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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1335. (Read 3313670 times)

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
April 17, 2016, 02:41:27 AM
Holy green shoots! 50K market buy.  Cool

Accumulation has started?  Shocked

Short closing, most likely.  Look at available loans  Shocked

Assuming this was a short coverage, I wonder who acts that violently?
By giving markets for the sellers the short covering would have resulted with higher profits.

Slower but steady will always result with higher amounts of profits rather than quick and sudden.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 17, 2016, 02:28:37 AM
Holy green shoots! 50K market buy.  Cool

Accumulation has started?  Shocked

Short closing, most likely.  Look at available loans  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
April 17, 2016, 02:16:41 AM
Holy green shoots! 50K market buy.  Cool

But but but I was told 0.001! Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
April 17, 2016, 01:29:41 AM
Holy green shoots! 50K market buy.  Cool

Accumulation has started?  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 16, 2016, 11:46:12 PM
Holy green shoots! 50K market buy.  Cool
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
April 16, 2016, 10:14:47 PM

Didn't you say any topic title with a question mark means NO? Tongue

Reading thread now.

That's a fair conclusion here Smiley

There are some potential future issues but it is hardly REKT, for now at least.

In terms of quantum-resistance we have bigger problems to worry about (and so does Zcash)

This is a non-issue as the PoW can be forked easily. 

That's true, as long as you have sufficient advance warning.
member
Activity: 109
Merit: 10
April 16, 2016, 09:45:53 PM

Didn't you say any topic title with a question mark means NO? Tongue

Reading thread now.

That's a fair conclusion here Smiley

There are some potential future issues but it is hardly REKT, for now at least.

In terms of quantum-resistance we have bigger problems to worry about (and so does Zcash)

This is a non-issue as the PoW can be forked easily.  If the current NIST recommended encryption curves and algorithms are broken with quantum computing... well, yes, we have bigger issues as smooth points out.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
April 16, 2016, 06:53:22 PM

Didn't you say any topic title with a question mark means NO? Tongue

Reading thread now.

That's a fair conclusion here Smiley

There are some potential future issues but it is hardly REKT, for now at least.

In terms of quantum-resistance we have bigger problems to worry about (and so does Zcash)
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
April 16, 2016, 06:52:03 PM

Didn't you say any topic title with a question mark means NO? Tongue

Reading thread now.

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
April 16, 2016, 04:23:41 PM
then perhaps orders-of-magnitude more electrically efficient, since the electric consumption will be primarily in the computation and not in the memory. And computation can be radically optimized on an ASIC.

As I predicted when I wrote in the Monero thread about this the other day, it appears the white paper didn't consider electricity as the most important factor. Duh.

The thing with memory hardened vs computationally bound is, on a card like an r9 290, you could get something like 175w power use for something not memory hardened (keccak), while on a memory hardened algo that's also obviously using lots of computation (any scrypt type derivative), power use would be through the roof at something like 250w+.  GPUs seem very power inefficient in terms of dealing with memory configuration parlor tricks, so if they ever do get implemented in ASICs, the power consumption advantage is always enormous.

Scrypt is not memory bound on GPUs. That is precisely the problem. Using the lookup gap technique it became possible for scrypt's (reduced) scratchpad to fit in local memory and not require scratchpad access on every iteration, so it becomes highly parallel and somewhat CPU bound.

Allegedly the equihash algorithm is provably resistant to such tricks. Still, it does have a compute component, and that could potentially be made more power efficient. Possibly the memory access pattern could also be exploited, since it is (I think) not necessarily random like with a cryptographic scratchpad-type algorithm.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
April 16, 2016, 04:09:30 PM
then perhaps orders-of-magnitude more electrically efficient, since the electric consumption will be primarily in the computation and not in the memory. And computation can be radically optimized on an ASIC.

As I predicted when I wrote in the Monero thread about this the other day, it appears the white paper didn't consider electricity as the most important factor. Duh.

The thing with memory hardened vs computationally bound is, on a card like an r9 290, you could get something like 175w power use for something not memory hardened (keccak), while on a memory hardened algo that's also obviously using lots of computation (any scrypt type derivative), power use would be through the roof at something like 250w+.  GPUs seem very power inefficient in terms of dealing with memory configuration parlor tricks, so if they ever do get implemented in ASICs, the power consumption advantage is always enormous.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
April 16, 2016, 04:04:17 PM
Sooo, if anyone thinks that we are eventually going back under 0.002, and antimoneroists? are back posting in the tread, does that means that we are about to rally???


I am just waiting for Herp to come back and give the buy signal.

Probably everybody is right.  Sometime in the next 4-6 weeks, I'd suspect we are likely to go up above .0027 or .0028 (which would be a significant jump from here) and ALSO quite possibly below .002. 
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
April 16, 2016, 03:40:37 PM
We can't always assume that history will repeat, but if we look at the previous two bubbles the same thing has happened. First altcoins suffer really bad while BTC rallies. Altcoins are reaching new lows and BTC new highs. Then once the BTC rally is getting out of control altcoins starts going up. So, if your argument against the price going lower because LTC went to $48 is going to be logically consistent you will need to expect a significant crash in XMR, perhaps in the lower 0.001x. THEN a pump to something like 0.05.

If you're a long-term-oriented fellow and want to put some BTC behind the above scenario, an interesting way to do so is to buy some XMR @ Polo and lend it out on the Lending market. I'm doing exactly that with the Factom Factoids I've got.

It's a fascinating market because the loan rates are so volatile. As I write this, the low offer on the Factom market is 0.0049% and yet I've got several loans (with me as the creditor) at rates ranging from 0.0025% to 0.0475%. I ain't getting rich by doing this - three of my seven loans are teeny in terms of principal and ~25% of my Factoids are unborrowed - but it's a low-risk way to build up some coins that takes advantage of a volatile but uptrending market. As the old saying has it: if you're in a boom town and buying gold pans, you'll likely go broke; if you're in a boom town and selling gold pans, you'll likely prosper.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
April 16, 2016, 03:29:01 PM
Bullish indicator: look at all the Monero trashing threads on page 1 of Altcoin Discussion.

I love it!

Heh! Welcome to the world of contrary-opinion trading. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
April 16, 2016, 03:27:18 PM
No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need.
Would you mind making each future market prediction in a binary form (which can be objectively judged as true or false by a specified date) along with a specific numeric probability estimate (which you can subsequently update any time)?

Probabilistic predictions are okay as long as you keep a comprehensive list of all of them. You can then test how many of the "80%" predictions are satisfied relative to the ideal 80%.

Now that you mention it, I'm surprised that someone hasn't done that with Gallup's huge swath of polls.
legendary
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1001
getmonero.org
April 16, 2016, 03:07:37 PM
Sooo, if anyone thinks that we are eventually going back under 0.002, and antimoneroists? are back posting in the tread, does that means that we are about to rally???


I am just waiting for Herp to come back and give the buy signal.
hero member
Activity: 870
Merit: 585
April 16, 2016, 02:31:32 PM
I've never quite understood what's in it for the market makers who provide liquidity. How profitable is it to provide liquidity? How risky is it? Does it entail spending time and energy staring at tickers and charts, or just running a bot? Can such bots be exploited by other market makers? Huh
If you use limit orders, you are a liquidity provider.  And if you can maintain your own liquidity (don't get in a bind) while doing so, you will most likely make money.  It's pretty simple in concept, not necessarily easy.
legendary
Activity: 1552
Merit: 1047
April 16, 2016, 01:41:20 PM
What is funny is a) you felt my neutral post was aimed at you and b) claiming I am attacking you. Read my post again and calm down. Way to prove a point though. Oh and for the record I think my average buy in for monero is probably well below where you sold yours as this coin has a really strange oscillating price which stung some early entrants.. Smiley
You've been consistently attacking people who has been bearish for the last couple of weeks. Not just me. This was just one of your many posts I decided to quote.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 262
April 16, 2016, 12:58:20 PM
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
April 16, 2016, 12:54:50 PM
Any opinions on if there is a bitcoin pump around the halving if Monero will be pegged to bitcoin or fiat?

If BTC rally all alts will lose value compared to BTC. After few weeks when new people come in crypto most alts will start getting value back or even improve it.

Pretty much agree. Also I really find almost impossible the halving pump to happen. When everyone expects something it doesn´t happen.

Edit: It seems we all agree on that topic... maybe we are groupthinking too much??
If you count everybody who says that "everybody expects bitcoin to pump so it won't happen" there's actually quite a few. So not everybody expect bitcoin to pump and that's why it will happen Wink But maybe the pump won't be as big... In any case as long as bitcoin goes up now I think XMR is headed sub 0.002 again.



So easy to spot those who have sold and are egging others on to do so.

The truth is no one here knows what will happen if btc bubbles again. Last time it happened in 2013 litecoin hit 45$.

If you like monero for it's merits then it is up to you to decide whether you should buy any. Asking for advice on here is not likely to achieve anything other than revealing a few vocal posters current positions.
On November 17th LTC was worth $4. At that time BTC had already had a significant rally up to around $460. $4/460 = 0.0087 BTC/LTC. Now that's a pretty low rate, in fact LTC didn't fall much further that year (I believe the bottom was in the 0.007x area).

All altcoins got slaughter until all of sudden, on 18th and forward they started pumping. I know who played a great part in the LTC pump of 2013 and you can read my observations here.

We can't always assume that history will repeat, but if we look at the previous two bubbles the same thing has happened. First altcoins suffer really bad while BTC rallies. Altcoins are reaching new lows and BTC new highs. Then once the BTC rally is getting out of control altcoins starts going up. So, if your argument against the price going lower because LTC went to $48 is going to be logically consistent you will need to expect a significant crash in XMR, perhaps in the lower 0.001x. THEN a pump to something like 0.05.

It's true, nobody really knows what will happen, but this is a speculation topic. I speculate that XMR will be dropping sub 0.002. The reasons why:
1. The violent crash we had breaking all support and taking most by surprise.
2. BTC rally
3. ETH is crashing and I think ETH dragged monero up with it. Now it's going to drag us down.

My theory fails if #2 or #3 changes. I believe I am allowed to voice my opinion regarding the price even if it's negative. Why do you not attack people who think the price is going to $1000 soon? If you're going to be logical consistent with your attacks, you should also attack those who currently hold monero and are talking their book, but in a bullish way.

I suspect that you are emotionally invested, probably in a loss, and attack me because I'm not bullish (short-term). If this topic is going to anything but a circlejerk, opinions from both sides of the table should be accepted.

What is funny is a) you felt my neutral post was aimed at you and b) claiming I am attacking you. Read my post again and calm down. Way to prove a point though. Oh and for the record I think my average buy in for monero is probably well below where you sold yours as this coin has a really strange oscillating price which stung some early entrants.. Smiley
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