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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1251. (Read 3314316 times)

member
Activity: 114
Merit: 10
July 07, 2016, 10:43:02 AM
Last time I saw such bullishness on Monero thread, I almost bought at the ATH ...  Grin

Uhoh, that must mean this is the top! Everybody panic and sell your Moneroj! to me
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 501
July 07, 2016, 10:41:03 AM
Last time I saw such bullishness on Monero thread, I almost bought at the ATH ...  Grin
hero member
Activity: 681
Merit: 507
July 07, 2016, 10:36:13 AM
A lot of shorts opened here. Got all my xmr on lending at a 0.1% rate.

Nice comeback for Monero :-)
sr. member
Activity: 397
Merit: 250
July 07, 2016, 09:28:24 AM
Hello,

Nice to see you back now as your selling targets are approaching.  Smiley

I've not given any targets so you must assume I have targets in the same area as last rally. I don't.

When the drop from .0042 took place, I remember you posting that you were a little bit unhappy as you could've sold more, and that if the price revisited .003s you'd consider selling more.

My actual sell the dead cat target was lower, in the .0026-28 zone, where I only managed to sell very little, sadly, as there was just no decent bounce; selling the bottom was very possible so I tried avoiding it at all costs.

Regarding your story, I felt the same: I had set my mind to buy a certain amount of bitcoin's worth of XMR, but when the price was hovering around .001 I simply didn't have the balls to do it, and ended up buying only a fifth of what I had wanted. Such is life Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
July 07, 2016, 08:23:32 AM
I love it when a plan comes together.  And if we don't come apart, we will definitely come together.  Right now.  Over me.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 07, 2016, 08:15:41 AM
Hello,

Nice to see you back now as your selling targets are approaching.  Smiley

I've not given any targets so you must assume I have targets in the same area as last rally. I don't.

Don't get me wrong, it is vital for Monero that the coins will get redistributed. This is the very mechanism 1 XMR has chances to reach the ultimate goal of 2000 usd set by Reptilian in Polo trollbox back in 2014.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
July 07, 2016, 07:56:50 AM
Do you think Monero price can quickly climb to the level of 0.015?

If you have enough BTC, sure.  You would have to be super motivated to spend it all that way though, wouldn't you?  Unless you know of someone with the means and motive, then, the answer is no, not quickly; but, slowly?  Definitely yes.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
July 07, 2016, 07:56:15 AM
Do you think Monero price can quickly climb to the level of 0.015?

Resistance at the 0.004-0.005 level may well be inevitable, but the speed and ferocity at which it is finally broken shouldn't be of any objective surprise. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if we were toying with 0.0160 by years end.

Either way, Monero now only has to double in value for it to be one place behind Dash on the marketcap. Consequently, and in conjunction with a perceived "Monero vs ZCash" conversation that will make Dash increasingly irrelevant, speculative and community leakage will pour massively into the Monero ecosystem and the levees will break.

Without knowing it, suddenly Monero has a marketcap in excess of $100 million.  

hero member
Activity: 687
Merit: 500
novag
July 07, 2016, 07:47:24 AM
Do you think Monero price can quickly climb to the level of 0.015?
legendary
Activity: 1552
Merit: 1047
July 07, 2016, 07:28:06 AM
Hello,

Nice to see you back now as your selling targets are approaching.  Smiley

I've not given any targets so you must assume I have targets in the same area as last rally. I don't.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 07, 2016, 07:14:47 AM
Very pleased to see the price break 0.003 tonight. The market looks very strong and bullish.

I just noticed something interesting on the price chart. The price started going up on January 1st 2016 and never returned to those levels.



What happened on January 1st you ask? Monero version 0.9.0 Hydrogen Helix was released.

It was a long awaited release, especially the switch from storing blockchain in memory to storing it in DB which meant running monero became viable for a lot more users.

Was this the cause of the following price rise? There's this theory that market will price in everything in advance. Perhaps in a completely rational market this is the case, but markets are ruled by emotions. What's important to realize is that there had been no significant release for a very long time (more than a year). The price had just been consolidating in the gutter for a month after fully deflating from the previous bubble. After 8 months of only down, down and further down, people were losing hope, even I felt this. For a moment I started doubting my investment. When even true believers are considering selling we often have a turning point.

I think Hydrogen Helix spurred real optimism in the market and is the major reason the price went up only to never return.

The development was always visible on Github, but it wasn't until the actual release the market moved.

On that note, keep an eye on this.


Hello,

Nice to see you back now as your selling targets are approaching.  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1552
Merit: 1047
July 07, 2016, 05:56:32 AM
Very pleased to see the price break 0.003 tonight. The market looks very strong and bullish.

I just noticed something interesting on the price chart. The price started going up on January 1st 2016 and never returned to those levels.



What happened on January 1st you ask? Monero version 0.9.0 Hydrogen Helix was released.

It was a long awaited release, especially the switch from storing blockchain in memory to storing it in DB which meant running monero became viable for a lot more users.

Was this the cause of the following price rise? There's this theory that market will price in everything in advance. Perhaps in a completely rational market this is the case, but markets are ruled by emotions. What's important to realize is that there had been no significant release for a very long time (more than a year). The price had just been consolidating in the gutter for a month after fully deflating from the previous bubble. After 8 months of only down, down and further down, people were losing hope, even I felt this. For a moment I started doubting my investment. When even true believers are considering selling we often have a turning point.

I think Hydrogen Helix spurred real optimism in the market and is the major reason the price went up only to never return.

The development was always visible on Github, but it wasn't until the actual release the market moved.

On that note, keep an eye on this.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
July 07, 2016, 02:57:08 AM
...
How is Monero's scaling terrible compared to Bitcoin?  I don't get it.

If one believes that keeping the blocksize in Bitcoin at 1 MB is a good idea then Monero's scaling with its adaptive blocksize limit could be seen as terrible. Monero's scaling appeals to those who want to see an increase in the Bitcoin blocksize

I think iCEBREAKER is a well known exception to that generalization about blocksize preferences although I think he has some specific reasons for it.

It is scientifically valid to modify a control variable like max_blocksize in Monero, which is an iteration of the Bitcoin experiment.

It is not scientifically valid to modify a control variable like max_blocksize in Bitcoin prior to the resolution of that experiment.

(Unless you are a Hearnia-suffering Gavinista, in which case you believe the Bitcoin experiment has already been resolved.)

Thermos is making an unfair comparison between default Bitcoin tx size and default Monero tx size.

It's an apple vs orange situation.  One is public, the other private.  Of course the privacy isn't free.

That trade-off is a subtle point, but perhaps smooth & the gang can back me up with some numbers for illustration.

tx size[ZeroCash + zk-SNARK Area51 alien tech]  >> tx size[Bitcoin + ad hoc off-chain kludge privacy overhead]  >  tx size[Monero including de facto elegant on-chain privacy protocol]

Private tx size, from largest to smallest:

3. Zcash.  Takes gobs of RAM to run, and tx are correspondingly enormous.
2. Bitcoin <-> CoinJoin <-> CT sidechain.  BTC tx are small, but CJ/CT overhead is not.
1. Monero.  On-chain mixing, while challenging to prune, provides one stop shopping.  Unknown if/how RingCT overhead will interact with large block reward penalty.

Perhaps Lightning, a future BIP, or nifty CoinShuffle-type on-chain mixing hack will someday give BTC on-chain fungibility|privacy.

Until then, let's scale Bitcoin to 1mb while remembering that ossification is the engine of a bone's anti-fragility (it heals more strongly where broken).

Undue concern about Monero's tx size is exactly like undue concern about Bitcoin's 7 tps of economic bandwidth.

These critiques seem applicable so long as your model is Paypal But With Moar Blockchains.

When you reevaluate using the correct Gold 2.0 settlement paradigm, it's obvious Bitcoin and Monero tx are, however scarce, potentially among most precious things that have ever existed, due to their exorbitant utility in terms of ~frictionless value transfer and wealth creation/preservation.

I would like to see an example of each comparison in tx size.

Personally I haven't followed zcash too closely to know that information, but does anyone have an example?

Painting a clear picture of side by side comparisons of these 3 generalized sizes would be helpful.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 07, 2016, 02:39:51 AM
I cannot believe, literally almost nobody is willing to take margin long positions (Monero is just one player in the margin trading arena). The bitcoin interest rates are at the bottom of the bottom and there are 8200 btc available for long positions. Imagine if this money flows to Monero, what will happen to the price, perhaps ATH?
full member
Activity: 125
Merit: 100
Chief Technology Officer, NYC
July 07, 2016, 02:19:46 AM
Out of control. The correction is brewing. Or not  Wink

All the way up from here.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
July 07, 2016, 02:16:16 AM
...
How is Monero's scaling terrible compared to Bitcoin?  I don't get it.

If one believes that keeping the blocksize in Bitcoin at 1 MB is a good idea then Monero's scaling with its adaptive blocksize limit could be seen as terrible. Monero's scaling appeals to those who want to see an increase in the Bitcoin blocksize

I think iCEBREAKER is a well known exception to that generalization about blocksize preferences although I think he has some specific reasons for it.

It is scientifically valid to modify a control variable like max_blocksize in Monero, which is an iteration of the Bitcoin experiment.

It is not scientifically valid to modify a control variable like max_blocksize in Bitcoin prior to the resolution of that experiment.

(Unless you are a Hearnia-suffering Gavinista, in which case you believe the Bitcoin experiment has already been resolved.)

Thermos is making an unfair comparison between default Bitcoin tx size and default Monero tx size.

It's an apple vs orange situation.  One is public, the other private.  Of course the privacy isn't free.

That trade-off is a subtle point, but perhaps smooth & the gang can back me up with some numbers for illustration.

tx size[ZeroCash + zk-SNARK Area51 alien tech]  >> tx size[Bitcoin + ad hoc off-chain kludge privacy overhead]  >  tx size[Monero including de facto elegant on-chain privacy protocol]

Private tx size, from largest to smallest:

3. Zcash.  Takes gobs of RAM to run, and tx are correspondingly enormous.
2. Bitcoin <-> CoinJoin <-> CT sidechain.  BTC tx are small, but CJ/CT overhead is not.
1. Monero.  On-chain mixing, while challenging to prune, provides one stop shopping.  Unknown if/how RingCT overhead will interact with large block reward penalty.

Perhaps Lightning, a future BIP, or nifty CoinShuffle-type on-chain mixing hack will someday give BTC on-chain fungibility|privacy.

Until then, let's scale Bitcoin to 1mb while remembering that ossification is the engine of a bone's anti-fragility (it heals more strongly where broken).

Undue concern about Monero's tx size is exactly like undue concern about Bitcoin's 7 tps of economic bandwidth.

These critiques seem applicable so long as your model is Paypal But With Moar Blockchains.

When you reevaluate using the correct Gold 2.0 settlement paradigm, it's obvious Bitcoin and Monero tx are, however scarce, potentially among most precious things that have ever existed, due to their exorbitant utility in terms of ~frictionless value transfer and wealth creation/preservation.
full member
Activity: 174
Merit: 101
July 07, 2016, 12:24:11 AM
Bitcoin loans are now very affordable and as ETH bubble seems to be bursting there are plenty of bitcoins available now for margin long positions.
If you believe the price will rise faster than you need to pay interest, you might want to take a small long position...?

For those new here by careful when listening to TrueCryptonaire. Usually when he wants to sell his Monero, he talks very bullish and when he wants to buy Monero he talks very bearish.

At one point he basically admitted this in his signature.  Many of us enjoy his commentary as it is sometimes funny. Just be cautious about following his trading advice.


Good point but I am not trading anymore. I am active in lending markets and face the hardships of getting decent interest rates from bitcoin side and the coins keep piling up.

I have not been trading for long time anymore. Just buying if it hits 0.001.  Grin

This is another reason why you are my favorite so called "troll". You sometimes make useful points.  Margin trading and lending on Poloniex has four major flaws:

1. Lack of margin/open interest data being published
2. Uneducated lenders giving loans at rates that are far too low
3. Poloniex has a fee share structure for P2P margin loans that is far too high
4. At least once they rolled back some trades (resulting from cascading margin calls resulting in a flash crash of a certain popular alt) which I view as an attack on the immutability of their trading ledger.

Regarding # 4 the Gemini Exchange did something similar (attacked trade immutability by rolling back trades when someone made a fat finger mistake and misplaced a decimal) which is a good reason to use decentralized exchanges like bitsquare instead
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 07, 2016, 12:13:59 AM
Bitcoin loans are now very affordable and as ETH bubble seems to be bursting there are plenty of bitcoins available now for margin long positions.
If you believe the price will rise faster than you need to pay interest, you might want to take a small long position...?

For those new here by careful when listening to TrueCryptonaire. Usually when he wants to sell his Monero, he talks very bullish and when he wants to buy Monero he talks very bearish.

At one point he basically admitted this in his signature.  Many of us enjoy his commentary as it is sometimes funny. Just be cautious about following his trading advice.


Good point but I am not trading anymore. I am active in lending markets and face the hardships of getting decent interest rates from bitcoin side and the coins keep piling up.

I have not been trading for long time anymore. Just buying if it hits 0.001.  Grin
-------------------------------------

I think the Etherium investors are about to jump into Monero and it is important to welcome them warmly and happily.
full member
Activity: 174
Merit: 101
July 07, 2016, 12:12:29 AM
...
How is Monero's scaling terrible compared to Bitcoin?  I don't get it.

If one believes that keeping the blocksize in Bitcoin at 1 MB is a good idea then Monero's scaling with its adaptive blocksize limit could be seen as terrible. Monero's scaling appeals to those who want to see an increase in the Bitcoin blocksize

I think iCEBREAKER is a well known exception to that generalization about blocksize preferences although I think he has some specific reasons for it.
full member
Activity: 174
Merit: 101
July 07, 2016, 12:08:13 AM
Bitcoin loans are now very affordable and as ETH bubble seems to be bursting there are plenty of bitcoins available now for margin long positions.
If you believe the price will rise faster than you need to pay interest, you might want to take a small long position...?

For those new here by careful when listening to TrueCryptonaire. Usually when he wants to sell his Monero, he talks very bullish and when he wants to buy Monero he talks very bearish.

At one point he basically admitted this in his signature.  Many of us enjoy his commentary as it is sometimes funny. Just be cautious about following his trading advice.
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