I once researched that strategy and tested it lightly. The problem is always that you then run up against the limits so that you cannot continue with your strategy?
What do you mean? AFAIK we can set the limit of rolls on wolfbet, if you don't want any limit rolls, just simply change the limit roll by 0 and it will run until either you stop it manually, reached stop loss/win, or your bankroll busted.He means that even though the probability of going bust is very low compared to the rest of the outcomes combined, which are all successes, you make so little profit from each bet that the chances of hitting the bust probability grow significantly larger. It's not a negligible probability anymore, there's a plausible chance that you'll lose your entire bankroll.
Increasing your EV by multiplying your lost wagers by 100%+x% (because you will not make any profit with a 100% multiplier no matter how many losses are sustained in a row, except for the tiny wager you first used) increases that probability exponentially, the higher you make x.
DarkStar did a really good writeup about it in this thread which I'll quote the relevant parts below:
~snip
Martingale 'forces' players to wager more, so casinos get a lot more EV out of their wagering.A player trying to win 10% profit is very likely going to be wagering more from martingale than they are with a single 1.1x, so their odds of winning are lower. (edit: this might be incorrect and dependent on a few variables. I can say that running 2x martingale with a lower stake will always be worse than just betting 10% of your bankroll on 2x from an EV standpoint). That's why the most optimal way to gamble is to use smaller bets with a high multiplier. dooglus explains this pretty simply:
Martingale 'forces' players to wager more, so casinos get a lot more EV out of their wagering.
I think the optimal strategy is the one which expects to risk the least in total, since you expect to lose 1% of everything you risk.
To win 1 BTC betting with a 1.2x multiplier you need to risk at least 5 BTC, and you can expect to lose at least 5 times as much as a simple all-in with 2x multiplier (since that way you only risk 1 BTC in total).
To win 1 BTC betting with a 1.2x multiplier you need to risk at least 5 BTC, and you can expect to lose at least 5 times as much as a simple all-in with 2x multiplier (since that way you only risk 1 BTC in total).
