It is fascinating that this thread is to nearly 2000 pages and yet is not considered the go-to place for monero news/updates. So, I guess this is all grain-of-salt territory. But I digress...
The point of this post isn't for FUD although it may seem as such. I've been into XMR since 2014 but don't currently HODL any real position. I would but am more of a new coin enthusiast and just fascinated with all the opportunity exploding in the cryptocurrency world.
I think it is important to acknowledge the good work of Monero devs to continue ASIC resistance. This is really a good thing. However... yes, here it comes... I can't help but also acknowledge the ongoing risks with such a reality. This new frontier of ever-changing algorithms will be interesting. Very interesting to say the very least. Let's consider:
1. The algo change has been pushed back to June. Meanwhile, ASIC miners equating to 200 conventional miners have hit the streets costing 1/200 the cost of a conventional miner and consuming even less energy.
2. It will be interesting to watch the price movement in the next few months as we await the algo change. Will people wisely HODL their ASIC mined Monero or will they dump to ROI? Maybe both.
3. And this is where I'll stop my brainstorm... Security. We are already pushed back several months for development concerns of changing the XMR algorithm. Now, will this happen again in the future? Will we have to endure further security risks inherent with more algorithm changes? Will the new algorithm be better? Will it be worse? Why?
Hmmm... that last piece is the one that really has me concerned. And to assign blame, yes... I would look at ASIC producers. However, it developers also have to be prepared for this reality.
The point of this post isn't for FUD although it may seem as such. I've been into XMR since 2014 but don't currently HODL any real position. I would but am more of a new coin enthusiast and just fascinated with all the opportunity exploding in the cryptocurrency world.
I think it is important to acknowledge the good work of Monero devs to continue ASIC resistance. This is really a good thing. However... yes, here it comes... I can't help but also acknowledge the ongoing risks with such a reality. This new frontier of ever-changing algorithms will be interesting. Very interesting to say the very least. Let's consider:
1. The algo change has been pushed back to June. Meanwhile, ASIC miners equating to 200 conventional miners have hit the streets costing 1/200 the cost of a conventional miner and consuming even less energy.
2. It will be interesting to watch the price movement in the next few months as we await the algo change. Will people wisely HODL their ASIC mined Monero or will they dump to ROI? Maybe both.
3. And this is where I'll stop my brainstorm... Security. We are already pushed back several months for development concerns of changing the XMR algorithm. Now, will this happen again in the future? Will we have to endure further security risks inherent with more algorithm changes? Will the new algorithm be better? Will it be worse? Why?
Hmmm... that last piece is the one that really has me concerned. And to assign blame, yes... I would look at ASIC producers. However, it developers also have to be prepared for this reality.
If the PoW change will be successful without a hitch (and I have confidence in the devs to make it so), it will then become a deterrence (more than anything else) as such implementation could then be repeated as necessary or established as a routine. In fact, I personally think that subsequent/further PoW changes will not be necessary as far as future ASIC threat is concerned. I don't think the usual suspects would gamble when the genie will have been out of the bottle.
Edit: I think PoW change will become a paradigm in the crypto space after Monero's (successful) fork.
I think you're right about this part of the scenario. I highly doubt ASIC producers would further risk production costs for one-off algo changes.
This is an interesting turn of events. In a way, it is good that the ASIC producers have done this because it forces originality in the coin algorithm. But I'm sure downsides such as development risks come along with that. But as far as price action goes... It may just be the next few months that really suck for XMR HODL'ers... of course true HODL'ers don't care about such things lol.
It's really an interesting situation. I mean, a lot can still happen. But, I'm in the camp that sees this as a temporary setback for XMR. But a lot can happen in 30-60 days.
I wonder how significant is the threat of FPGAs though since they are programmable.
There are always risks involved in any endeavor, most especially in the realm as complex as cryptocurrency development. But no risk, no reward/innovation.
Prices come and go. It's market-driven and still very speculative at this point in time. If the HF affects it at all, it'll be temporary as always. In fact, if the HF will be successful, it'll only excite the speculators. But such is for another thread.
