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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1040. (Read 3314350 times)

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
October 01, 2016, 08:29:19 PM
Furthermore I dont suspect that the userbase of XMR is that large at this point in time. Maybe just 0,0001 % of the total userbase of Bitcoin.

That would be something in the neighborhood of one person. I'm pretty sure it is larger than that.

Next assertion; Most early adopters have a huge stash. 
What is a huge stash?  Maybe 100k or more?  If there are 100 early adopters then that accounts all the coins.

Go easy on our friend Mast0rmind. Not everyone in cryptocurrency approaches it from a perspective of math or cryptography.

hero member
Activity: 768
Merit: 505
October 01, 2016, 07:30:33 PM

Well maybe you are right.

I understand that when looking at the large amounts being thrown around on Polo that somebody has large stashes.  Your specifics just made no sense to me.  It is a relatively small market and people with money can do things that I can't fathom being a poor boy and others have much better insight into how markets work than I do. Even btc is not that big a market for some people.   



Also dont forgot one of those bigger holders only needs to have a bigger % of the possible coins on the exchange not all coins ever mined... the "cold coins" are not that big of a part in the equotation on exchanges.
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
October 01, 2016, 07:22:25 PM

Well maybe you are right.

I understand that when looking at the large amounts being thrown around on Polo that somebody has large stashes.  Your specifics just made no sense to me.  It is a relatively small market and people with money can do things that I can't fathom being a poor boy and others have much better insight into how markets work than I do. Even btc is not that big a market for some people.   

full member
Activity: 204
Merit: 101
October 01, 2016, 06:37:58 PM

I'm also a bit conserned about the emission curve of monero, which seems a bit intense to me. I mean most monerojs are in the hands of a few, and they themself can manipulate the market as they please.

Monero since the beginning has had a relatively large trade volume which doesn't seem to indicate that most monerojs are in the hands of a few.


Well again, most early adopters have a huge stach of XMR theres no question about that in my opinion due to low price (before the rise) and a high emission curve.

Furthermore I dont suspect that the userbase of XMR is that large at this point in time. Maybe just 0,0001 % of the total userbase of Bitcoin.

Ofc the userbase is not that large compared to btc, nobody ever claimed it to be but at least you could make a realistic wild guess.
Maybe 0.0001%?  Then according to this, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1628738.0;viewResults
there are less than 2 million btc users.  Multiply that by 0.0001% = <20 Monero users. 


Next assertion; Most early adopters have a huge stash. 
What is a huge stash?  Maybe 100k or more?  If there are 100 early adopters then that accounts all the coins.  Now you say that because of the low price the early adopters could buy cheap.  But the coins were cheap for 2 years.  When I started buying over 2 years ago the price was stable at around 0.004 and 1 1/2 years later it was 0.001
So for 2 years people could become early adopters due to the fact of the emissions schedule.  Much different than you stating the emissions curve only allowed a few to get huge amounts.

I have more coins than ever and nowhere near a huge amount.  Some of us are poor. 



Well maybe you are right.
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
October 01, 2016, 06:13:10 PM

I'm also a bit conserned about the emission curve of monero, which seems a bit intense to me. I mean most monerojs are in the hands of a few, and they themself can manipulate the market as they please.

Monero since the beginning has had a relatively large trade volume which doesn't seem to indicate that most monerojs are in the hands of a few.


Well again, most early adopters have a huge stach of XMR theres no question about that in my opinion due to low price (before the rise) and a high emission curve.

Furthermore I dont suspect that the userbase of XMR is that large at this point in time. Maybe just 0,0001 % of the total userbase of Bitcoin.

Ofc the userbase is not that large compared to btc, nobody ever claimed it to be but at least you could make a realistic wild guess.
Maybe 0.0001%?  Then according to this, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1628738.0;viewResults
there are less than 2 million btc users.  Multiply that by 0.0001% = <20 Monero users. 


Next assertion; Most early adopters have a huge stash. 
What is a huge stash?  Maybe 100k or more?  If there are 100 early adopters then that accounts all the coins.  Now you say that because of the low price the early adopters could buy cheap.  But the coins were cheap for 2 years.  When I started buying over 2 years ago the price was stable at around 0.004 and 1 1/2 years later it was 0.001
So for 2 years people could become early adopters due to the fact of the emissions schedule.  Much different than you stating the emissions curve only allowed a few to get huge amounts.

I have more coins than ever and nowhere near a huge amount.  Some of us are poor. 



legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
October 01, 2016, 06:07:14 PM
Beware the Bull trap right now. Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1164
October 01, 2016, 05:54:42 PM
You only want him to baghold that your losses are not getting higher. Fibonacci indicates it goes down to 085 check at bitcoinwisdom.

You can't apply Fibonacci on XMR markets. It isn't close to being a mature enough market. It's barely even practical on BTC/USD let alone XMR/BTC.

Besides, if you think it's going to 085 then why are you telling the noob to buy at 075.

You're clearly looking to accumulate, but had you been paying attention you would have realised that we're already currently in the accumulation zone.

Anything below 0.012 is the pickup point, and while newcomers should always trade cautiously, it would be fucking insanity to sell now....given that pretty much everyone else in this thread is obviously picking up.

So please, less of the evangelical deception.

Of course you can apply Fibonacci levels to XMR. Consider the latest surge in price to have begun on Aug 2 price has retreated almost exactly 61.8%. Traders are fiercely supporting the 0.0120 level dips below have been brief. I also agree that any price below .012 is worth bidding.

sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
October 01, 2016, 05:27:08 PM
puh about the customer base i'm not so sure. When i check the datas with the API there are a lot different buy and sell orders. When these are not all bots from the same person, i would say there are a lot of people in it. But i cannot compare with BTC.

When fluffy says he has about 12k~ coins -and i believe him- than i dont think that there is someone outside who has about 20% or so...and if so: yai buddy!
full member
Activity: 204
Merit: 101
October 01, 2016, 05:20:33 PM

I'm also a bit conserned about the emission curve of monero, which seems a bit intense to me. I mean most monerojs are in the hands of a few, and they themself can manipulate the market as they please.

Monero since the beginning has had a relatively large trade volume which doesn't seem to indicate that most monerojs are in the hands of a few.


Well again, most early adopters have a huge stach of XMR theres no question about that in my opinion due to low price (before the rise) and a high emission curve.

Furthermore I dont suspect that the userbase of XMR is that large at this point in time. Maybe just 0,0001 % of the total userbase of Bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
October 01, 2016, 05:17:41 PM

I'm also a bit conserned about the emission curve of monero, which seems a bit intense to me. I mean most monerojs are in the hands of a few, and they themself can manipulate the market as they please.

Monero since the beginning has had a relatively large trade volume which doesn't seem to indicate that most monerojs are in the hands of a few.

Wait, lets look at the "rich list"

http://moneroblocks.info/richlist
full member
Activity: 204
Merit: 101
October 01, 2016, 05:11:57 PM
The last support is at 113 to 110. When this breaks I can imagine an (more) incredible crash. I mean there is just no more buy power than  Shocked (except the ones who are watching and didnt place an order, but why should they join a sinking ship)
IMO the price will drop a bit further as bitcoin rises, I think BTC is about to rally and cause a lot of Alts to drop in value. I think XMR will rise to higher than now during the next bear market in BTC. I'm holding, mining and have some lowish buy orders and some more speculative buy orders (I'm also doing the same with quite a few other alts), I'll soak up some of the low prices whilst everybody else is running for BTC.

I'm also a bit conserned about the emission curve of monero, which seems a bit intense to me. I mean most monerojs are in the hands of a few, and they themself can manipulate the market as they please.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
October 01, 2016, 05:10:02 PM
@smoothie
Low volume in selling? What is low volume for you please?

ps. why everyone starts to fight about changing oppionions. In this market its totally common that things are changing and so the POV.

If Amazon tomorrow announces to implement XMR i change again to buy btw. Wink

But still i wonder what happens if the last support above 100 breaks

pps. i still claim that XMR has a good future due to ransomware demands. But as i said this effect takes more than 6 month.

@starmman

Im curious if the BTC run is related to the US election or to the news about deutsche bank and some concerns about a new FC..you know more?
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1029
October 01, 2016, 05:07:40 PM
The last support is at 113 to 110. When this breaks I can imagine an (more) incredible crash. I mean there is just no more buy power than  Shocked (except the ones who are watching and didnt place an order, but why should they join a sinking ship)
IMO the price will drop a bit further as bitcoin rises, I think BTC is about to rally and cause a lot of Alts to drop in value. I think XMR will rise to higher than now during the next bear market in BTC. I'm holding, mining and have some lowish buy orders and some more speculative buy orders (I'm also doing the same with quite a few other alts), I'll soak up some of the low prices whilst everybody else is running for BTC.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
October 01, 2016, 05:03:32 PM
The last support is at 113 to 110. When this breaks I can imagine an (more) incredible crash. I mean there is just no more buy power than  Shocked (except the ones who are watching and didnt place an order, but why should they join a sinking ship)

What you may have missed is the unusually low volume of selling on the way down since the top.

When comparing to the volume of the price rise.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
October 01, 2016, 05:02:23 PM
i told you...XMR crash continues....

you've also said many other things contrary.

It appears you are up and down by the hour/day on this thread.
full member
Activity: 204
Merit: 101
October 01, 2016, 05:01:58 PM
I would like to support XMR with my buying power, but it seems to me (!) that the market is concerned with the upcoming rise in BTC (almost perfect H C pattern), so it is only rational to support BTC and discard alts for the moment.
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
October 01, 2016, 04:55:47 PM
I'm away for 24 hrs and look at all the posts I have to wade through, wade not necessarily read. Cool

I declare that I have sold all my Moneroj and will never buy any again!  (Did that work guys?)  Wink


In other news: "To make a difference, is not a matter of casual occurrence of the tides.  People choose to make a difference."


Many thanks to the devs and those in the community that have contributed in their own way.


Edit: speling an gramer
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
October 01, 2016, 04:53:11 PM
The last support is at 113 to 110. When this breaks I can imagine an (more) incredible crash. I mean there is just no more buy power than  Shocked (except the ones who are watching and didnt place an order, but why should they join a sinking ship)
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
October 01, 2016, 04:00:54 PM
A while back you told us we should be buying XMR for higher than now and today the noobs are supposed to sell lower than they initially bought in hope of reaching 0.0075...?
Don't worry i am not listening to him. The reality is that you don't know how much xmr will fall before the recovery but i am certain even the 0.026 bagholders will end up making a profit if they don't sell at loss. Buying more if the price falls is of course very dangerous and nothing i would recommend in general, but i have faith in XMR and refuse to play this stupid game on poloniex https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory (the greater fool is the one selling it even cheaper in the future this time).

Also i am not buying now, i am waiting since predicting prices is very hard, looking at graphs and market deps only confuses you, just buy when the price is low.

Low is a relative term directly tied to a arbitrary point. How do you decide that point?

full member
Activity: 125
Merit: 100
Chief Technology Officer, NYC
October 01, 2016, 03:57:57 PM
This will be the last time i invest in cryptos, even if i would end up making a profit. I am not suitable to trade, i will not buy over 0.01 from now.

Why? Just sell now everything and buy back at 0.0075 or so. Than you have more coins which you can sell in one year when the coin maybe recovers. But dont make your loss bigger.

You should be ashamed for scamming newbies as you are doing. You know full well that it will never drop that low. Propagandising it to newbies with the invitation to trade accordingly is seriously cuntish.

Always protect the noob no matter what the circumstances.

Why would you say it will never drop that low?  We've gone from 0.0265 to 0.0115 a drop of 0.015 in essentially slightly less than a month, traditionally XMR bear markets have lasted quite long between these quick rises.  From 0.0115 to 0.0075 is only 0.004, only around a quarter of last months drop since the ATH.

It looks to me like you might be trying to influence noobs to protect your bags which are getting increasingly heavier on a daily basis.  Instead of trying to fleece people of their money try learning how to use the stop-loss features of the exchange.

I'm not doing that in the slightest. I'm not even declaring a position, other than that it is clearly irresponsible to be motioning to those who have declared a hapzard trading history to suddenly "sell now and buy at 0.0075." That's patently not good advice.

Sure, you could conjure-up theoretical scenarios based upon XMR declining further, at which point you could phrase it in terms of probability and altering your portfolio in a way that would be beneficial in case of multiple outcomes.

That's not what he said though. He is instead exclaiming a unilateral unwavering protestation, that is frankly opportunistic at best, just fucking crazy at worst. Do I sound equally as unobjective and irrational?

The recent September rises were the ultimate conclusion to a prolonged period whereby the price was considered to be grossly undervalued. Everything that has happened, happened as an upward correction that only required the DNM market adoption as its point of ignition; the straw that broke the camel's back.

People are looking for a correction, that's true. But, the personality of the market has now changed considerably, and will never return to the "traditional space" that you are looking for.

BTC is on the rise, and contrary to causing an XMR decline, the absence of a healthy direct XMR/USD market will mean that XMR will rise in tandem, but with greater orders of magnitude than BTC's own ascent against USD. Exactly, what happened with Litecoin following the 2013 ascent, albeit this time with even less latency.

Once you throw in XMR fundamentals such as RingCT, the GUI, and increased conversations about anonymity following ZCash's release, it kinda becomes obvious that everyone is trying to get back in at some point.

Any labor involved in advocating selling and buying lower is therefore not good advice, but is in contrast an irresponsible and opportunistic attempt at market manipulation, at the expense of someone who is a self-declared terrible trader.

You can try to defend that wpalczynski, but it does nothing to endear you or your credibility.
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