Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1119. (Read 3314330 times)

Minus one point for 'landies'  
Minus one point for 'shematics'  
Minus several points for calling market rises 'pumps'.  

Other than that your basic point 'markets go down as well as up' is valid.  

However, you fail to recognise that if you had bought in on Mar 26th (close to .004) you would now be sitting on profits of 500% and wouldn't have had to go through all the uncertainty of "when should I buy back".  

Landies and Gents, please be careful with your XMR!
IF this pump follows the same shematics as the last one, i would sell my XMR now and buy back in way lower.
Just look at the similarities from the last pump, only the timeframe and volume from this august-september pump is more intense.

Last Pump


This Pump

Yeah, there will be that new interest for sure. And even some larger money might move in. Really hard to predict where this space goes but I get the feeling some "directed money" is going to be a distraction. If that seed is at all compromised, and who is to say they can't Patriot Act their way into it, then it can be the perfect Trojan Horse for a continuation of their Surveillance State.

We won't loose any real talent (mid-term & long-term) to Z.Cash, that is pretty obvious.

Everybody with a brain, that really shares the advertised values, will be supportive and positive towards Monero.
Even, if he is traped (by being a public face) or otherwise locked-in into competing privacy-preserving coin/project/concepts/companies/solutions.

You and I might feel that way but will the rest of the market? ZCash will be the New Kid in Town and, as such, the Poloniex kids are going to love it. The market thrives on shiny new coins and ZCash will be the shiniest of them all given the money and backing it has.

I admit that I'm worried it will affect Monero's recent rise.

Heavily premined coin plus the fact you need to trust them 100% to have destroyed the initialization seed made me decide to not buy Zerocoin at all. Even though purely technical it's math is superior to Monero. But with Moneoro I don't need to trust anyone (let alone untrustworthy people!)

Yes,  I completely agree with those thoughts.  There is something of a disconnect as if you are being sold something illicit by a bunch of people who work in the criminal justice system. 

What seems so disappointing is that so many* of the younger folks here seem ready to follow this rather than XMR.

*completely anecdotal judgement based on a small and unscientific sample

I just don't trust them. A "legitimate" anonymous cash, in the end, I just don't think will be anonymous. You can be sure the agencies are following them closely, if not involved (though I do believe the source will be made public?) I just think they must have been compromised along the way - we are talking enslavement, I mean money here.

I'm sure a lot of work is going into here: https://z.cash/blog/auditing-zcash.html

In the beginning I thought alts are secondary to Bitcoin, so can only serve niches that entitle them to at max a few % of marketcap. Bitcoin used to be between 90-95% of total crypto marketcap then.

Some time after I had bought into Monero, I realised that it does everything that Bitcoin does, but better (by being anonymous by design). This lead me to think that normal innovation adoption rules apply, and even if Commodore 64 has 100% of the markets at some point, it can be replaced by IBM PC, or NES, or both, subsequently. For this stage, I even formulated the wealth preservation theorem that stated "if any of the alts reaches 20% of BTC marketcap for the reason that it is better than BTC, this will cause 2-5% of BTC wealth to move to that alt for wealth preservation/hedging, which will snowball the alt to become 80% instead of 20% (hence trump BTC in market cap).

Now I am unsure if such a mechanism would actually take place, due to so much inertia that has been accumulated in the system. So I am leaning towards peaceful coexistence, which allows multiple coins to live and have higher and lower market caps. The history shows this is not a winner-takes-it-all market, even if I had thought so. The opposite is true: small things grow and die, BTC stays. But BTC does not account for 90-95% of the market cap any more, as the small things have grown faster.

Yes, there is still a scenario that some coin will take over Bitcoin, and the only coin that has realistic chance to do it is Monero. This will likely require a major flaw in Bitcoin first, but it is already suffering from a death by thousand cuts, if we are honest and clear-sighted.

To be x10 from 20 days ago XMR should be 0.037 right now.  Many here would agree on your prediction.


Let me add a bit more here. Monero price gained x10 in about less then 3 months. That was right before Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin halving suppressed price of all altcoins so as Monero.  Even I had few dark thoughts to buy BTC. If BTC would ATH i would buy back Monero soon after and wait for Monero growth. But BTC did not ATH and that would be really bad decision if I would do it.
Another reason why all alts grow last 3 months was Ethereum debacle. Many thought ETH will replace BTC. Altho is quite different technology, but it seems people just dont care about that. After ETC, those that saw only ETH started looking around. Not only in Monero but also in Monero. All alts at least doubled prices in last months.


Withouth BTC halving price would be way higher in July. And today we would not see such jumps.

I've just been looking at the zcash site -- they all seem like a very shiny bunch, about as far removed from the ideals of the early BTCers as you could imagine.  My first impression was...the Apple of crypto and it makes me wonder why such a bunch would be interested in privacy.  They seem quite forthright that they are in it for the wealth.

But I suspect a lot of funds will flow from the PnDpers who will see a ground floor opportunity.

Can your argument really be based on a 20 day period though? What about the larger period. Monero has been around a while, one can say it slipped through the cracks for most of that time. And now Big Money, apparently, has gotten involved. We know as fact that Roger Ver is, so probably some people who are either cohorts or of like stature, financially.

So, are you also going to argue for Monero being undervalued the years prior, or does your argument just qualify for the period you don't like?

Seems like you picked a period you don't like and ignored the larger one that is just as meaningful. (Oh, and the tech is NICE  )

Xmr needs to get onto more exchanges before worrying about btc.

Why does it have to be a sidechain causing more problems and headaches? Why not make use of bitsquare and make that the layer in between BTC and XMR direct transfers? Would that make a safer solution?

Roger Ver is an investor in zcash: https://z.cash/team.html

Why not? What does the magnitude of price increase have anything to do with the growth being "organic?"

While you're at it, please define what you think "organic growth" even is. To me, it's an increase in demand, which is exactly what we're seeing here.

What potential conflict of interest were you referring to? What do you believe to be Roger Ver's true motive? Do you believe he made a substantial investment in Monero, which was more than in any other altcoin?

In case anyone missed it (@deBruyne originally posted this) https://www.litebit.eu/ has opened up an XMR/EU market on their exchange.

1XMR currently worth €13.0094

Hey, you asked a question and I spent time providing a number of reasons why you should actually invest and this isn't a PnD coin.  You chose to ignore that post.

I'm not sure what your position is now, you seem to vacillate between so many.

Nevertheless, in the time between you calling the XMR price ludicrous and my writing this post it has gone up about 80cents.

BTC had a much more difficult journey to get to its current price. Converting from dollars wasn't straightforward. With the learning curve, bank transfer delays, AML, KYC and general grief meant buyers really needed to WANT them coins. In 2016, the principal vehicle to buy XMR is Bitcoin. As such, the customers are much more crypto savvy and can transfer large amounts of Bitcoin to an exchange easily and instantly.

XMR has always been a great currency - but only now has it become used as one. As such, the speculation phase initated by the visionary believers is being replaced by genuine asset value and the 'ludicrous' pricing is just a reflection of that.

As I'm sure most of the Bitcoiners from 2011 would agree, XMR is Bitcoin 2.0 and at $15 is very very cheap! Day trading may be risking your long term wealth but a small buy and hold strategy is better than buying a lottery ticket!