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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1117. (Read 3314330 times)

legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
September 05, 2016, 06:41:15 PM
Were other people unable to access BCT for a couple hours?

time to take a nap?  Wink

HA! Cheesy That is exactly what I did.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
September 05, 2016, 06:36:22 PM
Just a 10% push more at current mc's to top LTC. That will be some kind of a milestone imho.
We passed that milestone once already then slipped back.

Anyhow, I know the walrus was Paul, but who is the vulture?
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
September 05, 2016, 06:34:07 PM
Were other people unable to access BCT for a couple hours?

time to take a nap?  Wink
legendary
Activity: 3570
Merit: 1959
September 05, 2016, 06:31:33 PM
Were other people unable to access BCT for a couple hours?

yes. it's been off and on for a bit now.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
September 05, 2016, 06:30:33 PM
Were other people unable to access BCT for a couple hours?
sr. member
Activity: 700
Merit: 250
September 05, 2016, 04:52:51 PM
Just a 10% push more at current mc's to top LTC. That will be some kind of a milestone imho.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
September 05, 2016, 04:33:48 PM
TA is very apt for a speculation thread.  I find it comforting when many are predicting correction.  It implies money on the sidelines.

Who is the "vulture" guy?

People on the sidelines might be the very same people pumped bitcoin up on Sunday. Monero dump can possibly be also just manipulation with excessive dumps on margin.
I do not like the fact that the margin dumpers can make money with Monero. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. Dumping should not be the way to make money - nobody benefits from it. It hurts the community as a collective when their investments lose value. Also those who dump can very well be in long position and make their money in that way, win-win situation.  Smiley
That can be achieved if there are enough bids close to the market.

That's right! Everyone listen to Mr. LendAtStupidLowRates since margin opened!


TA is very apt for a speculation thread.  I find it comforting when many are predicting correction.  It implies money on the sidelines.

Who is the "vulture" guy?

People on the sidelines might be the very same people pumped bitcoin up on Sunday. Monero dump can possibly be also just manipulation with excessive dumps on margin.
I do not like the fact that the margin dumpers can make money with Monero. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. Dumping should not be the way to make money - nobody benefits from it. It hurts the community as a collective when their investments lose value. Also those who dump can very well be in long position and make their money in that way, win-win situation.  Smiley
That can be achieved if there are enough bids close to the market.

Its like you said. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. If there isnt that yet the price is still high, this is an indication that maybe the price ought not be so high. A high price on low liquidity is not healthy. Short sellers help to keep this in check. They are useful little parasites. Like medical leeches.

The leechers are the ones doing the lending and telling everyone else to shore up the price.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
September 05, 2016, 04:13:28 PM
[
When the market cap of Monero will exceed the marketcap of bitcoin that will be a great day. When shall it happen?

In the beginning I thought alts are secondary to Bitcoin, so can only serve niches that entitle them to at max a few % of marketcap. Bitcoin used to be between 90-95% of total crypto marketcap then.

Some time after I had bought into Monero, I realised that it does everything that Bitcoin does, but better (by being anonymous by design). This lead me to think that normal innovation adoption rules apply, and even if Commodore 64 has 100% of the markets at some point, it can be replaced by IBM PC, or NES, or both, subsequently. For this stage, I even formulated the wealth preservation theorem that stated "if any of the alts reaches 20% of BTC marketcap for the reason that it is better than BTC, this will cause 2-5% of BTC wealth to move to that alt for wealth preservation/hedging, which will snowball the alt to become 80% instead of 20% (hence trump BTC in market cap).

Now I am unsure if such a mechanism would actually take place, due to so much inertia that has been accumulated in the system. So I am leaning towards peaceful coexistence, which allows multiple coins to live and have higher and lower market caps. The history shows this is not a winner-takes-it-all market, even if I had thought so. The opposite is true: small things grow and die, BTC stays. But BTC does not account for 90-95% of the market cap any more, as the small things have grown faster.

Yes, there is still a scenario that some coin will take over Bitcoin, and the only coin that has realistic chance to do it is Monero. This will likely require a major flaw in Bitcoin first, but it is already suffering from a death by thousand cuts, if we are honest and clear-sighted.

There is an aspect of Monero that is still not understood my many if not most market participants and the above post is a good example. This is of course the maximum 1 MB blocksize in Bitcoin issue, which is not mentioned in the post. Ironically I was introduced to Monero in 2014 when I came across rpietila's old Altcoin Observer thread by accident while researching the blocksize issue in Bitcoin. At the time I considered the 1 MB blocksize issue in Bitcoin a serious but fixable flaw that was not getting the attention that it warranted. Now I am convinced that it is a major flaw with no clear solution and it is possible that a solution may not exist at all, making it a fatal flaw. In order to address this flaw the only solutions that I am aware of require both an adaptive blocksize limit and a tail emission.

The economics then become rather stark. If one eliminates tokens whose primary purpose is or was something other than use as a currency by end users. Then one gets Bitcoin, Litecoin, Monero, Dash, Dogecoin and we are down to number 13 in market cap. Litecoin has the same major or fatal flaw as Bitcoin. Then we get Monero. Next on the list is Dash which also has the same major flaw. One could argue however the flaw in the case of Dash as not fatal because unlike Litecoin or Bitcoin, Dash has at least a very small chance of incorporating a tail emission. Ironically this is because of the controversy surrounding the instamine launch of Dash. The next in line is Dogecoin which already has a tail emission. If it implements an adaptive blocksize for example similar to that in Monero it could become a contender.

If we consider that there is a valid pent up demand for transactions that Bitcoin has not been able to meet for close to three years nor for that matter can any of its other major competitors , then I would consider the highly toxic position of someone that is caught short Monero at this point, if even a small fraction of the growth in Bitcoin, that could have occurred were it not for the 1 MB blocksize limit in Bitcoin, were flow instead to Monero. Crypto Kingdom by the way just recently got a very minuscule dose of this deadly financial poison, and is now on the way to a full recovery.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
September 05, 2016, 03:14:52 PM
TA is very apt for a speculation thread.  I find it comforting when many are predicting correction.  It implies money on the sidelines.

Who is the "vulture" guy?

People on the sidelines might be the very same people pumped bitcoin up on Sunday. Monero dump can possibly be also just manipulation with excessive dumps on margin.
I do not like the fact that the margin dumpers can make money with Monero. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. Dumping should not be the way to make money - nobody benefits from it. It hurts the community as a collective when their investments lose value. Also those who dump can very well be in long position and make their money in that way, win-win situation.  Smiley
That can be achieved if there are enough bids close to the market.

Its like you said. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. If there isnt that yet the price is still high, this is an indication that maybe the price ought not be so high. A high price on low liquidity is not healthy. Short sellers help to keep this in check. They are useful little parasites. Like medical leeches.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
September 05, 2016, 03:04:14 PM
TA is very apt for a speculation thread.  I find it comforting when many are predicting correction.  It implies money on the sidelines.

Who is the "vulture" guy?

People on the sidelines might be the very same people pumped bitcoin up on Sunday. Monero dump can possibly be also just manipulation with excessive dumps on margin.
I do not like the fact that the margin dumpers can make money with Monero. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. Dumping should not be the way to make money - nobody benefits from it. It hurts the community as a collective when their investments lose value. Also those who dump can very well be in long position and make their money in that way, win-win situation.  Smiley
That can be achieved if there are enough bids close to the market.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
sr. member
Activity: 700
Merit: 250
September 05, 2016, 01:01:37 PM
the funny thing is: BTC @ 5 USD seemed more unreal at the time back in the days than XMR at 13 USD atm.

Haha yep. I remember going screw this im not paying 5 effing dollars for a single bitcoin. Ended up caving eventually and buying at 25. Now it's 600. Cheesy


i missed the btc train at 0.50.. 1.00...5...10...100.. Wink that train had already left once i realized what's going on.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
September 05, 2016, 12:54:41 PM
the funny thing is: BTC @ 5 USD seemed more unreal at the time back in the days than XMR at 13 USD atm.

Haha yep. I remember going screw this im not paying 5 effing dollars for a single bitcoin. Ended up caving eventually and buying at 25. Now it's 600. Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 700
Merit: 250
September 05, 2016, 12:51:05 PM
the funny thing is: BTC @ 5 USD seemed more unreal at the time back in the days than XMR at 13 USD atm.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
September 05, 2016, 12:41:23 PM
TA is very apt for a speculation thread.  I find it comforting when many are predicting correction.  It implies money on the sidelines.

Who is the "vulture" guy?
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 501
September 05, 2016, 12:33:50 PM
Wow another set of charts here to explain what we should all be doing (since everyone can see the "charts")

And 4th time the elrippo chart got quoted. I was hoping it wouldn't happen in this page  Angry Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
September 05, 2016, 12:16:59 PM
As long as nothing has happened to the fundamentals I would not sell. Just buy and hodl at any price now. The price doesn't really matter but the fact that there is demand for Moneros.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
September 05, 2016, 12:07:29 PM
I see we got some shorters in here getting REKT.

LMAO
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1164
September 05, 2016, 12:05:25 PM
Landies and Gents, please be careful with your XMR!
IF this pump follows the same shematics as the last one, i would sell my XMR now and buy back in way lower.
Just look at the similarities from the last pump, only the timeframe and volume from this august-september pump is more intense.

Last Pump


This Pump


couldn't care less... even if you bought at the top of what you call the previous pump, you still made out like a bandit right now...

and again, this is not your ordinary pump, monero has utility now... you seem to be the only one who doesn't get this... would you say that bitcoin reaching 600$ was a pump & dump? Sure, there were pumps, but all in all bitcoin is worth this much now because of utility...

let's hope the same happens with monero, good luck trading it... I won't try it for sure

best regards

Monero has enough volume now that traders will start applying traditional TA to the price. Everyone who trades uses Fibonacci levels and Elliott Wave theory to help with entries and exits. Monero has now made three impulse waves up:



Any seasoned trader would see the three impulse waves up and start thinking that it may be time for an ABC two wave correction. Usually an ABC correction goes down to the vicinity of the top of the first impulse wave in this case .01. Not always though. A 50% to 61.8% correction might be all that occurs. If price is in an extended wave 3 we could see a new ATH. The point is buying at this level carries more risk than normal. You can always wait for a down day on heavy volume to get a better price.
sr. member
Activity: 700
Merit: 250
September 05, 2016, 11:59:29 AM
i suppose the recent BTC rally was mostly triggered by XMR exits
You got that precisely backwards. The BTC rally may be fiat currency flowing into Monero via BTC


if that were the case then why did monero go down precisely at the same time that bitcoin went up?

Because folks mark in USD. They don't just market buy at funding time. They fund, and then trade on moves.

either way, something similar would be expected once zc comes out i suppose.
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