Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1456. (Read 3313576 times)

I sincerely hope that someday this story gets as much play as the 10,000 bitcoin pizza!

Othe's big win has terrible optics, but what are you gonna do?  If he wins he wins.  Of course the top winner is most likely to be someone with a lot of XMR to play with, and of course the devs are going to have XMR.  For PR sake I hope devs refrain from playing big there going forward, and in time someone else will claim the top win spot, thus repairing the optics.

It's 10% of site *profits*, which seems reasonable enough to me.

AP, your arithmetic is bad. You have a 9/10th chance of winning, but payout is 11/10ths. A bet at 90% should pay out 10/9ths or 11.1%.

The house edge was mentioned which is 1% and someone has to pay for the server and site upkeep so 10% of that 1% seems very fair.

He forgot to mention that FluffyPony is taking 10% of all winnings, and he also did not mention that the highest winner (21800) Moneros is also another Monero develop Othe. So much for developing the coin

Great review Mr. Pegasus. Very useful and thanks for doing it.

So I've been meaning to put some money on /u/fluffyponyza's Monerodice.net for a while now and give it a spin, but for some reason only just got around to it.

Before we begin though, what's the #1 rule of gambling? Look at the money you're about to gamble, pretend its already gone and the only thing you got in return was the entertainment of gambling it away. Is that ok? If so, proceed. If not, reduce the size of your bankroll.

Setup

For me, I had 10 Monero in my Tippero account that I didn't mind losing, and a long boring day of lectures to sit through. So I transferred them over from Tippero to Monerodice, and poof - no transaction difficulties or excessive confirmations. I checked back a few minutes later and everything was there.

The site also lets you add 2FA to your account which is nice, and gives it an air of legitimacy. It's especially nice since I can't always be bothered to login to a dice site with a secure computer - yesterday I wanted to play on a mobile for example.

Play

You surely already know how a dice site works, and this one has a tiny < 1% house edge, a portion of which goes to support the devs anyway. You can set your rolls and odds all the way from a "x2" where you have to beat a roll of 50.50, all the way to a moonshot chance of 5,000x'ing your money where you have to beat a number well above 99.98.

However my favorite bet was the 1.10x multiplier which carries a 90% chance of winning. Maybe I'm just bad at arithmetic (I am), but this bet seems to carry no house edge? I can bet 10 Monero, and if I roll less than 90.00 (or greater than 10.00, players choice), I win eleven back. This also seems to be the most popular bet on the site.

While bored out of my mind in my lectures, I devised what I call "Gauntlet One", which aims to 5x your initial wager with descending chances of ruin, assuming you pass the initial x2 wager.

    Roll 1: x2 (50%)
    Roll 2: x1.5 (66%)
    Roll 3: x1.33 (75%)
    Roll 4: x1.25 (80%)

I'm sure if you work out the probability of surviving all the rolls, it equates to approximately 20%, but this is far more exciting than a one-off shot at 5x'ing a bet.

Anyhow, with a couple of lucky button presses, scaling up a few winning bets, and scaling back bets on losses, I managed to work that initial 10 Monero to 15, then 25, then 33, and ended the night with a win of 40 Monero! Thanks for the free money, and I figured I would write this review now before I lose it all today.

In any case, the site works fine on my iPhone, but you have to remember to click the roll button one time to highlight it, and a second to roll it (if you double click it, that's two rolls so be careful!). Also be warned if you click a 'Go' instruction on the iPhone keyboard that's permission to go ahead and roll too.

Other Features

The site also has great stats where you can see recent bets/wins/losses as well as big bets recently. It also has a basic troll/whine box where you can complain about losing all your Monero, and you can also see a graph of the site's profit/loss (part of the provably fair metric). Players have the option to invest a little of their money into the site and share in the small house edge, but who has time for having a house advantage when you can beat long odds for much more?

I also like that the site explicitly shows you a "maximum win" amount, which is significant but also fair. It prevents me from wondering if the owner would toss me into the back alley should I accidentally hit a real moonshot. For those who want to test their fortunes, that amount is currently set at a whopping 28,000 Monero. Remember not to gamble more than you can afford to lose!

Summary

It would be hard to ask for a better dice site than this, but that doesn't mean the field isn't wide open. There is still room for a quality poker site, blackjack game, as well as something with a bit more flash and dazzle (like slots). Play responsibly, legally, and if you are an entrepreneur consider what other sites you might create to help bolster the Monero universe!

Indeed, just the other night, someone placed a 100 BTC offer about 10ksat below the market, which kindly bowed down to meet him, and made return visits to 270k repeatedly, until he was completely filled after a few hours.  I am not sure just how many thousands you could pick up this way in a week, but it would likely be more than any one party should own for very long.  More often, however, FOMU overtakes them after one or two visits to their passive bid, and they chase the rest up the bid stack.

It does take a fairly large order, not too awfully far from the market, however, to entice liquidity seekers.  We monerists are a patient bunch - with the exception of a few evidently short-sighted miners, who tend to dump whatever they can scrape together, and the occasional short-seller endowed with more bravado than wisdom. That the experience of a 5x rise in 15 months, in combination with far grander ambitions for the future, can instill steely resolve into the heart of the most flaccid milquetoast punter should surprise no one.

I watched this market far too much, the past week, as the drama intrigued me so.  I hereby resolve to desist.

There are many reasons that entities/holders might sell or spend their moneroj.  Maybe, just maybe, becoming a gazillionaire is not the be all and end all goal for some. 
As far as 1000 XMR having an impact, our definitions of impact would appear to differ.  10 000 XMR tends to move a few percent for a few minutes.  In recent market conditions, it would be fairly easy to accumulate 100K coins within a pretty tight window of price and time, and leave no lasting effect.   Of course, it would be more fun to time it just right, so that you shoot a green candle right out the top of the monitor, but it isn't necessary if you don't have the funds to waste on such childish pleasures

You are so right. Monero is pretty hard to acquire any significiant amount without causing the price to rise. Even buying 1000 XMR will have an impact on price without sell walls near the spot.
I agree that we need to say farewell to part of the community on the way to the moon. I am sure some of people will sell all their coins and get replaced by several more coin holders. That's life, and the sellers are the ones who regret the most in the end when looking how rich they could have been by being a bit more patient and perhaps adding their collections a bit every day.

Yes and yes. The guide I made (big thanks to GingerAle also for the vids + descriptions) basically ensures that the only way your coins could get stolen is physical access, which is extremely rare.

I should clarify that I think it is only acceptable for holding a decent stash if you use the guide's method. This is my opinion though and the guide is kind of for extreme paranoia, but better safe than sorry.

I also have a few .1% loans out for 20 days and am looking forward to the 25/26 when its due back.

Wall gone and after 5 min 13k XMR sold lol someone is really trying to keep the price down but unfortunately will not succeed

Very nice gift.

It took it like 15 minutes to get bought.

Why this sell wall of 19k? i can only think of 1 answer XMR is gonna skyrocket with lots of green fuel

It seems that Uruguay is nice.

Edit:  once more I nibbled while I slept.  It was my last, no more btc on exchange, and lowest bid of the last days.

20k sell wall.  A chance for Heuristic to buy back in.

12 months from now we might be close to the third month of a Trump presidency.  Or, depending on his choice of V.P., a Sarah Palin presidency.

Positive for XMR?

I wasn't looking for an answer from you. Don't flatter yourself. It was a stab at your imaginary trade, something you are always so eager to point out how you are doing, because again .. Daddy didn't care 


The inner child in you is what we all enjoy. Tell us again if you also won a candy today, don't hold back.


Of course you did. Daddy will be proud. Come back again tomorrow and let us know how you did. With screenshots, so others can also applaud. Lets keep selling to the next noob in this thread and we will all get rich. XMR ATH baby !!