[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1122.

Anon136

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Quote from: Anon136 on September 04, 2016, 04:00:55 PM

Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2016, 01:52:13 PM

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

I'm certainly not going to say it will. But I will say there is a rational reason to expect that it might.

Bitcoin was supposed to be digital e-cash. Cash has to be fungible. Monero is the best fungible digital e-cash contender out there right now. The day people start to worry about whether the funds they are being paid in are tainted. They start to feel that sense of creeping dread that maybe that 20 grand they just accepted as payment for their car could be worthless. That is the day they switch to XMR in mass. Unless bitcoin manages to overcome the politics that are burdening it and find a solution to this problem. Which they might.

Won't confidential transaction solve the problem of fungibility of bitcoins?

Right now that proposal is for a soft fork and it is essentially a hack. Consequently confidential transactions will consume far too many resources to be practical. A hard fork could solve this. But then there's that politics I mentioned. A hard fork is extremely political when it comes to bitcoin.

*edit* also what smooth said. thanks smooth.

smooth

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Quote from: Anon136 on September 04, 2016, 04:00:55 PM

Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2016, 01:52:13 PM

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

I'm certainly not going to say it will. But I will say there is a rational reason to expect that it might.

Bitcoin was supposed to be digital e-cash. Cash has to be fungible. Monero is the best fungible digital e-cash contender out there right now. The day people start to worry about whether the funds they are being paid in are tainted. They start to feel that sense of creeping dread that maybe that 20 grand they just accepted as payment for their car could be worthless. That is the day they switch to XMR in mass. Unless bitcoin manages to overcome the politics that are burdening it and find a solution to this problem. Which they might.

Won't confidential transaction solve the problem of fungibility of bitcoins?

No unlinkability and untracability. It improves privacy at the individual transaction level if and when it is ever deployed, but coin histories, tracking, and taint remain.

To put it another way, Monero is adding CT to what we already have (with RingCT), we are not replacing what we already have with CT. That would be a step backward.

Anon136

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Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2016, 01:52:13 PM

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

I'm certainly not going to say it will. But I will say there is a rational reason to expect that it might.

Bitcoin was supposed to be digital e-cash. Cash has to be fungible. So bitcoin has failed to meet that expectation. It is a digital asset. It is not digital cash. Monero is the best fungible digital e-cash contender out there right now. The day people start to worry about whether the funds they are being paid in are tainted. The day they start start to feel that sense of creeping dread that maybe that 20 grand they just accepted as payment for their car could be worthless. That is the day they switch to XMR in mass. Unless bitcoin manages to overcome the politics that are burdening it and find a solution to this problem. Which it might.

BldSwtTrs

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Quote from: aminorex on September 04, 2016, 02:26:24 PM

Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2016, 01:52:13 PM

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

Either XMR fails catastrophically, or it surpasses BTC by a large margin: The use-cases and scalability of XMR cover a much wider range than BTC; most actors suffer for having their private financial details published indiscriminately.

It is only the limitations of bounded rationality and human linear thinking which assign intermediate outcomes the bulk of the probability mass. The underlying fundamentals push the actual mass out to the tails.

Aminorex thank you for your inputs, they are very valuable, I always consider with attention what you say.

Regarding the possibility XMR can surpass BTC, don't you think the superior network effect (security, marketability, brand recognition) of BTC will prevent that? It's not always the best which wins.

Also isn't monero scability worse than BTC (ie. more data per transaction to process)? (I know Monero has an adaptative blocksize but that doesn't solve the centralization of nodes problem).

aminorex

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Quote from: nioc on September 04, 2016, 06:00:48 AM

... with this I have doubled my holdings.

Just keep doubling.

aminorex

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Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2016, 02:36:57 PM

Joe Six-Pack

Joe does not set the price. This is not a unit-per-head market like iPhones. The LBMA sets the price of gold, not Indian wedding planners. The bulk transactors, the whales, will determine the price of Monero... up until the point where it has a local currency monopoly, dominant reserve status, and the standard of accounting. Inside of a local currency monopoly, the size of the economy and the money supply will determine the value. Joe just eats what is put in front of him.

aminorex

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Quote from: Anon136 on September 04, 2016, 01:17:20 PM

Quote from: aminorex on September 04, 2016, 12:58:57 PM

Quote from: coinits on September 04, 2016, 12:42:06 PM

You must factor in that some of the larger BTC Whales are XMR Whales too.

And for those who are not, the hour is getting late. Soon it will not be possible to become a Monero whale. The club doors are already beginning to swing shut.

Whats a whale to aminorex? In the long term not just today.

If you want to enter or leave the liquidity pool with more than 5% of the daily churn, you're going to make a whale-sized wave of one sort or another. In BTC today that is ~10k. So, in the 2-3 year span beyond which I do not like to make quantitative predictions, that would seem a good benchmark for the Monero whale. I don't think XMRBTC parity will happen by then, but close-ish, maybe half. And the crypto market volume will be roughly evenly divided.

Who might reasonably want to move $5mm in a single day? Someone buying a nice retirement villa, or investing in private equity -- or a company funding off-shore operations or making a capital equipment purchase. Probably no less than 20mm usd net worth...more like 100mm.

explorer

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Quote from: nioc on September 04, 2016, 06:00:48 AM

About miners dumping. The current daily emission is a bit over 7700/day. Almost every 15 min candle is way above that. During this last dump there was a 15min red candle of just under 200K and during the rise before it there were 2 green candles of >200K. Ofc having a higher % of mined coins being sold quickly will have some affect but I just don't think it's all that much. The other way to look at it is how many new coins/day does the market want? Does the addition of maybe 2K/day to be sold make much of a difference in the market now?

I started mining again with my super computer about 6 weeks ago because I smelled something in the air. At 35H/s I currently own 0.0001% of the network HR and have accrued 0.3 Monero. Doesn't sound like much but with this I have doubled my holdings.

That's nothing on my mining operation. I'm pulling a steady 8 H/s, with sometimes spikes up into the teens! So far it hasn't returned anything, and that's after months and months. I think it's just too powerful, and the blocks I mine just vaporize or something.

Current network rate of 37.94 MH/s OMFG. its about time.

Globb0

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Free spirit

Quantum computing is marching on too. Its all technology based so some truly significant change in technology standards could definitely also have an unknown effect.

smooth

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Quote from: Dafar on September 04, 2016, 11:19:48 AM

Bitcoin is not going anywhere man. In terms of network effect ...see below... it trumps all other alts

Yes

Quote

...from above... and security

I dispute this, or at least dispute the magnitude of leadership at a minimum (it may still be more secure than any alt, but it just very hard to assess). Highly centralized mining isn't all that secure. Hash rate (i.e. energy burn) doesn't tell the whole story.

infofront

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Quote from: aminorex on September 04, 2016, 02:26:24 PM

Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2016, 01:52:13 PM

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

Either XMR fails catastrophically, or it surpasses BTC by a large margin: The use-cases and scalability of XMR cover a much wider range than BTC; most actors suffer for having their private financial details published indiscriminately.

It is only the limitations of bounded rationality and human linear thinking which assign intermediate outcomes the bulk of the probability mass. The underlying fundamentals push the actual mass out to the tails.

I can see a future where Joe Six-Pack, who doesn't know or care much about the benefits of anonymity, uses BTC. Meanwhile, his twenty-something son, who lives in the basement, is buying LSD and MDMA with XMR.

Now, if the taxman starts coming after Joe Six-Pack and his BTC wealth, that significantly changes things.

The benefits of XMR must be powerful enough and known well enough to be able to overcome BTC's first mover advantage and blockchain add-on functionality for it to be used preferentially in licit transactions.

birr

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Quote from: aminorex on September 04, 2016, 02:26:24 PM

bounded rationality and human linear thinking... assign intermediate outcomes

I hate when that happens. Wink

aminorex

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Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2016, 01:52:13 PM

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

Either XMR fails catastrophically, or it surpasses BTC by a large margin: The use-cases and scalability of XMR cover a much wider range than BTC; most actors suffer for having their private financial details published indiscriminately.

It is only the limitations of bounded rationality and human linear thinking which assign intermediate outcomes the bulk of the probability mass. The underlying fundamentals push the actual mass out to the tails.

cryptimus prime

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Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2016, 01:52:13 PM

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

Basically LTC is a useless BTC-clone. It does not really offer anything special.

XMR brings a whole new dimension to the broader community, the first real digital form of cash ever made. Although I am following tis project for a while I needed a lot time to realize the implications fully.
This is just the beginning.

cAPSLOCK

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Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2016, 01:52:13 PM

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

I generally agree with you. I have said from the beginning that it could be useful to have both a transparent blockchain and this sort of obscured blockchain running side-by-side. Yes there are ways that either coin could fill the shoes of the other but I don't think that is going to happen. I think Monero will be used primarily for wealth storage and private transactions and Bitcoin will be used primarily for transparent transactions and as an open blockchain. One difference between Monero and Litecoin though. Monero is not designed to be cheap. So I could see Moneros top price being a much greater fraction of bitcoin's price and litecoin could ever be. If I'm drunk enough I can even imagine scenarios in which Monero is more valuable than Bitcoin per unit . In this case it wouldn't be Bitcoin silver it would be Bitcoins Platinum. But as to it replacing Bitcoin? There's a lot of reasons that that seems silly to me.

infofront

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I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

cAPSLOCK

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Quote from: bitebits on September 04, 2016, 10:19:40 AM

Question to the active traders on Poloniex: is there an option to get notified when your order has been filled? I would like to prevent keeping my XMR and XBT on the exchange longer than strictly required. But don't like to manually check each day either.

Can't find the option on Poloniex, but maybe there is an external website that notifies you when a certain exchange rate is hit?

For Android devices there is the Monero status app.

cAPSLOCK

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Quote from: volyova on September 04, 2016, 10:13:31 AM

um...it's just a pump and dump.

I would agree that you are currently arguing with bulls that are exuberant in their irrationality, but about that statement I would say you are absolutely dead wrong which is why we have a coin with this amount of volume right now.

Could it be being pumped - yes.

Will it ever be dumped - yes.

But it is not just a pump and dump. You either don't recognize that, or you have an agenda against it. Which is it?

Anon136

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Quote from: aminorex on September 04, 2016, 12:58:57 PM

Quote from: coinits on September 04, 2016, 12:42:06 PM

You must factor in that some of the larger BTC Whales are XMR Whales too.

And for those who are not, the hour is getting late. Soon it will not be possible to become a Monero whale. The club doors are already beginning to swing shut.

Whats a whale to aminorex? In the long term not just today.

aminorex

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Quote from: coinits on September 04, 2016, 12:42:06 PM

You must factor in that some of the larger BTC Whales are XMR Whales too.

And for those who are not, the hour is getting late. Soon it will not be possible to become a Monero whale. The club doors are already beginning to swing shut.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1122. (Read 3314330 times)