Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1459. (Read 3313576 times)

Breakup in 18h

Nothing wrong with being wrong that changing your mind can't fix . Welcome to the future of scarcity.

Yeah that ETH correlation is annoying, but it is nicely asymmetric, you must admit. Now compare it to BTCUSD and USDJPY,  to get a better picture.

EDIT:

The correlation of first differences is easy to see.  The trend factors require a little more staring.  Note that as ETH was pumping, XMR rose, but not as rapidly.  Note that as ETH is dumping, XMR trend is roughly flat.  I think we can thank ETH for stimulating a spec/hedge movement from pure BTC portfolios to mixed Crypto portfolios, and that a significant (relative to the XMR market cap) fraction of ETH gains booked as BTC have been flowing into XMR.

The comparison to BTCUSD is intended to suggest that, if you look, you might find, for example, that the ETH peaks occurred during BTCUSD dips.  This suggests hedging BTC positions by adding ETH, when BTC shows weakness.
If so, then a fraction of that flow going directly from BTC into XMR seems inevitable.

All the evidence seems to support my snap analysis of a few days back.

I suggest looking at USDJPY because it seems very possible that global risk appetite may correlate with the first difference chain as well.  Those amounts are in the trillions, and even a fraction of a basis point of those flows going into BTC, ETH, XMR, whatever, will have outsized impact.

everytime i scan the top 20 for store of value alternatives to btc i end up with xmr these days. turned believer. got it wrong the 1st time.

Soon methinks.

Presumably he personally knows 2 of the 7 core team members.

What do you mean? Having 29% of your property in xmr?  Or level of co-operation?

Not sure that is true. As soon as my nodes were up and running they showed up within an hour on the world map of https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html (the page updates roughly once per hour).

In startups, a catastrophe (from investor pov), is the -100% case. And that is very common, 50-90% of all projects end up such.

Therefore it more makes sense to evaluate the upside, and XMR is like BTC when it was young: the future upside got better as the marketcap proved that someone believed in the coin  (With scamcoins, it's the opposite - rise in price means more possibility for crash).

I like the XMR team very much though although my personal acquaintance is only 29% anymore.

non-issue with a good dev team and a community willingness to download new software.

I observe that monero core devs have their stuff together, which is a nice change of pace as compared to some other projects, and deem that the likelihood of catastrophe is negligible.  But I am now keeping some BTC hot in case of a lemming panic.  If others are doing likewise, they may run out of patience after a while.  FOMU can do that to you if you let it.

While things are moving slow, it might be good to arb the exchanges. At least check.

What kind of speculative magic do you think is in place regarding the scheduled hardfork?

Do you think peeps are waiting to see if it executes flawlessly? I have no idea how complicated it actually is.

Meanwhile ETH appears to be heading towards tests of support at 26, 21.  I haven't had the chutzpah to short it however.  (No time to eagle-eye.) I might try to buy some more XMR with ETH gains if I see strong support and potential catalysts in future.  It worked well enough on this round so that I can tolerate a bit more risk than usual, as long as there is a pot of moneroj at the end of the rainbow.

True, but how many are willing to honestly sell spot Monero at these prices?  Not many.  And without sellers there's really only one way for it to eventually go.

Patience is good.  Demand is quite robust, which a happy thing, but I hope everyone can be patient, and collect the cheaper coins, rather than scaling that wall only to leave a demand vacuum behind that sucks the market down.  The slower this wall is eaten, the firmer and stronger the base will be.

Now it costs more to eat walls. Just out of principle I won't pay more to eat walls.

I would think you would have an AI with no memory accessible.

BTW I think being turing complete is ZenNets goal. W00ps think they are calling in Tau-Chain now. Haven't bothered checking it out for awhile, it looks like a long road.

Market teetering for a few hours now, not sure which way it's gonna break. Bid didn't get filled last night Dammit.

NOW, Where to set my bid for the night???



EDIT: apparently I'm getting a few things mixed up in my non functional memory. This is a good read.

http://cointelegraph.com/news/tau-chain-a-decentralized-app-store-with-greater-flexibility-than-ethereum

I have a feeling that if we would be as large as Bitcoin, even though running a full Monero node is more data/bandwith intensive, we probably would have more nodes. The reason is that there is an incentive to run a fullnode in Monero, namely privacy. Running Monero via a remote node has a detrimental effect on privacy and some kind of SPV style wallet will likely have this aforementioned effect too. Therefore, I suspect a larger amount of people will be running a node, simply to preserve their privacy, for which they likely became interested in this coin in the first place.

So our full node universe is somewhere between the sizes of Ireland and France, as compared to bitcoin.  GDP is lagging that, because network effects on value are more like quadratic than linear at this scale.

That's the historical full nodes (port 18080 open) from moneronodes.i2p: