You beat me to it! Honestly, that seems to be an important level and once we cross it, the big holders will do everything in their power to keep it above that.
Not to mention just organic growth and a greatly reducing emission curve.
As I've noted a bunch, I think Monero's realistic "moon" target in the medium-term is Litecoin's market-cap. I think getting beyond that will require the existence of a robust Monero transactional economy, which will take time (if it ever happens).
But Litecoin sticking it out at ~$150m shows that a low nine-figure market-cap can indeed be sustained on hopes and dreams with no real economy behind it. And in Litecoin's case, on "me too" tech that offers nothing to the ecosystem....though I think - finally, mercifully - LTC's days as a top-5 (top-10?) coin are coming to an end.
Good analysis.
On the other hand, Ethereum is all hopes and dreams too at this point. Just more of them.