[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1405.

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: r0ach on March 27, 2016, 11:29:55 PM

Quote from: ArticMine on March 27, 2016, 10:20:45 PM

Bitcoin cannot scale, until the fixed blocksize issue is fixed.

There is no fixed block size issue because by most people's estimations, something like the relay network is required for over 500k-ish blocks. Because there is currently no alternative to the relay network that isn't opt-in, this just makes it a cartel creation type of tool to exclude various adversaries from interacting with the network at all.

What do you expect, Monero is just gonna scale to 100mb blocks with no side effects? Monero does not solve Bitcoin scalability issues. There really is no huge scalability problem in the first place. I estimate around 8MB blocks is what is needed to have $10kish transactions and higher valid for on-chain use as a major world currency. That's just within capability of catching mainstream consumer support.

I see crypto currencies today are where credit cards were 60 years ago. I am sure many people in 1956 could not envision a credit card network processing 10s of thousands of transactions per second using punched cards and tabulating machines. They designed credit card and payment card business models around high value transactions where the retailer had very large margins. The dominant Credit Card networks of the day were Diner's Club and American Express. Who are the dominant Credit Card networks today?

Bitcoin is heading with the above model to becoming the Diner's Club of crypto currency, while Monero at least has a chance of becoming the VISA of crypto currency.

By the way 10K USD and above is the kind of money where the existing banking system actually starts to become very competitive when it comes to transferring money internationally.

smooth

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Quote from: r0ach on March 27, 2016, 11:29:55 PM

There is no fixed block size issue because by most people's estimations, something like the relay network is required for over 500k-ish blocks. Because there is currently no alternative to the relay network that isn't opt-in, this just makes it a cartel creation type of tool to exclude various adversaries from interacting with the network at all.

Thin blocks are a reasonable ad-hoc alternative to the relay network. It is a bit less efficient but only by a small factor (and probably not even that if further optimized). Works just fine for Monero too.

Monero also doesn't suffer from many of the script-related scaling bottlenecks in Bitcoin (or worse Ethereum), because it isn't trying to programmable money or a world computer and is focused on doing one thing and doing it well (A pays B). That said, Monero will probably have some sort of programmability at some point, when it is understood how to add this programability as an optional enhancement over the optimized base function in a scalable and suitably-private manner. (The recent update on Ring Multisig being one small step in that direction.)

r0ach

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Quote from: ArticMine on March 27, 2016, 10:20:45 PM

Bitcoin cannot scale, until the fixed blocksize issue is fixed.

There is no fixed block size issue because by most people's estimations, something like the relay network is required for over 500k-ish blocks. Because there is currently no alternative to the relay network that isn't opt-in, this just makes it a cartel creation type of tool to exclude various adversaries from interacting with the network at all.

What do you expect, Monero is just gonna scale to 100mb blocks with no side effects? Monero does not solve Bitcoin scalability issues. There really is no huge scalability problem in the first place. I estimate around 8MB blocks is what is needed to have $10kish transactions and higher valid for on-chain use as a major world currency. That's just within capability of catching mainstream consumer support.

hitchingAride

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Thinking from a midterm perspective ideally I want the upcoming bitcoin halving to do nothing maybe even crash bitcoins price this would be great for alt coins especially monero in my opinion. This may be confirmation bias but I think the halving will be anti climatic. Think if halving was really going to cause the price to go up, why isn't it up now this news is known to nearly everyone in the bitcoin community. I don't believe the market is perfectly efficient but when nearly everyone is already aware how will their be this massive doubling pump. When the bitcoin halving comes around I think almost anything could happen, but my best interest might be biasing me since my holdings are all xmr and im hoping for a crash or stable price. If I did have bitcoin I would be buying xmr now, since the volumes back up with xmr, we still have good momentum and each peak so far is showing higher volume. I am a momentum trader and of all the altcoins monero shows all the technicals and even good fundamentals so im still super bullish.

ArticMine

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Quote from: r0ach on March 27, 2016, 09:49:42 PM

I do not agree with the TrueCryptonaire sig:

"In the long run XMR has good chances to gain higher marketcap than btc."

BTC can scale off-chain and Monero doesn't, nor through SPV type implementations. At that point, there is no point in using Monero over BTC. It's true, Monero market cap can be much higher than now, even in the billions, but if it was, Bitcoin would probably be in the trillions.

Quote from: r0ach on March 14, 2016, 08:41:06 PM

It's possible Monero or Zcash will occupy some type of niche market, but the anon wars of incrementalism would have to end first, and I'm not really seeing how that's going to happen. You would need to subscribe to four ideas for Monero to really do something:

1) Smooth's claim that currency is the killer app of the blockchain (likely plausible)
2) Anonymity is a mandatory feature set of that app (less plausible)
3) Governments would not make the anon currency extremely difficult to use while allowing BTC instead, crippling the anon currency market cap
4) The need to believe on-chain anonymity would be useful in a clearing/settlement network.

If your key feature is not utilized in the likely evolution of the network, you're relegated back to the niche market. That niche market could be worth billions of dollars though, so I guess it's all relative. BTC on the other hand could go to trillions as a settlement layer. There's just not an overwhelming need to make Bitcoin obsolete and switch when both coins operate roughly the same in the end game. Ring signatures will likely block many further on-chain scaling options to boot. So yea, it could be valuable, but likely not a threat to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin cannot scale, until the fixed blocksize issue is fixed. Off-chain solutions in Bitcoin will also require massive increases in the blocksize. Monero has a currently working solution for main chain scaling by using adaptive blocksize limits and a tail emission. As for SPV implementations they serve to allow for the use of Bitcoin on devices with limited capabilities such as certain mobile devices. SPV does not solve the fundamental issue with Bitcoin scaling in any meaningful way. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Thin_Client_Security

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: r0ach on March 27, 2016, 10:04:20 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2016, 10:00:42 PM

0.1 % daily interest rate is 36.5 % annually

And on the next $20 BTC jump, you lose all of that in 2 days for the counterparty risk of having coins on bologniex for a year. Wow, people really did forget Gox existed already. The only reason to keep coins on an exchange is the freaking stop loss lol.

If that plan fits for you, then good for you I guess.
I am looking for passive income and currently I consider Polo lending the best and the savest way for that. That being said, I am not thinking it is 100 % safe and sound system and there indeed are all kind of risks. The markets will decide what is the risk premium of such risks. In bank account I get 0 % interest rate but for lending XMR I get over 30 %.. Sure bank account is safer place to hold money (the governement will bail the banks out usually because the banking system is too big to fail) but also it will not give you any ROI...

r0ach

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2016, 10:00:42 PM

0.1 % daily interest rate is 36.5 % annually

And on the next $20 BTC jump, you lose all of that in 2 days for the counterparty risk of having coins on bologniex for a year. Wow, people really did forget Gox existed already. The only reason to keep coins on an exchange is the freaking stop loss lol.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: wpalczynski on March 27, 2016, 09:46:57 PM

Pretty petty to begin with allowing an asset you are invested in to be shorted for fractions of a percent in interest.

The markets decide the interest rates, it is the intermediation of supply and demand.
0.1 % daily interest rate is 36.5 % annually (excl. compounding interest rate which make the actual ROI even higher on annual basis).

kanazawa

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some months ago, I told that Monero was the most crazy coin in the whole scene... now it's getting more and more serious, lotta people talk about eth, few of them know, lotta people talk about s.c but none of them ready this juicy thread completely full of information. lolng live to monero and to the guys who are supporing it so strong across the destruction scenatio between other coins (you know).

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: wpalczynski on March 27, 2016, 09:46:57 PM

Pretty petty to begin with allowing an asset you are invested in to be shorted for fractions of a percent in interest.

I would not call it petty, and I do not have a "moral" problem with it. It is just in this case I find it extremely risky.

slapper

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Quote from: ArticMine on March 27, 2016, 09:29:22 PM

Quote from: slapper on March 27, 2016, 09:08:36 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2016, 08:59:44 PM

The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions. Huh

Absolutely true. Perhaps the most important thing you have said in your entire BTCTalk history. This coin is not suitable to be introduced to any new people through word of mouth or even pointing to any articles or other literature.

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine. Even Darkcoin/Dash is built with a lot of solid hands giving it value.

This is why we need zcash. Just like we need Ethereum, not just for technology but for value and respecting value of an asset.

Seriously Monero has gone up over 400% in a period of 2.5 months and one can reach the above conclusion over a 25% correction? The reality is that a correction is in many cases healthy for the longevity of a bull market. This applies to any asset not just crypto currencies.
Maybe what the market is looking for here is for more bears to get deeper into margin in order to set up a good short squeeze. As I have indicated before a short squeeze involving crypto currencies can get real ugly real fast, which is why taking delivery and sitting back and watching this unravel is my preferred course of action.

Edit: I have said this before and will say it again. The most effective way to squeeze the shorts to the wall is to take delivery and wait.

Percentages might tell only a limited reality. The deliberate crashing of the market today was related to a $10 increase in BTC price. Someone mentioned here a few pages ago about there being such a trend for months, but after all this rise a whale shitting on his own investment thereby triggering mass dumping today is what we are talking about here. You dont see that in Dash. Ethereum is of course pumped way too high to sustain but it still has much bigger BTC whales backing it, so the little guy doesn't feel as threatened to get into BTC.

r0ach

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I do not agree with the TrueCryptonaire sig:

"In the long run XMR has good chances to gain higher marketcap than btc."

BTC can scale off-chain and Monero doesn't, nor through SPV type implementations. At that point, there is no point in using Monero over BTC. It's true, Monero market cap can be much higher than now, even in the billions, but if it was, Bitcoin would probably be in the trillions.

Quote from: r0ach on March 14, 2016, 08:41:06 PM

It's possible Monero or Zcash will occupy some type of niche market, but the anon wars of incrementalism would have to end first, and I'm not really seeing how that's going to happen. You would need to subscribe to four ideas for Monero to really do something:

1) Smooth's claim that currency is the killer app of the blockchain (likely plausible)
2) Anonymity is a mandatory feature set of that app (less plausible)
3) Governments would not make the anon currency extremely difficult to use while allowing BTC instead, crippling the anon currency market cap
4) The need to believe on-chain anonymity would be useful in a clearing/settlement network.

If your key feature is not utilized in the likely evolution of the network, you're relegated back to the niche market. That niche market could be worth billions of dollars though, so I guess it's all relative. BTC on the other hand could go to trillions as a settlement layer. There's just not an overwhelming need to make Bitcoin obsolete and switch when both coins operate roughly the same in the end game. Ring signatures will likely block many further on-chain scaling options to boot. So yea, it could be valuable, but likely not a threat to Bitcoin.

wpalczynski

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Pretty petty to begin with allowing an asset you are invested in to be shorted for fractions of a percent in interest.

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2016, 09:38:33 PM

The good thing is I got a pay day during this dump. A lot of old shorts (including 0.9 %) was closed and a nice chunk of Moneros was pocketed and now lent back to the next generation of bears.
Always cool to get some extra Moneros... All the dust even is worth picking IMO as opposed to let someone else to take it. Wink

To each their own, but personally I do not like the risk to reward ratio of financing Monero short positions that use Dash for example as collateral. Nothing against Dash, I would feel the same about a Dash short position that uses Monero as collateral. The risk of a double whammy here can be very high.

TrueCryptonaire

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The good thing is I got a pay day during this dump. A lot of old shorts (including 0.9 %) was closed and a nice chunk of Moneros was pocketed and now lent back to the next generation of bears.
Always cool to get some extra Moneros... All the dust even is worth picking IMO as opposed to let someone else to take it. Wink

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: slapper on March 27, 2016, 09:08:36 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2016, 08:59:44 PM

The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions. Huh

Absolutely true. Perhaps the most important thing you have said in your entire BTCTalk history. This coin is not suitable to be introduced to any new people through word of mouth or even pointing to any articles or other literature.

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine. Even Darkcoin/Dash is built with a lot of solid hands giving it value.

This is why we need zcash. Just like we need Ethereum, not just for technology but for value and respecting value of an asset.

Seriously Monero has gone up over 400% in a period of 2.5 months and one can reach the above conclusion over a 25% correction? The reality is that a correction is in many cases healthy for the longevity of a bull market. This applies to any asset not just crypto currencies.
Maybe what the market is looking for here is for more bears to get deeper into margin in order to set up a good short squeeze. As I have indicated before a short squeeze involving crypto currencies can get real ugly real fast, which is why taking delivery and sitting back and watching this unravel is my preferred course of action.

Edit: I have said this before and will say it again. The most effective way to squeeze the shorts to the wall is to take delivery and wait.

r0ach

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2016, 08:59:44 PM

When the price drops it definetely is the exact time to show some strength to the bears. I agree that the current area is pretty much the place to be.
Judging by the intensivity and the mood of the bear, I am not surprised if it breaks and we go to 0.002's but that's unlikely and also perhaps harmful for the trend.
The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions. Huh

Yes, I've already learned that lesson with Cagara on Bologniex. This was an era when the highest daily volume for a coin was like 3000 BTC. I had no idea someone would show up out of the blue willing to short with 1000 BTC. Even if you own that much BTC yourself, what kind of idiot would risk it all in one move on an altcoin, plus insane counterparty risk of the exchange at the same time. I had to back out of a trade while still in profit, but was essentially bullied out of position because he was willing to risk more than me.

Funny enough, he tried to do the exact same thing to Eth when it began to rise, bully Eth pumpers out of position right around 0.004. It obviously backfired horribly. God only knows how much he lost from that. He may be living in a cardboard box now. Here today, gone tomorrow.

vuduchyld

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Ethereum is in strong hands who respect it as an asset?

Looks to me more like that train got jumped on and ridden hard by every "bro" with a satoshi. And oh by the way, it also looks like it's down far more from its high and for far longer.

I could be wrong, but I'd say it's far more of an exploited asset by the bros.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: slapper on March 27, 2016, 09:08:36 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2016, 08:59:44 PM

The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions. Huh

Absolutely true. Perhaps the most important thing you have said in your entire BTCTalk history. This coin is not suitable to be introduced to any new people through word of mouth or even pointing to any articles or other literature.

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine. Even Darkcoin/Dash is built with a lot of solid hands giving it value.

This is why we need zcash. Just like we need Ethereum, not just for technology but for value and respecting value of an asset.

I am not selling though. I am lending and the interests will accumulate. Over the years with compounding interests the interest collected will be more meaningful than my initial investment.

slapper

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2016, 08:59:44 PM

The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions. Huh

Absolutely true. Perhaps the most important thing you have said in your entire BTCTalk history. This coin is not suitable to be introduced to any new people through word of mouth or even pointing to any articles or other literature.

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine. Even Darkcoin/Dash is built with a lot of solid hands giving it value.

This is why we need zcash. Just like we need Ethereum, not just for technology but for value and respecting value of an asset.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1405. (Read 3313576 times)