Define calamity. Capital controls, confiscatory taxation, bail-ins are all good for XMR. These are foreseeable, known unknowns. I don't anticipate that they will be dominant factors in valuation until after the known catalysts have made their primary impact.
Regarding knowns: Look to AML/KYC and contraband use-cases. Some consider that history has proven the war on plants to be a calamity, which we are already experiencing in the fullest. I think that will be good for 25x-50x gains in XMR if/when software usability and risk-aversion demand align.
Then there are unknown unknowns, unforseen use-cases in which privacy makes the difference between a dark world of calamity, and bright open spaces. If I were to name them, they would no longer be in this category. Very hard to discount, therefore.
It's not literally "exponential" until the factors are seen to have compounded.
We've been over the use cases a million times. All of those use cases you listed are good and XMR is good in theory right now but something needs to actually drive the reaction. The temperature needs to be changed. An enzyme needs to be added. Something is eluding us.
It may be that we are waiting for an extinction event. That is what I mean by calamity. Perhaps the complete or near destruction of global financial system. In that case, people will be running for their lives. XMR could function as a lifeboat alongside precious metals, etc.
It may be that we need a clear-cut case of bitcoin blockchain analysis bringing down a large group of illicit traffickers in order for all of those markets to switch over to XMR.
I'm still reading stories about people strapping cash to their bodies and trying to physically cross borders. This stuff is not necessary anymore.
I'm trying to understand what it is that we're waiting for. I don't think it's any sort of GUI or decrease in the block reward or anything like that. Maybe XMR actually has to be the last man standing. The only good option left. And not just from a theoretical standpoint. Maybe things have to actually be on fire.
