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Topic: World War 2, part (b) - page 3. (Read 8277 times)

hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
March 17, 2014, 08:26:31 AM
#52
Khodorkovsky the embezzler? I doubt he'd be much of an improvement.

I don't buy into this concept of overlooking the misdeeds of any nation because 'what the others did was way worse'. The reality is that in recent times the portrayal of Russia and the manner in which the West has engaged with it have been provocative and calculated to say the least. I don't think Putin has handled it too badly thus far.

Ah, but Khodorkovsky was a thief who handed over lots of Russia's natural wealth to wealthy western entities. He was a good thief. He gave us (our masters) their 'fair share' which is perhaps why he is getting a good write up in some western media outlets, certainly the ones that af-newbie is reading anyhow.

I really despair at the still existing level of ignorance and stupidity of the general public when it comes to foreign affairs and policy. Although to be honest, I think the majority of the full retard posts I am reading on here is coming from US based members.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraines-gold-reserves-secretely-flown-out-and-confiscated-by-the-new-york-federal-reserve
I don't know about the credibility of this site - orders to fill? I can't help imagining a crypto backed by gold somewhere, sometime..
I think also the division of ukraine had already been agreed but would require the will of the people, hence the usual, now very tired media circus.

Why would the federal reserve have any former soviet block nation's gold? I can't imagine Joe Stalin approving of that one post WW2.

Edit: Just read it, don't believe it. Classic sensationalist and biased journalistic get out clause. Quoting a third source.

NEWSFLASH! NATO NATIONS WILL NOT TOLERATE CRAZED WAR MONGER PUTIN. USA TO LEAD TASK FORCE TO GO AND KICK PUTIN'S ASS! (according to aminorex, a testosterone fuelled gung-ho forum idiot incapable of informed and rational thought)
hero member
Activity: 708
Merit: 500
March 16, 2014, 07:21:22 PM
#51
http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraines-gold-reserves-secretely-flown-out-and-confiscated-by-the-new-york-federal-reserve
I don't know about the credibility of this site - orders to fill? I can't help imagining a crypto backed by gold somewhere, sometime..
I think also the division of ukraine had already been agreed but would require the will of the people, hence the usual, now very tired media circus.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 16, 2014, 06:35:17 PM
#50
step 3 would be next.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
March 15, 2014, 11:52:53 PM
#49
A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?


If putin nukes new york the us will drop multiple nukes on russia and russia will drop even more nukes on the usa.
The major submarine internet cables would be destroyed and as a result the internet would split in a few large chunks forcing the blockchain to fork.
The value of bitcoin would drop by 99,99% and you wish you had invested in gold.

I think you would first wish you had invested in a bunker.
newbie
Activity: 26
Merit: 0
March 15, 2014, 11:41:29 PM
#48
A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?


If putin nukes new york the us will drop multiple nukes on russia and russia will drop even more nukes on the usa.
The major submarine internet cables would be destroyed and as a result the internet would split in a few large chunks forcing the blockchain to fork.
The value of bitcoin would drop by 99,99% and you wish you had invested in gold.
newbie
Activity: 1
Merit: 0
March 15, 2014, 11:20:34 PM
#47
Khodorkovsky the embezzler? I doubt he'd be much of an improvement.

I don't buy into this concept of overlooking the misdeeds of any nation because 'what the others did was way worse'. The reality is that in recent times the portrayal of Russia and the manner in which the West has engaged with it have been provocative and calculated to say the least. I don't think Putin has handled it too badly thus far.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
March 15, 2014, 11:55:12 AM
#46
What you need is these babies...



EMP & armageddon-proof Cool
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
March 15, 2014, 10:44:22 AM
#45
ARDUINO boards, servo motors, a diverse library of the various open-source software projects available today, and don't forget plenty of scrap electronics of all types.
And stick them all in a metal box.  In case of a continent-scale EMP, you're the man.  A nice solar flare might make you rich.  Very tan perhaps, but rich.

Yeah , put also a few Iphone7S , they might get useful as lanterns after a nuke.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 15, 2014, 10:36:54 AM
#44
ARDUINO boards, servo motors, a diverse library of the various open-source software projects available today, and don't forget plenty of scrap electronics of all types.
And stick them all in a metal box.  In case of a continent-scale EMP, you're the man.  A nice solar flare might make you rich.  Very tan perhaps, but rich.
hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 504
March 14, 2014, 11:07:39 PM
#43
Is there anybody still alive today who remembers when wars were fought between nations, not between banks? So much is tied to this currency war, it's sickening...

I don't even think that either outcome in Ukraine would matter. The world is clearly divided and both sides are dying; the only way to survive is to destroy the other and assimilate whatever resources remain. The fiat system can only "work" when it's globally uncontested, only one group can be allowed to rule. There needs to be zero international accountability for printing money and everybody knows it. The world isn't big enough for 2 big bank cartels...

It doesn't take a PhD to look at current world events and draw the conclusion that WW3 is inevitable. If not today; then another day... It's simply a matter of time, and there is no limit to what these bankers would do to make it happen. There's no doubt in my mind that they would be willing to kill any number of their own innocent countrymen just to show the people an enemy to rally against and prove that war is justified.

Technology changed the world too quickly and it wasn't according to plan. Without the explosive popularity of social media, we would probably be engrossed by global war already. The worst part is that there's not enough desire to prevent it from happening. People don't want transparency, the threat of proving that we've been taken advantage of is harder to pallet then keeping the blinders on without asking too many questions.

We can't even get a copy of Obamas birth certificate to verify his eligibility for Presidency...

Just stock up on non perishable foods and survival gear while you can, ARDUINO boards, servo motors, a diverse library of the various open-source software projects available today, and don't forget plenty of scrap electronics of all types. I think there's a good chance that many of us here would be able to find a use for these things to improve our quality of living when combined in interesting ways...
member
Activity: 63
Merit: 10
March 14, 2014, 10:29:24 PM
#42
But really...
Putin nukes New York and we're concern about bitcoin?

Yeah... it seems most people in this thread live in a bunker.
When I hear about Russian nukes I don't think about bitcoin, I think about flying away from the big cities.

Looking at the map of Europe...where the hell is there a safe spot?
And there won't be too much flying with a war on.


1. Not everyone lives in Europe (I don't)
2. In case you're not aware, it is possible to leave Europe (look at a map)
3. I didn't mean flying literally (even though that would be the best way to flee)
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
March 14, 2014, 10:11:23 PM
#41
I think it's a matter of, what is possible?

The US can't afford a major war. EU doesn't have enough military might for any one country or even a small group of them to throw their weight around. China is unlikely to strike out but too big to take over. Any one of the big players (US, China, Russia) makes a move and they become vulnerable to at least one of the others.

It's a stalemate with each region doing whatever it wants within its own borders and lots of huffing and puffing across phone lines and through emails.

Just remember, we were always at war with Eurasia.

You should revise that.
Just because Europe is at peace right now , it doesn't mean it's defenseless.


Rank      Country   Spending ($)[4][5]    % of GDP   Year of data
—      World total   1,756,000,000,000   2.5%   2012
—   NATO   NATO   990,932,000,000   2.5%   2012
1   United States   United States   682,478,000,000   4.4%   2012
—   European Union   European Union   274,213,000,000   1.7%   2012
2   China   People's Republic of China   166,107,000,000   2.1%   2012
3   Russia   Russia                    90,749,000,000   4.4%   2012

But really...
Putin nukes New York and we're concern about bitcoin?
It's not strictly a matter of how many guns we have. If that was the case the US would just stomp all over the world. Armies are funded by national economies, and they are crumbling. We simply can not afford to go to war, any of us. Not even if europe was one unit, which is far from the case.

Nobody can afford a full war and keep everything as usual at home.
But that's now how war is being fought. Changes will be made immediately and budgets won't be the same.

Of course numbers don't matter but let's not forget on what those money are spent.
Russia has a mandatory conscription for 12 months , insane amounts of money spent or recruits that won't make a difference in a real war.
I know what kind of soldiers this mandatory conscription makes (my country had this too) and how useless and money waster that is.

My opinion is that there will be no winner but the loser will be Russia.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
March 14, 2014, 10:04:26 PM
#40
I think it's a matter of, what is possible?

The US can't afford a major war. EU doesn't have enough military might for any one country or even a small group of them to throw their weight around. China is unlikely to strike out but too big to take over. Any one of the big players (US, China, Russia) makes a move and they become vulnerable to at least one of the others.

It's a stalemate with each region doing whatever it wants within its own borders and lots of huffing and puffing across phone lines and through emails.

Just remember, we were always at war with Eurasia.

You should revise that.
Just because Europe is at peace right now , it doesn't mean it's defenseless.


Rank      Country   Spending ($)[4][5]    % of GDP   Year of data
—      World total   1,756,000,000,000   2.5%   2012
—   NATO   NATO   990,932,000,000   2.5%   2012
1   United States   United States   682,478,000,000   4.4%   2012
—   European Union   European Union   274,213,000,000   1.7%   2012
2   China   People's Republic of China   166,107,000,000   2.1%   2012
3   Russia   Russia                    90,749,000,000   4.4%   2012

But really...
Putin nukes New York and we're concern about bitcoin?
It's not strictly a matter of how many guns we have. If that was the case the US would just stomp all over the world. Armies, and more importantly active armies, are funded by national economies, and they are crumbling. We simply can not afford to go to war, any of us. Not even if europe was one unit, which is far from the case.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
March 14, 2014, 10:02:51 PM
#39
But really...
Putin nukes New York and we're concern about bitcoin?

Yeah... it seems most people in this thread live in a bunker.
When I hear about Russian nukes I don't think about bitcoin, I think about flying away from the big cities.

Looking at the map of Europe...where the hell is there a safe spot?
And there won't be too much flying with a war on.
member
Activity: 63
Merit: 10
March 14, 2014, 09:56:02 PM
#38
But really...
Putin nukes New York and we're concern about bitcoin?

Yeah... it seems most people in this thread live in a bunker.
When I hear about Russian nukes I don't think about bitcoin, I think about flying away from the big cities.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
March 14, 2014, 09:45:44 PM
#37
I think it's a matter of, what is possible?

The US can't afford a major war. EU doesn't have enough military might for any one country or even a small group of them to throw their weight around. China is unlikely to strike out but too big to take over. Any one of the big players (US, China, Russia) makes a move and they become vulnerable to at least one of the others.

It's a stalemate with each region doing whatever it wants within its own borders and lots of huffing and puffing across phone lines and through emails.

Just remember, we were always at war with Eurasia.

You should revise that.
Just because Europe is at peace right now , it doesn't mean it's defenseless.


Rank      Country   Spending ($)[4][5]    % of GDP   Year of data
—      World total   1,756,000,000,000   2.5%   2012
—   NATO   NATO   990,932,000,000   2.5%   2012
1   United States   United States   682,478,000,000   4.4%   2012
—   European Union   European Union   274,213,000,000   1.7%   2012
2   China   People's Republic of China   166,107,000,000   2.1%   2012
3   Russia   Russia                    90,749,000,000   4.4%   2012

But really...
Putin nukes New York and we're concern about bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 14, 2014, 09:32:35 PM
#36
give up Crimea+, NATO uses resulting fear to arm the baltics and draw them stongly into EU/US sphere of influence. for a small concession west gains the rest of the eastern bloc?

Only Belarus is really "eastern bloc", which now means dictatorships allied to Russia, I guess.  Moving far east, Uzbekistan is similar (even more brutal, semi-Islamic).  I dunno about Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, but Kyrgyzstan seems very tight with the U.S.  None of these are actually Putin's to give, and nobody is willing to pay the price to take them, I think, regardless of current proprietorship.

Geographically, Kaliningrad is interesting.  Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic.  I can see why Lithuania is scared.

As for Crimea, the referendum is a joke and it is in fact under effective Russian military occupation, but honestly, it is like 90% ethnolinguistically Russian, and doesn't belong in Ukraine.  I am sure the west would give Putin Crimea, if they can get the Ukraine government to play along, which they almost certainly can, and there were a proper referendum, with actual meaningful choices on it.  The question in my mind is whether Putin can be kept from invading eastern Ukraine further, meaning, with armored, not just spetznaz and mercenaries.  That's when the serious conflict escalation begins.




legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
March 14, 2014, 07:44:29 PM
#35
I still hold out some hope that this thread can lead to meaningful scenario analysis.  Well, it's dying fast.

I think Russia will take the Crimea and nothing will be done about it. When the Russian bear flexes its military strength, the US isn't silly enough to get involved (besides atm it cannot afford another conflict). See Czech and Afghanistan for precedence. What the US can and has done is be vocal in its condemnation, and quite notably, fund oppostion groups in said countries (see mujahadeen). US / Russia fight conflicts by proxy, not directly.

What the US also does is threaten economically - financial warfare. Maybe they can ban trades with russian companies / banks etc, freeze accounts. But this is unlikely to be effective for the same concept that any military action would not - MAD. Militarily, whoever gets first mover nuke advantage just cops the second nuke loss in return. Both US & Russia have enough missiles to wipe each other off the map but to do it they sacrifice themselves, hence MAD.

MAD in a financial sense works 'well' against smaller countries like Brazil, Iran etc but wont wash with a superpower. Russia can dump treasuries, refuse to pay in dollar denominated amounts etc.

So what will this eventually mean?

Frightened stock markets, rise in the gold price. If and when btc shakes off the Gox crap, I believe it will also trend higher.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1001
March 14, 2014, 06:04:52 PM
#34
Usually we take the inflationary scenario as bullish for BTC.  You're suggesting that a USD value deflation is bullish, so I think that needs some explanatory reasoning.  Of course the value deflation is likely to be met with additional supply inflation, so from a classical economic view, that means eventual decline in USD value.  The value deflation is the part of the trajectory is what concerns me about the generally bullish estimation.


Right. In my mind, the Fed is going to turn the dial up in response to any kind of deflationary scenario. All the time and effort spent over the last 6 years or so, redefining the criteria for what a healthy economy looks like in terms of stock prices, employment, etc. doesn't need to be reworked for this to play out. All the groundwork has been set in place to print to infinity while pointing to these things. Ask a lemming about the economic recovery.

I guess the concern is that "trickle down" doesn't actually work, so this money might not be inherited by potential bitcoin users. In that case, the speed at which bitcoin reaches "Wall St." is a very important criteria to it's success. So the bear case could be made on this basis.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
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