Author

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1204. (Read 3314325 times)

sr. member
Activity: 408
Merit: 261
August 21, 2016, 12:38:35 PM
How much XMR is available to buy across all exchanges?

- what would happen if someone dropped - 500 btc / 600 btc buy on POLO?  (fat fingered it into XMR?) - how high would price go /crash back

Looks to me like 0.0055 right now
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
August 21, 2016, 12:36:28 PM
How much XMR is available to buy across all exchanges?

- what would happen if someone dropped - 500 btc / 600 btc buy on POLO?  (fat fingered it into XMR?) - how high would price go /crash back
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
August 21, 2016, 12:25:51 PM
Alphabay/Oasis is like the perfect, organic PR campaign we were discussing a few pages ago, descending from heavens, packet and ready to go.

It just blows out of the water Amanda B Johnson´s idea.

As this info spreads and solidifies, expect the supply to dry as the desert of atacama.


I hope the supply dries up... Let the emission be the only number of coins available for buyers.
legendary
Activity: 981
Merit: 1005
No maps for these territories
August 21, 2016, 12:10:52 PM
Alphabay/Oasis is like the perfect, organic PR campaign we were discussing a few pages ago, descending from heavens, packet and ready to go.

It just blows out of the water Amanda B Johnson´s idea.

As this info spreads and solidifies, expect the supply to dry as the desert of atacama.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
August 21, 2016, 11:28:21 AM
Truly private currency. I think as more people begin to grasp cryptonote protocol they will begin to realize this....

game changing?

Anyone know what the price of BTC went to when added to SR back in the day?


Looks like news is official as of 2hrs ago: Oasis XMR ANN: https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/4yv1dc/oasis_we_now_accept_monero_xmr/
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
August 21, 2016, 10:56:36 AM
Very interesting times.  If using xmr catches on in online marketplaces the vendors who adopt earliest stand to make the most gains from the probable rise this will synergistically cause.

In the case of that sort of feedback loop, we should be aware a bubble is likely.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
August 21, 2016, 10:45:31 AM
What I am anticipating (which no one can 100% accurately predict) is when will there be the first big XMR theft or hack. This could mean that Poloniex or another exchange or marketplace gets hacked (not saying they will, but it has a > 0% chance of happening).

That could be an interesting precedent in how the economy/law enforcement etc react to such a theft/hack.

Up until now there hasn't been "news-worthy" hacks/thefts of XMR...yet.

I suspect it will happen sooner or later and price may or may not take a dump. From past experience all hacks are followed with price dumps.

Probably after monero has a bull run will it be worth a hacker stealing some XMR.

All just speculation for now...

No different than ETH being on Poloniex and going through a rise. Polo has not been hacked in recent times. Back in the day yes. But not in the past couple years. I highly doubt a hack will come to a big exchange. I have been watching XMR for years and I really think this coin can do well. DNM adoption is big time deal...if AlphaBay does follow...this is unprecedented news. This could be the first truly private currency we have ever had. - BTC was the first decentralized digital currency and solves many issues. Monero solves privacy. - dash may be private to some extent and may have a place in the future....but XMR if used by the blackmarket will be an obvious powerhouse. If a vendor knows the fundamentals of this currency and transacts in it if he/she were smart they would also hold /store their wealth in XMR. - cash out to BTC / DASH when needed....  buying XMR now could potentially be a massive discount on product across all DNM's in the future if they all adopt it. SO early supporters of XMR will have firesale discounts on products across the dark web.

- Also I know XMR is in no way associated with the DarkNET....just pointing out that this will benefit the currency. Also give it more value as their is a major economy now behind it.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
August 21, 2016, 10:40:55 AM
Wow....Huge shorts are going to open in this area....

Might see a big sell-off back to 0.002 maybe


Be careful buying a pump up coin


My thorough research indicates this region is a critical are for shorting

Good luck

I am slowly squeezing Moneros from the lending markets. I am sorry for not being able to meet your loan demand anymore.
I am seeing the lending activities now riskier than never before.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
August 21, 2016, 10:36:17 AM
Wow....Huge shorts are going to open in this area....

Might see a big sell-off back to 0.002 maybe


Be careful buying a pump up coin


My thorough research indicates this region is a critical are for shorting

Good luck
newbie
Activity: 1
Merit: 0
August 21, 2016, 10:13:02 AM
Long time lurker. Finally made an account.

Just wanted to thank you all for your intelligent analysis.
legendary
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1001
getmonero.org
August 21, 2016, 09:49:39 AM
I speculate that this is helping. The exchange rates that are showing everywhere in the site looks like a good advertisement for starters. No vendors spotted accepting xmr after 2 minutes of looking.


legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
August 21, 2016, 09:36:10 AM
Anyway, price continues to go up while folks on this thread get more gloomy with talk of hacks and development 'fails' - could there be a correlation.

The dilemma suggested: Malevolence or incompetence.  If this dilemma is not a false one, abductively we can conclude: Competent persons of good will are bullish.

The argument is formally correct, but it's soundness depends upon a consistent binding of the ground-terms to the prevailing circumstance.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Dumb broad
August 21, 2016, 09:20:42 AM
Anyway, price continues to go up while folks on this thread get more gloomy with talk of hacks and development 'fails' - could there be a correlation.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Dumb broad
August 21, 2016, 09:18:12 AM
Is now a good time to buy XMR or do you guys think it will come down some and offer a better entry.

I suggest you seek professional financial advice from someone licensed to do such a thing.

With all the experience on this thread I thought that's what I was doing.
 Wink

Picked up a few k though. Hope it pays off.

Experienced != Legally Licensed to give financial advice.

I've always thought the whole point of crypto was to avoid those ignorant scam artists legally licensed to give financial advice.
To whit...
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 21, 2016, 08:30:06 AM
Is now a good time to buy XMR or do you guys think it will come down some and offer a better entry.

I suggest you seek professional financial advice from someone licensed to do such a thing.

With all the experience on this thread I thought that's what I was doing.
 Wink

Picked up a few k though. Hope it pays off.

Experienced != Legally Licensed to give financial advice.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
August 21, 2016, 07:56:23 AM
Is now a good time to buy XMR or do you guys think it will come down some and offer a better entry.

I suggest you seek professional financial advice from someone licensed to do such a thing.

With all the experience on this thread I thought that's what I was doing.
 Wink

Picked up a few k though. Hope it pays off.
hero member
Activity: 563
Merit: 500
August 21, 2016, 06:21:22 AM
Also, more generally than just choice of curve, the CryptoNote coins (of which Monero is one) are rare amongst cryptocurrencies in sharing very little of the cryptographic design of Bitcoin.  So in the event that a flaw is found in Bitcoin's cryptographic design, there's a reasonable chance it might not affect Monero (or vice versa).

The one obvious advantage that Bitcoin does currently have over CryptoNote is that its design (which has remained fundamentally unchanged since it's initial launch) has been very widely studied over the years since then.  Generally this kind of widespread review is the only way to gain assurance that there are no flaws in a cryptographic protocol, and Monero has inevitably had fewer cryptographic eyes on it.

Of course, in the very near future Bitcoin is likely to deploy segwit.  Although segwit doesn't change the underlying cryptography, a significant change to cryptographic protocol always carries a risk of unintended consequences - so it becomes harder to argue that Bitcoin, in its post-segwit future form - will have had the same number of eyes on it.
hero member
Activity: 563
Merit: 500
August 21, 2016, 06:04:52 AM
Quote
Popularity

Curve25519 was first released by Daniel J. Bernstein in 2005,[7] but interest increased considerably after 2013 when it was discovered that the NSA had implemented a backdoor into Dual EC DRBG. While not directly related,[8] suspicious aspects of the NIST's P curve constants[9] led to concerns[10] that the NSA had chosen values that gave them an advantage in factoring[11] public keys.[12]

    I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
    — Bruce Schneier, The NSA Is Breaking Most Encryption on the Internet (2013)

Since then, Curve25519 has become the de facto alternative to P-256, and is used in a wide variety of applications.[13] In 2014 OpenSSH[14] defaults to Curve25519-based ECDH.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curve25519

I agree that Wikipedia article isn't as clear as it could be - in that the context of the Bruce Schneier quote isn't particularly clear to readers not familliar with the history of the curves being discussed here.  But I assure you that Bruce was not talking about Curve25519 there.

The reason for the inclusion of that particular quote in the article is to explain why Curve25519 has become popular in recent years:  there are concerns about the choice of constants in other curves, which has resulted in many more people using Curve25519 precisely because there are no such concerns with Curve25519.

Curve25519 is generally considered to be safe.  That said, there are those who worry (Bruce Schneier included) that the NSA may have made advances in the cryptanalysis of ECC in general - but if that's the case then any attacks might affect all curves - or at least, we have no way of knowing which curves are vulnerable.  If that were to be the case, it would be a concern for pretty much all cyrptocurrencies, though - potentially necessitating a move to larger keys (depending on how bad the attack is).

Actually, using a different curve to the one used by Bitcoin and most other coins is a good thing because it gives the market an opportunity to hedge the risk by holding coins that use different curves.  If an attack on ECC is found (by the NSA or someone else) it's quite possible (although by no means a given) that the attack might work better against some curves than others - although there's no real way to know which curves are safer in advance of the attack being found.

EDIT: Actually, looks like I was wrong - Monero uses Ed25519 and EdDSA (not Curve25519 and ECDSA).  So it shares even less crypto with most other coins that I had thought.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 21, 2016, 05:32:10 AM
...

@Heuristic there are no significant known or reasonably suspected problems with Curve25519. I have no idea where you are getting that from.


I read it from a guy. So why is Shen recommending ed's Twisted? All Crypto eventually gets broken, we all know this. The question is what are the contingency plans.

In almost all cases of non-stupid crypto the "breaking" takes the form of theoretical weaknesses that aren't practically usable for an actual attack until years later if ever, but reduce the security margin to an uncomfortable level. At that point you replace it with something else and people have ample opportunity to switch over. Nothing like that is even on the horizon right now.

I know Shen has been looking at various things, even post-quantum stuff. I have no idea how far long that exploration is at this point.


You should continue... we are not cryptographers. Are you saying that they have a backdoor to XMR?. Is this curve reemplazable in a common hard fork?


If by reemplazable you meant replaceable as I think you did then of course, anything can be changed with a hard fork.


We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

Quote
I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

you are underestimating the amount of effort to build something like Cryptonote, it blows Zcash away, the darknet has spoken and its going with Monero.

about the curve, looks like you missed these commits.

A proposal to change to one of edwards twisted curves?  Has this been voted on? Set for a hard fork date? Ignored? Left to be implemented in a competing project? Which really brings up other questions along the lines of the ones I had that fluffy stopped answering.

That's not a change at all. What was done there is replace separate copy of the crypto library in Monero with the exact unmodified crypto library from its original source. That eliminates the possibility that the Monero crypto library was somehow modified to introduce a back door (though it has been reviewed and wasn't, this makes that fact more transparent)
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 501
August 21, 2016, 05:21:15 AM
Doing it for you guys :

find Mastering the Trade by John F Carter and go to The case study you won't read about at harvard business school.


XMR is going through a very basic set up, and lot's of people are going to get trapped at the top.
Jump to: