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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1323. (Read 3314309 times)

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
April 22, 2016, 12:25:33 PM

im more concerned about monero's security when quantum computing makes a breakthrough..  Tongue

I have a feeling that we have more important things to worry about in that case.

and/or maybe not!

Hey at least we can finally see Satoshi moving his coins :-P
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
April 22, 2016, 12:22:14 PM

im more concerned about monero's security when quantum computing makes a breakthrough..  Tongue

I have a feeling that we have more important things to worry about in that case.

and/or maybe not!
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
April 22, 2016, 11:33:49 AM

im more concerned about monero's security when quantum computing makes a breakthrough..  Tongue

I have a feeling that we have more important things to worry about in that case.
legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
April 22, 2016, 11:22:24 AM
...

Are there any good threads, sites or books dedicated to this subject? I'm between chapbooks and my new obsession is learning how a trustelessly decentralized cryptosystem would look in theory and in practice.

It is more like the story is being written as we speak and Monero is the only coin in the top 20 by by market capitalization that has a solution. The question of a market based solution to scalability and the related issue of spam was not part of Bitcoin's initial design. The 1 MB blocksize was added to Bitcoin in 2010 as an anti spam "temporary" fix. Virtually every other coin has copied Bitcoin on this and inherited the problem.

Edit: My take is that the Monero community will likely write the book on the subject.

While I don't disagree, I'd like to better follow the story as it's being written.  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
April 22, 2016, 11:06:33 AM

im more concerned about monero's security when quantum computing makes a breakthrough..  Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
April 22, 2016, 10:49:11 AM
Really, I was about to buy more as a early investor been waiting for a while.

/Globb
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Looking for shmexy coins!
April 22, 2016, 10:44:35 AM
Monero is nice but will get hit so hard when Zerocash launches that you will all regret not getting out when you had the chance.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
April 22, 2016, 10:22:56 AM
...

Are there any good threads, sites or books dedicated to this subject? I'm between chapbooks and my new obsession is learning how a trustelessly decentralized cryptosystem would look in theory and in practice.

It is more like the story is being written as we speak and Monero is the only coin in the top 20 by by market capitalization that has a solution. The question of a market based solution to scalability and the related issue of spam was not part of Bitcoin's initial design. The 1 MB blocksize was added to Bitcoin in 2010 as an anti spam "temporary" fix. Virtually every other coin has copied Bitcoin on this and inherited the problem.

Edit: My take is that the Monero community will likely write the book on the subject.
legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
April 22, 2016, 03:52:17 AM
...

This is just not true for numerous reasons.  You're basically saying we needed to spam blocks with bogus transactions for years on end to prevent an ASIC empire from growing in China.  If a larger block size existed allowing people to do things like this, people would have implemented something like a hard coded min transaction fee or just lowered block size to fight against it.  ASICs in China isn't a big problem because it's just a symptom of everything on earth being manufactured in China.  This will inevitably cease to exist through either tariffs or war.

No I am simply saying that the Bitcoin blocksize should have been and be allowed to rise to meet legitimate demand. An adaptive blocksize limit as is the case in Monero actually deals with spam issue also very well. If blocksize and the GFWC was not an issue then why are the Chinese miners so opposed to raising the blocksize limit? A 10 - 14 sec latency is not trivial when mining even with a 10 min blocktime. The myth that keeping the blocksize small was necessary to prevent miner centralization has been debunked in BItcoin by the GFWC.

The reality here is that we are dealing with complex financial systems with many variables. If one only takes a subset of the variables and makes assumptions then those assumptions will eventually fail. Not taking into the account the impact of government censorship on  Internet latency and proof of work mining is a good example as to why ignoring certain variables in the equation can lead to incorrect results.

Edit: The real issue here is that by setting such a critical parameter as the blocksize fixed in the protocol, instead of allowing the market to set the blocksize, Bitcoin has created a very powerful economic interest that now stands to loose a lot of money if Bitcoin is allowed to scale. This now has become a very serious problem for BItcoin.

Are there any good threads, sites or books dedicated to this subject? I'm between chapbooks and my new obsession is learning how a trustelessly decentralized cryptosystem would look in theory and in practice.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
April 22, 2016, 03:27:05 AM
Low volume means that random guys owning lots of coins that they are willing to sell in this price domain (anything less than a few thousand$ per BTC) is drying up. We've been here for so long, if anyone wished to sell, he had plenty of time to do so.

And for sure, the random guys are not a renewable. We had a lot of them, but tell me how many exist any more! Not so many.


I meant the price will rise from supply being dried up until some guy sitting on a bunch of coins thinks the market is overextended.  He will then sell in hopes of buying back cheaper, then the volume and volatility starts.  I didn't mean the guy wanted to dump for no reason.  Only a fool would want to sell and walk away right now.

We have had plenty of fools in the last years but the function of market is towards weeding them out. (A rare natural example of decreasing entropy in a system).

My overall philosophy on the signs of the rises:
(has to be taken in the context of investments with the parameters similar to cryptocoins)

Quick rise on high volume - GOOD - Brisk new demand and coins change hands

Quick rise on low volume - BAD - Most of the issue in few hands = overhang risk, liquidity risk, possible scam

Slow rise on high volume - BAD - If a high volume causes only slow rise, it is a toppish sign (unless just emerging from a bottom; then good)

Slow rise on low volume - GOOD - Supply drying up, possibility that the trading range will soon be contested leading to a massive revaluation


What already happened with BTC, volume collapsed and price is inching upwards in the weekly, is going to happen to XMR soon.

The only thing that can prevent it is new demand, which means that we will go up quickly on high volume, instead of slowly on low volume.

Both of the scenarios are healthy.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
April 21, 2016, 09:09:12 PM
...

This is just not true for numerous reasons.  You're basically saying we needed to spam blocks with bogus transactions for years on end to prevent an ASIC empire from growing in China.  If a larger block size existed allowing people to do things like this, people would have implemented something like a hard coded min transaction fee or just lowered block size to fight against it.  ASICs in China isn't a big problem because it's just a symptom of everything on earth being manufactured in China.  This will inevitably cease to exist through either tariffs or war.

No I am simply saying that the Bitcoin blocksize should have been and be allowed to rise to meet legitimate demand. An adaptive blocksize limit as is the case in Monero actually deals with spam issue also very well. If blocksize and the GFWC was not an issue then why are the Chinese miners so opposed to raising the blocksize limit? A 10 - 14 sec latency is not trivial when mining even with a 10 min blocktime. The myth that keeping the blocksize small was necessary to prevent miner centralization has been debunked in BItcoin by the GFWC.

The reality here is that we are dealing with complex financial systems with many variables. If one only takes a subset of the variables and makes assumptions then those assumptions will eventually fail. Not taking into the account the impact of government censorship on  Internet latency and proof of work mining is a good example as to why ignoring certain variables in the equation can lead to incorrect results.

Edit: The real issue here is that by setting such a critical parameter as the blocksize fixed in the protocol, instead of allowing the market to set the blocksize, Bitcoin has created a very powerful economic interest that now stands to loose a lot of money if Bitcoin is allowed to scale. This now has become a very serious problem for BItcoin.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
April 21, 2016, 08:43:16 PM
If Bitcoin had allowed the blocksize to grow back in 2012 - 2013, the Chinese ASIC manufacturer's would have been forced to sell their ASICs for export rather than operate them themselves locally and this would have prevented the concentration of Bitcoin mining in China.

This is just not true for numerous reasons.  You're basically saying we needed to spam blocks with bogus transactions for years on end to prevent an ASIC empire from growing in China.  If a larger block size existed allowing people to do things like this, people would have implemented something like a hard coded min transaction fee or just lowered block size to fight against it.  ASICs in China isn't a big problem because it's just a symptom of everything on earth being manufactured in China.  This will inevitably cease to exist through either tariffs or war.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 501
April 21, 2016, 08:39:05 PM
A BTC rise is needed at least for the next month or two to flush out the ICO scams that have been prevalent on the boards since January. All these MAID/WAVES/LISK/UPPERCASESCAMCOIN seem to be coming from the same type of factory. Until this new generation of crypto believers get burnt, they will not learn their lessons, however harsh that sounds. It doesn't mean some of the profiteers will change their stance or all of the ones getting burnt will learn, but that's just the way it is with money.

An unfortunate side effect is that the only alt that has real practical value, long and short term (XMR) will also take some beating as the small fishes seem to be revolting against the manipulation that they have undergone from the whales for a long time.

So why is monero dropping much harder than all those ICOs?

Too many smart players and knowledge of the playing field for starters but you could right a whole whitepaper on XMR trading patterns and still nothing can be predict the future analytics of it.

We are not even looking at a comparable timeline for these ICOs to even compare but everyone know whats coming for them except the dreamy newbies.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
April 21, 2016, 07:49:51 PM
XMR price doing fine, pressure because of bitcoin appreciation  Angry
https://www.coingecko.com/de/kurs_chart/monero/btc
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
April 21, 2016, 07:45:27 PM
...

This is a comparison with OkCoin:


Website Test Results
Tested From:   Shanghai, China
Tested At:   2016-04-22
00:37:30 (GMT +00:00)
URL Tested:   https://www.okcoin.cn/
Resolved As:   121.199.251.136
Status:   OK
Response Time:   0.252 sec
DNS:   0.086 sec
Connect:   0.007 sec
Redirect:   0.000 sec
First Byte:   0.096 sec
Last Byte:   0.063 sec
Size:   36254 bytes


Tested From:   New York, NY
Tested At:   2016-04-22
00:37:30 (GMT +00:00)
URL Tested:   https://www.okcoin.cn/
Resolved As:   121.199.251.136
Status:   OK
Response Time:   10.866 sec
DNS:   3.798 sec
Connect:   0.351 sec
Redirect:   0.000 sec
First Byte:   5.823 sec
Last Byte:   0.894 sec
Size:   36254 bytes

If most of the hashrate is within China it may actually make more sense to take the hit on the transactions themselves by using a sever within China, but then it becomes very blocksize sensitive.

Edit 1: Dash could prove an interesting test case here since it has a 2.5 min blocktime and now has ASICs. If my theory is correct Dash could have more resistance to the mining concentration in China issue than Bitcoin because of the latency / GFWC issue; however it also a fixed blocksize limit.

Edit 2: The above argument can also be made for Litecoin.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
April 21, 2016, 07:38:29 PM
Well here is a test for getmonero.org http://www.websitepulse.com/help/testtools.china-test.html

Website Test Results
Tested From:   Shanghai, China
Tested At:   2016-04-22
00:22:49 (GMT +00:00)
URL Tested:   http://getmonero.org
Resolved As:   104.25.211.22
Status:   OK
Response Time:   14.872 sec
DNS:   0.000 sec
Connect:   0.277 sec
Redirect:   12.382 sec
First Byte:   2.213 sec
Last Byte:   0.001 sec
Size:   2779 bytes
   
Tested From:   New York, NY
Tested At:   2016-04-22
00:22:49 (GMT +00:00)
URL Tested:   http://getmonero.org
Resolved As:   104.25.211.22
Status:   OK
Response Time:   0.507 sec
DNS:   0.000 sec
Connect:   0.009 sec
Redirect:   0.083 sec
First Byte:   0.415 sec
Last Byte:   0.000 sec
Size:   2779 bytes

The overall response time was 14.872 sec vs 0.507 sec. On a 2 min blocktime (Monero) this is very significant. Also how would the Chinese miners communicate with each other if they are using external servers without going four times across the GFWC? If they use Chinese servers they could avoid this; however they would still have to deal with domestic spying that would introduce both latency and bandwidth limitations.

This is a comparison with OkCoin:


Website Test Results
Tested From:   Shanghai, China
Tested At:   2016-04-22
00:37:30 (GMT +00:00)
URL Tested:   https://www.okcoin.cn/
Resolved As:   121.199.251.136
Status:   OK
Response Time:   0.252 sec
DNS:   0.086 sec
Connect:   0.007 sec
Redirect:   0.000 sec
First Byte:   0.096 sec
Last Byte:   0.063 sec
Size:   36254 bytes


Tested From:   New York, NY
Tested At:   2016-04-22
00:37:30 (GMT +00:00)
URL Tested:   https://www.okcoin.cn/
Resolved As:   121.199.251.136
Status:   OK
Response Time:   10.866 sec
DNS:   3.798 sec
Connect:   0.351 sec
Redirect:   0.000 sec
First Byte:   5.823 sec
Last Byte:   0.894 sec
Size:   36254 bytes
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
April 21, 2016, 07:33:03 PM
Well here is a test for getmonero.org http://www.websitepulse.com/help/testtools.china-test.html

Website Test Results
Tested From:   Shanghai, China
Tested At:   2016-04-22
00:22:49 (GMT +00:00)
URL Tested:   http://getmonero.org
Resolved As:   104.25.211.22
Status:   OK
Response Time:   14.872 sec
DNS:   0.000 sec
Connect:   0.277 sec
Redirect:   12.382 sec
First Byte:   2.213 sec
Last Byte:   0.001 sec
Size:   2779 bytes
   
Tested From:   New York, NY
Tested At:   2016-04-22
00:22:49 (GMT +00:00)
URL Tested:   http://getmonero.org
Resolved As:   104.25.211.22
Status:   OK
Response Time:   0.507 sec
DNS:   0.000 sec
Connect:   0.009 sec
Redirect:   0.083 sec
First Byte:   0.415 sec
Last Byte:   0.000 sec
Size:   2779 bytes

The overall response time was 14.872 sec vs 0.507 sec. On a 2 min blocktime (Monero) this is very significant. Also how would the Chinese miners communicate with each other if they are using external servers without going four times across the GFWC? If they use Chinese servers they could avoid this; however they would still have to deal with domestic spying that would introduce both latency and bandwidth limitations.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
April 21, 2016, 07:24:51 PM
...

Thanks for the support, but the GFW is a great lie. The ASICS only need a hash of the transactions, not all the transactions. The mining pool server can be located outside of China.

That will show you that the ASIC miners in China are greatlousy liars.

I am not so sure. They still have to get the hash of the transactions across the GFWC and the results then back to the server. The issue here is latency not bandwidth.

If mining is centralized in China doesn't that actually transfer the latency issue to non-Chinese miners? Resulting in possible more centralization. I recall reading such a thing.

Right. It is the minority that suffers from delayed block announcements, i.e. this is selfish mining.

Unless Chinese miners have a high latency between themselves within China?

Also I read the GFW was bandwidth limited. It is also latency limited and by how much? The Bitcoin block period is quite large so 100ms increase is probably fairly insignificant in the Poisson distribution.

Even if they have high latency between themselves, I think the latency of US <-> China is higher than within China. To make a gaming comparison, even if I have, for instance, a fiber connection as EU or Chinese player and an US player has an ADSL connection, playing on an US server will result in the US player having lower latency (i.e. ping in gaming).
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 262
April 21, 2016, 07:14:33 PM
...

Thanks for the support, but the GFW is a great lie. The ASICS only need a hash of the transactions, not all the transactions. The mining pool server can be located outside of China.

That will show you that the ASIC miners in China are greatlousy liars.

I am not so sure. They still have to get the hash of the transactions across the GFWC and the results then back to the server. The issue here is latency not bandwidth.

If mining is centralized in China doesn't that actually transfer the latency issue to non-Chinese miners? Resulting in possible more centralization. I recall reading such a thing.

Right. It is the minority that suffers from delayed block announcements, i.e. this is selfish mining.

Unless Chinese miners have a high latency between themselves within China?

Also I read the GFW was bandwidth limited. It is also latency limited and by how much? The Bitcoin block period is quite large so 100ms increase is probably fairly insignificant in the Poisson distribution.
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