http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20141125/1035013021.html
Topic: World War III - page 4. (Read 34327 times)
Russian warships now in the Channel earlier "practised repelling air attack after being circled by Nato planes”
http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20141125/1035013021.html
http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20141125/1035013021.html
First Strikes (or politically corrected: preventive war). We have the Edge since 1985. But I don't understand he is already very old. Is he a transhumanist aiming for eternal life on Earth? It's impossible to trust this man, he is a midwifer. If the contract he contracted with the woman he loved was trashed like that... what to expect. Unleash the Dashdrones! then peace, tranquility, harmony and prosperity is at reach. Only serious obstacle : Putin and his team. Remember Dresde, Remember Tokyo (fire) and all the others Japanese cities. Putin is like Ebola, the sooner, the better. This time it isn't about taking the citadel, but to hash it (BTC). And it can't be called a genocide, as many Russians live peacefully in the West, and will do so even after the final flashes. Moskow went. Like past cities where the rulers became obsessed with their status.
Window on Eurasia: Putin Prepared to Start Nuclear War to Keep Power and Avoid Corruption Charges, Kolesnikov Says
Paul Goble
Staunton, November 23 – Sergey Kolesnikov, who earlier attracted attention for an article entitled “Putin Forever!” (vedomosti.ru/opinion/news/1526746/putin_navsegda), now says that Vladimir Putin is prepared to start a war, even a nuclear one, in order to retain power and thus block any chance that he would be charged with corruption were he removed from office.
A biologist now living abroad and former business partner of Nikolay Shamalov who has been sanctioned by the EU and the US, Kolesnikov says that Putin is so focused on his personal power because he fears he would be tried and convicted for corruption were he to leave office (svoboda.org/content/article/26704277.html).
To prevent that series of events from happening, Kolesnikov says, he is prepared to start a war and even use nuclear weapons, an indication of the extent to which Putin is part of an extremely corrupt system and an explanation of why his actions, irrational from the point of view of Russia may appear to him a completely rational defense of his own person.
According to Kolesnikov, “a politician uses all means which he has in hand. No one would have suggested two years ago that a real war would be unleashed in the center of Europe and that thousands of people would die. But today is this a fait accompli.” Thus, “one must not exclude the possibility” that Putin will start a nuclear war in the future.
At present, Kolesnikov says, “Putin and his immediate entourage are already thinking not so much about the defense of their own property or about money.” Instead, “they are devoting attention simply to their own lives,” fearful that if they lost power, they “at a minimum” would be investigated and likely “punished” for their crimes.
Putin is not protected from this possibility by his high ratings, Kolesnikov continues. They don’t mean anything and could decline to almost zero overnight as has happened with other leaders when administrative measures are directed against them as happened in the case of Yuri Luzhkov, the former Moscow mayor.
Nor are Putin and his allies protected by laws or the Constitution. “There is no law in Russia, and even the Constitution does not work.” Consequently, he and they fully understand that any guarantees they think they may have will disappear as soon as someone else comes in their place.
What was protecting Putin, Kolesnikov suggests, is the grand bargain between himself and the Russian people, in which they deferred to him on political issues in turn for a guarantee that their personal well-being would continue to improve. But the economic crisis has called that bargain into question.
Neither Putin nor anyone else “wants to say that we are guilty” of what has happened. “It is always simpler to say that we have enemies – America and Europe – and that they are responsible for the fact that we are living worse than we were.” That helps to explain why Putin began the war in Ukraine; it may explain as well why he cannot stop it.
Putin hasn’t cared about money per se since 2008 because “all Russia belongs to him, and palaces are simply toys.” Instead, he cares only about “retaining power as a [necessary] condition for the preservation of his own life.”
The West in general does not understand Putin or understand what can and should be done with him. German Chancellor Merkel has come closest, Kolesnikov argues, when she observed that “we live in different realities.”
“The reality of Western politicians and the reality of Putin are different. These are parallel worlds,” and consequently, it is difficult to predict “what Putin will do” – and equally difficult to assume that there are certain things, even the most horrific, that he will refrain from doing.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/window-on-eurasia-putin-prepared-to.html
Paul Goble
Staunton, November 23 – Sergey Kolesnikov, who earlier attracted attention for an article entitled “Putin Forever!” (vedomosti.ru/opinion/news/1526746/putin_navsegda), now says that Vladimir Putin is prepared to start a war, even a nuclear one, in order to retain power and thus block any chance that he would be charged with corruption were he removed from office.
A biologist now living abroad and former business partner of Nikolay Shamalov who has been sanctioned by the EU and the US, Kolesnikov says that Putin is so focused on his personal power because he fears he would be tried and convicted for corruption were he to leave office (svoboda.org/content/article/26704277.html).
To prevent that series of events from happening, Kolesnikov says, he is prepared to start a war and even use nuclear weapons, an indication of the extent to which Putin is part of an extremely corrupt system and an explanation of why his actions, irrational from the point of view of Russia may appear to him a completely rational defense of his own person.
According to Kolesnikov, “a politician uses all means which he has in hand. No one would have suggested two years ago that a real war would be unleashed in the center of Europe and that thousands of people would die. But today is this a fait accompli.” Thus, “one must not exclude the possibility” that Putin will start a nuclear war in the future.
At present, Kolesnikov says, “Putin and his immediate entourage are already thinking not so much about the defense of their own property or about money.” Instead, “they are devoting attention simply to their own lives,” fearful that if they lost power, they “at a minimum” would be investigated and likely “punished” for their crimes.
Putin is not protected from this possibility by his high ratings, Kolesnikov continues. They don’t mean anything and could decline to almost zero overnight as has happened with other leaders when administrative measures are directed against them as happened in the case of Yuri Luzhkov, the former Moscow mayor.
Nor are Putin and his allies protected by laws or the Constitution. “There is no law in Russia, and even the Constitution does not work.” Consequently, he and they fully understand that any guarantees they think they may have will disappear as soon as someone else comes in their place.
What was protecting Putin, Kolesnikov suggests, is the grand bargain between himself and the Russian people, in which they deferred to him on political issues in turn for a guarantee that their personal well-being would continue to improve. But the economic crisis has called that bargain into question.
Neither Putin nor anyone else “wants to say that we are guilty” of what has happened. “It is always simpler to say that we have enemies – America and Europe – and that they are responsible for the fact that we are living worse than we were.” That helps to explain why Putin began the war in Ukraine; it may explain as well why he cannot stop it.
Putin hasn’t cared about money per se since 2008 because “all Russia belongs to him, and palaces are simply toys.” Instead, he cares only about “retaining power as a [necessary] condition for the preservation of his own life.”
The West in general does not understand Putin or understand what can and should be done with him. German Chancellor Merkel has come closest, Kolesnikov argues, when she observed that “we live in different realities.”
“The reality of Western politicians and the reality of Putin are different. These are parallel worlds,” and consequently, it is difficult to predict “what Putin will do” – and equally difficult to assume that there are certain things, even the most horrific, that he will refrain from doing.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/window-on-eurasia-putin-prepared-to.html
Russia Sends Warships To Australia
Russia has sent a fleet of warships towards Australia in an apparent display of muscle-flexing ahead of the G20 meeting amid tensions between the two countries over the MH17 crash.
Defence announced late on Wednesday it is "monitoring Russian naval vessels that are currently transiting through international waters to the north of Australia. . . ."
Defence Force chief Mark Binskin confirmed Defence was watching the fleet. In a reference to the fact it was a considerable distance for the Russian navy to travel, he noted one of the ships was an ocean-going tug, which tows other ships. . . .
Defence sources said the Australian Defence Force had sent two frigates, the Stuart and the Paramatta, and a P-3 Orion surveillance plane to monitor the Russians.
It comes as Prime Minister Tony Abbott had a sharp meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on the sidelines of the APEC summit, during which they discussed the MH17 crash. . . .
Russia's TASS news agency reported late last month that the battle group, led by a Slava-class cruiser that is capable of carrying nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, left from Vladivostok on October 23.
The fleet is made up of the "Varyag" cruiser, a destroyer named "Marshal Shaposhnikov", a salvage and rescue tug and a replenishment oiler.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/russia-sends-warships-to-australia
Russia has sent a fleet of warships towards Australia in an apparent display of muscle-flexing ahead of the G20 meeting amid tensions between the two countries over the MH17 crash.
Defence announced late on Wednesday it is "monitoring Russian naval vessels that are currently transiting through international waters to the north of Australia. . . ."
Defence Force chief Mark Binskin confirmed Defence was watching the fleet. In a reference to the fact it was a considerable distance for the Russian navy to travel, he noted one of the ships was an ocean-going tug, which tows other ships. . . .
Defence sources said the Australian Defence Force had sent two frigates, the Stuart and the Paramatta, and a P-3 Orion surveillance plane to monitor the Russians.
It comes as Prime Minister Tony Abbott had a sharp meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on the sidelines of the APEC summit, during which they discussed the MH17 crash. . . .
Russia's TASS news agency reported late last month that the battle group, led by a Slava-class cruiser that is capable of carrying nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, left from Vladivostok on October 23.
The fleet is made up of the "Varyag" cruiser, a destroyer named "Marshal Shaposhnikov", a salvage and rescue tug and a replenishment oiler.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/russia-sends-warships-to-australia
Russian bomber patrols to reach Gulf of Mexico
MOSCOW (AP) — Russia's long-range bombers will conduct regular patrol missions from the Arctic Ocean to the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, the military said Wednesday, a show of muscle reflecting tensions with the West over Ukraine.
A statement from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu comes as NATO has reported a spike in Russian military flights over the Black, Baltic and North seas as well as the Atlantic Ocean. It came as NATO's chief commander accused Moscow of sending new troops and tanks into Ukraine — a claim quickly rejected by Moscow.
Shoigu said Russian long-range bombers will conduct flights along Russian borders and over the Arctic Ocean. He added that "in the current situation we have to maintain military presence in the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific, as well as the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico."
He said that the increasing pace and duration of flights would require stronger maintenance efforts and relevant directives have been issued to industries.
Russian nuclear-capable strategic bombers were making regular patrols across the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans during Cold War times, but the post-Soviet money crunch forced the military to cut back. The bomber patrol flights have resumed under Putin's rule and have become increasingly frequent in recent years.
Earlier this year, Shoigu said that Russia plans to expand its worldwide military presence by seeking permission for navy ships to use ports in Latin America, Asia and elsewhere for replenishing supplies and doing maintenance. He said the military was conducting talks with Algeria, Cyprus, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, Seychelles, Vietnam and Singapore.
Shoigu said Russia was also talking to some of those countries about allowing long-range bombers to use their air bases for refueling.
Ian Kearns, director of the European Leadership Network, a London-based think tank, said the bomber patrols were part of Kremlin's efforts to make the Russian military "more visible and more assertive in its actions."
The new bomber flights "aren't necessarily presaging a threat," Kearns said. "They are just part of a general ramping-up of activities."
But he said "the more instances you have of NATO and Russian forces coming close together, the more chance there is of having something bad happening, even if it's not intentional."
On Monday, the European Leadership Network issued a report that found a sharp rise in Russian-NATO military encounters since the Kremlin's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in March, including violations of national airspace, narrowly avoided mid-air collisions, close encounters at sea, harassment of reconnaissance planes, close overflights over warships and Russian mock bombing raid missions.
Three of the nearly 40 incidents, the think tank said, carried a "high probability" of causing casualties or triggering a direct military confrontation: a narrowly avoided collision between a civilian airliner and a Russian surveillance plane, the abduction of an Estonian intelligence officer and a large-scale Swedish hunt for a suspected Russian submarine that yielded no result.
In September, the report said, Russian strategic bombers in the Labrador Sea off Canada practiced cruise missile strikes on the U.S. Earlier this year, in May, the report said, Russian military aircraft approached within 50 miles (80 kilometers) of the California coast, the closest such Russian military flight reported since the end of the Cold War.
Russia-West ties have dipped to their lowest point since Cold War times over Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine. The West and Ukraine have continuously accused Moscow of fueling the rebellion with troops and weapons — claims Russia has rejected.
Fighting has continued in the east despite a cease-fire agreement between Ukraine and the rebels signed in September, and Ukraine and the West accused Russia recently of sending in new troops and weapons.
U.S. Gen. Philip Breedlove said Wednesday that in the last two days "we have seen columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops entering into Ukraine."
Breedlove, who spoke in Sofia, Bulgaria, wouldn't say how many new troops and weapons have moved into Ukraine and wouldn't specify how the alliance obtained the information. The Russian Defense Ministry quickly rejected Breedlove's statement as groundless.
Breedlove said that the Russia-Ukraine border is "completely wide open," and "forces, money, support, supplies, weapons are flowing back and forth across this border completely at will."
"We need to get back to a situation where this international border is respected," he said.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/efcecffeb27244b98de4565598585885/russian-bomber-patrols-reach-gulf-mexico#overlay-context=article/7a56843d52504ab7938f570cc0258e23/west-bank-mosque-attacked-mayor-blames-settlers
MOSCOW (AP) — Russia's long-range bombers will conduct regular patrol missions from the Arctic Ocean to the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, the military said Wednesday, a show of muscle reflecting tensions with the West over Ukraine.
A statement from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu comes as NATO has reported a spike in Russian military flights over the Black, Baltic and North seas as well as the Atlantic Ocean. It came as NATO's chief commander accused Moscow of sending new troops and tanks into Ukraine — a claim quickly rejected by Moscow.
Shoigu said Russian long-range bombers will conduct flights along Russian borders and over the Arctic Ocean. He added that "in the current situation we have to maintain military presence in the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific, as well as the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico."
He said that the increasing pace and duration of flights would require stronger maintenance efforts and relevant directives have been issued to industries.
Russian nuclear-capable strategic bombers were making regular patrols across the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans during Cold War times, but the post-Soviet money crunch forced the military to cut back. The bomber patrol flights have resumed under Putin's rule and have become increasingly frequent in recent years.
Earlier this year, Shoigu said that Russia plans to expand its worldwide military presence by seeking permission for navy ships to use ports in Latin America, Asia and elsewhere for replenishing supplies and doing maintenance. He said the military was conducting talks with Algeria, Cyprus, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, Seychelles, Vietnam and Singapore.
Shoigu said Russia was also talking to some of those countries about allowing long-range bombers to use their air bases for refueling.
Ian Kearns, director of the European Leadership Network, a London-based think tank, said the bomber patrols were part of Kremlin's efforts to make the Russian military "more visible and more assertive in its actions."
The new bomber flights "aren't necessarily presaging a threat," Kearns said. "They are just part of a general ramping-up of activities."
But he said "the more instances you have of NATO and Russian forces coming close together, the more chance there is of having something bad happening, even if it's not intentional."
On Monday, the European Leadership Network issued a report that found a sharp rise in Russian-NATO military encounters since the Kremlin's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in March, including violations of national airspace, narrowly avoided mid-air collisions, close encounters at sea, harassment of reconnaissance planes, close overflights over warships and Russian mock bombing raid missions.
Three of the nearly 40 incidents, the think tank said, carried a "high probability" of causing casualties or triggering a direct military confrontation: a narrowly avoided collision between a civilian airliner and a Russian surveillance plane, the abduction of an Estonian intelligence officer and a large-scale Swedish hunt for a suspected Russian submarine that yielded no result.
In September, the report said, Russian strategic bombers in the Labrador Sea off Canada practiced cruise missile strikes on the U.S. Earlier this year, in May, the report said, Russian military aircraft approached within 50 miles (80 kilometers) of the California coast, the closest such Russian military flight reported since the end of the Cold War.
Russia-West ties have dipped to their lowest point since Cold War times over Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine. The West and Ukraine have continuously accused Moscow of fueling the rebellion with troops and weapons — claims Russia has rejected.
Fighting has continued in the east despite a cease-fire agreement between Ukraine and the rebels signed in September, and Ukraine and the West accused Russia recently of sending in new troops and weapons.
U.S. Gen. Philip Breedlove said Wednesday that in the last two days "we have seen columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops entering into Ukraine."
Breedlove, who spoke in Sofia, Bulgaria, wouldn't say how many new troops and weapons have moved into Ukraine and wouldn't specify how the alliance obtained the information. The Russian Defense Ministry quickly rejected Breedlove's statement as groundless.
Breedlove said that the Russia-Ukraine border is "completely wide open," and "forces, money, support, supplies, weapons are flowing back and forth across this border completely at will."
"We need to get back to a situation where this international border is respected," he said.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/efcecffeb27244b98de4565598585885/russian-bomber-patrols-reach-gulf-mexico#overlay-context=article/7a56843d52504ab7938f570cc0258e23/west-bank-mosque-attacked-mayor-blames-settlers
Russia Moving Missiles, Rockets Toward Eastern Ukraine
Russia is sending additional military forces toward the border with eastern Ukraine, including units equipped with ballistic missiles, as part of Moscow’s ongoing destabilization effort in support of pro-Russian rebels.
U.S. officials with access to intelligence reports said one Russian military unit equipped with short-range ballistic missiles was detected this week near eastern Ukraine, where Russia has launched a destabilization program following its military annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in March.
etc etc
Russia is sending additional military forces toward the border with eastern Ukraine, including units equipped with ballistic missiles, as part of Moscow’s ongoing destabilization effort in support of pro-Russian rebels.
U.S. officials with access to intelligence reports said one Russian military unit equipped with short-range ballistic missiles was detected this week near eastern Ukraine, where Russia has launched a destabilization program following its military annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in March.
etc etc
Your hatred for Russians has consumed your every waking moment. Your life is now seeped in deep angst that will never leave you.
Its clearly making unstable and those psychological issues are going to get worse.
I genuinely feel sorry for you.
So many utterly brainwashed mormons in this thread who actually believe the west BS about Russia
Get it in to your heads that its US - westerner governments and their banker bosses who are the
aggressors
How dare Russia put their country next to US missile bases in Poland, Czech Republic etc etc.
I guess it would be just fine if the Russians set up some bases in Canada huh. Its the same thing!
Get it in to your heads that its US - westerner governments and their banker bosses who are the
aggressors
How dare Russia put their country next to US missile bases in Poland, Czech Republic etc etc.
I guess it would be just fine if the Russians set up some bases in Canada huh. Its the same thing!
lol seriously this is odd.
Indeed it is. Freud would probably have a lot to say about the Russian psychological complexes. It all seems very consistent, even if it's not easy to predict:
The average Russian feels weak and powerless.
So they support governments that are power-hungry.
The average Russian feels like a victim who is not given much respect by the West.
So the Russian government acts like it has been victimised.
At the same time, the average Russian seems confident that their level of education and historical knowledge is superior to the Western kind.
So the Russian government acts arrogantly, "correcting" what they see as historical injustices.
It's a pathological loop of bullshit that has been going on for hundreds of years. Have they ever had a government that wasn't some gross overreaction to their psychological needs?
The cold war ended when the USSR collapsed
It has never ended, and doesn't matter what these guys wrote in history textbooks. US became friendly with (what is now) Russia
I suppose that by becoming friendly you mean performing some regular US friendly gestures... Installation of puppet government, supporting bloody Yeltsin's coup d'état in 1993... Or you're talking about creation of islamist "state" in Chechnya, which was far worse than ISIS and Taliban combined? The "state" which executed thousands of innocent people in the barbaric way and later performed a full-scale invasion to Ingushetia? Of course these thugs got their asses kicked and escaped to London... Yeah, what a joke, brutal murderers like Zakaev got a political asylum in the friendly and truly democratic state
I'm sorry but only schizophrenic individual would be able to consider these actions as signs of friendship. I would prefer to have convicted serial killer as a friend rather than anybody from the US or UK governments. Fuck them all, along with their voters.
We are in a cold war situation again
Again is incorrect word here because we have this situation since 1949. Cold war has never stopped.
World War III will be a class of ideologies and beliefs
One side will be Russian and Russian Sympathizers who do not Believe in the Gay Propaganda of the West
In relative equality if not communist equality and the ideas of Socialism and teamwork.
The other will be the liberalized West with its ideas of complete freedom and at the same time complete monitoring of everyone's communications.
Oh and of course corporations who want to maximize their bottom line
Then there will be the middle east region which will keep its ideas of traditional values and non-western influence as number one priories.
Just as World War one was about National identities and art and World War II was these tensions and the sheer absurdity of Germanys debt, World War III will be about belief systems, and ideas of what is freedom and what is tyranny.
One side will be Russian and Russian Sympathizers who do not Believe in the Gay Propaganda of the West
In relative equality if not communist equality and the ideas of Socialism and teamwork.
The other will be the liberalized West with its ideas of complete freedom and at the same time complete monitoring of everyone's communications.
Oh and of course corporations who want to maximize their bottom line
Then there will be the middle east region which will keep its ideas of traditional values and non-western influence as number one priories.
Just as World War one was about National identities and art and World War II was these tensions and the sheer absurdity of Germanys debt, World War III will be about belief systems, and ideas of what is freedom and what is tyranny.
We are in a cold war situation again
Again is incorrect word here because we have this situation since 1949. Cold war has never stopped.
It's been around the corner for a long time now. We are in a cold war situation again, but this time it's been going on for a very long time. Question is does USA want to ruin the world completely, I don't think so. And it's propably a battle they would lose in the end, China will never side with them - China+Russia is a strong opponent.
First time for everything - Norwegian AF intercepted new RU SU-34 fighter/bombers off Norwegian coast in OCT.
Autotranslate from http://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/forsvaret/her-flyr-russlands-nye-superfly-langs-norskekysten/a/23333831/
Russia's new superfly along the Norwegian coast
This was the sight that met the Norwegian pilots off the coast of Finnmark in late October: Brand new SU-34 Fullback fighter, the very latest and most advanced weapon in the Russian Air Force.
These are pictures you've never seen before: Brand new Russian SU-34 Fullback fighter off the coast of Norway.
VG follows
They are taken off the coast of Finnmark 29th October and close-ups of the Russian Air Force's new pride has not been published before VG got access to them today.
- The aircraft has been observed and identified by other NATO countries elsewhere earlier. But we've never seen them in North and off the coast of Norway before, says Brynjar Stordalselva, pressevakt Armed Forces Joint Headquarters, VG.
The very advanced fighter bombers are the latest in the increasingly robust Russian air force, and is built to carry nuclear weapons.
SU-34 aircraft has been in test phase, and the first was not put into active duty for the Air Force before June this year.
On one of the photos taken by the Norwegian pilots can see a Norwegian F-16 aircraft that included SU-34 aircraft just outside the Norwegian airspace. The Russian aircraft have what looks like external tanks for extra fuel. Under the wings are the weapons - probably for use in air to air combat.
The Norwegian aircraft shown is that of the fighters who are on limited readiness to intercept and identify aggressive Russian fighters.
UNDER ATTENTION: A Norwegian F-16 (right) gets a close encounter with Russian Su-34 Fullback for the very first time. It is also the first time SU-34 is in the North.
And although the Russian air traffic along the coast of Norway has been relatively stable for several years, there is one significant difference:
The Russian planes are becoming newer and more advanced.
- There is a replacement and renewal of Russian assets and capabilities in all areas, both on land, at sea and in the air. This is a clear example of, say Stordalselva.
Almost Crashes with SAS-fly
Today let the London-based think tank European Leadership Network presented a report showing how the Russian armed forces are acting far more aggressively this year compared to previous years.
The report lists 40 serious incidents, many of them in the Norwegian vicinity. Among the events are submarine hunting in the Swedish archipelago , and the dramatic minutes when a Russian patrol was only 90 meters from a SAS plane of Malmö, on the road from Copenhagen to Rome.
Also the Russian planes flying along the Norwegian coast in the afternoon on October 29 mentioned in the report. The Norwegian fighters quickly discovered the four TU-95 Bear H bombers and IL-78 tanker aircraft that followed them.
Brandishing the outside Finnmark
But that Norwegian pilots for the first time had close contact with the new Russian SU-34 fighter planes - and that they all were part of the large formation - has not been known before.
- There were a total of ten aircraft when they set out from the base on the Kola Peninsula. Escort aircraft, the two SU-34-one, turned north of the Norwegian airspace off the coast of Finnmark, says Stordalselva to VG.
Several of the aircraft continued along the Norwegian coast, closely followed by Norwegian F-16. In international airspace somewhere outside South Norway took British Typhoon fighter jets over the escort job, before F-16 aircraft from the Portuguese Air Force followed Bear bombers on the last of the journey.
The Russian bombers turned namely not until they were off the coast of Portugal.
- We know that the Russians have the capacity to fly so far. But it is very rare that they fly as far south as this, says Stordalselva to VG.
The two days in late October to NATO planes in the air to intercept and identify Russian fighter and bomber numerous times. The number was so large that NATO issued a separate press release in which they referred to it as "exceptionally high level of activity in European airspace."
- After this activity has returned to more normal levels. We have not experienced such large formations as the day the last few weeks, says Stordalselva to VG.
Blames "Russophobia"
Russia's annexation of the Crimea and the highly active intervention in the conflict in eastern Ukraine has caused concern for what is Vladimir Putin's real ambitions in several western countries.
It also made statements President Vladimir Putin's personal envoy Sergei Markov came with the Swedish media Tuesday ..
But quite elsewhere than in Sweden:
- You're in Sweden need not be afraid. Latvia and Estonia, however, reason to be afraid. If there is a major war, it is possible that there will not be anything left of these countries, says Markov to SVT.
He has previously stated that Finland is one of the most russofobiske countries in Europe. This time, he owes the increased tension between Russia and Western countries on what he calls Russophobia.
- The problem is Russophobia of the leading elite in the west. Russosfobi is racism against Russians. Get their land to stop being russofober, because it's going to be so much easier for you to live, says Markov.
Autotranslate from http://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/forsvaret/her-flyr-russlands-nye-superfly-langs-norskekysten/a/23333831/
Russia's new superfly along the Norwegian coast
This was the sight that met the Norwegian pilots off the coast of Finnmark in late October: Brand new SU-34 Fullback fighter, the very latest and most advanced weapon in the Russian Air Force.
These are pictures you've never seen before: Brand new Russian SU-34 Fullback fighter off the coast of Norway.
VG follows
They are taken off the coast of Finnmark 29th October and close-ups of the Russian Air Force's new pride has not been published before VG got access to them today.
- The aircraft has been observed and identified by other NATO countries elsewhere earlier. But we've never seen them in North and off the coast of Norway before, says Brynjar Stordalselva, pressevakt Armed Forces Joint Headquarters, VG.
The very advanced fighter bombers are the latest in the increasingly robust Russian air force, and is built to carry nuclear weapons.
SU-34 aircraft has been in test phase, and the first was not put into active duty for the Air Force before June this year.
On one of the photos taken by the Norwegian pilots can see a Norwegian F-16 aircraft that included SU-34 aircraft just outside the Norwegian airspace. The Russian aircraft have what looks like external tanks for extra fuel. Under the wings are the weapons - probably for use in air to air combat.
The Norwegian aircraft shown is that of the fighters who are on limited readiness to intercept and identify aggressive Russian fighters.
UNDER ATTENTION: A Norwegian F-16 (right) gets a close encounter with Russian Su-34 Fullback for the very first time. It is also the first time SU-34 is in the North.
And although the Russian air traffic along the coast of Norway has been relatively stable for several years, there is one significant difference:
The Russian planes are becoming newer and more advanced.
- There is a replacement and renewal of Russian assets and capabilities in all areas, both on land, at sea and in the air. This is a clear example of, say Stordalselva.
Almost Crashes with SAS-fly
Today let the London-based think tank European Leadership Network presented a report showing how the Russian armed forces are acting far more aggressively this year compared to previous years.
The report lists 40 serious incidents, many of them in the Norwegian vicinity. Among the events are submarine hunting in the Swedish archipelago , and the dramatic minutes when a Russian patrol was only 90 meters from a SAS plane of Malmö, on the road from Copenhagen to Rome.
Also the Russian planes flying along the Norwegian coast in the afternoon on October 29 mentioned in the report. The Norwegian fighters quickly discovered the four TU-95 Bear H bombers and IL-78 tanker aircraft that followed them.
Brandishing the outside Finnmark
But that Norwegian pilots for the first time had close contact with the new Russian SU-34 fighter planes - and that they all were part of the large formation - has not been known before.
- There were a total of ten aircraft when they set out from the base on the Kola Peninsula. Escort aircraft, the two SU-34-one, turned north of the Norwegian airspace off the coast of Finnmark, says Stordalselva to VG.
Several of the aircraft continued along the Norwegian coast, closely followed by Norwegian F-16. In international airspace somewhere outside South Norway took British Typhoon fighter jets over the escort job, before F-16 aircraft from the Portuguese Air Force followed Bear bombers on the last of the journey.
The Russian bombers turned namely not until they were off the coast of Portugal.
- We know that the Russians have the capacity to fly so far. But it is very rare that they fly as far south as this, says Stordalselva to VG.
The two days in late October to NATO planes in the air to intercept and identify Russian fighter and bomber numerous times. The number was so large that NATO issued a separate press release in which they referred to it as "exceptionally high level of activity in European airspace."
- After this activity has returned to more normal levels. We have not experienced such large formations as the day the last few weeks, says Stordalselva to VG.
Blames "Russophobia"
Russia's annexation of the Crimea and the highly active intervention in the conflict in eastern Ukraine has caused concern for what is Vladimir Putin's real ambitions in several western countries.
It also made statements President Vladimir Putin's personal envoy Sergei Markov came with the Swedish media Tuesday ..
But quite elsewhere than in Sweden:
- You're in Sweden need not be afraid. Latvia and Estonia, however, reason to be afraid. If there is a major war, it is possible that there will not be anything left of these countries, says Markov to SVT.
He has previously stated that Finland is one of the most russofobiske countries in Europe. This time, he owes the increased tension between Russia and Western countries on what he calls Russophobia.
- The problem is Russophobia of the leading elite in the west. Russosfobi is racism against Russians. Get their land to stop being russofober, because it's going to be so much easier for you to live, says Markov.
Putin can wipe US from the map.
Russia Brinkmanship: 14 Stunts Against West
There have been 14 serious military activities by an emboldened Russia against the West in the past eight months.
Probing another country's military preparedness is fairly routine, but a report by the European Leadership Network (ELN) details 14 cases since March when Russia went beyond what is regarded as acceptable.
High Risk Incidents - Defined by the ELN as those "with a high probability of causing casualties or a direct military confrontation between Russia and Western states.
:: 3 March 2014: A close encounter occurs between a passenger plane from airline SAS taking off from Copenhagen, and a Russian reconnaissance aircraft which did not transmit its position.
A collision was only avoided thanks to good visibility, and the passenger plane's pilot.
Western sanctions on Russia and NATO patrols of the Baltic Sea would have been the likely result of such a crash.
:: 5 September 2014: An Estonian security service officer called Eston Kohver is abducted by Russian agents from an Estonian border post and accused of espionage in Moscow.
Smoke grenades and communications jamming equipment were used in the abduction, which followed assurances by US President Barack Obama of security for the Baltic States.
:: 17-27 October 2014: The biggest anti-submarine operation in Sweden since the Cold War takes place after intelligence reports of "underwater activity" in the Stockholm archipelago.
No submarine was found but on 24 October the Swedish military said "foreign underwater activity" had probably taken place.
Serious Incidents - Defined as cases which are beyond routine probing of defences, usually involving aggressive or provocative close encounters.
:: 12 April 2014: An unarmed Russian fighter makes 12 passes of American warship the USS Cook in the Black Sea. The report said that it could have resulted in retaliation on the orders of the ship's commander.
:: 23 April 2014: An armed Russian fighter undertakes threatening manoeuvres near an American reconnaissance aircraft in the Sea of Okhotsk.
The manoeuvres involved demonstrating that the fighter was armed.
:: June 2014: Armed Russian aircraft approach the heavily populated Danish island of Bornholm before breaking off in what appears to have been a simulated attack.
:: 16 July 2014: An armed Russian aircraft intercepts a Swedish surveillance plane conducting operations between Gotland and Latvia in international airspace, flying within 10 metres of the plane.
:: 18 July 2014: An American surveillance plane conducting operations near Kaliningrad is chased into Swedish airspace after being approached by Russian fighters.
:: September 2014: Russian strategic bombers in the Labrador Sea near Canada simulate cruise missile strikes on the United States.
:: 7 September 2014: Frigate HMCS Toronto is buzzed by a Russian aircraft in the Black Sea, with the plane coming within 300 (984ft) metres of the warship.
:: 17 September 2014: Two Russian military aircraft cross into Swedish airspace south of the island of Oland.
:: 19 September 2014: Russian officers detain a Lithuanian shipping vessel in international waters in the Barents Sea, subsequently towing it to Murmansk.
:: 3 October 2014: A Russian fighter flies "within metres" of Swedish surveillance aircraft in the Baltic in an incident deemed "unusually provocative".
:: 28-30 October 2014: Russia conducts a major air exercise in the North Sea, Atlantic, Black Sea and Baltic Sea.
Their scale added significantly to increased tensions between NATO and Russia.
http://news.sky.com/story/1370352/russia-brinkmanship-14-stunts-against-west
There have been 14 serious military activities by an emboldened Russia against the West in the past eight months.
Probing another country's military preparedness is fairly routine, but a report by the European Leadership Network (ELN) details 14 cases since March when Russia went beyond what is regarded as acceptable.
High Risk Incidents - Defined by the ELN as those "with a high probability of causing casualties or a direct military confrontation between Russia and Western states.
:: 3 March 2014: A close encounter occurs between a passenger plane from airline SAS taking off from Copenhagen, and a Russian reconnaissance aircraft which did not transmit its position.
A collision was only avoided thanks to good visibility, and the passenger plane's pilot.
Western sanctions on Russia and NATO patrols of the Baltic Sea would have been the likely result of such a crash.
:: 5 September 2014: An Estonian security service officer called Eston Kohver is abducted by Russian agents from an Estonian border post and accused of espionage in Moscow.
Smoke grenades and communications jamming equipment were used in the abduction, which followed assurances by US President Barack Obama of security for the Baltic States.
:: 17-27 October 2014: The biggest anti-submarine operation in Sweden since the Cold War takes place after intelligence reports of "underwater activity" in the Stockholm archipelago.
No submarine was found but on 24 October the Swedish military said "foreign underwater activity" had probably taken place.
Serious Incidents - Defined as cases which are beyond routine probing of defences, usually involving aggressive or provocative close encounters.
:: 12 April 2014: An unarmed Russian fighter makes 12 passes of American warship the USS Cook in the Black Sea. The report said that it could have resulted in retaliation on the orders of the ship's commander.
:: 23 April 2014: An armed Russian fighter undertakes threatening manoeuvres near an American reconnaissance aircraft in the Sea of Okhotsk.
The manoeuvres involved demonstrating that the fighter was armed.
:: June 2014: Armed Russian aircraft approach the heavily populated Danish island of Bornholm before breaking off in what appears to have been a simulated attack.
:: 16 July 2014: An armed Russian aircraft intercepts a Swedish surveillance plane conducting operations between Gotland and Latvia in international airspace, flying within 10 metres of the plane.
:: 18 July 2014: An American surveillance plane conducting operations near Kaliningrad is chased into Swedish airspace after being approached by Russian fighters.
:: September 2014: Russian strategic bombers in the Labrador Sea near Canada simulate cruise missile strikes on the United States.
:: 7 September 2014: Frigate HMCS Toronto is buzzed by a Russian aircraft in the Black Sea, with the plane coming within 300 (984ft) metres of the warship.
:: 17 September 2014: Two Russian military aircraft cross into Swedish airspace south of the island of Oland.
:: 19 September 2014: Russian officers detain a Lithuanian shipping vessel in international waters in the Barents Sea, subsequently towing it to Murmansk.
:: 3 October 2014: A Russian fighter flies "within metres" of Swedish surveillance aircraft in the Baltic in an incident deemed "unusually provocative".
:: 28-30 October 2014: Russia conducts a major air exercise in the North Sea, Atlantic, Black Sea and Baltic Sea.
Their scale added significantly to increased tensions between NATO and Russia.
http://news.sky.com/story/1370352/russia-brinkmanship-14-stunts-against-west
Putin bullies NATO: ruSSian spyplane violates Lithuania airspace, Canadian Hornets intercept it
@pagan:
One of the greatest deterrents to WWIII is an armed, common populace. If you don't want to see WWIII, give the common people the best guns, lots of ammo, and training on how to use their guns. What will happen? Here's what.
The common people will get rid of the only thing that wants to make WWIII, their own government. They will form a new government that does nothing except to judge between petty arguments and disagreements between the common people.
It's the only way, because the big shots in the governments always pressure an unarmed common people to take sides. ARM THE PEOPLE.
The common people will get rid of the only thing that wants to make WWIII, their own government. They will form a new government that does nothing except to judge between petty arguments and disagreements between the common people.
It's the only way, because the big shots in the governments always pressure an unarmed common people to take sides. ARM THE PEOPLE.
Russian hybrid warfare: what are effects-based network operations and how to counteract them
Confirmation that the command operates a network of paid pro-Kremlin commenters appeared on May 31, 2014. Anonymous International exposed the activities of the Russian Internet Research Agency, which feeds itself from Russia’s state budget. The goal of this organization is to create, through comments on the internet, the illusion of support for the Kremlin regime.
Interestingly, the owner of the agency, Eugene Prigozhin, is the founder of the holding company Concord, known as ‘Putin’s chef.’ The company’s direct management includes Maria Kuprashevich, who is known for having taken a job in the liberal media to commit espionage.
It was revealed that there is a staff team who are working with strict accountability to the curators. These staff writers are paid for writing pro-government comments on the internet.
The average salary of such a ‘commenter’ writing ‘politically correct’ posts is from thirty to forty thousand rubles (approx. 1,000 USD). Propaganda warfare is conducted on two fronts, on both the Russian and international internet. Each department has its ‘experts’, on which total spending for the last month amounted to 33 million rubles (1 million USD).
To confirm these facts, it is enough to compare scanned passports discovered through hacking email accounts with real people on social networks. A list of hacked correspondence, as well as some names and details on people, can be found in this publication (in Russian). Many more confirmations were published.
As highlighted by Stephen Komarnyckyj, an analysis of Russian propaganda content suggests that Russia: :
Disseminates conspiracy theories tinged with anti-Semitism to erode public trust in Western governments, and also to use support for Israel to inflame anti-Western sentiments. The core of the conspiracy theory is a narrative which suggests the USA is controlled by Zionists who in turn organised 09/11;
Influences politicians, often marginal figures, by granting them air time to gain support for Russia’s hostile actions towards other countries. However, this simultaneously boosts the image of extremist politicians promoting anti-Western views and political disengagement;
Promotes a narrative for the war in Syria favorable to the Assad regime. In turn, Assad, in exchange for the support of Oboronservis and Russian specialists, blocks the establishment of a pipeline from the Qatar gas deposits to the EU;
Incentivizes journalists who spread misinformation according to a centrally produced agenda. There are journalists who are directly employed by Russia Today and receive a script, and others who work as freelancers but produce material which conforms to the channel’s agenda;
Forms a climate of opinion in the West to allow an invasion of Ukraine to take place and boost tolerance for subsequent genocide/ethnic cleansing by stigmatising Ukrainian national identity.
The tools used to implement such mechanisms are derived from the concept of effect-based operations. Effects-based operations (EBO) concept was developed by Dr. Edward A. Smith. His book “Effects-Based Operations: Applying Network Centric Warfare in Peace, Crisis, and War published” was published by US DoD Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) in 2003. Effects-Based Operations (EBO) is a United States military concept that emerged during the Persian Gulf War for the planning and conduct of operations combining military and non-military methods to achieve a particular effect. In 2008, US Joint Forces Command stopped using the term “effects-based”, but the concept remains valid in the US Air Force.
“Effects-based operations (EBO) are coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis, and war. The concept of effects-based operations focuses “coordinated sets of actions” on objectives defined in terms of human behavior in multiple dimensions and on multiple levels, and measures their success in terms of the behavior produced.”
“Effects can occur simultaneously on the tactical, operational, military-strategic, and geo-strategic levels of military operations, in domestic and international political arenas, and in the economic arena as well. Effects cannot be isolated. All effects, at each level and in each arena, are interrelated and are cumulative over time. And lastly, effects are both physical and psychological in nature. Effects-based operations can be described as operations in the cognitive domain because that is where human beings react to stimuli, come to an understanding of a situation, and decide on a response.”
As we can see in essence not much difference with the concept of 6 priorities discussed in Russia since 1995. It does not mean that Russia was early in understanding of some concepts. Effects-based operations are not new. Good generals, admirals, and statesmen have focused on using military forces to shape the behavior of friends and foes for centuries.
New warfare concepts related to information age developments reflected in the new approaches. Direct approach of attrition based warfare changed with asymmetric warfare approaches.
Attrition warfare is a military strategy in which a belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and materiel. The war will usually be won by the side with greater such resources. Attrition warfare is the key element of conventional warfare. Conventional warfare is a form of warfare conducted by using conventional weapons and battlefield tactics between two or more states in open confrontation. The forces on each side are well-defined, and fight using weapons that primarily target the opponent’s military. It is normally fought using conventional weapons, and not with chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons.
In modern world where national states can not use obviously conventional war against opponent or where the networks appeared and developed the concept of asymmetric warfare which is element of non-conventional warfare comes in foreground.
Asymmetric warfare is war between belligerents whose relative military power differs significantly, or whose strategy or tactics differ significantly. Asymmetric warfare can describe a conflict in which the resources of two belligerents differ in essence and in the struggle, interact and attempt to exploit each other’s characteristic weaknesses. Such struggles often involve strategies and tactics of unconventional warfare. Unconventional warfare (abbreviated UW) is the opposite of conventional warfare. Where conventional warfare is used to reduce the opponent’s military capability, unconventional warfare is an attempt to achieve military victory through acquiescence, capitulation, or clandestine support for one side of an existing conflict.
On the surface, unconventional warfare contrasts with conventional warfare in that forces or objectives are covert or not well-defined, tactics and weapons intensify environments of subversion or intimidation, and the general or long-term goals are coercive or subversive to a political body.
The impact of means upon the outcome tends to vary arithmetically, while that of will varies geometrically. The more determined the foe, the less means he will require in order to succeed in the contest. The more constrained the task is, the greater the probability is of success with the means available. However, obviously if the means fall to zero, no amount of determination will suffice to make up the difference.
The general objective of unconventional warfare is to instill a belief that peace and security are not possible without compromise or concession. Specific objectives include inducement of war-weariness, curtailment of civilian standards of living and civil liberties associated with greater security demands, economic hardship linked to the costs of war; hopelessness to defend against assaults, fear, depression, and disintegration of morale. Two original definition are claiming: “The intent of U.S. Unconventional Warfare efforts is to exploit a hostile power’s political, military, economic, and psychological vulnerabilities by developing and sustaining resistance forces to accomplish U.S. strategic objectives.” or according to John F. Kennedy: “There is another type of warfare—new in its intensity, ancient in its origin—war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of by combat, by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It preys on unrest.
The ultimate goal of this type of warfare is to motivate an enemy to stop attacking or resisting even if it has the ability to continue. Failing this, a secondary objective can be to debilitate the enemy before a conventional attack.
Attrition warfare was based on symmetry of Means and Will
If a symmetric contest may be said to pit one adversary with great means and great will against another that also has both great means and great will, then an asymmetric contest might be expected to involve different combinations. The possibilities can be outlined in terms of a simple quadratic diagram.
Key in understanding of hybrid warfare concept is conflict is between one power that has great means and limited will and another that has limited means but great will. The result is likely to be far from being either certain or swift.
The success lies in attacking your opponent’s weaknesses and not his strengths and by extension, that warfare revolves about the creation and exploitation of asymmetries. There are really two different symmetries that might be exploited. One side has an advantage in means. Logically, we would expect that side to exploit its advantage by attacking and destroying the other’s more limited physical means, e.g. by pressing an essentially attrition-based approach. The other side has an advantage in will. Therefore, we would expect that side to exploit its advantage by attacking its opponent’s will to continue the struggle, e.g. an essentially effects-based approach focused on shaping the opponent’s behavior.
The impact of means upon the outcome tends to vary arithmetically, while that of will varies geometrically. The more determined the foe, the less means he will require in order to succeed in the contest. The more constrained the task is, the greater the probability is of success with the means available.
Does this mean that asymmetric forms of conflict have replaced the old attrition-based warfare driven by a symmetry of means and will? Actually no. This is mistake to think so. Asymmetric forms of conflict could serve to prelude of old attrition-based war after the goal of behavior shaping resulting from successful effect-based operations is achived. That is why for Western leaders it is naïve to believe that asymmetric conflict Russia with West can not grow to conventional conflict once the will as a key component of resistance has been suppressed. That is why the first and ultimate goal of Russia at this stage is the will of Western countries to resist. For this purpose the information and network operations is the key Russian strategy. That means that far more is behind Russian RT and informational operations.
There are many analytical reports of Russian think tanks on organization of network and informational operations. Many case studies and practical tools how to do efficiently information and network operations have been developed. In hybrid war news agencies, blogosphere and social networks are military tools (“actors” and “sensors’) in battlefield. The sooner the West understands this issue the better.
Pilosophic, theoretic and strategical approaches for informational and netwars have been formed among other authors by Alexander Dugin, the ideologist of the creation of a Eurasian empire that would oppose the “Atlantist interests”. Dugin, who is known for his fascist views, expounds his theory of warfare in his work – “Netwars – the threat of new generation”. Special portals have been established in order to exchange information and experience in informational and netwars (it contains also closed restricted part) exist. For example: Portal of netwar, Eurasia netwar subportal.
Another example, just one of many, can be used to illustrate the detailed and planned preparation of Russia for the conduct of network operations in social networks. Nikolay Starikov is an active proponent of information and netwars. He created schools for Russian “patriotic” bloggers and created a substantial volume of content for propaganda purposes and for the purpose of attacking “anti-Russian” views. He created the so-called Internet militia with blog for the exchange of information and experience. His latest books are used for brainwashing of “patriotic bloggers” including extracts from such works as “Ukraine, chaos and revolution – weapon of Dollar” and “Russia, Crimea, History”. An example of the resources developed by Nikolay Starikov can be found here: Nikolay Starikov blog; Nikolay Starikov Internet Militia: Nikolay Starikov traning for Russian “patriotic” bloggers (2011) - Video in Russian.
This is only one example. There are many similar organizations and authors working for Russian think tanks in this sphere.
What actions are possible to oppose Russia both symmetrically and asymmetrically and counteracting Russian information and network aggression?
First of all a shared vision of both West and Ukraine. This vision shall be based on understanding that Russia have been waging a war against not only Ukraine, but also the West using a wide array of means and tools. One of the most important elements is to strengthen and protect the will of the West and Ukraine (key target for effects-based operations) to stop Russia. Russia, by targeting the West’s will, will be able with lower resources to efficiently target the West, and first of all the EU until it reaches the point of compliance with Russia.
Ukraine is the first country to face this type of total hybrid war and has developed conclusions regarding how to fight a well-prepared enemy using new warfare tools and among them informational and network warfare. An understanding of the military priority is growing rapidly in Ukraine, but regarding the information and network priorities there is still a lack of understanding and action. In order to withstand this hybrid war efficiently Ukraine needs help from the West including non-governmental organizations.
Another point of concern is that volunteer efforts in the area of information and network activities could decrease as as the economic factor started to prevail and some volunteers are returning to business or to self-employment. Ukraine as a state provides no visible support and investments to NGOs and similar organization in the informational sector of Ukraine both for internal audience and for Western audience. The help from Western foundations and NGOs are not visible too as major point of application of projects and grants are conventional journalistic and mass media and not blogs and social networks.
If NGOs and groups supporting Ukraine and Ukrainian NGOs and groups will not coordinate their activities, not efficiently cooperate and will not get sufficient resources then they unfortunately will lose and remain at the best a nice intellectual passive discussion clubs. The question is just when it happens if not to change current approaches. One of the myth of network and information operations in peace time or hybrid wars that they apply only to a peer competitor (in this case Russia). This myth seems to be in minds of the Ukrainian defense ministry and government: if Russia spends so huge resources and funds on network and informational warfare that Ukraine is simply helpless and can do nothing. This is a very dangerous delusion. They forgot about being smarter and more efficient networking, coordination and efficient investments and fundraising. However even if we manage to be smart and possess huge will without investments, fundraising and resources (means) the information war against Russia could be lost Obviously if the means in asymmetric warfare equation (means*will2 ) fall to zero, no amount of determination will suffice to make up the difference.
The actions within mass-media and conventional journalistic domain have been discussed widely, but Internet informational resources were left without attention. What shall an organization or set of organizations do to efficiently counteract Russian information aggression against the West and Ukraine. The action shall be symmetrical compared to what is Russia is doing otherwise information and network war will be lost.
The actions described below proposed by “A strategy for damaging Russia’s propaganda machine” by Stephen Komarnyckyj,were intended as a starting point for discussion. The main principles on which they are based are:
mapping Russia’s propaganda resources- we need to develop a conceptual framework to do so which breaks the resources into categories such as
a) directly financed media agencies
b) directly paid agents of influence
c) Soviet legacy political parties who are still Russian centric in orientation
a shift away from uncoordinated initiatives towards pooling resources and coordinating actions;
a move away from reacting to the material produced by the propaganda apparatus to a focus on coordinated action to destroy the apparatus itself;
a focus on undermining Putin’s virtual world and its hired creators by exposing its – and their – dishonesty;
an emphasis on non-violent action. The strategy must adhere to best practice in terms of being anti-discriminatory. It is likely that the traditional ploy of depicting Ukrainians as Nazis will be utilised against any organised campaign. It is also possible that attempts will be made to discredit the campaign by planting agents who will make provocative, inflammatory statements. Indeed, Ukrainian politics has been affected by a number of right wing parties who may have been sponsored by Russia.
The document was only an initial outline of a strategy. The key messages are:
a planned campaign focusing on the structure of Putin’s propaganda apparatus and involving a coordinated effort will be more effect than sporadic, uncoordinated campaigns;
such a campaign could permanently and decisively ruin Russia’s propaganda apparatus;
the campaign must be part of a programme to decolonise the West’s perception of Ukraine;
the campaign must adhere to the principles of transparency, equality, and diversity both as a matter of principle and because this will neutralise several means by which Russia might attempt to discredit the attack on its propaganda apparatus.
In development of this initiative Euromiadan Press following discussions and exchange of opinions defined preliminary set of action to efficiently counteract Russian information aggression against West and Ukraine
Build up and maintenance of Internet informational resource for:
coordinating of activities in social networks in Ukraine and abroad to present truthful information on Ukraine;
presenting truthful information on Ukraine by translations
exposing Russian propaganda directed against Ukraine
exposing the links of Western organizations, foundations, agencies, NGOs, journalists, politicians with Russia (shall be based only based on proved information obtained through investigational journalism)
referral of information to Western journalists involved in presenting information on Ukraine
contacting Western think tanks with presentation of information on Ukraine
closing the gaps in analytics about Ukraine (cultural, historical, day-to-day life, news e.t.c. )
exposing Russian doctrines and strategies which were not covered by Western NGOs, agencies, consultancies, think tanks and Western mass media
presenting position of Ukrainian government in informal way through social networks on topics related to counteraction of Russia
presenting the views and information which government can not express directly due to diplomatic restrictions by the way of assumptions and analytics
Placing the information in order to study public reaction (“feeler”) to possible scenarios and actions
Networking
a planned campaign focusing on the structure of Putin’s propaganda apparatus and involving a coordinated effort
Build up and maintenance of Internet informational resource for (separately from news and informational project)
Informational war against Russia
Psychological war against Russia
Positive commenting in Western mass media and in social networks of selected topics and points (“Ukrainian trolls”)
presenting the views and information which government can not express directly due to diplomatic restrictions (in contrast to points in topic 1 – more radical views)
Placing the information in order to study public reaction (“feeler”) to possible scenarios and actions (in contrast to points in topic 1 – more radical views)
Disinformation for creating uncertainties for Russia to plan efficient actions against Ukraine
a planned campaign focusing on the structure of Putin’s propaganda apparatus and involving a coordinated effort
Academic activity
Study and presentation of Russian doctrines, strategies and motivations which were not adequately covered by Western NGOs, think tanks, agencies, consultancies and Western mass media
Study and presentation of new strategies and tactics employed by Russia in hybrid war against Ukraine (could be used by Russia further to destabilize the situation in Europe)
Cooperation with Western think tanks with purpose for them to better understand current Russian ideology and motivations
Research of current situation and moods in occupied territories
Psychological studies of refugees from occupied territories, Ukrainian servicemen participants of war against Russia and Russian – backed terrorist with the aim to develop optimal rehabilitation approaches
Investigational journalism:
Exposing Russian politicians, Ukrainian politicians working against Ukraine
Exposing the links of Western journalists and politicians with Russia (shall be based only based on proved information)
Exposing Russian involvement in activities against Ukraine
Exposing war crimes committed during hybrid war against Ukraine
Exposing Western lobbyists of Russia
Educational support, training
For Ukrainian NGOs, think tanks and activists:
o Efficient work through social networks, internet resources
o Trainings on software (wordpress, php, seo etc.)
o Sharing experience on particulars of hybrid war warfare
For Western NGOs, think tanks and experts:
o Russian ideology, doctrines and strategies and their applications
o Ukrainian culture and history
o Sharing experience on particulars of hybrid war warfare
Build up and maintenance of Internet popular educations resource explaining complicated topics in simple and entertaining format targeted for wide public and busy people (examples: http://www.vox.com/) for younger audience even comics could be used. Humor could be used (perhaps on a separate site) as an emotional means for exposing Russian propaganda (information connected with positive relaxing emotions is effective in engraining perceptions while avoiding critical evaluation).
In order to make these actions a reality Ukraine needs the help of Western non-governmental organizations and foundations to provide a coordinated network activities which will facilitate the destruction of Russia’s propaganda machine.
Written by Dr. Vitalii Usenko, MD, MBA, expert in international business management and communications and by Dmytro Usenko, student at Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto
Special thanks to Steve Komarnyckyi and Edmond Huet for their review advice and comments which were very valuable during preparation of this article
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/11/05/russian-hybrid-warfare-what-are-effect-based-network-operations-and-how-to-counteract-them/
Confirmation that the command operates a network of paid pro-Kremlin commenters appeared on May 31, 2014. Anonymous International exposed the activities of the Russian Internet Research Agency, which feeds itself from Russia’s state budget. The goal of this organization is to create, through comments on the internet, the illusion of support for the Kremlin regime.
Interestingly, the owner of the agency, Eugene Prigozhin, is the founder of the holding company Concord, known as ‘Putin’s chef.’ The company’s direct management includes Maria Kuprashevich, who is known for having taken a job in the liberal media to commit espionage.
It was revealed that there is a staff team who are working with strict accountability to the curators. These staff writers are paid for writing pro-government comments on the internet.
The average salary of such a ‘commenter’ writing ‘politically correct’ posts is from thirty to forty thousand rubles (approx. 1,000 USD). Propaganda warfare is conducted on two fronts, on both the Russian and international internet. Each department has its ‘experts’, on which total spending for the last month amounted to 33 million rubles (1 million USD).
To confirm these facts, it is enough to compare scanned passports discovered through hacking email accounts with real people on social networks. A list of hacked correspondence, as well as some names and details on people, can be found in this publication (in Russian). Many more confirmations were published.
As highlighted by Stephen Komarnyckyj, an analysis of Russian propaganda content suggests that Russia: :
Disseminates conspiracy theories tinged with anti-Semitism to erode public trust in Western governments, and also to use support for Israel to inflame anti-Western sentiments. The core of the conspiracy theory is a narrative which suggests the USA is controlled by Zionists who in turn organised 09/11;
Influences politicians, often marginal figures, by granting them air time to gain support for Russia’s hostile actions towards other countries. However, this simultaneously boosts the image of extremist politicians promoting anti-Western views and political disengagement;
Promotes a narrative for the war in Syria favorable to the Assad regime. In turn, Assad, in exchange for the support of Oboronservis and Russian specialists, blocks the establishment of a pipeline from the Qatar gas deposits to the EU;
Incentivizes journalists who spread misinformation according to a centrally produced agenda. There are journalists who are directly employed by Russia Today and receive a script, and others who work as freelancers but produce material which conforms to the channel’s agenda;
Forms a climate of opinion in the West to allow an invasion of Ukraine to take place and boost tolerance for subsequent genocide/ethnic cleansing by stigmatising Ukrainian national identity.
The tools used to implement such mechanisms are derived from the concept of effect-based operations. Effects-based operations (EBO) concept was developed by Dr. Edward A. Smith. His book “Effects-Based Operations: Applying Network Centric Warfare in Peace, Crisis, and War published” was published by US DoD Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) in 2003. Effects-Based Operations (EBO) is a United States military concept that emerged during the Persian Gulf War for the planning and conduct of operations combining military and non-military methods to achieve a particular effect. In 2008, US Joint Forces Command stopped using the term “effects-based”, but the concept remains valid in the US Air Force.
“Effects-based operations (EBO) are coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis, and war. The concept of effects-based operations focuses “coordinated sets of actions” on objectives defined in terms of human behavior in multiple dimensions and on multiple levels, and measures their success in terms of the behavior produced.”
“Effects can occur simultaneously on the tactical, operational, military-strategic, and geo-strategic levels of military operations, in domestic and international political arenas, and in the economic arena as well. Effects cannot be isolated. All effects, at each level and in each arena, are interrelated and are cumulative over time. And lastly, effects are both physical and psychological in nature. Effects-based operations can be described as operations in the cognitive domain because that is where human beings react to stimuli, come to an understanding of a situation, and decide on a response.”
As we can see in essence not much difference with the concept of 6 priorities discussed in Russia since 1995. It does not mean that Russia was early in understanding of some concepts. Effects-based operations are not new. Good generals, admirals, and statesmen have focused on using military forces to shape the behavior of friends and foes for centuries.
New warfare concepts related to information age developments reflected in the new approaches. Direct approach of attrition based warfare changed with asymmetric warfare approaches.
Attrition warfare is a military strategy in which a belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and materiel. The war will usually be won by the side with greater such resources. Attrition warfare is the key element of conventional warfare. Conventional warfare is a form of warfare conducted by using conventional weapons and battlefield tactics between two or more states in open confrontation. The forces on each side are well-defined, and fight using weapons that primarily target the opponent’s military. It is normally fought using conventional weapons, and not with chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons.
In modern world where national states can not use obviously conventional war against opponent or where the networks appeared and developed the concept of asymmetric warfare which is element of non-conventional warfare comes in foreground.
Asymmetric warfare is war between belligerents whose relative military power differs significantly, or whose strategy or tactics differ significantly. Asymmetric warfare can describe a conflict in which the resources of two belligerents differ in essence and in the struggle, interact and attempt to exploit each other’s characteristic weaknesses. Such struggles often involve strategies and tactics of unconventional warfare. Unconventional warfare (abbreviated UW) is the opposite of conventional warfare. Where conventional warfare is used to reduce the opponent’s military capability, unconventional warfare is an attempt to achieve military victory through acquiescence, capitulation, or clandestine support for one side of an existing conflict.
On the surface, unconventional warfare contrasts with conventional warfare in that forces or objectives are covert or not well-defined, tactics and weapons intensify environments of subversion or intimidation, and the general or long-term goals are coercive or subversive to a political body.
The impact of means upon the outcome tends to vary arithmetically, while that of will varies geometrically. The more determined the foe, the less means he will require in order to succeed in the contest. The more constrained the task is, the greater the probability is of success with the means available. However, obviously if the means fall to zero, no amount of determination will suffice to make up the difference.
The general objective of unconventional warfare is to instill a belief that peace and security are not possible without compromise or concession. Specific objectives include inducement of war-weariness, curtailment of civilian standards of living and civil liberties associated with greater security demands, economic hardship linked to the costs of war; hopelessness to defend against assaults, fear, depression, and disintegration of morale. Two original definition are claiming: “The intent of U.S. Unconventional Warfare efforts is to exploit a hostile power’s political, military, economic, and psychological vulnerabilities by developing and sustaining resistance forces to accomplish U.S. strategic objectives.” or according to John F. Kennedy: “There is another type of warfare—new in its intensity, ancient in its origin—war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of by combat, by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It preys on unrest.
The ultimate goal of this type of warfare is to motivate an enemy to stop attacking or resisting even if it has the ability to continue. Failing this, a secondary objective can be to debilitate the enemy before a conventional attack.
Attrition warfare was based on symmetry of Means and Will
If a symmetric contest may be said to pit one adversary with great means and great will against another that also has both great means and great will, then an asymmetric contest might be expected to involve different combinations. The possibilities can be outlined in terms of a simple quadratic diagram.
Key in understanding of hybrid warfare concept is conflict is between one power that has great means and limited will and another that has limited means but great will. The result is likely to be far from being either certain or swift.
The success lies in attacking your opponent’s weaknesses and not his strengths and by extension, that warfare revolves about the creation and exploitation of asymmetries. There are really two different symmetries that might be exploited. One side has an advantage in means. Logically, we would expect that side to exploit its advantage by attacking and destroying the other’s more limited physical means, e.g. by pressing an essentially attrition-based approach. The other side has an advantage in will. Therefore, we would expect that side to exploit its advantage by attacking its opponent’s will to continue the struggle, e.g. an essentially effects-based approach focused on shaping the opponent’s behavior.
The impact of means upon the outcome tends to vary arithmetically, while that of will varies geometrically. The more determined the foe, the less means he will require in order to succeed in the contest. The more constrained the task is, the greater the probability is of success with the means available.
Does this mean that asymmetric forms of conflict have replaced the old attrition-based warfare driven by a symmetry of means and will? Actually no. This is mistake to think so. Asymmetric forms of conflict could serve to prelude of old attrition-based war after the goal of behavior shaping resulting from successful effect-based operations is achived. That is why for Western leaders it is naïve to believe that asymmetric conflict Russia with West can not grow to conventional conflict once the will as a key component of resistance has been suppressed. That is why the first and ultimate goal of Russia at this stage is the will of Western countries to resist. For this purpose the information and network operations is the key Russian strategy. That means that far more is behind Russian RT and informational operations.
There are many analytical reports of Russian think tanks on organization of network and informational operations. Many case studies and practical tools how to do efficiently information and network operations have been developed. In hybrid war news agencies, blogosphere and social networks are military tools (“actors” and “sensors’) in battlefield. The sooner the West understands this issue the better.
Pilosophic, theoretic and strategical approaches for informational and netwars have been formed among other authors by Alexander Dugin, the ideologist of the creation of a Eurasian empire that would oppose the “Atlantist interests”. Dugin, who is known for his fascist views, expounds his theory of warfare in his work – “Netwars – the threat of new generation”. Special portals have been established in order to exchange information and experience in informational and netwars (it contains also closed restricted part) exist. For example: Portal of netwar, Eurasia netwar subportal.
Another example, just one of many, can be used to illustrate the detailed and planned preparation of Russia for the conduct of network operations in social networks. Nikolay Starikov is an active proponent of information and netwars. He created schools for Russian “patriotic” bloggers and created a substantial volume of content for propaganda purposes and for the purpose of attacking “anti-Russian” views. He created the so-called Internet militia with blog for the exchange of information and experience. His latest books are used for brainwashing of “patriotic bloggers” including extracts from such works as “Ukraine, chaos and revolution – weapon of Dollar” and “Russia, Crimea, History”. An example of the resources developed by Nikolay Starikov can be found here: Nikolay Starikov blog; Nikolay Starikov Internet Militia: Nikolay Starikov traning for Russian “patriotic” bloggers (2011) - Video in Russian.
This is only one example. There are many similar organizations and authors working for Russian think tanks in this sphere.
What actions are possible to oppose Russia both symmetrically and asymmetrically and counteracting Russian information and network aggression?
First of all a shared vision of both West and Ukraine. This vision shall be based on understanding that Russia have been waging a war against not only Ukraine, but also the West using a wide array of means and tools. One of the most important elements is to strengthen and protect the will of the West and Ukraine (key target for effects-based operations) to stop Russia. Russia, by targeting the West’s will, will be able with lower resources to efficiently target the West, and first of all the EU until it reaches the point of compliance with Russia.
Ukraine is the first country to face this type of total hybrid war and has developed conclusions regarding how to fight a well-prepared enemy using new warfare tools and among them informational and network warfare. An understanding of the military priority is growing rapidly in Ukraine, but regarding the information and network priorities there is still a lack of understanding and action. In order to withstand this hybrid war efficiently Ukraine needs help from the West including non-governmental organizations.
Another point of concern is that volunteer efforts in the area of information and network activities could decrease as as the economic factor started to prevail and some volunteers are returning to business or to self-employment. Ukraine as a state provides no visible support and investments to NGOs and similar organization in the informational sector of Ukraine both for internal audience and for Western audience. The help from Western foundations and NGOs are not visible too as major point of application of projects and grants are conventional journalistic and mass media and not blogs and social networks.
If NGOs and groups supporting Ukraine and Ukrainian NGOs and groups will not coordinate their activities, not efficiently cooperate and will not get sufficient resources then they unfortunately will lose and remain at the best a nice intellectual passive discussion clubs. The question is just when it happens if not to change current approaches. One of the myth of network and information operations in peace time or hybrid wars that they apply only to a peer competitor (in this case Russia). This myth seems to be in minds of the Ukrainian defense ministry and government: if Russia spends so huge resources and funds on network and informational warfare that Ukraine is simply helpless and can do nothing. This is a very dangerous delusion. They forgot about being smarter and more efficient networking, coordination and efficient investments and fundraising. However even if we manage to be smart and possess huge will without investments, fundraising and resources (means) the information war against Russia could be lost Obviously if the means in asymmetric warfare equation (means*will2 ) fall to zero, no amount of determination will suffice to make up the difference.
The actions within mass-media and conventional journalistic domain have been discussed widely, but Internet informational resources were left without attention. What shall an organization or set of organizations do to efficiently counteract Russian information aggression against the West and Ukraine. The action shall be symmetrical compared to what is Russia is doing otherwise information and network war will be lost.
The actions described below proposed by “A strategy for damaging Russia’s propaganda machine” by Stephen Komarnyckyj,were intended as a starting point for discussion. The main principles on which they are based are:
mapping Russia’s propaganda resources- we need to develop a conceptual framework to do so which breaks the resources into categories such as
a) directly financed media agencies
b) directly paid agents of influence
c) Soviet legacy political parties who are still Russian centric in orientation
a shift away from uncoordinated initiatives towards pooling resources and coordinating actions;
a move away from reacting to the material produced by the propaganda apparatus to a focus on coordinated action to destroy the apparatus itself;
a focus on undermining Putin’s virtual world and its hired creators by exposing its – and their – dishonesty;
an emphasis on non-violent action. The strategy must adhere to best practice in terms of being anti-discriminatory. It is likely that the traditional ploy of depicting Ukrainians as Nazis will be utilised against any organised campaign. It is also possible that attempts will be made to discredit the campaign by planting agents who will make provocative, inflammatory statements. Indeed, Ukrainian politics has been affected by a number of right wing parties who may have been sponsored by Russia.
The document was only an initial outline of a strategy. The key messages are:
a planned campaign focusing on the structure of Putin’s propaganda apparatus and involving a coordinated effort will be more effect than sporadic, uncoordinated campaigns;
such a campaign could permanently and decisively ruin Russia’s propaganda apparatus;
the campaign must be part of a programme to decolonise the West’s perception of Ukraine;
the campaign must adhere to the principles of transparency, equality, and diversity both as a matter of principle and because this will neutralise several means by which Russia might attempt to discredit the attack on its propaganda apparatus.
In development of this initiative Euromiadan Press following discussions and exchange of opinions defined preliminary set of action to efficiently counteract Russian information aggression against West and Ukraine
Build up and maintenance of Internet informational resource for:
coordinating of activities in social networks in Ukraine and abroad to present truthful information on Ukraine;
presenting truthful information on Ukraine by translations
exposing Russian propaganda directed against Ukraine
exposing the links of Western organizations, foundations, agencies, NGOs, journalists, politicians with Russia (shall be based only based on proved information obtained through investigational journalism)
referral of information to Western journalists involved in presenting information on Ukraine
contacting Western think tanks with presentation of information on Ukraine
closing the gaps in analytics about Ukraine (cultural, historical, day-to-day life, news e.t.c. )
exposing Russian doctrines and strategies which were not covered by Western NGOs, agencies, consultancies, think tanks and Western mass media
presenting position of Ukrainian government in informal way through social networks on topics related to counteraction of Russia
presenting the views and information which government can not express directly due to diplomatic restrictions by the way of assumptions and analytics
Placing the information in order to study public reaction (“feeler”) to possible scenarios and actions
Networking
a planned campaign focusing on the structure of Putin’s propaganda apparatus and involving a coordinated effort
Build up and maintenance of Internet informational resource for (separately from news and informational project)
Informational war against Russia
Psychological war against Russia
Positive commenting in Western mass media and in social networks of selected topics and points (“Ukrainian trolls”)
presenting the views and information which government can not express directly due to diplomatic restrictions (in contrast to points in topic 1 – more radical views)
Placing the information in order to study public reaction (“feeler”) to possible scenarios and actions (in contrast to points in topic 1 – more radical views)
Disinformation for creating uncertainties for Russia to plan efficient actions against Ukraine
a planned campaign focusing on the structure of Putin’s propaganda apparatus and involving a coordinated effort
Academic activity
Study and presentation of Russian doctrines, strategies and motivations which were not adequately covered by Western NGOs, think tanks, agencies, consultancies and Western mass media
Study and presentation of new strategies and tactics employed by Russia in hybrid war against Ukraine (could be used by Russia further to destabilize the situation in Europe)
Cooperation with Western think tanks with purpose for them to better understand current Russian ideology and motivations
Research of current situation and moods in occupied territories
Psychological studies of refugees from occupied territories, Ukrainian servicemen participants of war against Russia and Russian – backed terrorist with the aim to develop optimal rehabilitation approaches
Investigational journalism:
Exposing Russian politicians, Ukrainian politicians working against Ukraine
Exposing the links of Western journalists and politicians with Russia (shall be based only based on proved information)
Exposing Russian involvement in activities against Ukraine
Exposing war crimes committed during hybrid war against Ukraine
Exposing Western lobbyists of Russia
Educational support, training
For Ukrainian NGOs, think tanks and activists:
o Efficient work through social networks, internet resources
o Trainings on software (wordpress, php, seo etc.)
o Sharing experience on particulars of hybrid war warfare
For Western NGOs, think tanks and experts:
o Russian ideology, doctrines and strategies and their applications
o Ukrainian culture and history
o Sharing experience on particulars of hybrid war warfare
Build up and maintenance of Internet popular educations resource explaining complicated topics in simple and entertaining format targeted for wide public and busy people (examples: http://www.vox.com/) for younger audience even comics could be used. Humor could be used (perhaps on a separate site) as an emotional means for exposing Russian propaganda (information connected with positive relaxing emotions is effective in engraining perceptions while avoiding critical evaluation).
In order to make these actions a reality Ukraine needs the help of Western non-governmental organizations and foundations to provide a coordinated network activities which will facilitate the destruction of Russia’s propaganda machine.
Written by Dr. Vitalii Usenko, MD, MBA, expert in international business management and communications and by Dmytro Usenko, student at Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto
Special thanks to Steve Komarnyckyi and Edmond Huet for their review advice and comments which were very valuable during preparation of this article
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/11/05/russian-hybrid-warfare-what-are-effect-based-network-operations-and-how-to-counteract-them/
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