I live in Canada so I went with CAD myself for the fiat component. I am a bit nervous regarding USD at the moment, other interesting choices are EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, and CHF.
GBP FTW.
Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1084. (Read 3314330 times)
GBP FTW.
I made a scenario analysis on XMR price (scenarios weighted with their probabilities).
In 365 days, my expected value is 4.5x the current price. This includes scenarios ranging from total loss to unexpectedly large rise.
The thing that makes cryptos a premier asset is the asymmetrical risk and reward. It is in my view equally probable for the price to either crash, boom, or stay roughly the same, in a period of 12 months. The nice thing is that a boom means multiplying the current wealth by a large factor, but the risk "only" means losing it. As a result, it is wildly positive expected value (+EV).
ADD: Aminorex was correct with his thesis that one should rather sell all his BTC and invest 1/3 in XMR and 2/3 in USD, than keep 95% of the BTC and buy a small XMR position with the rest.
Since XMR is still only 1% of BTC marketcapwise, the above still holds.
In 365 days, my expected value is 4.5x the current price. This includes scenarios ranging from total loss to unexpectedly large rise.
The thing that makes cryptos a premier asset is the asymmetrical risk and reward. It is in my view equally probable for the price to either crash, boom, or stay roughly the same, in a period of 12 months. The nice thing is that a boom means multiplying the current wealth by a large factor, but the risk "only" means losing it. As a result, it is wildly positive expected value (+EV).
ADD: Aminorex was correct with his thesis that one should rather sell all his BTC and invest 1/3 in XMR and 2/3 in USD, than keep 95% of the BTC and buy a small XMR position with the rest.
Since XMR is still only 1% of BTC marketcapwise, the above still holds.
I agree with the concept of a XMR / fiat mix to replace XBT holdings. As for the actual mix I see it as a matter of one's risk tolerance and financial position. As for which fiat that is also a matter of personal circumstances, in particular which currency is one's expenses denominated. I live in Canada so I went with CAD myself for the fiat component. I am a bit nervous regarding USD at the moment, other interesting choices are EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, and CHF.
Evidently the GUI is hiding in the woods in Winston Salem?
I'm confused. Why Winston Salem?
Witch hunts, etc.
The witch hunts was Salem Massachusetts.
Edit: Winston Salem is in North Carolina.
http://wlos.com/news/local/clown-sightings-continue-spread-to-winston-salem
I misinterpreted the pestering for the GUI's release as a witch hunt
addition: http://www.wxii12.com/news/reported-winstonsalem-clown-sighting-kid-luring-attempt-was-false-police-say/41580686
Evidently the GUI is hiding in the woods in Winston Salem?
I'm confused. Why Winston Salem?
Witch hunts, etc.
The witch hunts was Salem Massachusetts.
Edit: Winston Salem is in North Carolina.
Evidently the GUI is hiding in the woods in Winston Salem?
I'm confused. Why Winston Salem?
Witch hunts, etc.
Gotcha.
Evidently the GUI is hiding in the woods in Winston Salem?
I'm confused. Why Winston Salem?
Witch hunts, etc.
Evidently the GUI is hiding in the woods in Winston Salem?
I'm confused. Why Winston Salem?
Evidently the GUI is hiding in the woods in Winston Salem?
I thought we'd cancelled the GUI?
I just heard today that user interface is so yesterday and today it's user experience. So forget about the GUI, we need a GUX. How could the devs have missed this?
Please don't say I could do this myself as I have no skills unless you need janitorial help.
As usual no price predictions from me. No skills there either. I just buy, hold and occasionally use. My time frame is l o n g. . . . .
Please don't say I could do this myself as I have no skills unless you need janitorial help.
As usual no price predictions from me. No skills there either. I just buy, hold and occasionally use. My time frame is l o n g. . . . .
Evidently the GUI is hiding in the woods in Winston Salem?
Wedge/Pennant forming.
Green candles have been on higher volume, but we'll see which way it breaks soon enough.
Green candles have been on higher volume, but we'll see which way it breaks soon enough.
WTF just happened to bitcoin at bitfinex? Interesting coincidence given the similar move in XMR...
So are you pretty much saying take out a portion of your whole entire crypto portfolio and put it into PM's?
I like cash-like things right now. Crypto is good. So are PMs. It's just a good time to de-risk, and lever only very judiciously. I see more upside asymmetry in XMR than in anything else, so I want the largest possible position, but I can't put everything in crypto. I can't even put all my crypto in XMR, due to marginal tail risk cases. Equities, bonds, real estate, all seem very stretched.
I am thinking a Trump presidency could crash USD. Either way, the next administration is going to go full-on fiscal stimulus, and USD is near its peak. I like market-making in XMR because it is back and forth between BTC and XMR. Another appealling trading venue is the Gold/Silver pair. There is no taxable event until/unless you take out some USD, and you are always in PMs, worst case. But for the moment, USD is where it is at. As long as oil is crashing, PMs are going to have a huge drag. I like shorting all the things right now (except XMR). Also GBPJPY is a good bet. I nibble whenever it dips under 130.
So are you pretty much saying take out a portion of your whole entire crypto portfolio and put it into PM's? I think this is a pretty smart thing to do, but I would still ride out the rest of this year and hold XMR. You're right though, if this were to happen it would be smart to keep it in either crypto or PM's to avoid dealing with Uncle Sam... But honestly though, I really don't think Trump will win; there seems to be an unavoidable manipulation in the election this year. Who knows though, just the change from a somewhat like-able guy as president to either an old/ill witch or a short-fused oompa loompa will cause chaos in the markets regardless... remember, a lot of countries still don't like doing "business" with a woman anyways.
Back on point though, love reading your insights when I come check this speculation thread from time to time. I still feel that if it does end up dipping to 160 again and possibly below it while remaining to have a strong support at 150 or 155 for the next couple weeks will be extremely bullish and will cause some people to start trusting the XMR market again... not to mention, DNM users will start to see that this isn't some elaborate "pump and dump" scheme.
The whale is probably out of the market now. He did what he was going to do. Now this market is trading the effect that the whale had on sentiment. Its going to be interesting to see what if any effect he had on the less short term.
This ^
I'm quite surprised the bearwhale did not believe it would keep going below 0.016. He was bullish enough at this time to close. If even the bears are not bears, who will be?
The whale is probably out of the market now. He did what he was going to do. Now this market is trading the effect that the whale had on sentiment. Its going to be interesting to see what if any effect he had on the less short term.
Well played, bullwhale. Well played.
If we manage to go above 0,019 i believe hell will break loose 
My condolences to all the short sellers who still have a position open.
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