Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1167. (Read 3314330 times)

Thank you for giving a nice entry point to new bagholders.
My coins may never be for sale (might be buying gold directly when the price rises).
My portfolio is in well position. If bitcoin goes to 10 000 + usd I have enough of btc, if Monero goes to 1000+ usd, I have also Moneros. If both btc and xmr fails to grow, I still have my rental units + 2 jobs I am satisfied with and quite nice monthly surplus income.
Selling Moneros just causes more taxes to pay so better just hold and sell in a stingy manner if ever.

I might actually just buy some odd XMR for the sake of support (not to grow my stash).

I think the current level of 0.012-0.013 is excellent accumulation zone still. There is plenty of room to grow, only 6 million coins will be mined before minimum block reward will hit (when the minimum block reward hits Monero has a decent chance to become worth of 100 000 - 1000 000 millions of dollars). So selling now is like giving free money to the new upper class.  

We need to appreciate everybody who decide to sell now before the DNM will start sucking Moneros from markets. Thank you, sellers!

It happened during night un Europe. I went to sleep at ~0.0085,  breakout was annouced but unconfirmed. So i moved my orders into 0.0099-0.0120 (2% of my stash)
When i woke up, price was above 0.0120  and 6 new pages on this thread.
How do i feel this morning? I'm very fine 
I'm unable to buy back but no matter, it's a nice profit (and it's important to take profit when it's possible) and the  remaining 98% of my stash is healty as never.

The sun is shinning!

Just wait and see, i did say in December not tomorrow 

Still have these out.. crazy.

Back to 1 Dollar?

I think you meant Shapeshift (shapeshift.io) or CoinCut (http://blog.coincut.com/2016/08/17/buy-dash-ethereum-monero-gbp-wallets/).

Wow, I didn't check the exchange for a few days and the price has rocketed. Now I'm pretty annoyed that I pushed most of my mining capaciry towards BCN instead of XMR, I still have a few XMR though.

What happened to waiting until the price drops to the .004s?

Still nearly 5000 btc bids.  Not so steep as it was earlier, but impressive. 
I have to sleep some time, I suppose now is good, while there is a lull in the excitement.  Only 10K XMR per minute volume.   

i saw so much coins go up and down. see etc at 0.005 and now 0.0025! maybe it will be the same with xmr it will fall down but it will stabilisize and go slowly up

Well, then do not buy and wait until the price drops down to 0,008x 

last squeeze i sold 30000 xmr
now i feel like an idiot to rebuy at 0.0129 with so much risk of the price sliding down  

What's a SWAG?

I think it is just gonna range trade for a while.  The range is wider now because everyone is on edge, but it will vol-squeeze into another leg up eventually. Just guessing, yo.

I had might as well short some DASH with those BTC.  No way my 0118 low-ball bid is gonna fill with that 0123 wall there.

I am sufficiently sleep deprived so that anything I say is pretty questionable and only semi-coherent.

That said, I was thinking: If DNMs are 3bn and have a velocity of 12, the whole market could be supplied by 62mm of market cap.  Supposing 1/4 of the XMR outstanding actually floats, the whole dnm economy would run on a 246mm market cap, so the exchange is clearly as though XMR is going to denominate more than a third of DNMs, within a negligible discounting period.  That seems way optimistic to me.  Either my float or velocity factors are way off, or a large part of the marketcap is froth.  Not that it can't get frothier.  It certainly can, and I think it will.  In 2013 the same estimate would have priced BTC on the basis of a DNM economy 1/3 as large, yet we know that SR drove it to $1bn market cap, about 12x what similar multipliers would have implied.  So 10% of AB would mean 24.6mm * 12 = 295mm marketcap for XMR, or about $25/XMR.

A third SWAG, also coinciding with the other two SWAGS.  

I think the probabilistic logic of confounding SWAGs is something like the inverse of the product of the inverses.  So suppose I assign each SWAG a 10% probability.  p = 1-(1-.10)^3 = .27

So there's about a 1 in 4 chance that XMR will trade at $25 this year, because magic.  Need...more...SWAGS...

OK looks like we're done here.  All Aboard!

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by momentum. Whats relevant are future market orders and liquidity. The order book will give a loose approximation of that but it wont account for the effect that changes in market conditions will have on holders who have not yet placed orders but will.

But yea if you assume for the sake of actually having data to work with that the orderbook contains all of the data you need. Than you could make a pretty simple function. Say you want to move the price 10%. How much liquidity is there on the sell side between current price and 10% higher? Take that bitcoin amount and put that on the left side of your ratio. Now take the total change in market capitalization and put that on the right side. That would be a rough approximation of the sort of ratio you were looking for I think. The ~1:10 you were talking about.  

I suspect you probably already knew all of that though and we were just talking past each other a little bit

It's pretty hard to believe, but 100k of XMR just got offered.

These alt-coin speculators have been burned and scammed so many times, they are functionally insane.  Like an abused child adopted by a caring family, they just can't cope with the concept of real value.

Well, it had to happen.  We need to stabilize around 012 for a bit before we can take another leg up, otherwise Rangedriver will have underestimated.  And that could never happen, as we know.

So call me an addict, but I think I'll bid a few k at 1180ksat, in case it dips a bit.

It takes both momentum and inverse liquidity to do it.  A monotonic function of momentum / liquidity.  Another way to frame it:  A monotonic function of in-range order book imbalance.

Probably liquidity.