[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1411.

vuduchyld

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: explorer on March 26, 2016, 03:01:00 PM

Quote from: vuduchyld on March 26, 2016, 02:38:59 PM

Quote from: americanpegasus on March 26, 2016, 02:29:07 PM

Quote from: vuduchyld on March 26, 2016, 02:20:28 PM

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting. If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees. I was pretty surprised to be so wrong.

But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means! Why so many willing lenders with no takers? I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period?

0.1% x 2 days x 1000 XMR less 15% fee would be more like 1.7 XMR. nothing to get too excited about today.

Right, I skipped a zero there, but that's what I was expecting, yet I had something like 80 more XMR than what I thought I had on Polo. Not sure what's up. Maybe I had an open order for a buy that I'd forgotten about, but that would be really rare.

I dunno. I'm tired today. Brain not working well, and I've been deeply immersed in some spreadsheets for a consulting project I'm doing.

explorer

legendary

Activity: 2016

Merit: 1259

Quote from: vuduchyld on March 26, 2016, 02:38:59 PM

Quote from: americanpegasus on March 26, 2016, 02:29:07 PM

Quote from: vuduchyld on March 26, 2016, 02:20:28 PM

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting. If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees. I was pretty surprised to be so wrong.

But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means! Why so many willing lenders with no takers? I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period?

0.1% x 2 days x 1000 XMR less 15% fee would be more like 1.7 XMR. nothing to get too excited about today.

saddambitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1004

In retrospect, whenever I start telling other people about how well I'm doing on X cryptocurrency, that's historically been the best time to sell all and walk away for awhile.

But I really haven't had the urge to do that yet, so I'm not selling anything. Grin

vuduchyld

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: americanpegasus on March 26, 2016, 02:29:07 PM

Quote from: vuduchyld on March 26, 2016, 02:20:28 PM

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting. If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees. I was pretty surprised to be so wrong.

But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means! Why so many willing lenders with no takers? I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period?

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: vuduchyld on March 26, 2016, 02:20:28 PM

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I had some out there at 0.105% that I took off of auto-renew. Now there are more than 150,000 XMR offered with most of it under 0.1%.

Not sure exactly what it means. It might mean that nobody is borrowing to short, or that short positions are being closed. That could take some of the springiness out of the run up. I think it's NOT a great sign that there is an abundance of supply on the lending side.

I suppose it could also mean that there is a ton of expectation for a move up. Even that seems contra-style bearish to me.

Is there any bright side to an oversupply of lenders?

Well, the bids are quite high, around 1200 btc. Assuming they are all legitimate bids the dump basically need to be done by a whale (and not a pocket whale but a real Humpback whale https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFa3x13d5Co ).

I do not know about others but I have been succesfully lent all my Moneros. The rates have been dropping due to under cutting each other.
Sure during the consolidation the loans tend to be repaid at least partially and when the price starts to rise, the loans will be taken.... To supply of Moneros at low rates is a sign that there has not been a green candle for a while and some shorts are being closed.
Just a quick reminder, the short at 0.900 % is still open and collecting some serious coins now.

americanpegasus

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 504

Quote from: vuduchyld on March 26, 2016, 02:20:28 PM

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

vuduchyld

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I had some out there at 0.105% that I took off of auto-renew. Now there are more than 150,000 XMR offered with most of it under 0.1%.

Not sure exactly what it means. It might mean that nobody is borrowing to short, or that short positions are being closed. That could take some of the springiness out of the run up. I think it's NOT a great sign that there is an abundance of supply on the lending side.

I suppose it could also mean that there is a ton of expectation for a move up. Even that seems contra-style bearish to me.

Is there any bright side to an oversupply of lenders?

wpalczynski

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Double top at ~ 004129, looks like 0043 will be a little bit of a fight.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: americanpegasus on March 26, 2016, 11:51:24 AM

My investments will be worth more by then.

I'd advise to stay rational here, there is a large probability that they will be worth less. Both XMR and BTC have an extremely large drawdown.

r0ach

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1000

Quote from: americanpegasus on March 26, 2016, 11:51:24 AM

I went car shopping yesterday, and ended up pitching Monero to a couple of car salesmen. Grin

I can't say I am surprised.

Johnny Mnemonic

hero member

Activity: 795

Merit: 514

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on March 26, 2016, 02:50:15 AM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on March 25, 2016, 07:46:42 PM

Of course I can't predict how Bitcoin might fail, which is why I wouldn't choose a coin that's 95% identical to serve as a backup. And yes, considering how similar they are, I will presume that any theoretical failure in Bitcoin will also affect LTC.

Your presumption is empirically denied. I even mentioned it and you quoted it, but then glossed right over it in the rush to confirm and reiterate your bias. I'll try bolding it; maybe that will help.

I saw your comment. A chain fork (and resulting market behavior) is not evidence that LTC will withstand a technological failure that Bitcoin cannot.

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on March 26, 2016, 02:50:15 AM

For many coins, suitability for backup is their most important merit. You can't commend on them separately.

Litecoin has on occasion already provided stability (ie acted as a suitable backup) when Bitcoin threatened/suffered catastrophic consensus failure, and the markets responded accordingly. But we've never seen them both experience simultaneous downtime. That scenario only exists in your personal Imaginationland.

And hopefully it will stay in my imaginationland Cheesy

but I'm not going to assume it can't happen.

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on March 26, 2016, 02:50:15 AM

Regardless of all that, your quest for a suitable Bitcoin backup is now ended. Monero shares none of Bitcoin's code, uses a different PoW, and doesn't depend on Secp256k1. Cool

Agreed! Except XMR doesn't have a transparent ledger, so it wouldn't be a perfect drop-in replacement for Bitcoin in my hypothetical black swan scenario. I like smooths idea of an XMR clone with ring sigs stripped out.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: americanpegasus on March 26, 2016, 11:51:24 AM

I went car shopping yesterday, and ended up pitching Monero to a couple of car salesmen. Grin

"Look, I could buy this car cash. But I won't. If you can't or won't give me a good interest rate, I'll just walk and come back and see the 2017 models later this year. My investments will be worth more by then anyway."

"Yes, but investments go both ways. Don't you want to spread out your money some? How much of a down payment can you swing?"

"Not this one. Do you know what it's done in four months? Quadrupled. I would rather hold any down payment in the asset, and come back later this year when it's a whole car."

"What do you mean quadrupled? What does that?"

"Well, it's kind of secret at the moment. I'll tell you this though: The last time I made a downpayment on a car was 2010 when this thing called Bitcoin was like 25 cents each..."

Then I usually offer to write down a bunch of words on a post-it note and let them Google them on their own. "bitcoin (2008), cryptocurrency, blockchain, monero (2014), cryptonote, coinbase, poloniex" and tell them if they want to know more they can always call me.

That's the way to go man.
And you will end get paid when you offer them OTC deal with zero slippage but let's say, 20 % premium and then refill it slowly from the dumps.

americanpegasus

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 504

I went car shopping yesterday, and ended up pitching Monero to a couple of car salesmen. Grin

"Look, I could buy this car cash. But I won't. If you can't or won't give me a good interest rate, I'll just walk and come back and see the 2017 models later this year. My investments will be worth more by then anyway."

"Yes, but investments go both ways. Don't you want to spread out your money some? How much of a down payment can you swing?"

"Not this one. Do you know what it's done in four months? Quadrupled. I would rather hold any down payment in the asset, and come back later this year when it's a whole car."

"What do you mean quadrupled? What does that?"

"Well, it's kind of secret at the moment. I'll tell you this though: The last time I made a downpayment on a car was 2010 when this thing called Bitcoin was like 25 cents each..."

Then I usually offer to write down a bunch of words on a post-it note and let them Google them on their own. "bitcoin (2008), cryptocurrency, blockchain, monero (2014), cryptonote, coinbase, poloniex" and tell them if they want to know more they can always call me.

papa_lazzarou

hero member

Activity: 649

Merit: 500

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 26, 2016, 07:50:15 AM

Mixin = 0 transactions down to 0.73 over the last 24 hours:

http://moneroblocks.info/stats

Bear in mind that mixin = 0 transactions are allowed as long as they contain one dust input.

That data was for the last 48H because I was considering 1440 blocks as a DAY.

The stats are now updated and using timestamp instead.
This is not perfect either but it should be close enough.

http://moneroblocks.info/stats

magico

newbie

Activity: 41

Merit: 0

Quote from: saddambitcoin on March 26, 2016, 09:05:53 AM

From my understanding, it is to allow people with lots of dust amounts to "sweep_dust" (sweep_dust is transfer 0 to your own wallet) without incurring *huge* fees that would come with a larger mixin.

edit: by huge fees i mean fees that exceed the sum of the dust amount being sent

In my case 0.9.3 offers me sweeping of 0.2737* dust for a total fee of 0.2 Grin

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: aminorex on March 26, 2016, 09:41:00 AM

Higher low, higher high criterion has been met. Bullish. Level-up to 420 activating.

Ouch.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Higher low, higher high criterion has been met. Bullish. Level-up to 420 activating.

saddambitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1004

From my understanding, it is to allow people with lots of dust amounts to "sweep_dust" (sweep_dust is transfer 0 to your own wallet) without incurring *huge* fees that would come with a larger mixin.

edit: by huge fees i mean fees that exceed the sum of the dust amount being sent

americanpegasus

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 504

Quote from: Dotto on March 26, 2016, 08:29:39 AM

By the way, if you hadn´t seen "The big short" film you may see ASAP. Hint: Bullish as fuck

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/

This was the movie that really got my wife to understand the value proposition of Monero, in a roundabout way. She put some of her money in because I was so excited about it, and she kind of understood it. Near the end though she had an epiphany when everyone who had previously laughed at the credit default swaps were now desperately trying to hedge with them. I told her, "See? You own like 1/5,000th of what will eventually become the premier private financial network on Earth. No one thinks much of it now because they are sheep - but there will come a day when people are banging on the door and begging to get in at ANY price."

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 26, 2016, 07:50:15 AM

Mixin = 0 transactions down to 0.73 over the last 24 hours:

http://moneroblocks.info/stats

Bear in mind that mixin = 0 transactions are allowed as long as they contain one dust input.

Wait, what? Please explain further. I thought we had disbarred all these from the network. Why are they allowed with a dust input?

explorer

legendary

Activity: 2016

Merit: 1259

Quote from: inca on March 26, 2016, 08:22:15 AM

Quote from: Dotto on March 26, 2016, 07:59:53 AM

Quote from: americanpegasus on March 26, 2016, 02:00:37 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 26, 2016, 01:37:11 AM

If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending. I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.

Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders? What should I look for in offering an average loan? Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm? Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up? Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

Im way small fish and less expert than you, so I don´t have a sound strategie to offer you but... don´t you worry about your moneros not been returned back?. Since I learned that the leans are not 100% guarateed I just reduced this risk to the max... I offer some BTC at exhorbitant rates from time to time, but I sleep better when they are under my control (well... Polo control)

It is a risk that short positions lent out will not be returned. But once an exchange allows this to happen it loses it's reputation and customers.

Let's see how monero does in the next few months as the bitcoin halving approaches. The fairytale ending to this year would be a halving pump to 750-1200 with a 10x rise in monero. I am fairly sure this will not happen

.

3x XBT compounded with 10X XMR from here would likely induce me to redistribute a small percentage of my moneroj, and increase market making activity. I think if XBT were to ATH it would overshoot substantially though. If it really starts to move, 6-10X wouldn't surprise me. XMR is a wild card. Certainly there is room for that kind of growth. Look at the valuations of shitcoins. The market will bear an impressive amount once FOMO kicks in. Better to maintain a controlled pace though, rather than shoot over the moon only to crash back to earth, wrecking little people late to the party. Higher XMR valuation should mean accelerated development (donations are worth more) for a nice effect. Waiting and seeing

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1411. (Read 3314669 times)