is this really in USA? that is a rack easily found in China, here at home I have one of that
they are not in recommended position which is horizontal, making the alluminium weaker every day if you intend to sell, think about it arriving damaged.
you got them last week why not run then?
look how many units with one guy - funny how avalon fights descentralization with centralization
Topic: WTS 71 Gh/s Avalon Unit in hand - overnight shipping - page 2. (Read 4053 times)
He will def get over 3 grand..theres also no way he is going to sell it that low either.
this guy wont get over $3000 for any miner thats the fair market rate making 1btc @ $100 for 30 days.
Sorry but this is a buyers market now they dictate the price. The early adopters already sold theirs om ebay the smart ones atleast. The op will have to keep using or sell at a loss most likely taking a few years to make his money back and then throwing it away for pennies with a few years lost and extra stress.
Thats the sad truth.
I already was saying when bfl failed to deliver the first time that ebay will be offering asics at 10th of original retail price. Thats the time to buy not a penny more.
Sorry but this is a buyers market now they dictate the price. The early adopters already sold theirs om ebay the smart ones atleast. The op will have to keep using or sell at a loss most likely taking a few years to make his money back and then throwing it away for pennies with a few years lost and extra stress.
Thats the sad truth.
I already was saying when bfl failed to deliver the first time that ebay will be offering asics at 10th of original retail price. Thats the time to buy not a penny more.
I agree on the GPU stuff above. You are better off just shutting down your GPU miners or switching them to an scrypt based coin (though I am not sure even how profitable those are right now).
250 BTC is quite steep for what you're offering in today's landscape.
I think you will change your mind...(Does a Jedi mind trick with facts)
Title: ASIC's are WAY overpriced!
Title: ASIC's are WAY overpriced!
nice excel formula.
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.
No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.
The "when" is when difficulty is over ~50M, which will happen roughly in September IMO, when they make less than the cost of power consumption.
(Following table is for a card making 650MH@250W, $0.11/KWh, BTC=$100. Showing 20% jumps and estimated dates)
Code:
Date Difficulty $/day after power
06/15/13 15600000 $1.44
06/17/13 18720000 $1.09
07/01/13 22464000 $0.80
07/15/13 26956800 $0.55
07/29/13 32348160 $0.35
08/12/13 38817792 $0.18
08/26/13 46581350 $0.04
06/15/13 15600000 $1.44
06/17/13 18720000 $1.09
07/01/13 22464000 $0.80
07/15/13 26956800 $0.55
07/29/13 32348160 $0.35
08/12/13 38817792 $0.18
08/26/13 46581350 $0.04
*cringes* please don't post things like this... it depresses me, lol.
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.
No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.
The "when" is when difficulty is over ~50M, which will happen roughly in September IMO, when they make less than the cost of power consumption.
(Following table is for a card making 650MH@250W, $0.11/KWh, BTC=$100. Showing 20% jumps and estimated dates)
Code:
Date Difficulty $/day after power
06/15/13 15600000 $1.44
06/17/13 18720000 $1.09
07/01/13 22464000 $0.80
07/15/13 26956800 $0.55
07/29/13 32348160 $0.35
08/12/13 38817792 $0.18
08/26/13 46581350 $0.04
06/15/13 15600000 $1.44
06/17/13 18720000 $1.09
07/01/13 22464000 $0.80
07/15/13 26956800 $0.55
07/29/13 32348160 $0.35
08/12/13 38817792 $0.18
08/26/13 46581350 $0.04
This all also assumes you bought it today. If you bought it late last year, you've made a pretty nice profit already and it's still under warranty, :p.
grue - you are thinking in fiat not BTC which isn't how it works. All I am stating is that if you had 250 BTC today and holding it for a number of years it makes much more sense to spend that on mining equipment.
And what's the logic behind that? In what situation would spending 250 BTC on a 71 GH ASIC be more profitable than holding? So far the only way is for difficulty to be unrealistically low. If you think otherwise, give me numbers (price + difficulty) that would show buying ASIC to be more profitable than holding.Anyway this is a sales thread or was lol until it turned into some kind of name calling / hate thread. Anyway feel free to PM me or email me on any other questions or posts. I don't want to reply to each and every one since its hard to not get trolled and not a productive use of time. I think I did a good job above on stating my thoughts.
>posts item at ridiculous price>fails miserably to justify the price
>"omg u guise are just trolls im not going to argue with u"
YEAH, OK BUDDY.
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.
No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.
At pretty much 1btc=100$
So a 600MH 7950/70 = 0.0192btc per day at 15.6M difficulty.
So at 200M, that'd be 0.0015btc per day. = 15cence a day.
200W per card = 4.8Kwh which at 0.15cence/kwh = $0.72
tldr:
7970 revenue @ 200M = 0.0015btc = 15cence a day.
Power costs a day = 72cence a day
=fucked.
Even at today's difficulty it would take a fresh $350 7970 =182 days at fixed difficulty
This all also assumes you bought it today. If you bought it late last year, you've made a pretty nice profit already and it's still under warranty, :p.
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.
No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.
At pretty much 1btc=100$
So a 600MH 7950/70 = 0.0192btc per day at 15.6M difficulty.
So at 200M, that'd be 0.0015btc per day. = 15cence a day.
200W per card = 4.8Kwh which at 0.15cence/kwh = $0.72
tldr:
7970 revenue @ 200M = 0.0015btc = 15cence a day.
Power costs a day = 72cence a day
=fucked.
Even at today's difficulty it would take a fresh $350 7970 =182 days at fixed difficulty
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.
No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.
No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.
Interested in a unit, but at 250 BTC, that's just madness considering Avalon chips will come onto the market pretty soon and the BKK boards are going to be everywhere.
Recently bought 80GHs worth of Avalon chips and boards at approximately 2/5's the cost of this unit
Recently bought 80GHs worth of Avalon chips and boards at approximately 2/5's the cost of this unit
http://speedy.sh/R2gXU/ASICs-are-way-overpriced-v1.xlsx
Alright, there is version 1. I had added an easy way to change the initial BTC amount as well as the frequency of profit loss and setting the percentage.
I post it without warranty. Any psychological harm due to this reality check should be billed to your local psychiatrist and not to me. If you find any strange errors feel free to let me know. (Also feel free to upload it to Google Docs as I don't know the in's or outs of that particular service.)
Alright, there is version 1. I had added an easy way to change the initial BTC amount as well as the frequency of profit loss and setting the percentage.
I post it without warranty. Any psychological harm due to this reality check should be billed to your local psychiatrist and not to me. If you find any strange errors feel free to let me know. (Also feel free to upload it to Google Docs as I don't know the in's or outs of that particular service.)
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
You know what is really scary? I had no idea this would be the result. I strongly suspected ASICs were way overpriced, but I hadn't (at that time) done the actual math.Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
When I did, wow, was I disappointed....(an understatement)
I was just changing the code slightly right now to make it easy to use for a newbie (so they can stand up to the ASIC manufacturers and plug in their own numbers then tell them to lower their prices).
I just plugged in 24% in the first week and left the other blocks at 15%. What is extremely scary is that the final BTC produced at 1 year plunged from 104 BTC to 93 BTC simply by changing that first week.
People are apt to think the spreadsheet is somehow exaggerating the situation, right? But the spreadsheet is pretty damning. We only have to wait 7 days and look at the numbers. My worst fear is that the week after this, the next difficulty jump will be worse than 24%.
If that is so, the amount of BTC generated takes a nose dive at the end of the line (day 365). The profits wiped out are staggering.
Fook 70Gh/s. You'll need a TerraHash just to keep up with the network difficulty and eroding profits.
I'm pretty surprised by the numbers myself. I thought even at, say 20% per couple weeks, it wouldn't hurt much. These charts show that even a small change can make a world of a difference.
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
You know what is really scary? I had no idea this would be the result. I strongly suspected ASICs were way overpriced, but I hadn't (at that time) done the actual math.Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
When I did, wow, was I disappointed....(an understatement)
I was just changing the code slightly right now to make it easy to use for a newbie (so they can stand up to the ASIC manufacturers and plug in their own numbers then tell them to lower their prices).
I just plugged in 24% in the first week and left the other blocks at 15%. What is extremely scary is that the final BTC produced at 1 year plunged from 104 BTC to 93 BTC simply by changing that first week.
People are apt to think the spreadsheet is somehow exaggerating the situation, right? But the spreadsheet is pretty damning. We only have to wait 7 days and look at the numbers. My worst fear is that the week after this, the next difficulty jump will be worse than 24%.
If that is so, the amount of BTC generated takes a nose dive at the end of the line (day 365). The profits wiped out are staggering.
Fook 70Gh/s. You'll need a TerraHash just to keep up with the network difficulty and eroding profits.
grue - you are thinking in fiat not BTC which isn't how it works. All I am stating is that if you had 250 BTC today and holding it for a number of years it makes much more sense to spend that on mining equipment.
Anyway this is a sales thread or was lol until it turned into some kind of name calling / hate thread. Anyway feel free to PM me or email me on any other questions or posts. I don't want to reply to each and every one since its hard to not get trolled and not a productive use of time. I think I did a good job above on stating my thoughts.
Anyway this is a sales thread or was lol until it turned into some kind of name calling / hate thread. Anyway feel free to PM me or email me on any other questions or posts. I don't want to reply to each and every one since its hard to not get trolled and not a productive use of time. I think I did a good job above on stating my thoughts.
I agree. This is all a matter of opinion. When it all comes down to it, it's a simple solution of "if you don't want to buy it, don't buy it." I think at this point it's worth saying that different people are taking this different ways, and leave it at that.
With that said, good luck with the sale!
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
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