Coincheck will start trading Monero:
https://coincheck.com/blog/2303
https://twitter.com/coincheckjp/status/779151756483670016
Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1061. (Read 3314343 times)
I propose we begin a community-funded ad campaign to encourage people to purchase illicit drugs online.
Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?
If I am honest, not many here are interested into Zcash so I do not see it even competing with XMR. Bear in mind, in order to succeed a coin needs network effect which is created by the community willing to buy and hodl - tech is not sufficient enough (we saw this from btc's first generation shitcoin alternatives).
So far Monero has a community that is willing to buy and hodl, and if the community keeps buying and holding, more people will join into the party and that will accelerate the network effect and price surge to the MoonTM.
If success = price being really high then sure your model works.
Personally it may be fairer to say that price play a part of success. To me it shouldn't play a large part of the "success" definition.
Success doesn't only mean people willing to buy and hold a crypto. Usage/utility and transactional/speculative volume needs to be a factor.
If people are just buying and holding then it is essentially an example of the greater fool theory. Granted that is such a broad spectrum of things that is described as markets go up and down, but I personally would like it if people bought XMR if they need to, not want to just because of hoping the price goes higher.
Then again speculators gonna spec...cu....late.
Success may also involve a threshold of users/nodes that a crypto surpasses. Hitting critical mass is on the road to success, but is it success? I don't think so.
If it holds its adoption over long periods of time then yes it would be successful. But this is 2.5 years into the coin's life, kind of early to call monero successful...yet.
Price doesn't imply success but success implies high price (the deduction goes only one way here).
I agree with you that volume also is a factor. However, you can have large volume in dumps (like ETH had in DAO incident).
To buy and hold a currency is not an example of greater fool theory but I agree it could be. For instance, people hold gold bullion because they know the supply is limited (which is not true - an asteoroid full of gold can hit to my garden etc).
Therefore, gold serves as a store of value, and it is not considered as an example of greater fool is it.
Monero indeed is not yet successful despite my investment is still up 1000 %. I call it a success when people are making lines to my backdoor and sleeping in tents so that they can buy some fractions of Monero from me.
Still Monero community (as well as the crypto in general) is kind of niche market Monero being a niche inside of the niche and thus far away from being mainstream.
Personally I view a successful Monero having ever increasing price trend - by buying any point of time some Moneros and holding it xyz period a buyer should have increased their purchasing power. At least a little bit.
Maybe you are a clam.
I'm assuming you are not referring to the shellfish....could you explain the meaning and usage of the term 'clam'?
I was being purposely obtuse and used a simple/silly 2 step association. clam>shellfish>selfish
When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic and was looking forward to personal gain steaming from chaos and pain. Big assumptions to be sure and based in part on his prior posts. Maybe some see chaos and pain as inevitable but I would rather see crypto adoption and personal gain without it.
Don't rely on bad, do good.
Thanks for the explanation. I'm not sure I can cope if we start using once removed word associations to parlez; lots of forum folk already struggle with basic semantics.
But I do appreciate your sentiments ie it would be lovely if we could have a more equitable world without pain,misery and chaos as a catalyst and that crypto could act as the means to redistribute wealth more evenly.
Sadly, where the monkeys tread pain, misery and chaos inevitably follow.
@Quicken,
Nice, thanks.
The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.
Nice, thanks.
The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.
Ever the party pooper
Someone needs a new truck
LOL I've been waiting for weeks already. Enough! To the Moon, and beyond!
Nice spike to 0.018. Next point better not be .0166, Nanobrain!
We know you're a perma-bull but are you just making shit up now? 
Next you're gonna say all these "professionals" / hedge fund managers prefer to invest in monero over bitcoin
Next you're gonna say all these "professionals" / hedge fund managers prefer to invest in monero over bitcoin
No. And others who read this know some of them. Some are well-known persons. I don't think the majority of finance professionals with an interest in crypto prefer Monero over Bitcoin, but I do know that some of them do. I don't know of any for whom Monero is currently a significant holding. I.e. almost all of the upside in that market remains untested. I do know that some of those who took small personal positions on my suggestion, and made large m-t-m gains, are increasing their positions, gradually. If XMR persistently surpasses LTC, I may pitch it on a more formal basis to acquaintances in cases where I was previously reluctant to raise the topic, because of the small market cap. Once it surpasses ETH, I doubt my intervention will be meaningful anymore, as anyone with any investment interest in crypto should know about it by then.
It is fair to call me a "permabull" in the sense that even when I have bearish short term views, I have persistent bullish longer term views. In fact any short term views I may have, are very loosely held, because I don't generally have better information than the market, so I should in the main defer to the market on short-term discounting. I think I have a better ability to grasp the bigger picture than the market has demonstrated, so I have stronger long-term bullish views. So far experience has borne out my estimates regarding the longer term arc of Monero developments, but that is no guarantee of future performance. I am perfectly capable of imagining extreme scenarios of upside which are highly unlikely to occur. Yet I consider their possibility to be non-negligible, in general.
I don't think I have ever recommended anyone to buy Monero at a time when it would have taken them more than a year to double their money, if they did as I suggested, and DCA'd. I was recommending BTC at very bad times, and it has taken years for those recommendations to come out from under water. I felt bad about that, so I am more cautious now, when making recommendations. I definitely do recommend buying Monero, here, now. Anything under 0188 is cheap, IMHO. Under $10, a steal. If you are underweight, buy it. In general, people with lower risk tolerance should expect to DCA over a year or more to minimize average draw-downs.
Thanks for the reply
Last week I bought at 150 with the intention of buying on the way down. My first buy on the way down was yesterday at 170. I still can't get used to paying for bricks and receiving pebbles. My subconscious feels we are going up from here.
Large ascending triangle forming.
Top of next oscillation in triangle is probably 0.02 to 0.022
Last week I bought at 150 with the intention of buying on the way down. My first buy on the way down was yesterday at 170. I still can't get used to paying for bricks and receiving pebbles. My subconscious feels we are going up from here.
Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?
If I am honest, not many here are interested into Zcash so I do not see it even competing with XMR. Bear in mind, in order to succeed a coin needs network effect which is created by the community willing to buy and hodl - tech is not sufficient enough (we saw this from btc's first generation shitcoin alternatives).
So far Monero has a community that is willing to buy and hodl, and if the community keeps buying and holding, more people will join into the party and that will accelerate the network effect and price surge to the MoonTM.
If success = price being really high then sure your model works.
Personally it may be fairer to say that price play a part of success. To me it shouldn't play a large part of the "success" definition.
Success doesn't only mean people willing to buy and hold a crypto. Usage/utility and transactional/speculative volume needs to be a factor.
If people are just buying and holding then it is essentially an example of the greater fool theory. Granted that is such a broad spectrum of things that is described as markets go up and down, but I personally would like it if people bought XMR if they need to, not want to just because of hoping the price goes higher.
Then again speculators gonna spec...cu....late.
Success may also involve a threshold of users/nodes that a crypto surpasses. Hitting critical mass is on the road to success, but is it success? I don't think so.
If it holds its adoption over long periods of time then yes it would be successful. But this is 2.5 years into the coin's life, kind of early to call monero successful...yet.
Is anyone else getting bored with this endless channel trading? Its almost as dull as BTC.
AAAAAAA, careful!
Every time someone complains about volatility being "flat"... it seems like that causes a big price crash, LOL
Let's just be happy for the moment that the recent nice big re-valuation gains appear to be STICKING, amirite?
Next leg up will come in due course, I believe... more time to consolidate, more time to accumulate cheap coinz LOL
Maybe you are a clam.
I'm assuming you are not referring to the shellfish....could you explain the meaning and usage of the term 'clam'?
I was being purposely obtuse and used a simple/silly 2 step association. clam>shellfish>selfish
When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic and was looking forward to personal gain steaming from chaos and pain. Big assumptions to be sure and based in part on his prior posts. Maybe some see chaos and pain as inevitable but I would rather see crypto adoption and personal gain without it.
Don't rely on bad, do good.
Thanks for the explanation. I'm not sure I can cope if we start using once removed word associations to parlez; lots of forum folk already struggle with basic semantics.
But I do appreciate your sentiments ie it would be lovely if we could have a more equitable world without pain,misery and chaos as a catalyst and that crypto could act as the means to redistribute wealth more evenly.
Sadly, where the monkeys tread pain, misery and chaos inevitably follow.
@Quicken,
Nice, thanks.
The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.
Nice, thanks.
The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.
Ever the party pooper
Someone needs a new truck
Quote
Zcash has caused a lot of controversy for its method of distributing the crypto currency. The organisation is not set up as an opensource community but as a Company. This is the first major difference to Bitcoin
With Zcash they have taken a different approach and have taken money from investors in the company to create the crypto currency before releasing it. But here comes the catch - for every unit of Z currency you mine during the first 4%, the Company that runs Zcash gets 20%, which will amount to 10% of the total supply. To some people this has been causing concern and ire as they feel that the investors are using the network to unfairly enrich themselves by the power that they control. The backers include Pantera Capital and various Bitcoin celebrities such as Roger Ver and Barry Seibert.
With Zcash they have taken a different approach and have taken money from investors in the company to create the crypto currency before releasing it. But here comes the catch - for every unit of Z currency you mine during the first 4%, the Company that runs Zcash gets 20%, which will amount to 10% of the total supply. To some people this has been causing concern and ire as they feel that the investors are using the network to unfairly enrich themselves by the power that they control. The backers include Pantera Capital and various Bitcoin celebrities such as Roger Ver and Barry Seibert.
Zcash is for ordinary people who wants to get cheated of their money.
Lets make a coin, put some $ in marketing, say it can the coolest things of every other coin and be one of the main sellers and take some % of every mining. Sounds awesome
Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?
That is interesting. It doesn't eliminate the risks inherent in zcash, but it does eliminate most of the smell, so it could see some up-take. The implied risk to XMR price (not to the utility, project, security, community or economy) is that capital will be attracted from XMR to community-zcash, which I will call snarkero, or XZK.Here's how I see it: We know what value XMR had before DNM adoption was mooted, and it was about mcap $10mm. In the current initial stage of adoption, the value is about 10x. Thus, without adoption, the leading crypto in the fungible monetary domain is only worth a small fraction of the value of XMR today, and can only draw a small fraction of the capital away from XMR. The implied price risk amounts to about $1 per XMR, in the long run, as XZK gets the level of adoption seen by XMR before June (when AB insiders started accumulating in earnest).
On the other hand, there may be synergies which increase the value of both coins. Mcap may be mostly linear zero-sum, but building a monetary economy certainly is not. XZK may attract new money into anonymity, which, seeing the living economy and leading liquidity of XMR, then diversifies into XMR. In fact, I tend to think that until and unless XZK is adopted at similar scale, its introduction is likely to help XMR to grow.
The credibility of the team would largely determine the success or failure of XZK. Barring crypto vulnerabilities emerging in the moon math, if the fundamental trust issues could be managed to the satisfaction of the market, I could definitely see DNMs adding snarkero, once it reached a certainly liquidity. If so, they should be early buyers, attempting to front-run the possibility. If they use BTC they can be traced, and subjected to extortion. Therefore, they will need to use XMR to buy their XZK. Bullish.
Indeed I think the ideal outcome might be a zksnark branch in the XMR network. If the two were made transparently interoperable, it would provide immediate boostrap liquidity to the XZK, and mean XZK was already DNM-accepted.
Quote
When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic
U assumend correct.
Interesting, buy and sell walls disappeared.
U assumend correct.
Quote
When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic
U assumend correct.
Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?
If I am honest, not many here are interested into Zcash so I do not see it even competing with XMR. Bear in mind, in order to succeed a coin needs network effect which is created by the community willing to buy and hodl - tech is not sufficient enough (we saw this from btc's first generation shitcoin alternatives).
So far Monero has a community that is willing to buy and hodl, and if the community keeps buying and holding, more people will join into the party and that will accelerate the network effect and price surge to the MoonTM.
Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?
It may be boring, but the bouncing is nice for my favored style. And we're chewing up all the loosely held coins during this base-building, so it is a bullish mode.
Highers/lowers is how you can easily and unequivocally recognize that momentum is forming. Momentum always fails eventually.
TA is the intersection of three factor categories: Aggregate agent statistics, pattern recognition (aka feature engineering), and structural constraints. Structural constraints may be categorized as a priori, deterministic, and stochastic. Market structure factors cross-cut these categories.
But TA is not a value-neutral, purely observational discipline, it is goal-oriented, so optimal control theory plays a role in determining the analytic style, and one of the most useful decision-theoretical frameworks is the partially-ordered Markov decision process, POMDP.
The easiest way to make a nearly optimal bot is to parameterize a POMDP. The state-of-the-art outcomes, however derive from use of structured variational autoencoders for feature engineering in a deep LSTM network, because these open up a much larger dynamical model space, and can extract much more subtle signals.
I keep meaning to make a bot, but the day job, and my manual trading, and my family life have conspired against it. Also: loss aversion.
Highers/lowers is how you can easily and unequivocally recognize that momentum is forming. Momentum always fails eventually.
TA is the intersection of three factor categories: Aggregate agent statistics, pattern recognition (aka feature engineering), and structural constraints. Structural constraints may be categorized as a priori, deterministic, and stochastic. Market structure factors cross-cut these categories.
But TA is not a value-neutral, purely observational discipline, it is goal-oriented, so optimal control theory plays a role in determining the analytic style, and one of the most useful decision-theoretical frameworks is the partially-ordered Markov decision process, POMDP.
The easiest way to make a nearly optimal bot is to parameterize a POMDP. The state-of-the-art outcomes, however derive from use of structured variational autoencoders for feature engineering in a deep LSTM network, because these open up a much larger dynamical model space, and can extract much more subtle signals.
I keep meaning to make a bot, but the day job, and my manual trading, and my family life have conspired against it. Also: loss aversion.
@Quicken,
Nice, thanks.
The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.
Nice, thanks.
The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.
Ever the party pooper
Maybe you are a clam.
I'm assuming you are not referring to the shellfish....could you explain the meaning and usage of the term 'clam'?
I was being purposely obtuse and used a simple/silly 2 step association. clam>shellfish>selfish
When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic and was looking forward to personal gain steaming from chaos and pain. Big assumptions to be sure and based in part on his prior posts. Maybe some see chaos and pain as inevitable but I would rather see crypto adoption and personal gain without it.
Don't rely on bad, do good.
@Quicken,
Nice, thanks.
The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.
Nice, thanks.
The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.
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