Topic: Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm) - page 8. (Read 24752 times)

No, I'm afraid that won't work. Ryn asked a similar question in the beginning: while I have vague idea how to make it scale down, the actual implementation still escapes me, so I can't test it on smaller scales yet (or rather, the results suck)

following

OK, we're cool. I have a suggestion for you, if you are willing to back test your indicator on some 2013 MtGox data (Bistamp looks "washed out").
If your indicator can use a shorter time frame (about 4x shorter), then it might flip from red to green about the 17th May and the 17th June 2013.

That worked out well

Being too greedy by half. Oh well, will wait for a pullback now.

Yes, sorry, overreacted a bit. See last comment.

It makes sense if you think it a bit deeper. I agreed that oda.krell's signal works, but the interpretation is different.
And I don't understand why he got pissed off at me, because in his own words: "...similar way to how May played out".
The May uptrend topped at about 680$ and then deflated to 275$, that's about 60%. If the current uptrend
just topped at 454$ (it may go a bit higher the next days, I don't know, so I'll wait a a few days with my scenario), then
a 60% correction would bottom at about 182$, and about 3 - 4 months from now.

If you want to see a less bearish EW opinion than mine, RyNinDaCleM believes in a double bottom in the second half of January:


PS. The mistake I made with the EW count was to count the April movements as one sub-wave moving fast and furious, when it probably was just an extension.

For fairness sake, I get now what tzupy meant :
Under the assumption of his preferred EW count(s), my signal is mid long bearish because it means a more drastic bottom will form eventually, correct?

My point is then, without subscribing to any additional assumptions, a momentum based signal like mine, or weekly sar, is bullish. But I can see your point, even when I don't share it.

That's OK, nobody wins it each time, it's just that your words about Oda's daily signal that doesn't make any sense.

Both short term bullish count and bearish count were invalidated in quick succession, this means there was a flaw in the longer term count.
When I'll finish the new count guesstimates I'll post it here. I genuinely believed wave C would end soon, I was wrong.

You said we were going to double top at $420 but we just smashed through that, how's that bearish now?

That's some serious bullshit honestly.

I don't know what kind of signal Oda made but if daily MA based signal is turned green than it's nonsense to say that is midterm bearish.

Why yes, listen to this man, he's absolutely right of course:

Just like the usual interpretation of a failure to break daily MA20 is hugely bullish ("if the market is weak, it's actually strong"), or how a green MACD histogram candle is seen as a strong sell signal by experienced traders.

In other news, some people don't know when to close their overleveraged short position.

 

EDIT: In case it's not that clear, the above is me being sarcastic. I don't agree with the poster that the lw buy signal is actually 'bearish', and I was making up wrong interpretations of signals as a way to make fun of his.
After thinking about it  a bit more, while I still don't agree at least I can see where he's coming from (basically, he thinks if we go up already now, we'll have to come down harder a bit later)

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Glad to see the move up that triggered the signal change didn't fizzle out immediately, as I feared it would at first.

Thanks also for the kind words by some in here. However, it's only fair to remind everyone: the actual (first) test of the signal's profitability is when the corresponding 'sell' comes in.

I personally hope it's going to be at a substantially higher price level, but in either case, I'll report it when it comes in. For now, probably best not to fight the market too stubbornly, i.e. go short if you want, but I wouldn't get married to any short position currently. At least mid-term, the trend is more likely to be up than down in my opinion, and the most obvious interpretation of the LW momentum signal is just that, really.

Out of curiosity what is wave C? are you referring to Elliott TA?

Maybe most people don't understand, but oda.krell's indicator turning green now is actually bearish medium term.
It means that the market hasn't yet left wave C, and THE bottom wasn't 275$, but is still to come.
I didn't yet work on new guesstimates, but IMO it seems wave C will only end in February 2015 below 200$.

Thanks Oda 

PS So good so far. $1 short of $420 at the moment. Won't turn this into a rampant price posting thread though.

Edit: $420 the second I posted.

After reading through this I have no choice but to buy back in for 15% of what I sold back in Nov-Jan. I'm thinking your algo may be simple as ever, but constructed with some reliable info that you have been collecting for many days,months,years. I kind of have a guess to what the info you have been collecting is and how you have been collecting it. I have a friend that has been collecting market data correlated to hashrate/mining daily updates and he has told me the algorithmic charting program isn't even worth selling.

I believe!

looks like mr silbert heard your signal, oda 

Well, you have even more blood on your hands now as of a few minutes ago. I just bought about 25% of what I sold last November. It is my first real trade actually because I believe in HODL. But I feel this is a good entry point and it will be fun to get into the game right now especially with this cool thread.

I had an order ready to go on Coinbase when the huge $300 wall was being eaten away but my account had dropped below its previous verification level for some reason. So I used that an excuse to say forget it. Of course I still should have bought at that moment!

Now I have a better excuse for watching the forums. But today I will explore.