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Topic: World War 2, part (b) - page 2. (Read 8277 times)

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 19, 2014, 03:23:40 PM
#72

Uh. No. Both blood and language mixed during the viking invasion. The original people, and their language, are long gone. The current brits are a mix of vikings and those who lived there originally, among others. The original people are gone and will never return.

And a timeline for "hope" of a thousand years is not precisely helpful to those of us living in the present...

Sorry your most definately wrong there Ibian, the Gene pool research was comprehensive and definitive (Professor Jobling from Leeds University I believe).  It was a study aimed at understanding the effects of fresh gene pools on established ones, and it basically showed that unless the new gene pool built and maintained a critical percentage (Cannot remember the exact figure, but I think it was about 30%) of the old gene pool, that the old gene pool would reassert itself and gradually dilute out the new gene pool over time. Hence my statement that Brits are Brits not Viking muts is true! Language is of course intermixable, and to some extent we are all language muts.

Edit: Quote from his research: "Jobling found little evidence that mtDNA sequences characteristic of Norwegian populations were present in either the medieval or modern group of British men"
Don't really care to discuss it, but just noting that it was a Danish led invasion. Why would norwegians matter. They were there, but not as any kind of majority. It's the entire scandinavian people you need to look at, but mostly danes. Also a link to the study would be nice.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
March 19, 2014, 01:33:27 PM
#71

Uh. No. Both blood and language mixed during the viking invasion. The original people, and their language, are long gone. The current brits are a mix of vikings and those who lived there originally, among others. The original people are gone and will never return.

And a timeline for "hope" of a thousand years is not precisely helpful to those of us living in the present...

Sorry your most definately wrong there Ibian, the Gene pool research was comprehensive and definitive (Professor Jobling from Leeds University I believe).  It was a study aimed at understanding the effects of fresh gene pools on established ones, and it basically showed that unless the new gene pool built and maintained a critical percentage (Cannot remember the exact figure, but I think it was about 30%) of the old gene pool, that the old gene pool would reassert itself and gradually dilute out the new gene pool over time. Hence my statement that Brits are Brits not Viking muts is true! Language is of course intermixable, and to some extent we are all language muts.

Edit: Quote from his research: "Jobling found little evidence that mtDNA sequences characteristic of Norwegian populations were present in either the medieval or modern group of British men"
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
March 19, 2014, 08:23:48 AM
#70

This make no geo political sense.

Russia and China are far from friends, it would be much better to be friendly with Russia to have China contained.

Inmho, there is enough intercine issues in russia, china and likely US to keep them all looking over their shoulders.

Go and take another look at what is going on. Take your time over it and come back and have another go at making a wise statement on the matter. Russia may not be great m8s with China but Russia are their own sovereign nation, Russia will use her political weight to suit her own independent objectives, and that is clearly no good to the US. Just look at Syria. If not for Russia, Syria would be another Libya or Iraq by now. Russia is a major spanner in the works for the US/Israeli foreign policy agenda. Russia needs to be brought to heel.

The US thought they could simply fund a Ukrainian insurrection against the government there, replace it with an ultra anti-Russian, pro EU/NATO regime, and start setting up shop there. They thought they could, but it turns out they couldn't....and now they are banning Mr Putin's Netflix account or whatever.
legendary
Activity: 2660
Merit: 1023
March 19, 2014, 07:22:46 AM
#69
Putin is in a fight for his ego.  His propaganda reveals his self-image.  To maintain his identity, he must not back down, must out-game all opponents, and make continual gains.  This is perfectly aligned with his domestic political requirements.  Expanding empire is good for the oligarchs he represents and manages, and good for his popular support.  His most obvious weakness:  Dependence on internal backers, whose interests may change skew to his own.  We have a mafioso in power in Russia.  He's more like Don Corleone than Hitler, but there are similarities to both.

Russian invasion of Ukraine at SOME level will not be tolerated by NATO.  He has seized Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  He has seized Transdneistra.  He has seized Crimea.  If he seizes Ukraine it seems clear he will seize the Baltic States.  Hell, why not Finland?  Why not assimilate Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan?  We've been down this road before.  Poland in WW2 had its borders guaranteed by UK.  Ukraine today had its borders guaranteed by US UK and RU.  If Russia stays in Ukraine, Ukraine will re-arm nuclear.  NATO does not want that, at least not unless Ukraine is both stable and part of NATO.  Putin would rather invade Ukraine entire than invade part and face a nuclear Ukraine in 2 years time.

To say there is nothing the west can do about it seems very questionable to me.  Putin can be removed.  Economic measures can be taken which would beggar Russia, causing him to be deposed.  Military action can be taken to strengthen Ukraine.  Political action can be taken, to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, or offer that as a chip to bargain against Crimea.  In a political game, ground truth is critical.  Putin is motivated to grab as much as he can before coming to the bargaining table.  If he does that badly, there will be copious blood.  The west has strong incentives to stop him before he gains more power, more momentum, and more bargaining chips.  In fact, given his history, it seems clear to me at least that he must be punished.  Some chips must be removed from his kitty, or he will just do it again on another front.


Where are you from and what sort of geopolitical disneyland are you living in?

The US lead West, have been baiting China and Russia for years and will continue to do so. Lately they have been pushing things a little too far and Putin isn't standing for it. All these recent squabbles in Russia's backyard involve muscling in on markets and gaining a strategic foothold right on Russia's doorstep. Can you see why Putin or any other Russian leader (who hasn't sold out to the West) might have a problem with a great big belt of NATO missile bases going up right along their borders? NATO cannot afford to engage Russia in a out and out military conflict. Russia needs to be brought to heel or at least pushed into a strategic and economic stalemate position. The ultimate end goal is to be in a position to crush China, who will grow to be the US's number 1 competitor for world resources and power. A strong Russia stands in the way of a WW3 scenario. For this reason, the Russian bear needs to be driven into it's cage, and held there.

oh and btw, just sit back and watch how Russia annex the Crimea and NATO does fuck all except blow their trumpet and wag their fingers. If the west pushes for sanctions against Russia, then Russia can also badly hurt the West, especially so the EU, and the EU won't like the US pushing for sanctions that will indirectly damage them. The US have pushed the boat out too far on this one, and will have to take a slap in the face with humility, as Russia does whatever it wants.

This make no geo political sense.

Russia and China are far from friends, it would be much better to be friendly with Russia to have China contained.

Inmho, there is enough intercine issues in russia, china and likely US to keep them all looking over their shoulders.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 19, 2014, 06:33:24 AM
#68
e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.
I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

Lol, depends how far west you go! personally I consider this green and pleasent land (England) pretty civilised by world standards. My wife and I did joke though, that perhaps we should invite Ukraine to take Scotlands place in the United Kingdom! (Especially since they seem to speak better English!)
I hear brits are a minority in London now. Mass immigration is a sign of end times. No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.
You may be right there, but one town does not a country make!
In fact I recently heard the Lord Mayor of London refer to it as 'The Capital Of The World', and as a general observation he could be right! London is like unofficial UN, it's where people of the world come to do what we all want to do in peace 'make good business' (Quoting from 3 Kings film there).

There are an awful lot of Russians in London also, and I strongly suspect with the new EU policy negotiations on Russian Visa's now being cancelled, that there will soon be an lot less! I wonder if Putin should be stepping in to protect those poor russians in London whose rights are not being upheld, perhaps russian tanks should role down the mall!

Oh and by the way, you wanted a counter example, the Brit's survived the Viking invasions/displacements, and genetic testing has shown that the original Gene pool re-asserted itself afterwards, or simply put the Viking gene is now almost completely absent from British gene pool again! So there is hope!
Uh. No. Both blood and language mixed during the viking invasion. The original people, and their language, are long gone. The current brits are a mix of vikings and those who lived there originally, among others. The original people are gone and will never return.

And a timeline for "hope" of a thousand years is not precisely helpful to those of us living in the present...
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 19, 2014, 12:52:23 AM
#67
The parallels between Poland 75 years ago and Ukraine today are interesting.

Ibian, I wasn't laughing.  But now I am:

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—In what was described as a major ramping up of sanctions, Secretary of State John Kerry announced on Tuesday that the United States had frozen Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Netflix account, effective immediately.

“Unless and until Mr. Putin calls off the annexation of Crimea, no more ‘House of Cards’ or ‘Orange Is the New Black’ for him,” Mr. Kerry said. “The United States will not stand by and reward the annexation of another sovereign nation with a policy of streaming as usual.”

While all of the sanctions Mr. Kerry announced on Tuesday were Netflix-related, he warned Mr. Putin that “nothing is off the table.”

“I’m sure I don’t need to remind the Russian President that ‘Game of Thrones’ is about to come back for another season,” he said. “As I have said, this thing could get very ugly, very fast.”
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
March 19, 2014, 12:45:54 AM
#66
Basically, Putin inherited a nation in disarray and has put Russia towards superpower status. The West are broke and relatively weak at the moment, and are demonising him in the media (Syria, Pussy Riot, gay rights at Sochi etc.), because a strong Russia is a strong rival. Ukraine is the latest example.

Putin has played his hand in Crimea and Ukraine with the intention of preventing the installation of NATO missile defence systems in Ukraine. The dominant Russian ethnolinguistic nature of Crimea and the referendum ensures that Putin is seen to have acted legitimately in the eyes of much of the international community, despite is isolation that the Western media talk of. Crucially, China have not condemned the annexation of Crimea, and this strengthens any territorial claims China might make in the future within its own sphere of influence (South China Sea). I'm interested to see the extent of the sanctions and how the BRIC nations react. Will more nations start defying the US?

Russia is a regional power, not a superpower. They have no manufacturing base and make money only by selling off natural resources. And there is negative population growth. Thank God Ukraine was not admitted into NATO or we really would be on the brink of WWIII. It won't happen. Expect an outcome similar to what happened in Georgia.
newbie
Activity: 1
Merit: 0
March 19, 2014, 12:32:34 AM
#65
Basically, Putin inherited a nation in disarray and has put Russia towards superpower status. The West are broke and relatively weak at the moment, and are demonising him in the media (Syria, Pussy Riot, gay rights at Sochi etc.), because a strong Russia is a strong rival. Ukraine is the latest example.

Putin has played his hand in Crimea and Ukraine with the intention of preventing the installation of NATO missile defence systems in Ukraine. The dominant Russian ethnolinguistic nature of Crimea and the referendum ensures that Putin is seen to have acted legitimately in the eyes of much of the international community, despite is isolation that the Western media talk of. Crucially, China have not condemned the annexation of Crimea, and this strengthens any territorial claims China might make in the future within its own sphere of influence (South China Sea). I'm interested to see the extent of the sanctions and how the BRIC nations react. Will more nations start defying the US?
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
March 18, 2014, 11:48:00 PM
#64
Putin will not nuke New York. He wouldn't need to to win and he has other options available to him. He's a chess player and he won't risk his king (himself). From western news sources, you wouldn't know it, but he's been losing for years. He may have taken South Osettia and Abkhazia (sp?), but he lost Georgia, Home of Stalin. He's not gaining the Crimea. He's losing half of Ukraine (or more).

All Putin has to do is remind the West of how they supported autonomous regions Like Kossovo in the past and to claim the Crimea is simply another such case of self-determination. Really, the hypocrisy of the West is stunning. I'm a veteran, so I know that American troops will not want to face a real army for the first time in our lifetimes over some Ukrainian shithole. What's the principle at stake? No, the West will arm the Ukranians, let them fight it out on their own and they will likely get slaughtered. Their only way out is to cede The Crimea and Eastern Ukraine to Putin and draw new borders.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
March 18, 2014, 11:44:05 PM
#63
A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?


Why does every conflict end up in a world war? I read these everytime there is a fight... Nothing is smaller than when the mosques in Iran are bombed..iraq iran is the cause of any war nothing else.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
March 18, 2014, 11:37:19 PM
#62
e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.
I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

Lol, depends how far west you go! personally I consider this green and pleasent land (England) pretty civilised by world standards. My wife and I did joke though, that perhaps we should invite Ukraine to take Scotlands place in the United Kingdom! (Especially since they seem to speak better English!)
I hear brits are a minority in London now. Mass immigration is a sign of end times. No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.
You may be right there, but one town does not a country make!
In fact I recently heard the Lord Mayor of London refer to it as 'The Capital Of The World', and as a general observation he could be right! London is like unofficial UN, it's where people of the world come to do what we all want to do in peace 'make good business' (Quoting from 3 Kings film there).

There are an awful lot of Russians in London also, and I strongly suspect with the new EU policy negotiations on Russian Visa's now being cancelled, that there will soon be an lot less! I wonder if Putin should be stepping in to protect those poor russians in London whose rights are not being upheld, perhaps russian tanks should role down the mall!

Oh and by the way, you wanted a counter example, the Brit's survived the Viking invasions/displacements, and genetic testing has shown that the original Gene pool re-asserted itself afterwards, or simply put the Viking gene is now almost completely absent from British gene pool again! So there is hope!
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 18, 2014, 11:28:47 PM
#61
No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.

No culture survives a change of generations either.

The Leninists kept Marxism alive.  In so doing they killed Marxism.  The bishops and councils preserved Orthodoxy through the centuries.  In so doing, they destroyed orthodoxy.  The Khazars saved Judaism from annihilation.  In so doing, they annihilated Judaism.   

Little sense there is, in nostalgia for what you do not have the will to hold today.


You agree, in other words, but exaggerated to such a degree that it loses all meaning and, in fact, becomes something you laugh at. This is not useful.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
March 18, 2014, 11:28:14 PM
#60
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 18, 2014, 11:25:45 PM
#59
No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.

No culture survives a change of generations either.

The Leninists kept Marxism alive.  In so doing they killed Marxism.  The bishops and councils preserved Orthodoxy through the centuries.  In so doing, they destroyed orthodoxy.  The Khazars saved Judaism from annihilation.  In so doing, they annihilated Judaism.   

Little sense there is, in nostalgia for what you do not have the will to hold today.

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 18, 2014, 11:11:33 PM
#58
e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.
I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

Lol, depends how far west you go! personally I consider this green and pleasent land (England) pretty civilised by world standards. My wife and I did joke though, that perhaps we should invite Ukraine to take Scotlands place in the United Kingdom! (Especially since they seem to speak better English!)
I hear brits are a minority in London now. Mass immigration is a sign of end times. No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
March 18, 2014, 11:04:54 PM
#57
I for one have a much simpler view on all of this:

a) The west/NATO will not go anywhere near this, no matter what russia does to crimea or Ukraine, it's simply not worth it now (No offence Ukraine).

b) Western thinking on the degree to which Russia/Putin can gradually be brought into the fold of the trading democratised world has been radically reversed by these actions.

c) We won't cut our nose to spite our face with massive immediate sanctions, simply because Europe is overly dependant on Russian gas, and cannot stomach any tit for tat sanctions with gas (yet).

d) The west in general will implement a much longer term strategy to reduce the energy dependance on russia, THEN switch to the very successfull Regan strategy of breaking them financially with either arms races or sanctions. This is already happening to some degree with massive and accelerating flight of capital and international investment from Russia, Ruble is a broken currency.

e) Third strike! Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

What is with the 'we' and the 'our'? You think the whole population of the West is in this together? You think that the Western established powers, who have long been in a process of baiting Russia and Putin, ever since he put a stop to the mass plunder of Russian resources, give a flying fk about you or your well being? Are you getting any kick backs from any business deals done by tying the Ukrainian economy up with Western finance? Are your investments in the US weapons industry in line for a big dividend pay out if/when Ukraine signs up to get a series of NATO missile bases along it's borders with Russia?

If you are indeed gaining in some way thanks to US/NATO's constant baiting of Russia and China and their direct and indirect meddling within their spheres of influences, bringing the whole world closer and closer to a WW3 scenario; then my apologies, perhaps you do have the slightest clue about wtf is going, and are just a bit of an evil cunt. More likely however, is that you just don't really have much of clue and perhaps you need to take some lessons in geo-politics.

Perhaps Putin doesn't want to be 'brought into the fold of Western democratised world', because that generally means giving up national sovereignty and having your economy and resources exploited by the Western establishment.

On the otherhand, it is at least refreshing to see that you at least recognise that any talk of sanctions was as I previously stated, always going to be nothing more than trumpet blowing and general tough talk, whilst the West walks the walk in the complete opposite direction of any confrontation with Putin, whilst he does what the fuck he wants when it comes to business in his own backyard. 21 travel bans for some Russian officials involved in organising Crimean elections....."oooh, you naughty naughty boys! don't ever do that again or we shall get very very cross indeed!"

Thank fk for Vladimir Putin. The longer he is a thorn in the side of the West the longer it is before the West can start seriously crushing China, which is the end game here and a very very dangerous one at that.

hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
March 18, 2014, 11:03:58 PM
#56
e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.
I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

Lol, depends how far west you go! personally I consider this green and pleasent land (England) pretty civilised by world standards. My wife and I did joke though, that perhaps we should invite Ukraine to take Scotlands place in the United Kingdom! (Especially since they seem to speak better English!)
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 18, 2014, 10:57:18 PM
#55
e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.
I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
March 18, 2014, 10:34:51 PM
#54
I for one have a much simpler view on all of this:

a) The west/NATO will not go anywhere near this, no matter what russia does to crimea or Ukraine, it's simply not worth it now (No offence Ukraine).

b) Western thinking on the degree to which Russia/Putin can gradually be brought into the fold of the trading democratised world has been radically reversed by these actions.

c) We won't cut our nose to spite our face with massive immediate sanctions, simply because Europe is overly dependant on Russian gas, and cannot stomach any tit for tat sanctions with Russian gas (yet!).

d) The west in general will implement a much longer term strategy to reduce the energy dependance on russia, THEN switch to the very successfull Regan strategy of breaking them financially with either arms races or sanctions. This is already happening to some degree with massive and accelerating flight of capital and international investment from Russia. The Ruble is now a broken currency.

e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years (A generations memory) before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
March 17, 2014, 11:44:20 PM
#53
^^^ Indeed , run for the hills , or the bunkers.
No war will happen , and now now at least.
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