Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1343. (Read 3313670 times)

I definitely think that is relevant. The problem is that the exchange seems to have veered off into personalities and angels-on-the-head-of-a-pin topics such as the definition of the term 'free market'. People can discuss what they want (some people love to argue over the definitions of words), but that stuff is just clutter here.

On the topic of botnets, this philosophical exchange ignores that fact that no one has contested my claim that the 1+ million or so bot nodes that would needed to soak up the Monero hash rate don't exist, nor are botnets driving the difficulty to a level where non-botnets can't mine profitably. Therefore something is discouraging botnets from mining Monero. The relevance to speculation might be asking what that is causing that and whether it will change in the future.

Unless we can answer that question the topic of botnets may not be all that relevant to Monero after all.

For example.

Hypothesis: Most or all of the botnets in the world are controlled by the same entity or group. They are indeed mining Monero but limiting their hash rate (not competing with each other) to maintain profitability even at the cost of lower coin output.

His thread his rules.

I'm not reading this thread 24/7 and I haven't read the entire exchange. The one I deleted was near the end, so I saw it.

Crowdsourcing of moderation is welcome. I you see a post that violates the rules, send me the link

It's about risk. There are traders that have 95% and there are traders that have 20% winning rate - winning % is useless parameter as is your reply.

Can the moderators start banning people who flame please? It really detracts from the thread and makes the entire XMR community look bad. Please can the discussion continue without people being horrible.

I missed this post. So last reply here.

When I started to realize I had the ability to identify key inflection points and if I didn't push myself to find them and waited until they just were obvious to me, i.e. waited for my opportunities, then I realized I would need to have my funds and assets positioned so that I could take advantage of these rare moments of insight. But I have never been in  a position since that realization, to be organized that way. I live in the wrong country. I don't have a permanent address in the USA. I don't have a USA driver's license or utility bill, etc..

For example, when I was almost ready to short BTC from $320 down this past summer, I was wary not only because I have no experience with Bitfinex, but also because their KYC terms are not explicit enough. I might even up with a frozen account.

My life is far too behind schedule even to keep up with basic things of life such as taking a shower more than once a month. How in the hell could I possibly manage speculating properly. I am just being realistic.

The money I have is for paying bills so I can code.

And commenting here is one of the stupidest things I've ever done.

And also winning by speculating feels to me like I cheated my own life (my reason for wanting to do it recently was just desperation about my ill health and needing more money to make some big change). I am so talented as a programmer and creator, then I will take away time from that to go take some other speculator's money. Seems to not be my purpose in life, even though I guess it does provide liquidity to the market. I'd feel much better about myself creating something that helped so many people than just being a liquidity cog in a financial wheel. To imagine myself spending all my days in a thread like this just staring at bid/ask walls would feel to me as though I wasted my talent. So I guess my heart was never in the execution side of it. I enjoyed the analysis, because I love mental challenges and conceptual ideas. The execution feels like I am only a bean counter or a robot. I got interested in silver for ideological reasons. The getting rich part was just a way to hold me until my next big project success. It wasn't in my mind the path for my wealth. The path for my wealth has always been what I can create, not speculate. Although during creation I must also speculate on market needs and such, I apply a rational approach to that.

In short, I don't belong here in this thread. You all are not my people. We don't have the same interests and outlook on what we are prioritizing in our lives. You guys (or at least most of the vocal ones) are all idolizing money.

I (now) realize you weren't slandering me. Thanks.

There is no such thing as a free market except the black market. All other markets involves some kind of government regulation. If you need to run a company you already have a barrier to entry. In a truly free market you do not need to run a company, pay taxes or deliver income receipt to the government. There is no such thing as asking for permission in a free market.

There's an old Chinese saying; "No one rules if no one obeys". There's a whole lot of truth to that. A "black market" would be the definition of a free market: A market with zero government intervention. Because if the laws are ignored they do not apply. Unfortunately there's not enough people who ignore the law, so those currently operating in the free market risks getting jailed as you said. I wouldn't say it ceases to be a free market, only that it's under attack.

If anything we need to draw the conclusion that there is no such thing as a free market.

I tend to disagree here, as governments sometimes use blackmarkets to fund activities (such as arms deals for the enemy of my enemy, interaction with covert ops and drug money, intelligence and data for hire, ect.), so in a certain respect the government is beholden for the black markets survival to increase their black ops power, so it is really much more mutual in many cases than generally perceived and a delicate balance between the powers that be and the powers that be hidden--you could argue that a large government could crack down, but since these markets are mostly international, their reach and willingness to forgo the benefits would be tested. And yes, this doesn't mean it's free for everyone, but it also means that normal regulatory powers aren't usually the powers at play, but crime syndicates keeping the crooks in line--that's about as free as a market can get.

So he calls people he disagrees with "'tards" and you don't delete his posts? My post was way less offensive. You should apply your moderation powers equally.

smoothie replied before you wrote your post:


Hypocrisy is not meritocracy. It is even worse in that it is self-defeating.

Deleted because personal attacks are not allowed.

I'm asking everyone involved in this long back and forth to step back and return to the thread when you are able to discuss specifically Monero Speculation. If you would like to continue the discussion elsewhere you are welcome to post (only) a forwarding link here.

In terms of price, once one unwinds the price and supply effects of the masternode interest scheme (possibly combined with the effects of concentrated illiquid holdings), the two are very close to parity. In terms of equivalently-adjusted market cap, XMR's is roughly 1.5 times higher. That is consistent with the comparison you get if you use other objective coin evaluation metrics independent of market cap.

I'll leave how I derived these numbers as an exercise to the reader for now with the hint that it is almost entirely objective.

I am convinced you don't even read my posts. I already explained the government has no control. Botnet farmers and victims are too numerous and too decentralized.

Now please let me recluse myself from this experience of trying to pull a pubic hair out of my ass via my throat pathway. I've learned my lesson never to venture into this (smells) funny corner of the internet again.

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Quoted for posterity. It usually helps to triangularize to establish a true bearing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market


When you have to personally risk going to jail for participating in a market due to government intervention by definition it ceases to be "free market".  Govt is exercising their power monopoly to make it no longer a free market.

Couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes black markets are the only free market.

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Note how he didn't reply to my claim that he was lying. How convenient.

Seems I am not wanted in this nonsense thread, so I will recluse myself.

As if the discussion of botnets and CPU mining is irrelevant to speculating on Monero's future, given Monero is the only real CPU mined coin of significance.  If the hypocrisy in this thread was not so obviously just ego stroker addiction I might want to cry.

Adios 'tards (not meant towards any specific person and presumably those who it is directed are oblivious any way since it is clear they never believed in meritocracy).

This was not a moral thing.  In some countries both drugs and botnets are effectively legal.  In most they are outlawed which makes them a black market.  Not a free market.  

Morally / personally I don't have a personal issue with botnets or drug dealers.  

But both are black markets.

Blackmarket != free market.  We can agree to disagree and move on.

@owlcatz likewise.

Strange. I only have one user on ignore, and it all seems fine to me.

Too much noise on this thread.

Price double bounced off 0.002. Some buying pressure here.

There is no free market price discovery in bots eh. How come there already is one?


Where are the 1000s of prosecutions of botnet farmers? The ones who farmed 10,000 bots and such. All I see are headline cases. Prosecutions in Russia, Pakistan, Nigeria, etc?

The government can't control this. It is too porous. There is no social contract. It is a defacto laissez-faire free market.

Victims are in a free market. You know how nature is. Adapt or lose.

Pray tell me how to form a social contract on preventing and not allowing anyone to harvest/use/rent botnets?

How many victims of botnets had their brain chemically altered for potentially the rest of their life? Equating this morally (social contract priority) to drug dealing is rational?

Cheap electricity (even the free variant obtained with corruption) is sourced from an oligarchy. Where is the oligarchy in sourcing botnets and cooperative victims? The botnet market is efficient and highly decentralized.

What is the moral hazard of rewarding victims for being irresponsible?

When you get every single point wrong, one has to wonder.