[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1206.

Hueristic

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Activity: 3836

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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: DaveyJones on August 20, 2016, 07:08:24 PM

...
Dude why don´t you just come up into the IRC and ask the questions directly, instead of hoping fluffy is tripping over them here. And if he is not there maybe someone else is capable of answering you

Tripping over them? What? We were in the middle of a conversation and I waited a week for him to answer before I even bumped it. XMR started here and it's where I go to talk about it. And apparently no-one else wanted to address the issue.

Stop acting like i kicked your dog, someone asked a question and I answered honestly. That is all I have done the years I have been posting here. I also prefer to have my questions answered in the main thread as it is a good repository I can search. I hate keeping logs.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

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Sine secretum non libertas

Maybe the carping and bickering is more appropriate to the Monero Improvement thread.

As regards speculation as to failure scenarios, the hardfork heartbeat implies that only problems which are not anticipated in time to be fixed by a hardfork can become existential threats.
In cases of fire the core have proven themselves by highly capable, responsive and proactive engagement in past scenarios.

The likelihood of stagnation seems pretty low, given the persistent improvement pattern and ongoing expansion of high-quality mindshare. Certainly stagnation is always a possibility, in which case new hands would most likely take up the work, and bring the period of stagnation to an end, but even that soft failure mode ( really just a delay, and a degree of lost opportunity) seems less than probable, on the face of things.

I do wish smooth would show up more often here. It is his thread and could benefit from his occasional attention. But it's not like smooth was ever a big technical contributor, so I don't see his distraction as an indication of stagnation, but rather simply that his other interests make him a weaker core member than he could have been.

DaveyJones

hero member

Activity: 768

Merit: 505

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 06:21:24 PM

Quote from: Dotto on August 20, 2016, 06:04:18 PM

You should continue... we are not cryptographers. Are you saying that they have a backdoor to XMR?. Is this curve reemplazable in a common hard fork?

If by reemplazable you meant replaceable as I think you did then of course, anything can be changed with a hard fork.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 05:40:41 PM

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

Quote

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

you are underestimating the amount of effort to build something like Cryptonote, it blows Zcash away, the darknet has spoken and its going with Monero.

about the curve, looks like you missed these commits.

A proposal to change to one of edwards twisted curves? Has this been voted on? Set for a hard fork date? Ignored? Left to be implemented in a competing project? Which really brings up other questions along the lines of the ones I had that fluffy stopped answering.

Dude why don´t you just come up into the IRC and ask the questions directly, instead of hoping fluffy is tripping over them here. And if he is not there maybe someone else is capable of answering you

DaveyJones

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Activity: 768

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Implementation complete --> https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/4yik6w/finally_banned_by_circle_after_1_year/d6pl5ef

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: Dotto on August 20, 2016, 06:04:18 PM

You should continue... we are not cryptographers. Are you saying that they have a backdoor to XMR?. Is this curve reemplazable in a common hard fork?

If by reemplazable you meant replaceable as I think you did then of course, anything can be changed with a hard fork.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 05:40:41 PM

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

Quote

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

you are underestimating the amount of effort to build something like Cryptonote, it blows Zcash away, the darknet has spoken and its going with Monero.

about the curve, looks like you missed these commits.

A proposal to change to one of edwards twisted curves? Has this been voted on? Set for a hard fork date? Ignored? Left to be implemented in a competing project? Which really brings up other questions along the lines of the ones I had that fluffy stopped answering.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 05:40:41 PM

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

Quote

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

When did you become bearish?

I have always just been honest.

Dotto

legendary

Activity: 981

Merit: 1005

No maps for these territories

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 05:40:41 PM

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

Quote

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

You should continue... we are not cryptographers. Are you saying that they have a backdoor to XMR?. Is this curve reemplazable in a common hard fork?

Dotto

legendary

Activity: 981

Merit: 1005

No maps for these territories

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 05:00:24 PM

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

Probably the most likely scenario would be better technology replacing XMR, or simply something like zcash that is better marketed and becomes mass adopted while XMR stagnates into nothing.

At the moment Zcash is mostly hot air with some serious design flaws.

The problem is the XMR community boiling in bullishness. The fall could be near

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

Quote

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

Febo

legendary

Activity: 2744

Merit: 1288

Quote from: birr on August 20, 2016, 05:16:58 PM

The monero network is still small and weak enough that it's vulnerable to an attack by the state, is it not?
It would cost the U.S. government peanuts to attack monero and crush it.

Do you think they dont have better work to do? Like save the white whales or polar bears or something.

birr

hero member

Activity: 870

Merit: 585

The monero network is still small and weak enough that it's vulnerable to an attack by the state, is it not?
It would cost the U.S. government peanuts to attack monero and crush it.

TheKoziTwo

legendary

Activity: 1552

Merit: 1047

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

Probably the most likely scenario would be better technology replacing XMR, or simply something like zcash that is better marketed and becomes mass adopted while XMR stagnates into nothing.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

Probabilities Grin

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

TheKoziTwo

legendary

Activity: 1552

Merit: 1047

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on August 20, 2016, 02:31:49 PM

Do you think Monero will rise to 1000 usd/xmr? How realistic you guys see it reaching 1000 usd (assuming btc is more or less the same as today)?

Zero chance. Don't be greedy.

I am a thorough-going Bayesian, so I think the posterior is conditioned on the prior. My priors favor a scenario in which $25 XMR is the central estimate for 2018 average. Past 2018 there are too many conditional factors of unknown distribution to provide credible intervals for inference, so I prefer not to make estimates past that point, but if a $25 average, or higher, were realized in 2018, then it would seem less unlikely than you suggest. Until then, I can't or won't say.

MrGood

full member

Activity: 125

Merit: 100

Chief Technology Officer, NYC

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 03:14:28 PM

Crossposted:

I compiled and checked out the GUI and I gotta say I'm really disappointed. It's nothing more than another wrapper. One more vector of attack not plugged. This GUI is no better than the 3rd party ones.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.15986646

What do you want it to do? Make you a sandwich?

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Crossposted:

I compiled and checked out the GUI and I gotta say I'm really disappointed. It's nothing more than another wrapper. One more vector of attack not plugged. This GUI is no better than the 3rd party ones.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.15986646

pa

hero member

Activity: 528

Merit: 501

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on August 20, 2016, 02:31:49 PM

Do you think Monero will rise to 1000 usd/xmr? How realistic you guys see it reaching 1000 usd (assuming btc is more or less the same as today)?

I think it has more chances than bitcoin going to 100k, they sure are small but its not zero, the fundamentals are just too strong... decentralized true electronic cash for the first time in history.

I think we'll see both BTCUSD >$100k and XMRUSD >$1k by 2027. Call me an optimist.

novag

hero member

Activity: 687

Merit: 500

novag

Probable price Monero possible within 0.015-0.02

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1206. (Read 3314325 times)