caught my eye were indeed oltimers. Makes no difference anyway as bitcoin is gonna moon and mars and all that good stuff....
Most of us will be talking in 20-30-40-50 years and telling people where we were when btc hit 1k 10K 25K 50K ect..
Just like we all remember where we were when we first heard about sep 11.
You see, that's what I dont get. I seen a bunch of hero and legendary members on the forum as of late bashing btc, calling for lower lows and all around turning their back on btc. I'm not sure if this is maybe because they were early adopters, who sold out for major profits early on ($1-$50)... then got trapped on the last bull run and have watched all them profits fade away or maybe its something else. Who knows?
But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined..
#ToThemoon
But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined..
#ToThemoon
Hero and even Legendary members don't necessarily need to be around for that long, really! A lot of them came with the first bubble of 2013, I guess. So they don't necessarily have profited from it, maybe they didn't anticipate and thus missed the second bubble of 2013 and now try to recoup their losses because they bought at the top...
It means that the next bull run is about to commence. The nasdaq sees trillions of dollars in volume yearly. Just dec 31st alone saw 58B traded on the nasdaq for the DAY!!!!
With that kind of liquidity and eager investors to dabble in btc were sure to see some serious gains in 2015.
#VivaLaBTC
With that kind of liquidity and eager investors to dabble in btc were sure to see some serious gains in 2015.
#VivaLaBTC
What if the ETF isn't going to be approved? What about the BTC the twins already prepared for it? People who bought BTC in anticipation of the fund are going to dump their stash on the market... We could go much lower then...
Doomsday scenarios. I'll bet every bitcoin I own that it will go ahead as planned. No reason not to.. The winkvoss have one of the best if not the best ETF lawyer in the country. They have enough capital to float them through any bureaucratic red tape they may find themselves dealing with.
Trust me.... The ETF will be here in 2015, and the bull run will get underway.
Have you given up on altcoins Bob (EMC2 & LTC)? I would think the spike in BTC price coming from an ETF wouldn't be enough profit fast enough for you.
I never really gave up on LTC, although I have not followed the market for quite some time. I hold a few stacks and maybe one day they'll be worth $40 again or even more.. As for alts.. I never liked them.. I only saw them as a vehicle to acquire more BTC and Fiat. As for the ETF and btc swings.. I couldn't care less these days.. I have a 10 and 20 year plan with btc put away that I bought when they were in the low double digits. I have fiat and btc to live off of and I make more btc daily thanks to the altmarkets.
Im a long term HODLING bull when it comes to btc.... I just think that the ETF will indeed start the next bullrun
I hope your right. It sure would be nice to have a big fat paycheck instead of all the doom and gloom we've had lately.
You see, that's what I dont get. I seen a bunch of hero and legendary members on the forum as of late bashing btc, calling for lower lows and all around turning their back on btc. I'm not sure if this is maybe because they were early adopters, who sold out for major profits early on ($1-$50)... then got trapped on the last bull run and have watched all them profits fade away or maybe its something else. Who knows?
But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined..
#ToThemoon
Yeah but it's hard to get fucked for years and not begin hating on the jar of vasoline even if it is protecting your ass.
May all your btc dreams come true. How have you been getting fuck for years with btc??? Only way I can think of is you're the worst trader on the planet!
:p
What's the deal?
The trading I've done well with but I fell for a few of the scams and thefts because they were being pitched by people I thought were reputable. The only ones that really shocked me were Bitcoinica and GLBSE. I was sure they were legit. Oh well, tomorrow is a new day right?
Sorry to hear that man. But yes tomorrow is a new day. Good luck man.. i'm sure you'll figure out some way to make your own moves and get on top.
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