Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 146. (Read 3313076 times)

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

There is one issue though compared to years ago: we have a lot of stable coins, so people might choose to rather park their money in a stable coin when they think bitcoin might stagnate. I do agree though that still some of the money will go into alts.

As soon as Bitcoin reaches 20k and new ATH, new hype will start. At that time fresh money will start to pour into Bitcoin and from there into alts.  Right now there is no fresh money. Or very little and Bitcoin grow from altcoins. When this will happen who knows. Considering last 2 cycles it is way to early. But we might just have 2 bull runs same as in 2013. That way one might start soon.  But of course Monero can do something on its own.

Good post.

It seems this time it will be all about institutional money, and institutional money only wants bitcoin, maybe ETH, and a few others. Monero? Might be too shady.

Also, as Brandt said (below), this might be like the dotcom bubble. We had a Cambrian explosion of tech stocks/shitcoins. The extinction event is taking place now. Everything will appear dead, but the strong will survive and prosper. Maybe they'll re-emerge in 2020-21 as people look to offload some BTC profits, regulatory clarity finally occurs, maybe some good altcoin custodial solutions emerge (bakkt?), and people become more educated about altcoins (thanks in part to libra).

So, I'm thinking a combination of 1 and 3, but if I have to vote discretely:
1. 30%
2. 25%
3. 25% - Smart money coming into the sector may be able to discern the high quality coins. However, it's taken them 10 years just to seriously look at Bitcoin. I suppose bitcoin could just be the gateway drug
4. 20%  LIBRA - has the potential to absolutely annihilate most other altcoins

Some other popular analysts have chimed in on this:

This is the pain and FUD we've been waiting for. I predict we will hit a new USD ATH within 90 days. That means end of September.

Reminds me of me back in the day when I'm losing a lot trading alts.


And about this, it almost feels like Vays started and did most of the sell down himself then proceeded to make that video.

He's a trader and I wouldn't rule him out holding some of the better alts in the space.

I see Bytecoin still on Poloniex.  But eventually will get delisted. Is just a pump and dump coin without any other usecase. If I were you would stay away from it.


Anyway. Bitcoin went up yesterday for over 20% without any news. I dont think there used to be many such cases in past.

#2 - 75% - the law of big numbers catches up with BTC, with most people looking at the price and thinking that cannot be their ticket to wealth, so other coins become part of the lottery for them. We will see alts move up when regular folks come back. I think the current BTC rise has been result of institutions positioning themselves to take advantage of a new, better regulated market compared to 2017.
#1 - 10% - If my assumption that we are in the verge of FOMO is correct, then BTC shortcomings with regard to blocksize and high fees will rear their ugly head again. People will look for alternative ways to move money. Any privacy additions to Bitcoin at best put it in the optional privacy space, so it really cannot displace XMR in that regard. Only a future better privacy coin can. However, the bigger question is, do people care about privacy? I think the answer is that most people don't, until their lives get affected somehow by the lack of it. This unfortunately makes XMR a pure niche coin.
#3 - 10% - this has been ongoing, and when FOMO is back we will see crap start to float up again. I think this process runs in cycles, with new crap replacing old crap. Some crap like TRON has staying power likely due to shameless marketing.
#4 - 5% - can't see nothing except for possibly GRIN at the moment

The next support is at somewhere around 0.006. If it gets breached, it is all empty till 0.003.

XMR jumped from 0.003 to 0.025 in 25 days in 2016.

0.006 is a critical number, If what I fear happens, you better prepare yourself. Hopefully none of you here are overinvested in XMR, right?

*I bought some back in the day from 0.017 and it isn't very pleasant for me to say these.

TA works. Whoever pumped this from 0.003 to 0.025 has the power to reverse the action in the same short time frame.

Failbitz is not worthy of your apology, just spreading hate for fun. Lets hope for karma.

Meanwhile * I don't get it either.

Followed a link to his vid, watched about 3 minutes. Total fail. Unfollowed immediately.

Him versus BCHboy Ver was an embarrassment, even for me only holding Monero.

Oh boy.

Holding my XMR tight until the market values it correctly.

First of all I feel like I was a bit of a dick for picking on gemblitz.  He is undoubtedly a special sort of idiot, but there is no reason for me to treat him badly.  I apologize.


The other thing is... yes today was a bad day for Monero.  But in reality it is still performing better than most other alts right now.  For the day it is down very significantly.  And it's painful to see...  I am surprised it has gone this low.  But in the perspective of this week, month and year it is doing better than average compared to the field.

I see four scenarios:

1.  Bitcoin is all that matters in the crypto universe.  This would be the ultra maximalist view.  This is what Tone* is currently slinging I guess.  Alts will now die.  Now.  As in over the next 6-12 months they will shrivel to 1-10% of their current value vs BTC.  This includes Monero.  Bitcoin's coming privacy improvements (schnorr, taproot etc) will render it meaningless.

2. (Polar opposite to #1) We are in "Alt Capitulation".  Today we will have shaken out all the weak hands for alts in general.  This is 12/15/2018 for alts. And now, alts in masse will follow Bitcoins recent parabolic move, possibly even in contrast to a (much needed) BTC pullback from these local highs.  BTC may settle down, and even correct while alts take some spotlight and play catch up.  The sector will move as a whole.

3.  This is the time we separate the wheat from the chaff.  As BTC corrects and alts capitulate, only the alt projects with value will rise from the ashes as the garbage pile that is most alts fades slowly (or quickly) into obscurity. XMR is among these as the POW based blockchain with the leading privacy on the base layer.  Other notable alts will also survive (ETH, DCR, LTC? a few others?)

4.  Left Field. This would be a scenario that is basically like #2 or #3 but with a new contender (or maybe 2 or 3) coming in to take the spotlight from all the other alts.  GRIN maybe?  ETH 2.0? BSV (ha... hahaha ... hahahahaha)**.  Bitcoin keeps the main stage but a new contender rises up to challenge it.  "Traditional" alts fade as the new kids on the block soak up the spotlight.  


Personally, I think #3 is most likely with 1,2 and 4 following.

Likelihood in my opinion:

#3 50%
#1 25%
#2 20%
#4  5%

What do you guys think?



*Why has that guy become a bitcoin luminary personality?  That silly number system and all his horrendous calls.  I mean he isn't a terrible evangelist for bitcoin, but he isn't really any trading savant either... seriously overrated in my opinion and that has NOTHING to do with his recent attack in XMR which I have not seen.  And the association with the hyperwave idiot... seriously.  I suppose P.T. Barnum was right.


** Seriously if CSW pulls of the greatest scam in the history of the Earth (which means he is most likely the Antichrist) then I give up... I will just walk away.

Given your clownish reply, you still don't get my point--not  surprising, but you may not want to advertise it.

Wait. What?

Seized Monero?  From Polo...?  "They"?

Something happen or what U mean?  Some darknet market news I missed?  Wot?

everything is timbering rite now ...hodL    weeee

I liked the recent work of the dev guys. They are making this easier to integrate.


Lets see a few frozen fortunes in BTC and then we can talk about the benefits of anonymity.

You are either the dumbest mf on the forum, or you are so high all the time you are the dumbest mf on the forum.

But you know... do you.

This is either capitulation, or the beginning of the end.  I can't think of another reality.  And one of those seems much more likely than the other.  At least for now.

why polo delist bytecoin ? i mean it's not like it was the code they used to fork monero or anything lel

If someone can take time and check how much top altcoins lost against Bitcoin in last 3 months when BTC was $4k or last 2 weeks when bitcoin was $8k . I am sure Monero is holding best or is at least at the ones that lost least.  Maybe I will go make this list, but since know what will be results it would be so boring.