[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1205.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 05:40:41 PM

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl.

This is kind of an insult to everyone working on Monero currently. I'd argue that with the RingCT development, 0MQ development, GUI development, the conventional adding of features, and fixing bugs, the development is way more active than last summer.

DaveyJones

hero member

Activity: 768

Merit: 505

Quote from: smoothie on August 21, 2016, 01:09:31 AM

What I am anticipating (which no one can 100% accurately predict) is when will there be the first big XMR theft or hack. This could mean that Poloniex or another exchange or marketplace gets hacked (not saying they will, but it has a > 0% chance of happening).

That could be an interesting precedent in how the economy/law enforcement etc react to such a theft/hack.

Up until now there hasn't been "news-worthy" hacks/thefts of XMR...yet.

I suspect it will happen sooner or later and price may or may not take a dump. From past experience all hacks are followed with price dumps.

Probably after monero has a bull run will it be worth a hacker stealing some XMR.

All just speculation for now...

Wasn´t Mintpal a relative big thing? Where Moneroj were safe because the wallet design was different to BTC and its clones?

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

What I am anticipating (which no one can 100% accurately predict) is when will there be the first big XMR theft or hack. This could mean that Poloniex or another exchange or marketplace gets hacked (not saying they will, but it has a > 0% chance of happening).

That could be an interesting precedent in how the economy/law enforcement etc react to such a theft/hack.

Up until now there hasn't been "news-worthy" hacks/thefts of XMR...yet.

I suspect it will happen sooner or later and price may or may not take a dump. From past experience all hacks are followed with price dumps.

Probably after monero has a bull run will it be worth a hacker stealing some XMR.

All just speculation for now...

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 07:20:38 PM

Quote from: DaveyJones on August 20, 2016, 07:08:24 PM

...
Dude why don´t you just come up into the IRC and ask the questions directly, instead of hoping fluffy is tripping over them here. And if he is not there maybe someone else is capable of answering you

Tripping over them? What? We were in the middle of a conversation and I waited a week for him to answer before I even bumped it. XMR started here and it's where I go to talk about it. And apparently no-one else wanted to address the issue.

Stop acting like i kicked your dog, someone asked a question and I answered honestly. That is all I have done the years I have been posting here. I also prefer to have my questions answered in the main thread as it is a good repository I can search. I hate keeping logs.

I'm fairly certain if you were willing to go out of your way to get the answers to questions you have, you would already have answers. There are other means of communicating than this forum.

farfiman

legendary

Activity: 1449

Merit: 1001

Quote from: smooth on August 20, 2016, 11:20:22 PM

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

Failure to continue to gain use adoption and investor demand, resulting in a terminal decline as participants bleed away to pursue solutions elsewhere. I don't see that happening at all right now, but that is the hypothetical.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on August 20, 2016, 02:31:49 PM

Do you think Monero will rise to 1000 usd/xmr? How realistic you guys see it reaching 1000 usd (assuming btc is more or less the same as today)?

Zero chance. Don't be greedy.

I would say low but zero chance is also an absurd statement. 1000 USD/XMR would not even be a very high market cap by the standards of global assets. Absent failure, 1000 USD/XMR is likely.

@Heuristic there are no significant known or reasonably suspected problems with Curve25519. I have no idea where you are getting that from.

He said based on assumption BTC at same level as today. Makes a big difference.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: smooth on August 20, 2016, 11:20:22 PM

...

@Heuristic there are no significant known or reasonably suspected problems with Curve25519. I have no idea where you are getting that from.

I read it from a guy. So why is Shen recommending ed's Twisted? All Crypto eventually gets broken, we all know this. The question is what are the contingency plans.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

Failure to continue to gain use adoption and investor demand, resulting in a terminal decline as participants bleed away to pursue solutions elsewhere. I don't see that happening at all right now, but that is the hypothetical.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on August 20, 2016, 02:31:49 PM

Do you think Monero will rise to 1000 usd/xmr? How realistic you guys see it reaching 1000 usd (assuming btc is more or less the same as today)?

Zero chance. Don't be greedy.

I would say low but zero chance is also an absurd statement. 1000 USD/XMR would not even be a very high market cap by the standards of global assets. Absent failure, 1000 USD/XMR is likely.

@Heuristic there are no significant known or reasonably suspected problems with Curve25519. I have no idea where you are getting that from.

birr

hero member

Activity: 870

Merit: 585

Quote from: Febo on August 20, 2016, 05:30:34 PM

Quote from: birr on August 20, 2016, 05:16:58 PM

The monero network is still small and weak enough that it's vulnerable to an attack by the state, is it not?
It would cost the U.S. government peanuts to attack monero and crush it.

Do you think they dont have better work to do? Like save the white whales or polar bears or something.

[irony]
Of course! The government isn't going to fuck your shit up.
They never do that.
[/irony]

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: eizh on August 20, 2016, 10:28:35 PM

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 05:40:41 PM

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

Quote

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

This is exactly backwards. Schneier was referring to the constants of the NIST curves. Curve25519 is not a NIST curve, which is precisely why it's been very popular among cryptographers in recent years.

From what I understand it has to do with the selection of common constants but I'm not going to research it again.

Quote

Popularity

Curve25519 was first released by Daniel J. Bernstein in 2005,[7] but interest increased considerably after 2013 when it was discovered that the NSA had implemented a backdoor into Dual EC DRBG. While not directly related,[8] suspicious aspects of the NIST's P curve constants[9] led to concerns[10] that the NSA had chosen values that gave them an advantage in factoring[11] public keys.[12]

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier, The NSA Is Breaking Most Encryption on the Internet (2013)

Since then, Curve25519 has become the de facto alternative to P-256, and is used in a wide variety of applications.[13] In 2014 OpenSSH[14] defaults to Curve25519-based ECDH.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curve25519

eizh

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 05:40:41 PM

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

Quote

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

This is exactly backwards. Schneier was referring to the constants of the NIST curves. Curve25519 is not a NIST curve, which is precisely why it's been very popular among cryptographers in recent years.

Anon136

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1217

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Dotto on August 20, 2016, 06:04:18 PM

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 05:40:41 PM

Quote from: aminorex on August 20, 2016, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on August 20, 2016, 04:47:56 PM

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

Quote

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

You should continue... we are not cryptographers. Are you saying that they have a backdoor to XMR?. Is this curve reemplazable in a common hard fork?

Is there any evidence for this besides Schnier's conjecture? There are other possible motivations for the the NSA trying to diminish ECC, see this comment https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2015/10/why_is_the_nsa_.html#c6709393

In his defense, I think the burden of proof has to rest on those who say its safe not those who say it isn't. "My ECC is safe" is the relevant positive assertion.

owlcatz

legendary

Activity: 3570

Merit: 1959

Quote from: BitcoinNewsMagazine on August 20, 2016, 09:04:40 PM

Is it just a coincidence that XMR broke through 430 the week after the SIGAINT announcement?

No.

BitcoinNewsMagazine

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1164

Is it just a coincidence that XMR broke through 430 the week after the SIGAINT announcement?

nioc

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1008

I would if I could but I can't don't you know Tongue

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: nioc on August 20, 2016, 08:26:20 PM

OK couldn't help myself. Just bought at 420. Even though I have no use for that number or it's relations.

420? what are you smoking! Tongue

nioc

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1008

OK couldn't help myself. Just bought at 420. Even though I have no use for that number or it's relations.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

I'm sorry forgot this is supposed to be XMR Pump thread.

/stops being dramatic :rolleyes:

DaveyJones

hero member

Activity: 768

Merit: 505

Quote from: phishead on August 20, 2016, 07:26:10 PM

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 07:20:38 PM

Quote from: DaveyJones on August 20, 2016, 07:08:24 PM

...
Dude why don´t you just come up into the IRC and ask the questions directly, instead of hoping fluffy is tripping over them here. And if he is not there maybe someone else is capable of answering you

Tripping over them? What? We were in the middle of a conversation and I waited a week for him to answer before I even bumped it. XMR started here and it's where I go to talk about it. And apparently no-one else wanted to address the issue.

Stop acting like i kicked your dog, someone asked a question and I answered honestly. That is all I have done the years I have been posting here. I also prefer to have my questions answered in the main thread as it is a good repository I can search. I hate keeping logs.

The only thing he is trying to say is if you honestly wanted to get in contact with fluffypony to answer a question, you are more likely to get his attention there since he doesn't spend that much time on bitcointalk. ... stop being so dramatic.

phishead got it. It is not the first time you mentioned that he did not answer you question and that you were waiting... that is why i said if it urges you, IRC may help you to get your answer.
Besides as it is/are technical questions, wouldn´t they suit for http://monero.stackexchange.com/ ? So anyone who got the same question as you could possibly find an answer instead digging through one of the bigest altcoin threads.

Blazin8888

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: DaveyJones on August 20, 2016, 07:06:58 PM

Implementation complete --> https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/4yik6w/finally_banned_by_circle_after_1_year/d6pl5ef

wonder if AlphaBay will follow...that will be the big news IMO, also a confirmation of slap in the face to DASH community. - DNM depict what will be adopted as ANON currency. - users who need it more than anyone.

If this currency is truly private....I may truly have stumbled upon "Kryptonite" - pun intended Wink

phishead

hero member

Activity: 1874

Merit: 840

Keep what's important, and know who's your friend

Quote from: Hueristic on August 20, 2016, 07:20:38 PM

Quote from: DaveyJones on August 20, 2016, 07:08:24 PM

...
Dude why don´t you just come up into the IRC and ask the questions directly, instead of hoping fluffy is tripping over them here. And if he is not there maybe someone else is capable of answering you

Tripping over them? What? We were in the middle of a conversation and I waited a week for him to answer before I even bumped it. XMR started here and it's where I go to talk about it. And apparently no-one else wanted to address the issue.

Stop acting like i kicked your dog, someone asked a question and I answered honestly. That is all I have done the years I have been posting here. I also prefer to have my questions answered in the main thread as it is a good repository I can search. I hate keeping logs.

The only thing he is trying to say is if you honestly wanted to get in contact with fluffypony to answer a question, you are more likely to get his attention there since he doesn't spend that much time on bitcointalk. ... stop being so dramatic.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1205. (Read 3314325 times)