[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1076.

alphahacktivist

full member

Activity: 235

Merit: 100

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 01:24:20 PM

Quote from: whap on September 16, 2016, 01:15:46 PM

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 12:56:41 PM

really sad for xmr....i had really high expectations its still the better coin but i could imagine that alphabay will soon terminate the acceptance of xmr Embarrassed

@aminorex

He did it right. Its only 1,8% acceptance. Of course you can make it looking better with different settings but the truth is that the acceptance is decreasing. He looked for the whole acceptance and the site doesnt limit to this number of pages. So 1.8% is correct. Everyone here can prove it by himself

It's comon logic, price goes down and the average drug dealer has no incentive to accept Monero. Why? Bc he has absolutely NO clue about the fundamentals, he prolly only read the Mainstream news and that's it. Wait for the bottom to turn in with some weeks of confirmation and watch the acceptance grow. Stop being so short minded plz, i like your critical attitude, but this is pure FUD.

I totally agree to you. I dont fight against anyone here. I just share my thoughts and for the moment i think for us as a collective that short is better. I mean we are here like ~10 active people. We dont dominate the market so we can help us cause we dont play against each other here.

HODL

sorry bro

N-rG

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: whap on September 16, 2016, 01:15:46 PM

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 12:56:41 PM

really sad for xmr....i had really high expectations its still the better coin but i could imagine that alphabay will soon terminate the acceptance of xmr Embarrassed

@aminorex

He did it right. Its only 1,8% acceptance. Of course you can make it looking better with different settings but the truth is that the acceptance is decreasing. He looked for the whole acceptance and the site doesnt limit to this number of pages. So 1.8% is correct. Everyone here can prove it by himself

It's comon logic, price goes down and the average drug dealer has no incentive to accept Monero. Why? Bc he has absolutely NO clue about the fundamentals, he prolly only read the Mainstream news and that's it. Wait for the bottom to turn in with some weeks of confirmation and watch the acceptance grow. Stop being so short minded plz, i like your critical attitude, but this is pure FUD.

I totally agree to you. I dont fight against anyone here. I just share my thoughts and for the moment i think for us as a collective that short is better. I mean we are here like ~10 active people. We dont dominate the market so we can help us cause we dont play against each other here.

MrGood

full member

Activity: 125

Merit: 100

Chief Technology Officer, NYC

Quote from: ChooseASide on September 15, 2016, 06:13:37 AM

Ready for the next leg up?

http://itsalmo.st/#time_upaux

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUwszL6J81I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSdcG1e9APE

Specifically:-

Quote

And ooh, ooh
You're working so hard
You played your card
So what's the payoff?
And ooh, ooh
Big talk is cheap
You gotta go deeper than deep
To get me off

BitcoinNewsMagazine

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1164

Need to think long term. With the increasing sophistication of blockchain analysis tools I think it is probably inevitable that darknet markets switch from Bitcoin to Monero. Takes time. Even rpietila mentioned a few pages back that he expects price to correct to .01. No big deal, just buy with both hands then.

whap

member

Activity: 106

Merit: 10

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 12:56:41 PM

really sad for xmr....i had really high expectations its still the better coin but i could imagine that alphabay will soon terminate the acceptance of xmr Embarrassed

@aminorex

He did it right. Its only 1,8% acceptance. Of course you can make it looking better with different settings but the truth is that the acceptance is decreasing. He looked for the whole acceptance and the site doesnt limit to this number of pages. So 1.8% is correct. Everyone here can prove it by himself

It's comon logic, price goes down and the average drug dealer has no incentive to accept Monero. Why? Bc he has absolutely NO clue about the fundamentals, he prolly only read the Mainstream news and that's it. Wait for the bottom to turn in with some weeks of confirmation and watch the acceptance grow. Stop being so short minded plz, i like your critical attitude, but this is pure FUD.

eid

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Quote from: aminorex on September 16, 2016, 12:53:29 PM

Quote from: eid on September 16, 2016, 12:34:19 PM

[There's no need to use a page cap. The left menu shows the number of sales. You can just search for monero vendors and work out the percentage.

Stimulants:
Total sales: 23347
Monero sales: 425
= 1.82%

That's just wrong. [Firstly, these are not sales. These are listings. Secondly,] you're comparing the result of a search by one process with some unknown reported number. There's no evidence that this number is comparable, or even accurate, since it can't be mapped to actual listing. You're comparing apples and oranges. The page cap is imposed by the site, not by me. To make a valid sampling you have to sample both populations the same way. You can slice it to get under the cap (as I did with the use of trust level limits). I don't know of any other way to sample both populations comparably.

Stimulants, level 9-10, gives 8 XMR listings and 62 BTC listings, or 13% XMR support.
Stimulants, level 7-8, gives 47 XMR listings and 103 BTC listings, or 46% XMR support.

That is a valid comparison. Your numbers are just a units error, statistically incoherent.

The more interesting numbers would be the sales volumes. Because if sales volume is increasing, we're golden, and it doen't matter if 13% (the lowest number in evidence) or 46% (the highest number in evidence) of the vendors are supporting XMR.'

Firstly, you're correct. I should have used "listings" instead of sales.

You're also correct on my calculations. The number of listings in each category is being reported completely wrong on the left menu. For instance, pressed pills shows 269 listings when there are actually ~60.

My apologies for the mistake everyone.

N-rG

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: RayX12 on September 16, 2016, 01:04:04 PM

Quote from: aminorex on September 16, 2016, 12:53:29 PM

Quote from: eid on September 16, 2016, 12:34:19 PM

[There's no need to use a page cap. The left menu shows the number of sales. You can just search for monero vendors and work out the percentage.

Stimulants:
Total sales: 23347
Monero sales: 425
= 1.82%

That's just wrong. [Firstly, these are not sales. These are listings. Secondly,] you're comparing the result of a search by one process with some unknown reported number. There's no evidence that this number is comparable, or even accurate, since it can't be mapped to actual listing. You're comparing apples and oranges. The page cap is imposed by the site, not by me. To make a valid sampling you have to sample both populations the same way. You can slice it to get under the cap (as I did with the use of trust level limits). I don't know of any other way to sample both populations comparably.

Stimulants, level 9-10, gives 8 XMR listings and 62 BTC listings, or 13% XMR support.
Stimulants, level 7-8, gives 47 XMR listings and 103 BTC listings, or 46% XMR support.

That is a valid comparison. Your numbers are just a units error, statistically incoherent.

The more interesting numbers would be the sales volumes. Because if sales volume is increasing, we're golden, and it doen't matter if 13% (the lowest number in evidence) or 46% (the highest number in evidence) of the vendors are supporting XMR.'

Yep I also checked some listing on my own since those numbers seem so low.

Searched for weed on level 7 and found 13.1% listings using monero
Searched for cocaine on level 7 and found 25% listing using monero

Its so funny that people say that you cannot make statistic like this and then do it also like this but in their favour xD Well but we dont have to argue about that. The future will show who is right or not. I wish us all the best

RayX12

hero member

Activity: 952

Merit: 552

Quote from: aminorex on September 16, 2016, 12:53:29 PM

Quote from: eid on September 16, 2016, 12:34:19 PM

[There's no need to use a page cap. The left menu shows the number of sales. You can just search for monero vendors and work out the percentage.

Stimulants:
Total sales: 23347
Monero sales: 425
= 1.82%

That's just wrong. [Firstly, these are not sales. These are listings. Secondly,] you're comparing the result of a search by one process with some unknown reported number. There's no evidence that this number is comparable, or even accurate, since it can't be mapped to actual listing. You're comparing apples and oranges. The page cap is imposed by the site, not by me. To make a valid sampling you have to sample both populations the same way. You can slice it to get under the cap (as I did with the use of trust level limits). I don't know of any other way to sample both populations comparably.

Stimulants, level 9-10, gives 8 XMR listings and 62 BTC listings, or 13% XMR support.
Stimulants, level 7-8, gives 47 XMR listings and 103 BTC listings, or 46% XMR support.

That is a valid comparison. Your numbers are just a units error, statistically incoherent.

The more interesting numbers would be the sales volumes. Because if sales volume is increasing, we're golden, and it doen't matter if 13% (the lowest number in evidence) or 46% (the highest number in evidence) of the vendors are supporting XMR.'

Yep, pure FUD, I also checked some listing on my own since those numbers seem very low.

Searched for weed on level 7 and found 13.1% listings using monero
Searched for cocaine on level 7 and found 25% listing using monero

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 12:56:41 PM

really sad for xmr....i had really high expectations its still the better coin but i could imagine that alphabay will soon terminate the acceptance of xmr Embarrassed

@aminorex

He did it right. Its only 1,8% acceptance. Of course you can make it looking better with different settings but the truth is that the acceptance is decreasing. He looked for the whole acceptance and the site doesnt limit to this number of pages. So 1.8% is correct. Everyone here can prove it by himself

This is a trilemma situation: Malice, incompetence, or delusion. You can't pick random numbers and use them as statistical comparables. You have to sample by the same method for both populations.

MrGood

full member

Activity: 125

Merit: 100

Chief Technology Officer, NYC

Quote from: ChooseASide on September 15, 2016, 06:13:37 AM

Ready for the next leg up?

http://itsalmo.st/#time_upaux

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUwszL6J81I

Raise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSdcG1e9APE

obit33

sr. member

Activity: 514

Merit: 258

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 12:56:41 PM

really sad for xmr....i had really high expectations its still the better coin but i could imagine that alphabay will soon terminate the acceptance of xmr Embarrassed

@aminorex

He did it right. Its only 1,8% acceptance. Of course you can make it looking better with different settings but the truth is that the acceptance is decreasing.

ha ha, panicking newbie...

please, sell your coins now and drive the price to 0.0139, I'll be a happy buyer!

best regards

alphahacktivist

full member

Activity: 235

Merit: 100

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/52rqb4/need_help_in_6_to_8_days/

check through all his posts, in my strongest opinion, its an xmr-usd platform.

N-rG

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

really sad for xmr....i had really high expectations its still the better coin but i could imagine that alphabay will soon terminate the acceptance of xmr Embarrassed

@aminorex

He did it right. Its only 1,8% acceptance. Of course you can make it looking better with different settings but the truth is that the acceptance is decreasing. He looked for the whole acceptance and the site doesnt limit to this number of pages. So 1.8% is correct. Everyone here can prove it by himself

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: eid on September 16, 2016, 12:34:19 PM

[There's no need to use a page cap. The left menu shows the number of sales. You can just search for monero vendors and work out the percentage.

Stimulants:
Total sales: 23347
Monero sales: 425
= 1.82%

That's just wrong. [Firstly, these are not sales. These are listings. Secondly,] you're comparing the result of a search by one process with some unknown reported number. There's no evidence that this number is comparable, or even accurate, since it can't be mapped to actual listing. You're comparing apples and oranges. The page cap is imposed by the site, not by me. To make a valid sampling you have to sample both populations the same way. You can slice it to get under the cap (as I did with the use of trust level limits). I don't know of any other way to sample both populations comparably.

Stimulants, level 9-10, gives 8 XMR listings and 62 BTC listings, or 13% XMR support.
Stimulants, level 7-8, gives 47 XMR listings and 103 BTC listings, or 46% XMR support.

That is a valid comparison. Your numbers are just a units error, statistically incoherent.

The more interesting numbers would be the sales volumes. Because if sales volume is increasing, we're golden, and it doen't matter if 13% (the lowest number in evidence) or 46% (the highest number in evidence) of the vendors are supporting XMR.'

alphahacktivist

full member

Activity: 235

Merit: 100

yeap. 0.0145ish *sigh*

eid

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Quote from: dloghwak on September 16, 2016, 12:11:27 PM

Care to share a screenshot for those of us who don't have tor running?

http://imgur.com/a/T9vcD

15 sales per page.

eid

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Quote from: aminorex on September 16, 2016, 11:36:04 AM

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 11:12:35 AM

Quote

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

Never one to trust blindly what can easily be verified, I did my own sampling: 43 bitcoin to 8 monero, 18.6% (Page count, psychedelics, trust levels 4 to 5, to stay under page cap). Maybe you slipped a decimal.

When I searched stimulants I got 29 pages of monero vendors, 50 pages of bitcoin vendors (page cap).

Quote from: explorer on September 16, 2016, 11:32:11 AM

Last low of 0.001612 was like that. Just kind of ran out of dump, and a couple weeks later, Pow!

Think about it from the point of view of a large accumulator. Do you want to scoop before the queue is full? Do you want to scoop higher or lower? You wait until there are no lower asks before you take what you can get while you can still get it. You probe and tickle it down where you can, slap it down where you must, and when it just isn't going to go lower, and there is a good supply, you nab it.

Given 1/5 uptake before there is a GUI or usable multisig, I predict 50% adoption by end of 2017. el rippo was right, and I was too pessimistic: 1 bn mcap in 15 months time. BTC parity by 2021. 200x by 2024.

Only black markets matter for innovation, and only large accumulators matter for the long-term price.

There's no need to use a page cap. The left menu shows the number of sales. You can just search for monero vendors and work out the percentage.

Stimulants:

Total sales: 23347
Monero sales: 425

= 1.82%

dloghwak

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Quote from: aminorex on September 16, 2016, 11:36:04 AM

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 11:12:35 AM

Quote

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

Never one to trust blindly what can easily be verified, I did my own sampling: 43 bitcoin to 8 monero, 18.6% (Page count, psychedelics, trust levels 4 to 5, to stay under page cap). Maybe you slipped a decimal.

When I searched stimulants I got 29 pages of monero vendors, 50 pages of bitcoin vendors (page cap).

Quote from: explorer on September 16, 2016, 11:32:11 AM

Last low of 0.001612 was like that. Just kind of ran out of dump, and a couple weeks later, Pow!

Think about it from the point of view of a large accumulator. Do you want to scoop before the queue is full? Do you want to scoop higher or lower? You wait until there are no lower asks before you take what you can get while you can still get it. You probe and tickle it down where you can, slap it down where you must, and when it just isn't going to go lower, and there is a good supply, you nab it.

Given 1/5 uptake before there is a GUI or usable multisig, I predict 50% adoption by end of 2017. el rippo was right, and I was too pessimistic: 1 bn mcap in 15 months time. BTC parity by 2021. 200x by 2024.

Only black markets matter for innovation, and only large accumulators matter for the long-term price.

Care to share a screenshot for those of us who don't have tor running?

Azael

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: aminorex on September 16, 2016, 11:47:04 AM

Quote from: Azael on September 16, 2016, 11:44:42 AM

So the rationale is that the success of your XMR short from the point you entered it depends on if the amount of Stimulants accepting XMR decrease on Alpha?

I don't question the rationale, but rather the premise, the factual claim.

Doesn't matter much without knowing the why anyway. Sites disable payments in X if they have some issue with it that needs to be sorted out.

Azael

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: Azael on September 16, 2016, 11:44:42 AM

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 11:37:13 AM

Quote from: Azael on September 16, 2016, 11:14:10 AM

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 11:12:35 AM

Hi guys,

i checked AlphaBay again and have unfortunately not so good news.

few days before i said

Quote

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

I sold my XMR stock for now.

And you have a short position now?

yes, for sure.

So the rationale is that the success of your XMR short from the point you entered it depends on if the amount of Stimulants accepting XMR decrease on Alpha?

Quote from: N-rG on September 16, 2016, 11:47:12 AM

Yes. I believe the success of XMR depends on its acceptance. Since the acceptance is decreasing and the price is falling for days, i go for short.

I agree on the acceptance part but I think the acceptance and price will be increasing in the future despite temporary hickups. Anyway I might've been on the other side of that trade if it was below 0.0155 but good luck!

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1076. (Read 3314343 times)