In fact, over the entire history of Bitcoin on-exchange trading, this method would have only given signals for 6 (!) trading pairs.
Right now, there's a good chance a 'buy' will be signaled within a week or two.
Can you elaborate?
Topic: Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm) - page 14. (Read 24717 times)
Great thread, will definitely keep an eye on it
Can you elaborate?
Can you elaborate?
Hodling is still better for whales because whales cannot avoid paying taxes. Short term capital gains tax is not nice in most countries and would drastically reduce the gains you project here.
Excellent thread. Well done. Like others, I shall follow it with interest as you post your first buy signal 
mid-term trades are the best
Oh yes; although I use like 20% of my stash for that still gives enough profit to have a coffee.. or two.. or a car. But you do need lots of patience. Some kind of robot to tell you what to do may help discipline, so GJ oda, interesting what your robowhale has to say (although if I were it I'd be screaming buy buy since last week).
Interesting experiment! I'm going to stick around for this.
...That said, while I posted about other experimental methods before, this is one where I'm inclined to put some money on the signals myself, because of what seems to be a pretty good risk/reward ratio (I would probably set a stop loss in addition to the signals, however).
Looks good, will have some of that.
How tight a stop? What has the maximum drawdown been over the test timeframe?
Will you posting your buy or sell signals here? I don't understand all those chart thingies, and its tempting to see Bitcoin at $1200, and then at $275, and wonder why couldn't I profit from it.
A thread which just tells me to buy or sell a few times a year is ideal for me.
A thread which just tells me to buy or sell a few times a year is ideal for me.
Yes. That was the plan of this "public experiment". I'll post about a new signal once it comes in (chance for that to happen in principle: every 6h. Right now, there's a good chance a 'buy' will be signaled within a week or two.)
Keep in mind though the critical remark by Ryn above: while the backtest might look promising, there is also only a small number of total signals (by design), which means future profitability of the parameters is less certain than in a method that has more data points.
That said, while I posted about other experimental methods before, this is one where I'm inclined to put some money on the signals myself, because of what seems to be a pretty good risk/reward ratio (I would probably set a stop loss in addition to the signals, however).
Very interesting, thanks for sharing
Looking forward to see when the signal will shift
Looking forward to see when the signal will shift
Great post, This is exactly what I was looking for, although I started doing this very late... the only difference for my method is I take profits and only try to keep the initial investment (BTC term), for example if I invested $3000 @ $10 and sold all when the price went to $200 and bought back only 300BTC @ $90, basically the result would be the same like holding the 300 BTC and on top of it profits from selling high and buying low.
mid-term trades are the best
mid-term trades are the best
Will you posting your buy or sell signals here? I don't understand all those chart thingies, and its tempting to see Bitcoin at $1200, and then at $275, and wonder why couldn't I profit from it.
A thread which just tells me to buy or sell a few times a year is ideal for me.
A thread which just tells me to buy or sell a few times a year is ideal for me.
nice work, ty
Make money like doing it? I doubt 
I really love this strong hodl approach while at the same time taking advantage of the bear market. Good job Oda!
I am curious, could this swing trading also work in an altcoin market?
Would be interesting if you could backtest your algorithm for example in the litecoin market.
Again, good job and a great read!
I am curious, could this swing trading also work in an altcoin market?
Would be interesting if you could backtest your algorithm for example in the litecoin market.
Again, good job and a great read!
Nice find, oda!
Is this something that can be scaled down to a shorter time frame, if only to have a larger testing sample for sustainability? I'm curious to see how this works out. Watching closely!
Is this something that can be scaled down to a shorter time frame, if only to have a larger testing sample for sustainability? I'm curious to see how this works out. Watching closely!
Thanks Ryn. Means something coming from you. Also, excellent question, cutting right to the core:
Yes, the low number of signals also means it's harder to rule out that the results were just produced by overfitted parameters.
I'd argue that, watching where the signals fall in particular, it is unlikely that this is the case, as the 'sell' reliably comes in around the 1st half or so of any major trend breakdown, and the 'buy' reliable comes early into each lasting recovery, but that's just my "qualitative" judgement, not a quantifiable result I admit.
As for a higher frequency version: It should be easy enough to increase frequency for the momentum portion of the method, just a search for parameters with different constraints. The other part of the method is more difficult to adjust for a higher signal frequency, I would have to think about it a bit. ... As I write this, I have an idea maybe how to go about it. Will report back when I have a test for the adjusted method.
You've got your own monkey! Congrats! Have you given a name to him?
Hehe, the other monkey had a bit too many 'buy' signals during the last months right in the middle of a downtrend, though it looks like his last call before 275 might come true. I suspect he's using more of a mean reversion way of thinking, which would make his monkey more aggressive than what I'm trying here, which is inherently conservative.
A name?
How about LazyWhale™?
Nice find, oda!
Is this something that can be scaled down to a shorter time frame, if only to have a larger testing sample for sustainability? I'm curious to see how this works out. Watching closely!
Is this something that can be scaled down to a shorter time frame, if only to have a larger testing sample for sustainability? I'm curious to see how this works out. Watching closely!
You've got your own monkey! Congrats! Have you given a name to him?
Not drinking tonight. Just up late trying to work but struggling. Procrastination is a killer. I might have a camomile tea I think.
When I first heard about BTC they were about $0.30 and you could (just) CPU mine. I started to set it up but got distracted. I think the fact I missed that mining opportunity might have made want to "put it right" hehe. I had all sorts of plans of running solar arrays in spain to power a mining farm. Mind blowing how fast it all moved. Surely some indication of what is to come if market penetration of the product follows the same pattern...?
Anyway that little black box that cost me 25BTC is now straining out 0.6mBTC a day, which makes me want to run solo to see if I get lucky but TGB says its a 100 years for me to find a block!?
Watch me hit a third before the year is out!
When I first heard about BTC they were about $0.30 and you could (just) CPU mine. I started to set it up but got distracted. I think the fact I missed that mining opportunity might have made want to "put it right" hehe. I had all sorts of plans of running solar arrays in spain to power a mining farm. Mind blowing how fast it all moved. Surely some indication of what is to come if market penetration of the product follows the same pattern...?
Anyway that little black box that cost me 25BTC is now straining out 0.6mBTC a day, which makes me want to run solo to see if I get lucky but TGB says its a 100 years for me to find a block!?
Watch me hit a third before the year is out!
Trying to get into mining has probably been the worst decision I made throughout it all. At the time it made sense. There's that hindsight again
It was purely me being too lazy to set up a mining rig that prevented me from pre-ordering a BF lab or joining one of the ASIC batch orders last year.
Can you imagine how much I reward my laziness these days for making that call?!
EDIT: what are *you* drinking, btw? JW BL for me
...hold on a sec... Legendary!? When did that happen! 
They must let anyone in thesedays. All I ever did was trash talk spec forum. Legendary... lol.
They must let anyone in thesedays. All I ever did was trash talk spec forum. Legendary... lol.
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