Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1326. (Read 3314301 times)

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 19, 2016, 06:18:15 PM

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

Impressed for the fast recovery, even with the BTC wanting to rally in parallel. Still thinking in another 23k retest and recover to 26 as baseline

Congratulations on the call. Though it is worth mentioning that the drop was, alas, (again) done by one single entity.

nioc

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1008

ShapeShift is back but as of now only between btc and eth

TPTB_need_war

sr. member

Activity: 420

Merit: 262

As far as I can see, Monero has not solved the Tragedy of the Commons in Satoshi's design. I reiterated my rebuttal to ArticMine:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.14599446

Clarification:

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 07:13:56 AM

Security of a coin will be very tied to its transaction rate × average transaction size, i.e. velocity adoption and wealth of the velocity. The problem I have with the fixed size tail reward as compared to the design I am contemplating is that tail reward only captures those metrics indirectly through exchange price appreciation. I am not sure if the two models are equally powerful. I will need to think more deeply about it. My design also has an orthogonal tail reward.

Edit: some aspects of Monero's tail reward and block size adjustment algorithm are analogous to aspects of my design. There are some other things I didn't mention. I will need to really take the time to distil this into a carefully written white paper. So I would caution readers not to form any concrete conclusions (either for or against any design mentioned here) from these vague discussions.

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 19, 2016, 07:47:59 PM

Quote from: smooth on April 19, 2016, 07:16:09 PM

BTW, I would suggest that Tragedy of the Commons is an ineffective analogy for explaining whatever it is you are trying to explain because obviously-intelligent people such as ArticMine don't understand it. It may be that you are entirely correct, but if you want to communicate effectively you need a differently-worded explanation.

Agreed at the appropriate time. I deem it necessary to be vague since I am months (or moar!) away from implementing my design.

sandiman

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 501

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Trading xmr doesn't make sense due to the high slippage. Smaller amounts you can trade for sure but I am not sure if it is worth your time.

explorer

legendary

Activity: 2016

Merit: 1259

Quote from: Dotto on April 19, 2016, 09:05:15 PM

I love when the plan comes together

Quote from: Nxtblg on April 19, 2016, 07:52:05 PM

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

Impressed for the fast recovery, even with the BTC wanting to rally in parallel. Still thinking in another 23k retest and recover to 26 as baseline

A bit fast, for my liking. I sold the top rather well, but failed to buy the bottom. So I'll wait. If you don't have bids placed to get dumped into, its near impossible to buy any volume close to market on the way back up Embarrassed

opennux

full member

Activity: 231

Merit: 100

Quote from: rdnkjdi on April 19, 2016, 07:44:12 PM

I've had one bitcoin lent for 30 days and it's pulled an extra .1 btc. Hit the lending market right and you can get lucky. Wish I'd realized that six months ago and I would've minted a pretty nice sum.

Exactly! My first teeny loan of BTC went at 0.055%. As I write this, the low offer's 0.0483%. The rates are actually higher than the ones for Ethereum right now.

When you think about it, the Loan Market is a HODLer's dream! Not only do you get paid for HODLing, but also (if you're reasonably good at timing the market) it encourages you to buy-and-HODL more when the sentiment's gloomy. The worse the sentiment, the higher the loan rate (to short sellers). Add the theory of contrary opinion - "buy when the blood is running on the streets" - and you've got a sweet setup.

Lending out is not a "hodler's" dream. Having it on an exchange is not exactly hodling. But if you want to make some xmr like this more power to you.

vuduchyld

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: Dotto on April 19, 2016, 09:05:15 PM

I love when the plan comes together

Quote from: explorer on April 19, 2016, 06:52:46 PM

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

Impressed for the fast recovery, even with the BTC wanting to rally in parallel. Still thinking in another 23k retest and recover to 26 as baseline

Impressive and surprising, I'd say.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

...
There hasn't been much pruning on the human tree for a few hundred years. Like any exponential growth, however, global population is setting up for a hell of a crash. Just look at the charts Tongue

Presumably those with foresight will overall fare better than those without, which might take us one step closer to your goal. I could also argue that greed is (or is a result of) foresight, to some degree...

Unfortunately I see the opposite, those with short term goals tend to act with disregard of those outside their immediate circle's and of those in power I see a vast majority being on the whole average at best. Hell if a Moron like JWB can be president of the most powerful nation in the world what does that say? Not to mention every moron I know has hoards of offspring they cannot afford and every intelligent family I know has few children. If my albeit small scale observations are a representation of the whole this race is in for a real spiral down. Hell we cannot even get our own planet under control because of lack of foresight and those that rail against it for short term gains. There is even a widely accepted rallying call that no-one seems to understand is a long term death sentence. "Family First", by extrapolation that is translated as Everyone else last.

On topic: Short ETH buy XMR!

Dotto

legendary

Activity: 981

Merit: 1005

No maps for these territories

I love when the plan comes together

Quote from: smooth on April 19, 2016, 07:56:48 PM

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

Impressed for the fast recovery, even with the BTC wanting to rally in parallel. Still thinking in another 23k retest and recover to 26 as baseline

Nxtblg

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Nxtblg on April 19, 2016, 07:55:12 PM

Quote from: smooth on April 19, 2016, 07:54:36 PM

It goes up to 2% per day on occasion. Even higher on very, very rare occasion.

So it is like an old-fashioned call-money market. Thanks.

Almost exactly, but not callable by the lender. Repayable early by the borrower.

Yes, you're right; it's fixed-term on the lender's side and repayable at will by the buyer. So it's not exactly like a call loan, even though the suggested two-day term is short. Thanks for clarifying.

rdnkjdi

legendary

Activity: 1256

Merit: 1009

ehhhh the good news on that is that its evidence our coins will be worth more no?

explorer

legendary

Activity: 2016

Merit: 1259

Quote from: Nxtblg on April 19, 2016, 07:53:53 PM

Quote from: explorer on April 19, 2016, 07:45:15 PM

Quote from: vuduchyld on April 19, 2016, 07:29:19 PM

Quote from: Nxtblg on April 19, 2016, 07:55:12 PM

....Place your bets!

This is absolutely true. I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings. It's just such a thin market.

Actually, I'm getting seriously interested in (finally) buying some XMR to loan out on Polo's Loan Market.

Excited about 2% per year?

That's as high as it goes? I've been getting lots of loans at >0.03% daily with Factom, Ethereum and the big BTC. Are Monero's rates that much lower than those?

Its been pretty dismal for the last few weeks. Had some 1%ers prior to that, but the loan pool has more than tripled since then, and they're cutting each others throats for fractions of a penny. Sad. BTC has fared much better on polo, rarely going under 0.03%, and currently holding well into the .04 range (which is still a poor risk/reward, IMO). Available pool is about 1/2 of what it was a few weeks ago.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: smooth on April 19, 2016, 07:54:36 PM

It goes up to 2% per day on occasion. Even higher on very, very rare occasion.

So it is like an old-fashioned call-money market. Thanks.

Almost exactly, but not callable by the lender. Repayable early by the borrower.

Nxtblg

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1000

Quote from: smooth on April 19, 2016, 07:54:36 PM

It goes up to 2% per day on occasion. Even higher on very, very rare occasion.

So it is like an old-fashioned call-money market. Thanks.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: Nxtblg on April 19, 2016, 07:53:53 PM

Quote from: explorer on April 19, 2016, 07:45:15 PM

Quote from: vuduchyld on April 19, 2016, 07:29:19 PM

Quote from: explorer on April 19, 2016, 07:45:15 PM

....Place your bets!

This is absolutely true. I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings. It's just such a thin market.

Actually, I'm getting seriously interested in (finally) buying some XMR to loan out on Polo's Loan Market.

Excited about 2% per year?

That's as high as it goes? I've been getting lots of loans at >0.03% daily with Factom, Ethereum and the big BTC. Are Monero's rates that much lower than those?

It goes up to 2% per day on occasion. Even higher on very, very rare occasion.

Nxtblg

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1000

Quote from: vuduchyld on April 19, 2016, 07:29:19 PM

Quote from: rdnkjdi on April 19, 2016, 07:44:12 PM

....Place your bets!

This is absolutely true. I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings. It's just such a thin market.

Actually, I'm getting seriously interested in (finally) buying some XMR to loan out on Polo's Loan Market.

Excited about 2% per year?

That's as high as it goes? I've been getting lots of loans at >0.03% daily with Factom, Ethereum and the big BTC. Are Monero's rates that much lower than those?

Nxtblg

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1000

I've had one bitcoin lent for 30 days and it's pulled an extra .1 btc. Hit the lending market right and you can get lucky. Wish I'd realized that six months ago and I would've minted a pretty nice sum.

Exactly! My first teeny loan of BTC went at 0.055%. As I write this, the low offer's 0.0483%. The rates are actually higher than the ones for Ethereum right now.

When you think about it, the Loan Market is a HODLer's dream! Not only do you get paid for HODLing, but also (if you're reasonably good at timing the market) it encourages you to buy-and-HODL more when the sentiment's gloomy. The worse the sentiment, the higher the loan rate (to short sellers). Add the theory of contrary opinion - "buy when the blood is running on the streets" - and you've got a sweet setup.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: noobtrader on April 19, 2016, 01:07:22 PM

Quote from: ArticMine on April 19, 2016, 01:01:53 PM

Quote from: Nxtblg on April 19, 2016, 12:23:59 PM

Quote from: noobtrader on April 19, 2016, 03:46:16 AM

uh... u were missing the point, the point is that no one care to use Monero if there is no improvement aside from anonimity. so what if Monero has the ultimate best anonimity Huh

anonimity benefit scammer more than it benefit regular joe.

Uhhhh...actually, it benefits the black marketeer more than it benefits the average Joe. And this is where we enter a somewhat thorny zone, relating to the fate of the United States and other advanced economies.

Do you think that Donald Trump is a monster? Do you think his plan to build a wall for which "Mexico will pay for it" via confiscating remittances is monstrous? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for illegal immigrants to join a black market - a black market for remittances.

Do you think that the cashless society would be an Edward-Snowden nightmare? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for ordinary Joes to (partially) join a black market - a black market for regular goods and services that the future authorities have red-flagged. Those "regular goods and services" might be as innocuous as certain frowned-upon books. Look at the mileage that Bill Nye the Censor Guy has gotten for his proposal to jail "deniers."

It's speculative political questions like these which keep me interested in Monero. I could be wrong, and I admit that I'm a sucker for certain varieties of declinism. But all is not well in Pleasantville, and Monero - even if its use cases are solely confined to "real" black markets - can be seen as a kind of escape hatch for ordinary Joes if they need to hide what they do with their money.

The "black market" arguments assume that the only source of oppression is from governments. The current reality is that a very significant amount of censorship and oppression is from entrenched corporate power. Some examples:
1) WikiLeaks suffered an economic blockade that was orchestrated illegally by Visa, MasterCard, Paypal and a host of major banks. There nothing "black market" about using Monero do an end run around an illegal corporate economic blockade.
2) Apple used DRM to censor the teachings of the Dali Lama, and has used DRM to censor all sorts of free speech. It used DRM to censor Bitcoin from 2009 - 2014 and is currently using DRM to censor Monero.
3) Amazon used DRM to censor George Orwell's 1984.
4) The MPAA and host of corporate interests tried to push the SOPA Internet censorship bill through the US Congress. When that failed they turned to waging a clandestine war against free speech and civil liberties on the Internet by attacking Google using Attorney Generals at the state level. The ultimate irony is that this attack on freedom and civil liberties was exposed as a result of the Sony server hacks. These hacks have been attributed to the Government of North Korea. The fact that even one of the most oppressive governments on the planet can strike such a worldwide blow for freedom and civil liberties illustrates the true evil in the MPAA.
I can continue but there are many "white market" products and services that are currently censored by entrenched corporate power to provided a major market for Moenro .

as usual u all assume that monero will perform as advertised. even if it does, dozen of other more capable and popular coin are implementing anonymity too.
so, i still think that monero could be irrelevant in few years if there is no improvement.

See rebuttal above. Monero is privacy-centric yes, but its merits are a package that is not even close to be replicated by any other project.

explorer

legendary

Activity: 2016

Merit: 1259

Quote from: vuduchyld on April 19, 2016, 07:29:19 PM