Topic: Would you invest in Bitcoin if it only rose 10% per year from now on? - page 2. (Read 402 times)

The future of Bitcoin price is uncertain, because no one can say what Bitcoin price will be until now. But by looking at past price history we can definitely be sure about future prices. It mentions a 10% average price benefit over a few years, though uncertain. So I think the benefit will be several times more than keeping money in the bank from this Bitcoin, because if you can invest now according to the past price demand, then surely you can get future results. That's why we must take risks, knowing the only risk is that those willing to take the risk in investing in Bitcoin will only reap the future benefits, and we can assume that it is generally safe.

I agree with you, for an asset you give a 10% Roi per year means its really a valid asset, banks don't give you that, even if you get that from banks in our dreams its still a fixed Roi unlike bitcoin that can give you way more than that.

in the case of the "negative" as you expressed, might just be a retracement on chat.

From all indications bitcoin has proven to give ZERO losses when invested in.

1
1.1
1.21
1.331
1.4641 four year return
1.61051
1.771561
1.9487171 seven years time

Only a fool would say no to 2x your value every 7 years.

Until now the results of the poll are unanimously positive, i.e. everybody voted for the two "Yes" options. What I wonder of course is if this is only because of "socially expected" behaviour.

I would love some well fundamented "No" answers as well

Some remarks to the posts until now:

1) Some have mentioned that they would invest if the 10% were guaranteed. I would however not go as far as that. In the OP I wrote about a scenario where we had 2 or 3 years with an average price increase of 10%. So some risk would be still involved.

The scenario I had in mind is that the 10% pattern would be approximately seen by a part of the community as a relatively "safe" pattern, but not a "guaranteed" one. For example, influencers would talk about the 10% pattern like they are now talking about the "4-year cycle" or "Stock 2 Flow". But there would no entity guaranteeing to buy all dips in years with negative price evolution.

2) Some mentioned the comparison to the stock market. I think this is indeed an interesting comparison. The scenario I had in mind is basically: "Bitcoin behaves like a major stock market index", or like an (stock) ETF with a portfolio comprising several sectors of the economy.

Taking into account these two clarifications, however, I personally would still look at fundamental data for that decision, like on-chain and L2 transactions, adoption by merchants, and user base studies like the ones published by Crypto.com and Triple A.

10% per year is already huge!!!
If you ever get this constantly, this is better than putting your hard-earned money in your bank. Plus in the long term, you will still earn much because of compounding.

But in reality, this is not how Bitcoin works, sometimes we can get more than 10%, or sometimes is negative .

I have been investing in the S&P 500 for many years, which has that average annual return. Investing in bitcoin if it only gave me the same as the S&P I could keep doing it but maybe I would just keep holding and accumulate more than the Nasdaq 100, which I started investing in, and it has a historical return of 13% average annual return.

If I'm going to keep accumulating bitcoin it's because I think many years down the road it's going to give higher returns than that 10%.

The truth is we invest in bitcoin and we all expect to earn at least x2 or more x5, x10...many even believe that bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars in the coming years. Overall, people's expectations are high and that's why they invest in bitcoin. So I would be skeptical of anyone who says that even if the price of bitcoin only increased by 10% per year, they would still invest in bitcoin.

It's no surprise that many people still say they would invest in bitcoin with that kind of return because it's still better than putting money in the bank. But I believe if we're being honest with each other, I don't think there will be many people investing in bitcoin anymore.


For me, if that happens and there is no investment that gives better returns at that time, I will still invest in bitcoin but if there is any investment that has the potential to give better returns than bitcoin. I would not hesitate to choose it over continuing to invest in bitcoin.

In addition, it also depends on some other factors such as my capital, risk level...I will consider and be flexible according to the situation at that time.

I voted for sure.  
10% APY is great.
With that percentage, you will have a hard time getting those gains somewhere else. And if that's a guaranteed gain, everyone is saying that it's still one of the best choices out of all the assets and investments that we can ever see and I agree with that. Most of the shares or stocks that we can choose are also volatile so that 10% is still a win. I can be sitting pretty while waiting for 0.8333% gain monthly.

If it's guaranteed 10% p.a then it's still an awesome deal. In comparison, the money market or bonds can yield about 6% p.a in my country and it's "guaranteed" in the sense of low risk, except if there's a financial crisis or whatever doomsday scenario. The problem is that the risk associated with Bitcoin is still the same (from the eye of Nouriel Roubini et al.) so 10% p.a might not be worth it considering the risk.

I'd rather buy the dip and sell at the rebound though if sideways is the new normal.

I voted for: For sure!.

I mean it's the only crypto that I put majority of my portfolio, and so even if it will just give me 10% per year, I think it is still good as compare if you are going to invest on some altcoins that the risk is too high. Or it is like gambling per se with those meme coins and other hype coins.

Still better returns on some banks though, or at least it the margin of profit can still cover inflation on some major countries.

I will still invest in Bitcoin even if the increase of the price only 10% per year. I don't mind to continue my DCA because I have the other ways to earn more profit which is I can use trading to gain the profit. Besides that, we have altcoin that can be alternative to make a profit although that will not easy to pick the right coins. If the 10%+ really holds for 2-3 years, I will not have a problem because that means, I have much time to running my DCA and accumulate more Bitcoin so when the bull run comes, I will be more ready to sell at the new ATH.

Yep I still invest in Bitcoin even it's give 10% per year return, I would consider it as a gold.

But, I won't put all of my money on Bitcoin since it's no longer profitable, I will choose to invest in altcoins or smaller stocks which can give higher return.

Personally I think average inflation rate is 10% in most of countries, even they write 4%-6%, even Bitcoin didn't make profit, but it can still hedging against inflation.

Still better than stocks, bank deposits, bonds/RTB, treasure notes/bills, REITs and other traditional assets that would give like 3%-10% annual profit.

So, in short, I'd still be holding it and I don't have something to do with it yet and that's why it's best to be kept there. But take note that 10% would be higher when we're holding more and that holdings came from the 2018 and other bearish years.

It's still one of the best performing assets out there, maybe for this decade if not in the century.

The Stock Market gives an average of around 7%-8% return annually and if Bitcoin will give us 10% per year, that would still be higher than the other popular asset classes out there including the stock market.

I would say that I will still invest into Bitcoin if the 10% annual return would be consistent. Well, I know that it will not be because whenever we enter the bear market, so does most of the asset classes. If this happens though, I will have to recalculate and readjust my overall portfolio. Instead of putting more into Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general, I would put more on Stocks that are giving dividends annually because that would be much safer at least. 10% is still a high increase considering how much other asset classes like stocks, bonds and others are giving on a yearly basis.

Well, I know that this is hypothetical only like you said OP, and we know that this will not happen... or at least not in many years because of the speculative feature of it that you said already.

If the price of Bitcoin increases by even 10% per year then it is definitely possible to profit by holding it for a long term in the future. Because instead of keeping money in the bank, if we invest in Bitcoin for a long time, then we will get better returns from Bitcoin investment. Since if we look at the long history of Bitcoin price in the past then Bitcoin has only gone up and the price has increased since the beginning, so if we assume that Bitcoin is growing at a rate of approximately 10% every year from the present time then the next 10 to 15 years will have huge benefits.  .

And I added some more strategies it is very easy to get more and more profit in Bitcoin every year, because Bitcoin dips, if bought at the right time and hold for long time, it is possible to get 10%+ more profit in Bitcoin in next few years. 
 Because we should buy dips every few times every month when bitcoin is dumping then we will make huge profit at the end of the year.

Thanks for all replies already. The poll participation could however be a bit higher

The reason I started this poll is because eventually, Bitcoin's price will increase with a slower rhythm. We don't know when this will happen, it could be already this year or next year, albeit it's unlikely (see the recent spike to 71k+).

However, if people expect too much and only invest in Bitcoin to "gamble", then eventually if such a slowdown to 10% or a similar number per year happens, there could be danger that a big part of the investors will sell and move on to other risk assets, e.g. back to stocks, or to altcoins.

But that probably will not happen if the fundamentals still stay solid. This means: if Bitcoin gets really adopted, i.e. if we se a growth in the likely user base along with the number of merchants and service providers. And not only the volume on exchanges. In this case, a 10%-returning Bitcoin would be, in my opinion, an excellent investment.

Currently we are not there still. Speculative usage is still too prevalent. And that's also one of the reason why in some groups Bitcoin has a quite bad image: they think it's a tool for rich people to get even richer, without social benefits.

For these reasons my vote also went to "Only if the fundamentals are solid." Solid fundamentals means, as I wrote, that we can "feel" and also measure an organic growth, not only a speculative growth.

It wont be 10% in every country even if its 10% in some, every population's perspective varies as do their own local economies.   Also there is a benefit from a slower moving price, stability in price prediction probably aids good business.
 Agreements made to supply can suffer less adjustment if the value relatively stable like that, I believe it actually encourages commerce and so usage of BTC across the world.  Its ironic in a positive way as this would stimulate BTC fundamentals most likely.   Price in every market is not a perfect description of value, literally the market can demand a lower price even while that product becomes more useful and in technology this is not that unusual.

This is a very big profit if you are speaking from the angle a banker because not too many investment can guarantee 10% profits per year. There are several reasons I will invest in Bitcoin with 10% per year even if I know other investment that can give a little above that. One of the key reason is that Bitcoin has liquidity far more than even real estate and other asset classes. You can easily cash out the funds without stress unlike when you want to sell a property. In addition, Bitcoin gives me complete control of my investment and the only effort I need to put is in securing my assets. There are many other reasons that makes Bitcoin a beautiful option even with 10% increase per annum.

Yes, even if Bitcoin doesn't go higher than 10% in value per year from now on I will still be investing in it and holding that investment for at least 10 years or more to get better profits. I'm someone who believes that Bitcoin could reach way higher values in future, and if that becomes a reality then even if it grows by 10% per year and also some extra growth due to dip purchasing then there's chance that I might end up with more than 10% profit per year because of dip buying.

I would also trade Bitcoin as there's chance that I might earn more profit with trading then holding it for a long year but I'll still be accumulating it for long term holding and also dividing some money to trading it so I can earn profits no matter if it grows by 10% per year. The crypto market is still quite volatile and even Bitcoin is still very volatile but even if it gives only 10% profit per year I will still invest in it.

In the stock exchange market, there are assets that rarely could give 2% to 4% ROI per annum. So for Bitcoin to give such a return then it's a good asset to invest in right now. We shouldn't be expecting 100% or 50% return from Bitcoin every year. That is not how it is designed. From past event it has done a lot more better so if the pattern changes now then its more for the greater good. It will give more opportunities to people like me to be able to afford some fractions of it before it goes higher than this.