Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1086. (Read 3314330 times)

The best part is that Monero can walk the path that Bitcoin has paved, meaning Monero can piggyback off/improve upon everything Bitcoin has mothered while avoiding many wrong turns, and where that road ends we have the means to go further.

All of the fevered dreams of bitcoin past become possible again in Monero, because it does not suffer the fatal defects of bitcoin.  The world wants, needs this, even if they don't know it yet.  In 10 years time, I think 200x minimum, or back to a nickel.

Am I reading correctly, are you calling 2000 usd/XMR?
Do you think it will be the future ATH or are you seeing an opportunity to go even beyond that? 

Now you tell me?  But kittens!  Although mine is a killer.

Anyway back on topic.  After all this is the official GUI speculation thread.  When the work needed for the completion of the GUI was funded by donations from the generous Monero community earlier this year I estimated that it would be ready by the end of September and stated Oct 2 as it is a Monday.

Nice. Thanks for the h/t.

I think rationality only goes so far though. You need a bright and Shining Vision in order to cling to a stable point in the distance when the crap storm is besetting you on all sides.

Folks just aren't accustomed to the kind of volatility that we are going to go through. I look around me and all I can see are dinosaurs in their death throes. I am positively pining for bat country.

Stuff is going to get real people. Like Wars and crap.

You're a nasty vicious little bugger aren't you?
Look iB, when you get angry and frustrated it is only yourself who is feeling those emotions. it's like drinking poison and hoping that the other person will be affected. That's not how it works, tell this to my students all the time. Actually impressed how much effort you put into this after you got triggered. Now, think about how others feel when you bash them.. it's not a nice feeling, right? do you feel better now? I don't feel good myself when i see another person suffer.   
I'd much rather work together than hate together. We are all in this XMR ship together. I'd rather put my energy into something useful.
and yes BLK was an epic scam i agree. i have no idea what happened with excoin, haven't been that active on cc's for over a year now.

You know. I'm doing escrow with this guy. Or rather he just keeps sending me bitcoins and then asking for them back because "his buyer isnt coming through". Which of course could be totally true, I don't know, but I cant help but feel the existential dread of "maybe he is just trying to use me to clean his bitcoins". It's the first time its been personal rather than just intellectual. Monero adoption will not be propelled by intellectual musings, it will be propelled by that unpleasant gut feeling.

*edit* Starting this day forward I am probably going to begin segregating my bitcoin into trusted unsure and likely dirty. Isn't that just sad? Can you imagine segregating your dollar bills out by how likely you thought they were to have microscopic specs of cocaine on them?

I made a scenario analysis on XMR price (scenarios weighted with their probabilities).

In 365 days, my expected value is 4.5x the current price. This includes scenarios ranging from total loss to unexpectedly large rise.

The thing that makes cryptos a premier asset is the asymmetrical risk and reward. It is in my view equally probable for the price to either crash, boom, or stay roughly the same, in a period of 12 months. The nice thing is that a boom means multiplying the current wealth by a large factor, but the risk "only" means losing it. As a result, it is wildly positive expected value (+EV).

ADD: Aminorex was correct with his thesis that one should rather sell all his BTC and invest 1/3 in XMR and 2/3 in USD, than keep 95% of the BTC and buy a small XMR position with the rest.

Since XMR is still only 1% of BTC marketcapwise, the above still holds.

Prisoners' (bagholders') dilemma?

By saying this you most likely are a decent person.

How would it look like if there is a buy order of 13 000 000 XMR near the current price when there is only 12 900 000 XMR in the whole universe currently?
To be low volatile the market cap has to exceed the current marketcap of bitcoin. There are bitcoin whales who can dump bitcoin to the bottomless pit.

One thing I do not understand: why the big guys dump their Moneros? What is the point? Isn't it better simply to drive the price higher and higher and higher. Those same whales will benefit because new people will adapt Monero and once the new people hold it for some time they are also happy with the increase in purchasing power.

Why not just drive the price higher than the price of bitcoin...? It is possible but it requires a lot of dollars obviously. But the dollars will come when there is a bull market.

Greed is a desire to have more money. Therefore, the fact that there are greedy people is one more proof Monero is considered to be valuable enough for accumulation (which is greed in its essence).

Beside this you said also other things that might be cool or not, basicly dont matter. But this really made me to reply.

What  fluffypony said is how it is. Monero is opensource project without any premine or ICO or whatever. There is no foundation. None of those that wrote code got any XMR for free. They had to buy them with money they earned doing something else. So what happens with that is no ones buisness.


There were few projects founded. One is also a GUI that is worked on from January. With price increase that bounty of 18k XMR also got a bigger appeal. A year ago that was $10k today is way more. So I am sure, since is totally naturally, that coder that working on GUI is focusing way more then he did at beginning of year.


For those that likes coins that have ICO , premines and foundations or even big mega money corporations behind, should just forget about Monero. Why waste your time with something that is in basic something you dont want. And there are so many options.

Sell them now.  You are not worthy.  Yes, it is a game.  You don't have a clue what the game is.  Come back and buy them for ten or twenty times the price when you've learned what the game is.  You could be sitting on 200x profit right now. But you aren't.  Now you want to walk away from another 200x.  Be my guest.  We need this shake-out.

BTW: I'm really not a nice person at all.

youre a nice guy but its the dumbest thing ive been hearing since 0.024...

example :

i change my xmr (10usd) to btc (600usd) and i have a balance of 1btc.

at this point no need to say IF, but when the price reaches 0.008btc per xmr, i will have twice as much xmr as i have now.

i dont see xmr reach even 0.025. denial is making me baghold. i could have gone out with 4x profit at 0.02.. but im holding still even now.

Indeed this isn't just cheap, it is crazy, stupid cheap.

Let's get a little perspective:

- Negative interest rates.
- Pervasive electronic surveillance.
- Try moving gold through an airport some time.
- Leading economists and central bankers want to eliminate large denominations of currency.
- Over 50% of the material world economy driven underground.
- Largest bank in the world has more notional derivatives outstanding than the global GDP - name me an asset with less counterparty risk than XMR?
- Generational deflation/hyper-inflation bifurcation impending - good luck with those EUR.

There is nothing else on the planet which qualifies as money. Nothing else is fungible, private, and liquid. There can be only one.  The market has chosen, and what we think isn't going to matter one bit.


What you are not getting is that there is no other money.  Monero is it.  Frankly, I don't get it either.  I am merely human, and hence quite stupid.  But that's the fact, and somehow I have to wrap my head around it, and deal with it, or I will suffer for my limited rationality.  You think this is a game.  It is, but it is not the game that you think you are playing.

XMR is still up 200x from my first purchase, and I think it is good for another 200x by 2025.


This.  Marketcap has to go up and volume has to go down.  Selling XMR at these prices is just insanely stupid.

De-lever and de-risk, people.  Remove your coins from the exchange.  Losing even one XMR is not an option at this point.  Consider it from an effective altruist viewpoint:  Losing one XMR today is like killing twenty people 10 years from now.  That's roughly how many lives you could have saved by spending that 1 XMR wisely at a reasonable future value.  Not to mention the kittens.

Who exactly are you accusing?  Markets market.  We would rather have that than the opposite.  Greedy regulars are not causing this correction.  >500℅ rise over a few weeks is.

The thing that im not understanding properly is,

everybody who bought monero is expecting to make money, but if the price keeps plumetting down, the audience will get tired of it and wont give it the chance it needs.

lets be honest here 8/10 of the people who have monero now bought after 22nd of august.

how would they possibly make money out of it if the price keeps getting downtrended and finding new lows everyday.

the whales are building walls over walls but buy support is not able to hold the price at all.

this downtrend in my opinion is not over yet. unless somehow several btc whales jump in the train and pump the price upwards. however less likely.

the monero dev team also dont seem to care much. i witnessed a conversation between fluffypony and denverthedinozor on polo yesterday. the latter asked when the gui will be available and the former said, monero is open source, thus when the dev feels like it they will work on it and release it. that doesnt seem like its going to happen anytime soon. i believe the foundation made a lot of money in the hype and thus dont really care about the system anymore.

believe it or not, i am not fudding for monero to fall. i am bagholding a very decent amount myself. im still x3 profitable at the moment. however if the situation doesnt change, i will find it useless to hold any at all. ive been holding even after we came from 0.026 to 0.016 without even thinking of selling.

everybody keeps saying : whales are accumulting, whales are buying low, death to shorters. or whatever else they say. however at the current pace of development for monero, shorters are the current winners.

the price was "supposedly" stable at 0.021. then 0.020, then finding new "support" at 0.019. now we are at 0.01629 at time of writing. and the boat keeps finding new holes without being able to cover the previous hole.

i do realise and accept that a coin will not just go up and up and up (that be more likely a scam than real)

however, whales and buyers should find a spot and stay on it, instead of plumetting it down further and eventually resulting in less people being keen to trade, buy, baghold or support it.

before some people comes saying : instead of talking, build a project and put it live yourself. in my defense my team is building a project. we should be able to launch at 25-26th september. however if the price keeps finding new lows, the project will be much useless and we would have lost 30days building something that wont mean anything.

if the foundation dont come foreward stating what they are building and when its scheduled, whats going to happen, how things are going to work.. the system of monero will have another 2years of sleep or more and God knows if it will ever wake up again.

the audience is here, the demand is existant, the need is existant, what do they need more to build things for monero now? what more do they need to make things work? when the hell the 1year old promised gui wallet will be available?

and who are the whales who are bringing the price down even further? ETH foundation? BTC whales scared of parity? we have all seen how assface the eth foundation are and how they tried to bring ETC down by fudding and dumping. could they be the one who are after monero dumps? who knows...

just my 2 cents

Looks like 0.016 is being defended well. Don't see .015 re-entry especially with all the news coming out of everywhere. Ideally the new floor from this whole DNM run should have been 0.02 to give XMR a lot more visibility and welcoming merchants, but this coin has attracted more greedy regulars than any coin I have seen in my time in Bitcointalk.

Like Adam Sandler said "What is wrong with you people"?