Topic: Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm) - page 9. (Read 24717 times)
bull is back!
First signal, that ends my hopes of sub $300 prices. I am going to wait for a few more days to try and catch any dips.
full member
Activity: 660
Merit: 101
Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
publication, shmublication: what matters is if it makes you money.
if you did hit upon some way to systematically earn profits, by the time it is published it won't be reproducible anymore, and all that would matter was the money you made while it lasted. (unless, of course, you are an academic, and your income stream is affected directly or indirectly by whether you get one more paper published.)
if you did hit upon some way to systematically earn profits, by the time it is published it won't be reproducible anymore, and all that would matter was the money you made while it lasted. (unless, of course, you are an academic, and your income stream is affected directly or indirectly by whether you get one more paper published.)
I've been holding out for lower to buy back a bit more but it feels exactly like waiting for $1 back in bitcoinica days. That never happened and instead bitcoinica swallowed my fiat.
So this time round I'll pin my actions on someone else's indicator so I can blame them when it all goes wrong ;)
Everything I have on bitstamp has just been converted to BTC. It's feeling like about time....
So this time round I'll pin my actions on someone else's indicator so I can blame them when it all goes wrong ;)
Everything I have on bitstamp has just been converted to BTC. It's feeling like about time....
Haha, you bastard. So now I have blood on my hands, huh? Well, let's see how it goes. Right now yesterday's little rally that pushed the signal change looks like it's already losing steam again. Clench your ass cheeks, that's all I'm saying :)
Is this close? http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2lxkqk/daily_discussion_tuesday_november_11_2014/clz4jez
Closer than any other suggestions :) MA50 is part of the signal conditions.
Oda,
When, if ever, will you share your indicator? Why such a secret? I could understand if it was a weekly trading signal that you didnt want to give to the masses, but this is long term signal. Its harmless to let us know.
By letting us know we might even be able to help you refine it. Although, if not, we could just praise you more precisely for your brilliance.
Either way its a win win!
When, if ever, will you share your indicator? Why such a secret? I could understand if it was a weekly trading signal that you didnt want to give to the masses, but this is long term signal. Its harmless to let us know.
By letting us know we might even be able to help you refine it. Although, if not, we could just praise you more precisely for your brilliance.
Either way its a win win!
I don't know... I'm an intellectual hoarder? :D Seriously though: I don't think the exact choice of parameters is that remarkable, but the way I found them is maybe novel. Finance is not my field, so I have no idea yet how to go about it, but I think, somewhere far in the back of my mind, I'm wondering if I can maybe squeeze a publication out of that aspect. There, I said it.
Oda,
When, if ever, will you share your indicator? Why such a secret? I could understand if it was a weekly trading signal that you didnt want to give to the masses, but this is long term signal. Its harmless to let us know.
By letting us know we might even be able to help you refine it. Although, if not, we could just praise you more precisely for your brilliance.
Either way its a win win!
When, if ever, will you share your indicator? Why such a secret? I could understand if it was a weekly trading signal that you didnt want to give to the masses, but this is long term signal. Its harmless to let us know.
By letting us know we might even be able to help you refine it. Although, if not, we could just praise you more precisely for your brilliance.
Either way its a win win!
I've been holding out for lower to buy back a bit more but it feels exactly like waiting for $1 back in bitcoinica days. That never happened and instead bitcoinica swallowed my fiat.
So this time round I'll pin my actions on someone else's indicator so I can blame them when it all goes wrong
Everything I have on bitstamp has just been converted to BTC. It's feeling like about time....
So this time round I'll pin my actions on someone else's indicator so I can blame them when it all goes wrong
Everything I have on bitstamp has just been converted to BTC. It's feeling like about time....
Looking forward to seeing how this develops!
Excellent. Good luck Oda.
full member
Activity: 660
Merit: 101
Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
EDIT. didnt read the disclaimer 3 very carefully...
Hehe, thanks for adding that.
Yes. Assuming we are indeed going up, a good discretionary trader might want to wait for a dip first. But that's really not what this signal is intended to do: ideally, it fires once every few months, into a larger up- or downtrend, with little consideration for where price is in the smaller resolution - because the next signal (if things work out as intended) is at a price so far away anyway that the small difference of the dip doesn't matter. At least, that's how it worked in the back-test.
In other words, oda.krell may have built a better bull trap that I could. 
And one more important notice, even if this would mean that THE bottom is in, it does not mean that it would be good to buy NOW, could be that we are short term overpriced and better time to buy comes soon.
EDIT. didnt read the disclaimer 3 very carefully...
EDIT. didnt read the disclaimer 3 very carefully...
Here we are. First 'live' signal change surviving a period close.
Important reminder: read the disclaimers and explanations at the end of the post before doing anything stupid.
LW v3.10 signals BUY at 372 USD, from previous SELL at 623 USD on 2014-07-21 (back-test only).
Disclaimer 1: None of the above is financial advice. It's a public "experiment" of a highly speculative algorithmic trading method. I'm posting the results for your entertainment, and my own. Anything else is your own decision and risk.
Disclaimer 2: The signal has been quite profitable in the back-test, but the total low number of signals (by design), and few corresponding trades, means there is very little statistical power behind the results. If you feel there is a substantial risk the results so far are due to chance, you are probably correct.
Disclaimer 3: Even though all BUY signals have been profitable so far in the back-test, in more than one case price dropped briefly after a BUY signal, while the method continued holding BTC, before it went up again.
This is to say, Disclaimer 2 warns you that there is a risk the signal is not profitable at all, while Disclaimer 3 warns you that the signal might be profitable in the longer run (a month or two), but could incur a loss in USD terms at first.
Important reminder: read the disclaimers and explanations at the end of the post before doing anything stupid.
LW v3.10 signals BUY at 372 USD, from previous SELL at 623 USD on 2014-07-21 (back-test only).
Disclaimer 1: None of the above is financial advice. It's a public "experiment" of a highly speculative algorithmic trading method. I'm posting the results for your entertainment, and my own. Anything else is your own decision and risk.
Disclaimer 2: The signal has been quite profitable in the back-test, but the total low number of signals (by design), and few corresponding trades, means there is very little statistical power behind the results. If you feel there is a substantial risk the results so far are due to chance, you are probably correct.
Disclaimer 3: Even though all BUY signals have been profitable so far in the back-test, in more than one case price dropped briefly after a BUY signal, while the method continued holding BTC, before it went up again.
This is to say, Disclaimer 2 warns you that there is a risk the signal is not profitable at all, while Disclaimer 3 warns you that the signal might be profitable in the longer run (a month or two), but could incur a loss in USD terms at first.
Not yet, but I'm watching it like a hawk
Next calculation period closes in an hour or two, will update if there's a signal change surviving the close.
Next calculation period closes in an hour or two, will update if there's a signal change surviving the close.
Did the recent mini pump create a buy signal?
Nope. No change in signal yet. I should probably be careful speculating about the likely change regions... last time I did that, my inner bull got the better of me. I'll do it anyway :P
From ~$360 on, a buy becomes quite likely. Price at least staying above $320 doesn't "destroy" the current setup of a possible buy. Falling below $320 and a buy signal moves further away. The above regions are only valid for some time, as they are slightly changing each day.
From ~$360 on, a buy becomes quite likely. Price at least staying above $320 doesn't "destroy" the current setup of a possible buy. Falling below $320 and a buy signal moves further away. The above regions are only valid for some time, as they are slightly changing each day.
So Mr. Krell, your algorithm hasn't signaled a buy yet?
The upward movement seems to be losing steam. I guess if it can survive till next week without falling we might get a signal.
The upward movement seems to be losing steam. I guess if it can survive till next week without falling we might get a signal.
I don't know why you call it "algorithm", do you really have an actual code written to monitor the change ? because as far as I can tell anyone could see the buy signal only by watching the 1W chart, a reversal would clearly appear there without the need to write any kind of code, just observing would be enough to do the job.
2 weeks ago people where excited when we went from 275 to 417, they called reversal and the moon, while it was only a good but very risky trading opportunity... everything shows that we are still heading down.
http://i.imgur.com/C5x2jBh.png
2 weeks ago people where excited when we went from 275 to 417, they called reversal and the moon, while it was only a good but very risky trading opportunity... everything shows that we are still heading down.
http://i.imgur.com/C5x2jBh.png
1) Yes. When I say algorithm I mean it's a piece of code.
2) Glad to hear you can do this by eye. If you would have read the original post, you would have seen that I already said that this method isn't intended to outperform a good discretionary trader. So, if you are one of those, good on you.
How about this: the point of this "public experiment" is to keep track of exact targets (i.e. the price at which buy and sell signal will come in). Let us know the exact targets of your trade pairs and we can compare the results in a year from now.
I don't know why you call it "algorithm", do you really have an actual code written to monitor the change ? because as far as I can tell anyone could see the buy signal only by watching the 1W chart, a reversal would clearly appear there without the need to write any kind of code, just observing would be enough to do the job.
2 weeks ago people where excited when we went from 275 to 417, they called reversal and the moon, while it was only a good but very risky trading opportunity... everything shows that we are still heading down.
2 weeks ago people where excited when we went from 275 to 417, they called reversal and the moon, while it was only a good but very risky trading opportunity... everything shows that we are still heading down.
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