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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1410. (Read 3314669 times)

legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
March 26, 2016, 07:03:37 PM
I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.

As RingCT approaches I think volume has the potential to go much higher.  I have looked at ZCash very closely and still find Monero much more attractive. If a reasonable percentage of the people hearing about ZCash this summer prior to its release perform due diligence, I think a lot of new interest in Monero will result.

So we won't count on any new interest from that quarter.

Volume throughout cryptoland has been through the roof this year.  Monero awoke from its slumber with the Hydrogen Helix release, but didn't launch until early February when everything started to explode.  Awesome timing, devs.  0.9 has made it so much easier to get involved.  So many things coming together in 2016.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
March 26, 2016, 07:01:28 PM
I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.

To be honest, and you know I am the biggest Monero maximalist out there, it looks like our vertical ascent may have over-extended itself a tad.  I think it's not unthinkable we may face a consolidation/correction period where we bounce off some support.  When people in the Polo troll box start saying things like 'the Monero scam pump is over! ha ha' then you know we are ready to resume launch.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 26, 2016, 06:58:24 PM
I have looked at ZCash very closely and still find Monero much more attractive.
I would be much gratified if you could share your specific reasons for that preference.
full member
Activity: 150
Merit: 102
March 26, 2016, 06:51:24 PM
I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.

As RingCT approaches I think volume has the potential to go much higher.  I have looked at ZCash very closely and still find Monero much more attractive. If a reasonable percentage of the people hearing about ZCash this summer prior to its release perform due diligence, I think a lot of new interest in Monero will result.

legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
March 26, 2016, 06:01:25 PM
I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 26, 2016, 05:45:39 PM
... good as long as there are also market makers who make sure there are always coins for sale if they get margin called, therefore I am very glad we have Aminorex. I wish there will be more people like him.  Cheesy
They make sure there will not be too much defaults.

My market making is pretty small-time, and if the current pace of rise keeps going past next week, I will stop trying to squeeze out alpha, and just hang on for dear beta, so don't count on me to indemnify your loans.

Seriously, this market is so one-sided that market-making a very tenuous proposition.  Every minute I am not all-in is another minute I risk a FOMU catastrophe.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
March 26, 2016, 05:39:52 PM

Demand is high, and supply has left the building.

Seems to be some supply, 300 btc to 434  and 675 btc to 500.  Ofc it will take more than that.

Just redeemed the deposit bottles I collected after people threw them away and bought a couple of lottery tickets for tonight's drawing with the proceeds.

I was thinking more along the lines of daily emission.  Current levels are less than half 2/3 of what they were last time price was at this level, and pretty much every other variable also favorable.  Overall supply is of course higher, but plenty are removed from the market once bought, and won't be seen again for some time.

edit- read it wrong
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
March 26, 2016, 05:30:16 PM

Demand is high, and supply has left the building.

Seems to be some supply, 300 btc to 434  and 675 btc to 500.  Ofc it will take more than that.

Just redeemed the deposit bottles I collected after people threw them away and bought a couple of lottery tickets for tonight's drawing with the proceeds.
legendary
Activity: 981
Merit: 1005
No maps for these territories
March 26, 2016, 05:26:57 PM
Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I had some out there at 0.105% that I took off of auto-renew.  Now there are more than 150,000 XMR offered with most of it under 0.1%.  

Not sure exactly what it means.  It might mean that nobody is borrowing to short, or that short positions are being closed.  That could take some of the springiness out of the run up.  I think it's NOT a great sign that there is an abundance of supply on the lending side.  

I suppose it could also mean that there is a ton of expectation for a move up.  Even that seems contra-style bearish to me.

Is there any bright side to an oversupply of lenders?

Who knows... I will say you have to have steel balls to short this. Could be whales offering free XMR to catch shorters, while Polo doesn´t disclose data in BFXdata style we can´t be sure.

I would be nice if the community starts to ask Polo for the data so we can have PoloData kind of site to gain a layer of analisys. Let´s ask it in twitter, facebook, trollboxes and here. If there is enought pressure they will accept
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
March 26, 2016, 05:19:16 PM
My investments will be worth more by then.

I'd advise to stay rational here, there is a large probability that they will be worth less. Both XMR and BTC have an extremely large drawdown.

But we are already quite low compared to where we will be  Grin Grin

Demand is high, and supply has left the building.
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
March 26, 2016, 05:07:11 PM
My investments will be worth more by then.

I'd advise to stay rational here, there is a large probability that they will be worth less. Both XMR and BTC have an extremely large drawdown.

But we are already quite low compared to where we will be  Grin Grin
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 26, 2016, 05:02:27 PM
I tried to ponder all the reasons why I should sell Monero now. Heck, I did not find even one legitimate reason. Even the mere argument "we are now at the peak of 2015" feels pretty weak as the fundamentals are completely different from one year ago. Also the liquidity is on completely other level not to mention the trading volumes.
I could be wrong but I have a feeling Monero will rise quite high.... Anyway I am not even thinking to sell my Moneros because of a simple reason: I have no other use for that money.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
March 26, 2016, 04:57:06 PM
In retrospect, whenever I start telling other people about how well I'm doing on X cryptocurrency, that's historically been the best time to sell all and walk away for awhile.

But I really haven't had the urge to do that yet, so I'm not selling anything.  Grin

The beauty of Monero is if it goes back down, I get to acquire more cheaply.  The fundamentals are still strong and the next 24 months are critical.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 26, 2016, 03:55:15 PM
Yes I got the point - time to readjust the lending rates I guess.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
March 26, 2016, 03:53:29 PM
...

The only issue I have with the whole lending scenario is COUNTER-PARTY-RISK. I guess if you don't believe Polo will ever get hacked or close down. Then you're good.

The other side of the coin is usually what I pay attention to when looking at any exchange or "other party".

There is also the risk that the short seller's equity does not cover the closed position is a fast rising market. Take a look at DASH/XMR currently the most liquid of the XMR markets to see what I mean. https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash

Yeah. Good point. It still falls under the counter-party-risk category.

legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
March 26, 2016, 03:51:27 PM
...

The only issue I have with the whole lending scenario is COUNTER-PARTY-RISK. I guess if you don't believe Polo will ever get hacked or close down. Then you're good.

The other side of the coin is usually what I pay attention to when looking at any exchange or "other party".

There is also the risk that the short seller's equity does not cover the closed position is a fast rising market. Take a look at DASH/XMR currently the most liquid of the XMR markets to see what I mean. https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash

Edit: A Monero short that uses Dash as collateral could get really scary very fast. By the way the reverse, a Dash short that uses Monero as collateral, can also get really scary very fast.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
March 26, 2016, 03:41:43 PM
If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending.  I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.  
  
Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders?  What should I look for in offering an average loan?  Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm?  Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up?  Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

Im way small fish and less expert than you, so I don´t have a sound strategie to offer you but... don´t you worry about your moneros not been returned back?. Since I learned that the leans are not 100% guarateed I just reduced this risk to the max... I offer some BTC at extortion rates from time to time, but I sleep better when they are under my control (well... Polo control)

The only issue I have with the whole lending scenario is COUNTER-PARTY-RISK. I guess if you don't believe Polo will ever get hacked or close down. Then you're good.

The other side of the coin is usually what I pay attention to when looking at any exchange or "other party".
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
March 26, 2016, 03:39:04 PM
Any idea why lending got so lucrative a few days ago and what conditions might make it so lucrative again?

Greed.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
March 26, 2016, 03:36:15 PM
If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending.  I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.  
  
Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders?  What should I look for in offering an average loan?  Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm?  Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up?  Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

Perhaps you should seek professional advice from a financial advisor.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
March 26, 2016, 03:33:02 PM
Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?


I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting.  If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees.  I was pretty surprised to be so wrong.

But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means!  Why so many willing lenders with no takers?  I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period?

0.1% x 2 days x 1000 XMR less 15% fee would be more like 1.7 XMR.   nothing to get too excited about today.

Right, I skipped a zero there, but that's what I was expecting, yet I had something like 80 more XMR than what I thought I had on Polo.  Not sure what's up.  Maybe I had an open order for a buy that I'd forgotten about, but that would be really rare. 

I dunno.  I'm tired today.  Brain not working well, and I've been deeply immersed in some spreadsheets for a consulting project I'm doing. 

80 more is so much better than 80 fewer.  Just take it and smile Wink
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