Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1415. (Read 3314669 times)
The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.
If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?
Your "LTC as a backup" argument has never made sense to me.
LTC would fail as a backup because it offers no security balance, and will suffer the same hypothetical fate as its bigger brother. Think about it: if the bitcoin network were suddenly brought to its knees, how would anyone be safer in LTC?
AEON backing up XMR is equally absurd.
I also mentioned BBR/XCN as possible/logical XMR backups, yet you pointedly failed to mention them. Any reason for that omission?
Sorry, I can't parse "security balance" or understand why such a thing would overrule the market, which has put the upper bound of LTC value at something over $30 each and consistently awards LTC a market cap in the $100s of millions.
LTC uses a different blockchain and proof-of-work and github (etc) than BTC; why wouldn't it be safer when BTC black-swans?
Were you here that time BTC has an itsy-bitsy little chain fork and LTC instantly absorbed the FUD? I was, and so were a lot of other people. We're not going to forget that, no matter how impressively many zeros BTC adds to its uptime.
Then there is the fact many (especially in China) see BTC and LTC as Coke and Pepsi. They don't need to understand my "LTC as a backup argument" because they don't even see LTC as an altcoin.
Since you can't tell us how Bitcoin is going to fail, please don't presume to also assert that unknown, theoretical failure mode would necessarily be occupied by Litecoin or any (non-merged-mined) altcoin as well.
I'd rather celebrate XMR's victories than cast aspersions on LTC's viability. We don't need to tear BTC/LTC down to raise XMR up. It's not zero sum. The crypto pie is growing so fast that all legit/useful/innovative projects may have a nicely sized slice.
This is where it gets interesting. At some point that pie will stop growing so fast. And by pie I don't necessarily mean market cap (as that at least did a long-pause if not a stop in 2013) but applications, use cases, and district community approaches to it. And at that point we will reach a consolidation phase, and then I think there will be actual coin failures (failures not necessarily in a technical sense, but economically and socially people will just abandon coins that don't make the cut).
Consolidation (ie culling the weak from the herd) started years ago and never stopped. RIP Tenebrix, IXcoin, Paycoin, and Neucoin.
All basically stillborn or pan flashers that were never in the top or at least not for much time.
Old leaders fail too. Think Pan Am, Hostess, Sears. Those weren't even tech, where you might consider innovation and disruption. There you have Blackberry, Atari, Wang, AOL, and countless others.
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The crypto pie will grow astronomically faster
In that case it won't happen for a while, but it will still happen.
Yes, the Lindy effect strongly tends to protect incumbent technologies (eg big box store shopping and video games) much more than particular individual firms (eg Sears and Atari), until it doesn't.
I'm reminded of the tectonic metaphor often used to describe the decay of the Roman Republic into Empire as happening "gradually, then all at once." (Cite needed; sorry I'm a terribly lazy scholar.)
Where do you see crypto as crossing its Rubicon of disruption into the hollowed out Marches of Fiat power vacuum? (I'm asking in good faith, not trying to set you up for a 'Gotcha! LOOL!' if you're a bit off or even completely wrong.)
If pressed, I'd pick as the least arbitrary line of demarcation the moment when the market cap(s) of BTC+XMR exceeds that of gold+silver.
Hemingway described his bankruptcy as occurring 'gradually and then suddenly' also.
If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?
Your "LTC as a backup" argument has never made sense to me.
LTC would fail as a backup because it offers no security balance, and will suffer the same hypothetical fate as its bigger brother. Think about it: if the bitcoin network were suddenly brought to its knees, how would anyone be safer in LTC?
AEON backing up XMR is equally absurd.
I'd rather celebrate XMR's victories than cast aspersions on LTC's viability. We don't need to tear BTC/LTC down to raise XMR up. It's not zero sum. The crypto pie is growing so fast that all legit/useful/innovative projects may have a nicely sized slice.
This is where it gets interesting. At some point that pie will stop growing so fast. And by pie I don't necessarily mean market cap (as that at least did a long-pause if not a stop in 2013) but applications, use cases, and district community approaches to it. And at that point we will reach a consolidation phase, and then I think there will be actual coin failures (failures not necessarily in a technical sense, but economically and socially people will just abandon coins that don't make the cut).
Consolidation (ie culling the weak from the herd) started years ago and never stopped. RIP Tenebrix, IXcoin, Paycoin, and Neucoin.
All basically stillborn or pan flashers that were never in the top or at least not for much time.
Old leaders fail too. Think Pan Am, Hostess, Sears. Those weren't even tech, where you might consider innovation and disruption. There you have Blackberry, Atari, Wang, AOL, and countless others.
Quote
The crypto pie will grow astronomically faster
In that case it won't happen for a while, but it will still happen.
Yes, the Lindy effect strongly tends to protect incumbent technologies (eg big box store shopping and video games) much more than particular individual firms (eg Sears and Atari), until it doesn't.
I'm reminded of the tectonic metaphor often used to describe the decay of the Roman Republic into Empire as happening "gradually, then all at once." (Cite needed; sorry I'm a terribly lazy scholar.)
Where do you see crypto as crossing its Rubicon of disruption into the hollowed out Marches of Fiat power vacuum? (I'm asking in good faith, not trying to set you up for a 'Gotcha! LOOL!' if you're a bit off or even completely wrong.)
If pressed, I'd pick as the least arbitrary line of demarcation the moment when the market cap(s) of BTC+XMR exceeds that of gold+silver.
I'd rather celebrate XMR's victories than cast aspersions on LTC's viability. We don't need to tear BTC/LTC down to raise XMR up. It's not zero sum. The crypto pie is growing so fast that all legit/useful/innovative projects may have a nicely sized slice.
This is where it gets interesting. At some point that pie will stop growing so fast. And by pie I don't necessarily mean market cap (as that at least did a long-pause if not a stop in 2013) but applications, use cases, and district community approaches to it. And at that point we will reach a consolidation phase, and then I think there will be actual coin failures (failures not necessarily in a technical sense, but economically and socially people will just abandon coins that don't make the cut).
Consolidation (ie culling the weak from the herd) started years ago and never stopped. RIP Tenebrix, IXcoin, Paycoin, and Neucoin.
All basically stillborn or pan flashers that were never in the top or at least not for much time.
Old leaders fail too. Think Pan Am, Hostess, Sears. Those weren't even tech, where you might consider innovation and disruption. There you have Blackberry, Atari, Wang, AOL, and countless others.
Quote
The crypto pie will grow astronomically faster
In that case it won't happen for a while, but it will still happen.
So is it possible to use XMR in a manner that person A promises to pay to person B x amount, and as a proof of funds person A sends coins to the network but in a manner that person B sees it as peding deposit (and person A has pending/reserved withdrawal). Once person B has delivered his duty towards person A, person A redeems the payment?
I'd rather celebrate XMR's victories than cast aspersions on LTC's viability. We don't need to tear BTC/LTC down to raise XMR up. It's not zero sum. The crypto pie is growing so fast that all legit/useful/innovative projects may have a nicely sized slice.
This is where it gets interesting. At some point that pie will stop growing so fast. And by pie I don't necessarily mean market cap (as that at least did a long-pause if not a stop in 2013) but applications, use cases, and district community approaches to it. And at that point we will reach a consolidation phase, and then I think there will be actual coin failures (failures not necessarily in a technical sense, but economically and socially people will just abandon coins that don't make the cut).
Consolidation (ie culling the weak from the herd) started years ago and never stopped. RIP Tenebrix, IXcoin, Paycoin, and Neucoin. Congrats to LTC, PPC, NMC, and XPM. Honorable mention to NVC and participation ribbon to FTH.
The crypto pie will grow astronomically faster (think early inflationary universe feed by false vacuum energy) to quadrillions of times its present magnitude before it slows down.
The post-exponential-expansion quiescence/stability doesn't occur until after fiat is disrupted, the BIS is razed and turned into a memorial garden for the victims of warfare/welfare statism, and we get bored of partying in the desert around Monero Mountain.
There is so much low hanging fruit, ripe for disruption, as Bitcoin and Monero turn finance into a software problem (and ETH does the same for governance/arbitration/regulation), I don't even try to think of post-Cryptopia specifics that far ahead, because they exist in stable basins of attraction several chaotic quantum leaps beyond the present. Thus being deterministic, but not computable.
Litecoin as "blue-chip" coin. lol, #timestamp
...Theory is nice, but when the theory doesn't match reality, adjust the theory.
...
Or make a wager with people who have different theories. I believe I offered such a bet to Smoothie a while back, when LTC was trading >0.01BTC if memory serves.
And FWIW - I consider the crypto-markets to be extremely immature, to the point where it's still very difficult to discern signal from noise looking over the entire history to date. Thus I'm certainly not abandoning theory at this point. Feel free to quote this in >5 years if Litecoin as a "blue chip" isn't obviously ridiculous by then.
On a related note, it's been a theory of mine (and many others') for years that Bitcoin would remain strong in the face of alt-coin competition due in part to the idea that Bitcoin could and would adopt good innovations from the alt-space. But this is a theory that I'm listening to the conflicting data on, and am not so sure about any more, as Core dev and their narrow-minded high-hashrate supporters show that perhaps Bitcoin really isn't as strong and anti-fragile as I'd believed.
From my perspective, Bitcoin has remained strong, even considering recent events. There has just been room for other coins to thrive as well. Pretty much what iCEBREAKER said about the crypto pie growing rapidly, where once slice becoming bigger does not make another slice smaller.
If your theory was that Bitcoin was just going to streamroller over all other communities and simply assimilate all innovation and market development, well that theory does need some reexamination (and LTC is very much valid evidence for this not happening, among others of course), at least so far.
If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?
This logic is almost universally applied to gold and silver in terms of fiat, AEON and BBR/XDN in terms of Monero, generators and batteries in terms of COLOs/hospitals, etc.
When appeals to argumentum ad Las Vegas wagering are made, we may take that as indication Melbustus' mind is made up and does not wish to be confused with facts, whether empirical or analytical. When his theory doesn't match reality, he'd rather move the goalposts 5 years into the future than check his (obviously flawed) premises.
Le sigh. I suppose we should welcome the LTC and BTC obituary writers into our ever-expanding Monero tent, as an auspicious sign of our community's growing diversity. Who else is ready to lean into Monero's Eternal September? I'll throw the first handful of dirt on our little Golden Age of Wild & Free Mustang Enlightenment...AP can carry the torch from here.
On a side note, I can't believe Smoothie is being so nice about the LTC smack talk!
I guess he's in a good mood, what with the XMR moon and all. Or there's more drama/history to the wager than Mel alluded to....
...
If your theory was that Bitcoin was just going to streamroller over all other communities and simply assimilate all innovation and market development, well that theory does need some reexamination (and LTC is very much valid evidence for this not happening, among others of course), at least so far.
If your theory was that Bitcoin was just going to streamroller over all other communities and simply assimilate all innovation and market development, well that theory does need some reexamination (and LTC is very much valid evidence for this not happening, among others of course), at least so far.
No, I've also noted for a couple years that I think a number of coins will co-exist with non-trivial market-caps, though I think it'll be a power-law type effect where the top few have almost all the market-cap, and where the top-1 - in prior instances of the theory, always Bitcoin - has a very large majority.
You assume eth will be gone out of picture, or just not count it here as it aims at differer use case then a normal currency?
Both long term. Latter for short term.
see:
(premined/ipo coins need not apply)
The next crypto bubble so to speak will be quite interesting. I've always felt like xmr more or less follows btc (nothing to prove or show for this) so xmr could easily bring in exponential more profits than ltc, just as ltc could bring exponential more profits than bitcoin. Loooong term I definitely think btc is #1, xmr is #2, and ltc is #3 though. I've declared them the "big 3" for quite a while now and will be very exciting to see xmr overtake doge as the #3 coin in cryptoland (premined/ipo coins need not apply).
You assume eth will be gone out of picture, or just not count it here as it aims at differer use case then a normal currency?
Litecoin as "blue-chip" coin. lol, #timestamp
...Theory is nice, but when the theory doesn't match reality, adjust the theory.
...
Or make a wager with people who have different theories. I believe I offered such a bet to Smoothie a while back, when LTC was trading >0.01BTC if memory serves.
And FWIW - I consider the crypto-markets to be extremely immature, to the point where it's still very difficult to discern signal from noise looking over the entire history to date. Thus I'm certainly not abandoning theory at this point. Feel free to quote this in >5 years if Litecoin as a "blue chip" isn't obviously ridiculous by then.
On a related note, it's been a theory of mine (and many others') for years that Bitcoin would remain strong in the face of alt-coin competition due in part to the idea that Bitcoin could and would adopt good innovations from the alt-space. But this is a theory that I'm listening to the conflicting data on, and am not so sure about any more, as Core dev and their narrow-minded high-hashrate supporters show that perhaps Bitcoin really isn't as strong and anti-fragile as I'd believed.
From my perspective, Bitcoin has remained strong, even considering recent events. There has just been room for other coins to thrive as well. Pretty much what iCEBREAKER said about the crypto pie growing rapidly, where one slice becoming bigger does not make another slice smaller.
If your theory was that Bitcoin was just going to streamroller over all other communities and simply assimilate all innovation and market development, well that theory does need some reexamination (and LTC is very much valid evidence for this not happening, among others of course), at least so far.
Litecoin as "blue-chip" coin. lol, #timestamp
...Theory is nice, but when the theory doesn't match reality, adjust the theory.
...
Or make a wager with people who have different theories. I believe I offered such a bet to Smoothie a while back, when LTC was trading >0.01BTC if memory serves.
And FWIW - I consider the crypto-markets to be extremely immature, to the point where it's still very difficult to discern signal from noise looking over the entire history to date. Thus I'm certainly not abandoning theory at this point. Feel free to quote this in >5 years if Litecoin as a "blue chip" isn't obviously ridiculous by then.
On a related note, it's been a theory of mine (and many others') for years that Bitcoin would remain strong in the face of alt-coin competition due in part to the idea that Bitcoin could and would adopt good innovations from the alt-space. But this is a theory that I'm listening to the conflicting data on, and am not so sure about any more, as Core dev and their narrow-minded high-hashrate supporters show that perhaps Bitcoin really isn't as strong and anti-fragile as I'd believed.
Word is that the chinese don't consider litecoin to be an altcoin. They just see bitcoin and litecoin and then the rest. Litecoin is also the only other coin besides bitcoin on the major chinese exchanges. This is enough for me to keep some of my hodlings in ltc for the time being. Much more room for profit than btc, and it still hasn't shown that it will be decoupled from btcs next moves. Very long term, I am not sure as no one is, but worst case I figure I will be able to increase my btc and xmr hodlings.
I guess that could change as monero is now more than half the price of litecoin. So that perspective could change pretty quickly.
We'll see.
The next crypto bubble so to speak will be quite interesting. I've always felt like xmr more or less follows btc (nothing to prove or show for this) so xmr could easily bring in exponential more profits than ltc, just as ltc could bring exponential more profits than bitcoin. Loooong term I definitely think btc is #1, xmr is #2, and ltc is #3 though. I've declared them the "big 3" for quite a while now and will be very exciting to see xmr overtake doge as the #3 coin in cryptoland (premined/ipo coins need not apply).
About 2 years ago I didn't know much, but I was interested in Monero so I forced myself to learn how to use the command line wallet. It was fun to learn how things worked on a deeper level so I started learning how to code when I had the time.
Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!
I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.
Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!
I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.
Very cool. Thanks for sharing your experience.
Word is that the chinese don't consider litecoin to be an altcoin. They just see bitcoin and litecoin and then the rest. Litecoin is also the only other coin besides bitcoin on the major chinese exchanges. This is enough for me to keep some of my hodlings in ltc for the time being. Much more room for profit than btc, and it still hasn't shown that it will be decoupled from btcs next moves. Very long term, I am not sure as no one is, but worst case I figure I will be able to increase my btc and xmr hodlings.
I guess that could change as monero is now more than half the price of litecoin. So that perspective could change pretty quickly.
We'll see.
About 2 years ago I didn't know much, but I was interested in Monero so I forced myself to learn how to use the command line wallet. It was fun to learn how things worked on a deeper level so I started learning how to code when I had the time.
Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!
I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.
Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!
I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.
Very good. I'm happy for you.
Yes programming/coding can be an acquired taste as it was for me.
It is a very valuable skill in the time we live in.
Word is that the chinese don't consider litecoin to be an altcoin. They just see bitcoin and litecoin and then the rest. Litecoin is also the only other coin besides bitcoin on the major chinese exchanges. This is enough for me to keep some of my hodlings in ltc for the time being. Much more room for profit than btc, and it still hasn't shown that it will be decoupled from btcs next moves. Very long term, I am not sure as no one is, but worst case I figure I will be able to increase my btc and xmr hodlings.
Litecoin as "blue-chip" coin. lol, #timestamp
It has been a "top-few" coin for half of Bitcoin's lifetime. How can you be much more blue chip than that?
Theory is nice, but when the theory doesn't match reality, adjust the theory.
That's not to say it is forever necessarily. Blue chips aren't either.
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