Topic: Would you invest in Bitcoin if it only rose 10% per year from now on? (Read 556 times)

I think that as long as it increases everything is fine, calmly bitcoin is not going to increase 10% annually because it is not going to have less profitability than leaving the money in a bank, although in a bank it is not capable of reaching even 24% annually, the good thing about BTC is that it does not depend on centralized economic theories and controlled by entities like governments, here it moves by supply and demand, saying that it is going to grow 10% would be a fallacy, because obviously 105 can easily be obtained in a small impulse.

sure thing, that returns means it's still above inflation for most of the countries, but I still believe the bearish cycle and bullrun cycle will still persists, so we can occasionally buy the dips and DCA, so the return will be more than 10% per year.

even gold annual change just doesn't stick to 10%, it varies, same thing with BTC, if ever the market cap is nearing that of gold, I'm pretty sure it will still retain the intrinsic characteristic of having occasional bullruns.

i'm sure even after BTC market capitalization is as huge as gold, the annual change would still be 30-50%, need to take into account as well about the BTC lost over the course of decades, it does have the chance to influence the price of BTC and making it rise higher.

I think risk is subjective, that's why I mentioned Nouriel Roubini et al. If your risk profile is like his, then 10% surely isn't worth the risk.
However, on the other side of the spectrum, you'll still see people who think this 10% is as safe as gold. In this case, it's like a "guaranteed" 10% p.a.
There's no right or wrong in this since it's personal (as seen from the topic's title).

Any trader that knows how to read charts technically will agree with me that ranging markets are part of price action and this can never be a long term thing as sooner or later it will breakout...the problem Bitcoin is facing is that people have figured out the potential of these markets and will sell at any given bull to get some profit as they know some whales or institutional investors are waiting to buy discounted coins and price will easily bounce back.

But can this ranging market go on forever no, is the 10% raise each year feasible,  no as this isn't a one way  street when buyers and sellers and playing tag of war.

I can invest in BTC if it rose 10% per year no, trading short-term can give me more profits than holding long term.

Does it matter if it increases in just that bit in a year?

Something I’ve learnt from rich guys, you’re better off having your money in an investment than having it saved out somewhere.

I would definitely take up Bitcoin investment, the much I can with what I do know now of it. Having your money saved in some bank would not earn you the same value, not even 10% in a year.

Don’t forget, it’s out there to make you money and you don’t get taxed on your shares which your Bitcoin investment can count as that because, it could either make you profit or losses and as such, it becomes a way to just earn and be taxed on what you declare if need be.

If in fact the price of Bitcoin continues to increase at a rate of 10%, I am very worried that the number of Bitcoin holders will decrease and the number of sells will increase. If this cycle lasts for 3/4 years, the price of Bitcoin will drop completely, maybe its price will be like that of the creation age. Which will be one of the worst history of bitcoin world.

People are opportunists, and I am no exception. In my opinion, if the price of Bitcoin really goes to protrain, I will hold the first year and sell it the second year. I will start holding again after selling. And in the third year I will sell again.

Yep. Still looks pretty solid to me to profit from even if I consider that I do DCA. I'd actually much rather prefer a stable-ish market with small profits here and there in the long run instead of this huge pumps and dumps that most people want for a get-rich-quick idea. After al having a stable market means that the market will reliably last for a longer time, making long term investments to it much more valuable, which is what I'm primarily looking for with Bitcoin.

And I own it in every aspect. Who would hate that?

What we should have at the back of our minds while investing in bitcoin is that it is not a get rich scheme where we invest and begin to expect profits within a short interval of time. Perhaps, 1, 2, 3 years is even early for one to start considering the profits he has been able to make from his investment in bitcoin and moreover, it also depends on your level of accumulation that can tell how much profits you can be able to make if the price of bitcoin rises by 10% (assumption) each year and another thing we also need to understand is that we shouldn't be more concerned about the profits we can be able to make within the years of our investment in bitcoin but we should be proud we are HODLING a valuable asset that has the potentials to surge to an incredible milestone at a time we least expected due to market volatility and with the fact that the market hasn't experienced any extreme DIP should also give us confidence that we can never be at lost in our investment, so if peradventure our investment didn't get any much profits when our target is met based on the numbers of years we planned to HODL, then we should just see it as a kinda savings strategy.

As people are selling their bitcoins that's how others are seeing it as an opportunity to buy at a DIP when the price falls so there is no way the market wouldn't be balanced so definitely i will still choose to invest and hold bitcoin regardless of the percentage it tends to increase each year.

well the downside of 10% is 2x every 7 years is better if you are 20 than if you are 70.


but if you can put 300k into it at the age of 70 you get 30k a year income.

@fuguebtc, I'm not saying you don't have the right, gold is something that people value for thousands of years, real estate also has its value, so do market shares and bonds - but I would say that Bitcoin is very successfully establishing itself as a new and modern asset for those people who can understand its advantages over gold and real estate. It's true that we don't know what the future holds for us, but I think that Bitcoin has an advantage in the fact that it has a max supply and that it has a predetermined protocol for mining, and therefore there are no possible surprises from that side - while no one knows how much gold there actually is that is already mined, and even less as much as there is still to be mined.

In any case, no matter how profitable something is, it's always smart to look for alternatives - diversification has always been and will be the only way to reduce the risks that inevitably come with all investments.

I agree that every investment has risks but for me: if compare bitcoin with other assets like gold or real estate...bitcoin is still much riskier. An asset that is not even recognized worldwide and can be banned by governments at any time, the capitalization and liquidity of the entire market is just over $1 trillion, the price is easily manipulated by big players...Not to mention, bitcoin is too young, it is only 16 years old and for an asset, it cannot be called mature and safe enough. It is not like gold, which has existed for thousands of years and gone through many world wars, great depressions, the collapse of many economies...but still exists firmly until now.

Everyone has different views on investment and I find everyone is willing to invest in it even if the return is just 10% per annum. But for me, if the risk level remains as high as it is now but the returns drop significantly, I will not invest in it anymore. Or if there is any more potential investment, I would not hesitate to move there.

A certainty of at least 10% gain in BTC would double its price probably despite that idea being contradictory, we can be sure the demand would rise put it that way.  Its already a positive asset despite being so volatile and unknown in its base characteristics.

Add some certainty or stability and BTC is greatly enhanced in its outlook and appeal to a wider population of users.   We always have the gamblers in Bitcoin right from the start, risk takers have been here but thats not the broad appeal BTC could have in the end.

I always say this when BTC is going sideways, drifting, positive then selling off and people lose patience and declare it negative and sell even.   The underlying base price is given some positive when we drift, as we accumulate volume at these higher prices especially it will turn out to be of benefit to BTC longer term imo.   Only 10% is more then it appears, theres never a singular price in any market it varies on delivery etc.  But bullish even in slight quiet markets is fair.

10% is way more better than on what banks do offer on which in speaking on per annum basis on which hands down or there's no doubt that you would be saving up your money in Bitcoin form.

Just like on what you have said that this isnt how Bitcoin or crypto works and even if we do speak about "What If's?" then it will something that drive out people to go for another venture.
We do know that people doesnt really like on really just that having on potential 10% per year kind of gain but rather it is really that something more better.

People will really be just that basically be trying out to find that could give out that x2 of their money or even more.This what makes that this crypto market do really looks interesting because of that kind of
probability or opportunity that does it give.

If it wasn't really be on this way then we wont really be seeing that huge funds that will really be flowing into this market. This isnt something that you can be able to compare or
trying out to look it similar on what those traditional investments or set-ups do really give out or offer about.

What exact risk are you talking about? Are you afraid of the possibility that someone will hack Bitcoin, that governments around the world will ban trading through CEX or maybe ban mining? Maybe you're afraid of some other risks that I didn't mention - but realistically, most investments are risky, especially if the person who invests is not familiar with what exactly he's doing.

For me personally, the benefits of investing in BTC are still far greater than all possible risks, and I don't think that will change in the near future.

Yes, if bitcoin's risk remains the same but the return drops to just 10% per year, it will no longer be attractive. Personally I would not be foolish enough to invest in an asset with high risk but negligible profit margin. A fixed profit of 10% will be an attractive profit when compared to bank deposits, business...but people forget to consider the level of risk, if the level of risk is still high then it is not worth it for us to trade off.

But if bitcoin was as safe as gold or stocks and returned 10% per year, it wouldn't be a bad investment. But I will not focus most of my time and money on bitcoin as I am now, instead I will look for another potential market.

Yes, I would still invest even if it only rose by 10% as long as that percentage increase is consistent then I feel it's a good investment to embark on instead of engaging on investments that doesn't have an assurance. For someone like me who save a lot, the interest I get on my annual savings are not even up to 10% most can be like 5% to 7% annually but I still do them regardless because I am not attracted to the possibility of outsized profits and I prefer it to anything involving volatility.

I have never pretended that profit is not important, but I have also always believed that we must not forget why Bitcoin was created and that its greatest value is precisely in the way it works, and that way allows everyone to be their own bank and make a transaction anytime with anyone in the world. Likewise, Bitcoin has proven to be an excellent hedge against inflation in the last ten years, and as far as I know, it has overtaken all possible assets in this regard.

I would also be ready to accept some losses on an annual basis, but I will repeat that we who have been in all this for a long time and have invested at much lower prices than today have much more tolerance for volatility than some new investors.

People who say no to this have absolutely no clue what the yare missing out. Having a stable 10% return, and guaranteed one, for 40 years, means you are going to be wealthy. I mean of course there are people who will miss that chance too, because they have no clue what they are doing, but I can guarantee you that you are going to make a huge return when you do this for long term. I can start investing today, and be a millionaire by year 20, and have everything I can dream of, it's just that simple.

How many people could say the same, how many people in the world who worked for 20 years or more, and have a million dollars? Not many. You know what's the good part about this theory? Bitcoin will continue to average more than 10% a year. Sure it can have bad years, but if you check on 5 year periods, it will have 10% return per year averages then. This is why we need to keep investing, we are not late to the party at all, we are still early and we gotta just keep investing.

But you need to consider also the fact that the guarantee of increasing 10% per year is not 100%. Because we don't know what the future holds for this market. The possibility is limitless but how about when a certain technology becomes obsolete.
You can confidently talk such decision if you also have strong belief that this market will continuously survive and improve its developments. The rate is quite big if you compare it with traditional banking. So if there's a guarantee of that price increase each year, definitely, a lot will invest on this market. However, there's no certainty for this price increase because this market is still unpredictable up until now.

Finally a fundamentals-based opinion I agree fully, Bitcoin doesn't lose its unique freedom-related advantages (censorship resistance, "be your own bank") if the APY decreases.

I would thus be even a bit tolerant to small losses per year (if this bearish phase isn't too long) for this reason, but of course, BTC has to stay somewhat valuable as well.

In my scenario, i.e. when Bitcoiners became "accustomed" to smaller returns but the pattern is stable for 2-3 years, the risk of catastrophic bear markets would probably be a bit lower than now. The past 70-90% bear markets were simply the other side of the FOMOish bubbles, as they were triggered by big waves of profit taking when the price increase in the euphoria phase of the bull market was perceived as an exaggeration.

In the "10 % anually" scenario, profit taking would probably take place in a less concentrated fashion. People would take profit when they need money and not when their fear rises that the bubble could burst at any time.