I am now under the assumption that xmr market is so manipulated that it can not break out until there is a massive influx I.E. Mass adoption. I am now acting under the premise that I will be able to see that trend and adjust accordingly as opposed to the normal bot manipulation which I actually have been doing pretty well against. My reasoning is the continual siphoning from the cap we see each and everyday non-stop. I'm surprised it can hold it's price as well as it does. If I didn't know better I would think coins are appearing from nowhere.
W0w, those were my exact words when I divested. Thanks for taking note. BTW feel free to credit me when quoting me.
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I see the market at this point as very complex and I can see why a simple commnet such as:
I am with americanpegasus here. ...
can lead to a misunderstanding.
OK, wouldn't be my first reading comprehension fail!
The question that comes to my mind is are we going in to a Bitcoin bubble?
I made the assumption we all agree that btc is in a bubble. Your not so sure? The average joe doesn't care less about halving IMHO this is pure speculation with a big fat dump coming.
If the answer is no then this is a scenario where moving into fiat with the idea of buying Monero in the future at a lower price in fiat terms than now may make some sense. Still even under this scenario there remains the risk of significant improvements in Monero such as the GUI and RingCT, keeping the fiat price of Monero above the current levels.
I am now under the assumption that xmr market is so manipulated that it can not break out until there is a massive influx I.E. Mass adoption. I am now acting under the premise that I will be able to see that trend and adjust accordingly as opposed to the normal bot manipulation which I actually have been doing pretty well against. My reasoning is the continual siphoning from the cap we see each and everyday non-stop. I'm surprised it can hold it's price as well as it does. If I didn't know better I would think coins are appearing from nowhere.If the answer is yes then my take is that we can learn from the past behaviors of alt coins in the 2013 Bitcoin bubbles. Litecoin is a good example; however this market behavior was by no means limited to Litecoin. I will start with both the LTC/XBT and LTC/USD charts going back to 2012.
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltimehttps://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/usd/btc-e/alltimeNow compare this to XBT/USD also going back to 2011
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/btc/usd/bitstamp/alltimeThe salient points I see are:
1) Litecoin spikes with respect to Bitcoin at the same time as Bitcoin spikes with respect to USD. In effect Litecoin acts as a leveraged play on Bitcoin during the Bitcoin bubble.
2) The pre March 2013 Litecoin lows with respect to both USD and even XBT were not reached in the subsequent bear markets. Yes Litecoin fell from close to 50 USD to just over 1 USD in 2015, in a brutal bear market. This bear market, however, was not brutal enough to bail out a Litecoin "short" who sold LTC for USD in say February of 2013 with the intent of buying back into LTC after the bubble burst.
3) The Litecoin lows with respect to XBT and USD after the April 2013 and November 2013 bubbles were comparable. One possible scenario is that the April 2013 Bitcoin bubble brought a new awareness to Litcoin since it was the first bubble in Bitcoin after the creation of Litecoin.
This could be relevant not just for Monero but also for those coins that were created in 2014 or later.
I have no interest in LTC and would not expect XMR market to mirror any market except possibly itself. The bolded Qualifier is a perfect example of why acting on this is a bad idea. We don't invest on a "it could" situation.
Are the markets the same now as in 2013? Of course not; however I see the differences as possibly magnifying this effect in the case of Monero. We have Bitcoin suffering with the blocksize debate and is already driving money into the alt-coins, with Ethereum being the most clear case. There is also of course the chance of some of the pending development work in Monero being completed in the interim. With all of this in mind I find the idea of holding fiat with the idea of buying Monero at a later date, creating an effective short position, an extremely risky proposition. It could work but it could also backfire badly.
I hope you correct but I am certainly shorting btc vs xmr and xmr seems to like to settle at a pretty specific area vs usd so i'm pretty confident I will increase my holdings within 6 months. XMr will definitely teach you to play the long game.
Of course this must not be construed as investment advice and any long or short position in crypto currency should be considered extremly high risk and only undertaken after obtaining appropriate professional advice.
Disclosure: I do currently hold XMR, CAD and smaller amounts of XBT, NMC and USD.
Actually only a fiduciary is obligated to take your interests ahead of it's own when giving advice all the other "professional" advisors use you money to hedge their own investments.
4 posts and 2 of them with any meaning are plagiarized.
