[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1229.

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Quote from: needmoney90 on July 25, 2016, 12:17:55 PM

Wow, this thread made it to page 3 with all the ETH threads cropping up in the past couple days. I don't think I've ever seen it so far down. Markets aren't doing much, but they will be....Soon.

Others make splashy headlines, Monero keeps working methodically toward the goal. I see steady progress, and of course, impending Soon^TM stuff. Excitement will follow, I have no doubt.

Hueristic

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Quote from: ArticMine on July 25, 2016, 04:22:35 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on July 25, 2016, 04:15:54 PM

With Monero the attacker cannot be selective, but he can still lobby/influence/deceive users into supporting a fork to "undo" something of consequence (by rolling back the chain to before it happened).

Yes, but we are then talking about a different attack. An attack that does not rely on the historically proven and highly successful psychological techniques of rallying support against a manufactured enemy. For this reason I would expect this non selective type of attack to have a significantly lower chance of success.

Edit: Rolling back the Monero block chain to reverse a particular transaction could create very significant collateral damage; which would be orders of magnitude harder to sell.

If transactions ever got hard forked in XMR it would be the end of the coin period. But that will never happen so no worries here.

I sparked up a miner just for ETC, just for the principle. I still hate ETH.

ArticMine

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Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on July 25, 2016, 04:15:54 PM

With Monero the attacker cannot be selective, but he can still lobby/influence/deceive users into supporting a fork to "undo" something of consequence (by rolling back the chain to before it happened).

Yes, but we are then talking about a different attack. An attack that does not rely on the historically proven and highly successful psychological techniques of rallying support against a manufactured enemy. For this reason I would expect this non selective type of attack to have a significantly lower chance of success.

Edit: Rolling back the Monero block chain to reverse a particular transaction could create very significant collateral damage; which would be orders of magnitude harder to sell.

Johnny Mnemonic

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With Monero the attacker cannot be selective, but he can still lobby/influence/deceive users into supporting a fork to "undo" something of consequence (by rolling back the chain to before it happened). It would be even easier if the attackers are well-known figures in the community. I agree that such moves are more likely to be opportunistic, as seen in Ethereum (defeat the hacker and save my investment), but it remains a threat nonetheless.

ArticMine

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Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on July 25, 2016, 03:42:02 PM

...

A wise attacker would never make it obvious who the real target is. I assume that's your point.

Just like you can manufacture an "incident" to incite legislation, you can come up with an unlimited number of justifications for a hard fork.

Not really. My point is that the attacker first vilifies the target, and then rallies support against the "enemy". That is why selectiveness is crucial. I guess it could be possible to use this as cover for a broader attack: however the attack still relies on a clearly identified target that is first vilified and the rallying of the majority in the war against the newly created enemy.

History, has over the ages, unfortunately proven how effective this can be. I am talking about overall human psychology, here which is way broader than just the specific application of these psychological techniques to attack a particular block chain. In the block chain case it fails with Monero because the attacker cannot be selective.

Johnny Mnemonic

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Quote from: ArticMine on July 25, 2016, 03:04:16 PM

In the Ethereum case this was the "evil" DAO "hacker" out to destroy Ethereum. For this reason selectiveness was critical here. People will react very differently if they presume they themselves are the target.

A wise attacker would never make it obvious who the real target is. I assume that's your point.

Just like you can manufacture an "incident" to incite legislation, you can come up with an unlimited number of justifications for a hard fork.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: ArticMine on July 24, 2016, 08:07:31 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on July 24, 2016, 05:26:56 PM

...

Given this wide margin and the tightness of Monero trading range it is pretty unlikely you will be able to trade much. Also, why would you sell if the price rises beyond the line? Isn't it a potential breakthrough and the start of new period of higher growth?
On the other hand, why would you buy a coin that is dumping, isn't it potential start of bearish cycle?

-------------------------

My speculation: I am slightly bullish... We will see if Monero can reach 0.003... The trading volume is low now (been it pretty much since 2014).
2016 is a year of results, but we will see if it is possible to get a nice uptrend this year. Still the charts are bearish if you look them from ATH.
The current community very unlikely can drive the price up - investments are needed outside and the outreach should take place. Unfortunately Peter Todd is not the person I am refering to. Some big names would be beneficial for Monero (a billionaire from Forbes for instance etc.).

I would not place much weight on on the early ATH in 2014 because of the change in market capitalization, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#charts. One cannot simply extrapolate technical analysis from stocks (where price follows market capitalization) to a POW crypto - currency during its first two years. There are critical aspects of technical analysis that break down in such an extrapolation. My take is that 0.0043 XBT is a critical resistance point here. As for the 2014 ATH, I am not sure at all.

Even though the number of coins have grown since June 2014, it still would be pretty disappointing if new ATH will not be reached - that makes Monero pretty much the same class with all the other alts here which cannot grow back to the initial pump because of the rise in the number of coins.

In case of Monero, the emission is less than 50 % from those levels so technically it should be possible even to maintain it. Bear in mind, the emission also represent very small portion of the trading so it is mainly trading with other bagholders since the real world use of XMR is very limited afaik.

ArticMine

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My take is that this would not work for a generalized malicious hard fork.

There is some significant human psychology here. A key component is to convince the majority that the attack targets someone else. Some individual or group who is "evil" in some sense. In the Ethereum case this was the "evil" DAO "hacker" out to destroy Ethereum. For this reason selectiveness was critical here. People will react very differently if they presume they themselves are the target.

Johnny Mnemonic

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I agree, and argued quite a bit on reddit that the mere possibility of blockchain rollbacks opens the door to the kind of political influence/manipulation that plagues our more established systems in society. If we give an inch we lose a light year.

Think about it: How difficult is it for a group of powerful individuals to lobby users and produce 'fake' media support for a malicious fork? If everyone thinks the popular chain is the new one, will they all support it?

ArticMine

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Quote from: needmoney90 on July 25, 2016, 12:17:55 PM

Wow, this thread made it to page 3 with all the ETH threads cropping up in the past couple days. I don't think I've ever seen it so far down. Markets aren't doing much, but they will be....Soon.

This is hardly surprising. What has recently occurred in Ethereum forking a coin in order to reverse transactions has shaken the crypto currency scene to its very foundations, going all the way back to the original Bitcoin whitepaper. I responded to this in one of the many Ethereum threads.

Quote from: ArticMine on July 24, 2016, 11:06:34 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on July 24, 2016, 10:14:23 PM

...

But it's not good for cryptocurrency as a whole. It could (arguably) even hold Bitcoin back. The uncertainty caused by Buterin could hurt us all as supporters whether you're a developer, researcher, entrepreneur or speculator.

I agree. This sets a precedent that reaches all the way back to: Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System by Satoshi Nakamoto https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf. To understand why I am quoting the introduction to the above paper:

Quote

1. Introduction

Commerce on the Internet has come to rely almost exclusively on financial institutions serving as trusted third parties to process electronic payments. While the system works well enough for most transactions, it still suffers from the inherent weaknesses of the trust based model. Completely non-reversible transactions are not really possible, since financial institutions cannot avoid mediating disputes. The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for non-reversible services. With the possibility of reversal, the need for trust spreads. Merchants must be wary of their customers, hassling them for more information than they would otherwise need.

A certain percentage of fraud is accepted as unavoidable. These costs and payment uncertainties can be avoided in person by using physical currency, but no mechanism exists to make payments over a communications channel without a trusted party. What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party. Transactions that are computationally impractical to reverse would protect sellers from fraud, and routine escrow mechanisms could easily be implemented to protect buyers. In this paper, we propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer distributed timestamp server to generate computational proof of the chronological order of transactions. The system is secure as long as honest nodes collectively control more CPU power than any cooperating group of attacker nodes.

The implications of this for Monero are profound, since this kind of hard fork would be virtually impossible to pull of in Monero. In the case of Monero the censor is effectively blinded. On the other hand any time locked transaction in a transparent blockchain is vulnerable. Also coins under the control of someone who is prevented from moving those coins are also highly vulnerable to this kind of reversal attack. What makes this attack so significant is that it actually proves Satoshi Nakamoto incorrect. A decentralized proof of work blockchain is not enough to prevent the reversal of transactions, since in this case the attack was carried out by persuasion. Ethereum does not have a serious miner concentration issue, in fact it has one of the highest degrees of miner decentralization among POW crypto currencies.

I urge the reader to read Satoshi Nakamoto's paper again to understand why Bitcoin was created in the first place. Then one can understand why this Ethereum fork is so profound.

needmoney90

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Wow, this thread made it to page 3 with all the ETH threads cropping up in the past couple days. I don't think I've ever seen it so far down. Markets aren't doing much, but they will be....Soon.

ArticMine

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on July 24, 2016, 05:26:56 PM

...

Given this wide margin and the tightness of Monero trading range it is pretty unlikely you will be able to trade much. Also, why would you sell if the price rises beyond the line? Isn't it a potential breakthrough and the start of new period of higher growth?
On the other hand, why would you buy a coin that is dumping, isn't it potential start of bearish cycle?

-------------------------

My speculation: I am slightly bullish... We will see if Monero can reach 0.003... The trading volume is low now (been it pretty much since 2014).
2016 is a year of results, but we will see if it is possible to get a nice uptrend this year. Still the charts are bearish if you look them from ATH.
The current community very unlikely can drive the price up - investments are needed outside and the outreach should take place. Unfortunately Peter Todd is not the person I am refering to. Some big names would be beneficial for Monero (a billionaire from Forbes for instance etc.).

I would not place much weight on on the early ATH in 2014 because of the change in market capitalization, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#charts. One cannot simply extrapolate technical analysis from stocks (where price follows market capitalization) to a POW crypto - currency during its first two years. There are critical aspects of technical analysis that break down in such an extrapolation. My take is that 0.0043 XBT is a critical resistance point here. As for the 2014 ATH, I am not sure at all.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: s1gs3gv on July 24, 2016, 05:50:56 PM

You sound very wistful.

Yes. You never know when Aminorex mentions the famous words: "I am bullish". Grin

There is pretty much 2 directions: up or down. Steady is only for short term a possibility. Mostly Monero has gone down and if you take the chart from the beginning you see these rises look just dead cat bounces compared with the peak in the beginning.
For your comfort, the same pattern is repeated almost in every alt (Etherium might be an expection), but I am not sure if the comparison will help. Let's say, I believe once I see. Cheesy

I own Moneros and sure it is in my best interest to pump it to the skies but I am not sure if it is possible to drive it even beyond ATH not to mentioning the Moon ^TM.

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You sound very wistful.

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Quote from: aminorex on July 23, 2016, 08:15:11 PM

For now:

Draw a straight line from the May 31 low through the July 20 low. Below that rising line, I will buy.

Draw a straight line from the May 18 high through the July 10 high. Above that rising line, I will sell.

I will guess that this rule will hold for at least a week if neither line is crossed in that time, maybe longer. The ramp is too steep to hold through August, though. Past 340k the likelihood of a >10% correction rises quadratically as we approach 440k, and goes exponential, with increasing expected magnitude, thereafter.

All these numbers are intended to be very fuzzy.

I get the impression that, at this hash rate, miners on average tend to withhold their stock below $2. Just a vague impression, mind you, and over the short term real-time miner sales are not very significant to price nowadays, since the total reward is only about 1% of exchange volume, and declining, but in the past, over weeks and months, the then-prevailing miner preference level has been a pretty significant price-attractor.

If I had a clever way to raise hash rates, I certainly would. Obviously, I don't.

Given this wide margin and the tightness of Monero trading range it is pretty unlikely you will be able to trade much. Also, why would you sell if the price rises beyond the line? Isn't it a potential breakthrough and the start of new period of higher growth?
On the other hand, why would you buy a coin that is dumping, isn't it potential start of bearish cycle?

-------------------------

My speculation: I am slightly bullish... We will see if Monero can reach 0.003... The trading volume is low now (been it pretty much since 2014).
2016 is a year of results, but we will see if it is possible to get a nice uptrend this year. Still the charts are bearish if you look them from ATH.
The current community very unlikely can drive the price up - investments are needed outside and the outreach should take place. Unfortunately Peter Todd is not the person I am refering to. Some big names would be beneficial for Monero (a billionaire from Forbes for instance etc.).

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: r.o.o.t on July 24, 2016, 02:06:50 PM

It seems like somebody heard about Vinklevoss brothers already, price is 3% up while all other crypto taking a dive.
Probably a good time to invest while XMR is still cheap !

Ít is not a reason to go all in XMR if Peter Todd or someone else says nice complements on XMR.
If Wall Street Journal writes they have bought in, it is more bullish (or they are going to buy - and obviously this kind of news you cannot read), it is bullish.

s1gs3gv

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Quote from: r.o.o.t on July 24, 2016, 02:06:50 PM

It seems like somebody heard about Vinklevoss brothers already, price is 3% up while all other crypto taking a dive.
Probably a good time to invest while XMR is still cheap !

FOMOXRMOXYMORON

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http://github.com/root8/fsigDecredGUI

It seems like somebody heard about Vinklevoss brothers already, price is 3% up while all other crypto taking a dive.
Probably a good time to invest while XMR is still cheap !

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TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: farfiman on July 23, 2016, 11:50:20 PM

http://forklog.net/exante-winklevoss-brothers-etf-to-skyrocket-bitcoin-price/

Monero mentioned !

"FL: Your fund was launched a few years ago. How many cryptocurrencies have entered the market during these years? Do you invest in anything, besides bitcoin?

AK: Yes, the other cryptocurrencies, such as Litecoin, have appeared after the first bitcoin “boom”. Their number was rising, but, to tell the truth, we were not interested in it at all. It was funny. It was something like pump-and-dump scheme. Technologically, we were only interested in Ethereum, yet we did not invest. Actually, after a more detailed assessment, I am in doubt that we will. We are also interested in Monero. Its creators, at least, have made a technologically real great thing that makes this project more valuable when compared to bitcoin. We like it. That’s all I guess."

I hope their interest in Monero turns to investment into Monero.
I think, the marketcap needs boost to become lucrative in the eyes of people. Now marketcap is smaller than the marketcap of many small cap company's marketcap - and this is supposed to be a world reserve currency...

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1229. (Read 3314316 times)