XMR Monero price poll - what is XMR/BTC rate by Dec-31-2016 ??

Febo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1288

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 07, 2016, 04:52:28 AM

After the recent events about the exit scam news I speculate that Monero will go back to 400k to 600k satoshis. The pumpers and the traders have already made their money when they took advantage of the volatility. Now it is on its way down and that might also be played by the same people to make money again by short selling.

You still cant read?

One dark market closed doors. It was small one. Apparently that happens quite often on dark markets. Far most trades there was made in BTC and those BTC was stolen. Where do you expect BTC will drop because of this exit scam?

bbc.reporter

legendary

Activity: 2926

Merit: 1440

After the recent events about the exit scam news I speculate that Monero will go back to 400k to 600k satoshis. The pumpers and the traders have already made their money when they took advantage of the volatility. Now it is on its way down and that might also be played by the same people to make money again by short selling.

OrangeP

sr. member

Activity: 358

Merit: 250

Quote from: kurious on October 07, 2016, 04:21:19 AM

Quote from: rpietila on October 05, 2016, 08:36:26 AM

Quote from: MoneroMooo on August 30, 2016, 07:07:00 AM

Quote from: kurious on August 30, 2016, 05:58:10 AM

Sure, laugh at me if we're out in the Ort belt with $25 + per Monero in December by all means.

Is that... past the Kuiper belt, and on its way to the Oort cloud ?

At least the quantum foam is decisively past us with 10k BTC and more daily volumes.

I agree we are seemingly 'out of the woods' in terms of a crash to sub 0.007-level disaster - and there is certainly proven support at 0.01, as I had expected.

The road up is not as easy as a simple snap back to over 0.02 though, IMO.

Financial market uncertainties make the 'stable-looking' BTC look increasingly attractive as a hedge on currency fluctuation - I speak as a Brit who has seen his currency flash crash overnight to terrifyingly levels, way below where it was pre-Brexit and is grateful that his BTC is denominated in USD. Every cent down adds a very nice amount to my (crypto) wealth. So for me, being in BTC, or a currency denominated in BTC is a boon.

I am sure I am not alone. Which is why he road ahead is positive for crypto, but rocky. BTC will quite possibly spike up - I would not be surprised to see a decent run prior to Christmas - not to ATH, but over 800 looks possible. I think we will much more than simply keep our value in USD terms, but massive increases against BTC to our ATH or more (in BTC terms) will be very unlikely if this happens.

Even if it does not - I doubt any new ATH type run will come before Spring.

Short term profit hunters are saving liquidity for ZCASH, ICONOMI and recently ETH.
I tend to agree with your analysis.
Buying XMR at <$7 probably was a bargain though.

kurious

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 1643

Quote from: rpietila on October 05, 2016, 08:36:26 AM

Quote from: MoneroMooo on August 30, 2016, 07:07:00 AM

Quote from: kurious on August 30, 2016, 05:58:10 AM

Sure, laugh at me if we're out in the Ort belt with $25 + per Monero in December by all means.

Is that... past the Kuiper belt, and on its way to the Oort cloud ?

At least the quantum foam is decisively past us with 10k BTC and more daily volumes.

I agree we are seemingly 'out of the woods' in terms of a crash to sub 0.007-level disaster - and there is certainly proven support at 0.01, as I had expected.

The road up is not as easy as a simple snap back to over 0.02 though, IMO.

Financial market uncertainties make the 'stable-looking' BTC look increasingly attractive as a hedge on currency fluctuation - I speak as a Brit who has seen his currency flash crash overnight to terrifyingly levels, way below where it was pre-Brexit and is grateful that his BTC is denominated in USD. Every cent down adds a very nice amount to my (crypto) wealth. So for me, being in BTC, or a currency denominated in BTC is a boon.

I am sure I am not alone. Which is why he road ahead is positive for crypto, but rocky. BTC will quite possibly spike up - I would not be surprised to see a decent run prior to Christmas - not to ATH, but over 800 looks possible. I think we will much more than simply keep our value in USD terms, but massive increases against BTC to our ATH or more (in BTC terms) will be very unlikely if this happens.

Even if it does not - I doubt any new ATH type run will come before Spring.

Febo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1288

Quote from: Dafar on October 05, 2016, 09:46:51 AM

Quote from: novag on October 05, 2016, 08:41:58 AM

70-90$ in december.

More like $5-$10 in december

There is still lots of time till December.
Less then a month passed from when this pool was created nd i am sure peoples expectations changed dramatically.

3 months are quite some time left.

Dafar

legendary

Activity: 1330

Merit: 1000

dafar consulting

Quote from: novag on October 05, 2016, 08:41:58 AM

70-90$ in december.

More like $5-$10 in december

c4s7or

hero member

Activity: 535

Merit: 500

Quote from: novag on October 05, 2016, 08:41:58 AM

70-90$ in december.

What? Why do you think this could actually happens?

novag

hero member

Activity: 687

Merit: 500

novag

70-90$ in december.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: MoneroMooo on August 30, 2016, 07:07:00 AM

Quote from: kurious on August 30, 2016, 05:58:10 AM

Sure, laugh at me if we're out in the Ort belt with $25 + per Monero in December by all means.

Is that... past the Kuiper belt, and on its way to the Oort cloud ?

At least the quantum foam is decisively past us with 10k BTC and more daily volumes.

kurious

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 1643

Quote from: MoneroMooo on August 30, 2016, 07:07:00 AM

Quote from: kurious on August 30, 2016, 05:58:10 AM

Sure, laugh at me if we're out in the Ort belt with $25 + per Monero in December by all means.

Is that... past the Kuiper belt, and on its way to the Oort cloud ?

I just checked in to this thread to see how it was playing out - and I stand corrected... A belated 'thank you' is due to you. Oort cloud, I hope - but most of my early pessimism is thus far playing out. So far we have dipped way lower than 90% of people voted for initially.

Having predicted 0.0075, I of course hoped it would not happen and was also terrified of going to far below my target stash in XMR. So I sold too little near the top. If I had been bolder and followed my own advice, I would be a richer and happier man.

Such is life...

I now think much below 0.01 will see huge support, and if we go below it will not be for long. Possibly below 0.009 briefly - but the fundamentals are too good to not snap back up sharply. There has been no final capitulation yet. The slide is a smooth down slope. My instinct says one last hard spike down will sort it and the bottom will have been found.

BTC moves are the variable that means I will simply wait and see. That which I have not sold so far I am keeping and hodling. My low ball buys are in awaiting any moves that may surprise us. GUI will hopefully help, but any significant (to 0.02 or more) rise may have to wait until at least February now.

That is my best guess. Based on bananas.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

There is the General Aminorex Law which states that the dump is on its way when Aminorex mentions term "bullish" attached to a certain coin and when he recommends to buy coffee beans, short oil, long cauliflower and wheat futures, there is a time to buy Monero actually.

However, this law can be applied on speculator games only. It doesn't necessarily work in current Monero environment that much anymore since there is also other things to do with Monero than tossing dies and throwing coins to bids on Polo.

Gahs

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Minter

Quote from: Dafar on August 30, 2016, 11:04:47 AM

When a coin pumps 500%+ it only needs one excuse to come tumbling down

Or like ethereum did, it could keep climbing and climbing higher. You never know... Undecided

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Remembering Bitcoin in 2010, we can rise higher without meaningful pullbacks also. My personal belief is not that this is impossible, but that it is not the most probable scenario. To elaborate, I see the rest of the year as a die game where you pay a coin and receive something like:

4 coins on a "6"
2 coins on a "5"
0.5 coins on a "4"
0.5 coins on a "3"
0.5 coins on a "2"
0.5 coins on a "1"

It is possible to be same time +EV (positive expected value) and higher probability to lose than to win Wink

nanobrain

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Dumb broad

Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 01, 2016, 01:52:29 AM

@rpietila. A sample of 100 votes from bitcointalk will not be a good measure of what might statistically happen. There is the argument that the sample is tainted knowing that this is bitcointalk.

It is a fun exercise but not to be taken seriously especially by the naive people who lurk here.

A sample of 100 is of course relatively small but it depends on what you are looking for and what you do with the data.

Given the nature of the forum and simplicity of the poll, its difficult to create any controls or breakdowns of the data but I disagree that the results are tainted by the fact this is BTCtalk - the results are going to be more informed than if you had run the questionnaire on a gardening forum or in a supermarket.

Knowing Risto he has knowledge of or access to statistical tools and wouldn't simply draw conclusions from the raw data but run analysis such as GLMs or PCAs if he really wanted to utilise the findings.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 01, 2016, 01:52:29 AM

@rpietila. A sample of 100 votes from bitcointalk will not be a good measure of what might statistically happen. There is the argument that the sample is tainted knowing that this is bitcointalk.

It is a fun exercise but not to be taken seriously especially by the naive people who lurk here.

I don't know about the others, but I have repeatedly said it is a contrarian indicator. People sincerely believe what they vote on, but they have already acted according to their belief, ie. if someone is bullish, it does not mean he will buy, but he has already bought. Also being bearish does not mean in the process of selling, but waiting to buy lower.

Therefore, the potential for continued price appreciation exists when most are bearish and vote for low prices. When people vote for high prices, they are wishing for them but already bought.

bbc.reporter

legendary

Activity: 2926

Merit: 1440

@rpietila. A sample of 100 votes from bitcointalk will not be a good measure of what might statistically happen. There is the argument that the sample is tainted knowing that this is bitcointalk.

It is a fun exercise but not to be taken seriously especially by the naive people who lurk here.

bbc.reporter

legendary

Activity: 2926

Merit: 1440

My best guess would be around .006 - .008. It will be stable there for a long time after the hype. No solid reasoning behind the guess except maybe from what I saw happen from other cryptocoins that have gone up a lot in price. They always go down and become stable at slightly lower prices but at a higher price before the pump.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Only 9 more votes to go and we can analyse the situation after 100 votes!

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1029

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: Febo on August 30, 2016, 11:39:00 AM

There is positive attitude in crypto last 2 months in all coins , even the one that dont bring anything new, gained a lot. This positive attitude happened after BTC did not ATH after halving and ETH fiasko.
Monero gained 420% in last 2 weeks and 700% in last 2 months
Monero would be worth $10 sooner or latter without nay news about dark markets. I personally dont expect that there will be any disappointment , but expect it will be widely used there.
But still the price of Monero will still swing up and down a lot in upcoming weeks.

I like your even tone, and consider your views quite temperate and sensible. Respect.

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on August 30, 2016, 12:06:08 PM

You do not need any news to support Monero in the days of dark net markets. All you need is junkies buying their stuff with XMR + vendors holding at least a part of their Moneros without any news of volumes. News are for the speculators - I am glad Monero is taking some steps away from specualtion stage into the stage of real world adaption.
Sure some nervous speculators with tight margin longs might be dumping on Sept 1st but I encourage to look a little more ahead than just stare at one date. The minimum block reward is only a few steps ahead of us, sure some adaption for sure will take place from DNM, then also normal people will adapt Monero as their personal currency.

I like your long-term emphasis, and consider your views quite temperate and sensible. Respect. Which surprises me, frankly. So happy that your troll days are gone!

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Dafar on August 30, 2016, 11:04:47 AM

Quote from: obit33 on August 30, 2016, 11:00:55 AM

Quote from: Dafar on August 30, 2016, 10:59:31 AM

Any speculation for Sept 1?

It seems like the price is being suppressed around 015 - 016, from going either up or down. Until Sept 1 everyone is riding the hype train so there is probably a lot of resistance on pushing the price down. Some whales might also think it can easily surpass 02 and beyond so they may be pressuring the price from rising further at the moment.

Come Sept 1... if we dont see much XMR volume in Alpha/Oasis then I'm guessing we are likely to see an epic dump.

how will you check xmr-volume in alpha/oasis?

best regards

I have no idea lol, I thought the sites could determine the # of transactions happening in XMR? If they announce anything remotely disappointing about XMR not meeting the # of transactions or utility as assumed then I can certainly see the start of a dip. When a coin pumps 500%+ it only needs one excuse to come tumbling down

You do not need any news to support Monero in the days of dark net markets. All you need is junkies buying their stuff with XMR + vendors holding at least a part of their Moneros without any news of volumes. News are for the speculators - I am glad Monero is taking some steps away from specualtion stage into the stage of real world adaption.
Sure some nervous speculators with tight margin longs might be dumping on Sept 1st but I encourage to look a little more ahead than just stare at one date. The minimum block reward is only a few steps ahead of us, sure some adaption for sure will take place from DNM, then also normal people will adapt Monero as their personal currency.

Topic: XMR Monero price poll - what is XMR/BTC rate by Dec-31-2016 ?? (Read 4887 times)