Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1484. (Read 3313576 times)

The original conversation was based around the question of what was driving the markets, which led into the question of what effect the GUI would have on the price.

It is widely accepted that XMR is massively underpriced awaiting upward correction. If you accept that, then it's just a question of what will break the camels back. It could be anything from upstream Trezor adoption, Kraken adoption, Tutanota recognition, speculative diversification of ETH volume, or the relase of the GUI.

Do you accept that XMR is underpriced?

I am not totally sure if you are wrong. A lot of what you said made sense and has shifted my view in some respects and I am grateful for that.

I just know I (personally) want a GUI for my Mac and I do run a Core wallet for BTC.

I don't think I am the only person averse to command line stuff - and I don't like having money (Monero) on an exchange or in an online wallet.

A GUI will not suddenly increase adoption massively, nope - but it will be one less reason adoption is held back.  Given it's coming at some point, we shall see...

I hope it's soon and of course I hope it does make a difference, I will stand corrected if not.

     The posting on this thread in the past few days is crazy!  Lots of opinions.  Over all everyone has their views on Monero, some more educated than others, some out of new curiosity.  I claim to be no expert but to me I feel everyone has their own intended uses for Monero.  Some are skilled developers, some are skilled or not so skilled traders, some are get rich quick people, while others may just like the idea of decentralization and privacy.  

Right and wrong are in the eye of the beholder.  The more avenues that are developed for Monero the better.  ALL add-ons, third party developments or official development will add value.  I don't want to get sucked into a dogmatic view point on Monero because doing so neglects what other people may like about the coin.

For me I'm just an enthusiast with no real programming or development skills who likes the community and the privacy feature of the coin.  It took me some time via trial and error to figure out how to do certain things with the wallet and daemon but over time I have a better understanding by just doing it every day.  I was even able to build multiple miners over the last 18 months with trial and error and asking those in the know (devs and community have always been very helpful ) I will say though that I am looking forward to some of the one click install features because it will help me to talk with friends that are interested in the coin but have no skill in command line or Linux stuff.  

I  was drawn to the coin initially by its privacy features as I'm tired of centralized banking like in the Federal Reserve. To hell with them and that pimp humanity mentality often held by world banks and top scumbags (banking elite puppets) that run them.

So in conclusion all the development going on right now in Monero is good.  It has exploded as of late and this is a great sign for the future.

I'm looking forward to the 1000 USD Monero party.  I have my ticket already.
https://forum.getmonero.org/14/events/49/1000-usd-monero-party

I don't know why you're telling me all this. All I'm saying is the core GUI will not help wider adoption outside of the crypto space. Within our bubble, sure, a few will be able to run nodes who previously didn't want to fuss with the CLI. But I don't consider that "wider adoption".

I'm not saying the CLI is sufficient and people don't need GUIs. Of course they do. I'm saying an Official^TM GUI bundled with the software will not capture more outside users than a third-party wallet designed for a specific use case.

EDIT: I'm actually surprised that two people replied who still use Bitcoin-QT. Good for you (seriously). I still don't expect outside bitcoin adopters to be using QT.

Agree or disagree with him but I wouldn't question Johnny Mnenomic's understanding or intention.  I always appreciate his posts.

In other news:  Hey look at the price.  Bid size increasing and the # of Moneroj available for sale is decreasing.  inexorable

Such a slow day at work.........................................

@Johnny Mnenomic

You're either naive or you're just micro-fudding for the sake of a short-term trade.

You can't sell a car by saying "This is a car. Do you want it or not?".

The network is ultimately secured by speculators - people injecting money into the system for purposes of profit. This gives rise to a social foundation from which all other objectives can follow.

Look at Dogecoin: Stick a dog on a coin and say "moon!" and suddenly it has a $50 million market cap. Does it work? Fuck no - it was technologically crippled and would have remained that way had Litecoin not saved it. But who cares about any of that if it's going to make you rich.

Speculation energy drives the narrative and facilitates the technological and social fundamentals by way of increased interest.

Show me a coin that is an exception to that. Bitcoin is the same. And so too is Monero.

I'd hazard a guess that many early adopters of Monero are here because they read a single post by someone who looked vaguely intelligent with a nice suit - a post that promised the moon no less.

The fact that the person turned out to be a little bit batshit crazy and started talking about the coming of the Messiah as well as a whole load of other crap is neither here nor there.

The result is that Monero now has a market cap of over $10 million, the 5th biggest crypto community overall, and the biggest community in terms of similarly untraceable competitors.

Whether you realise it or not, this has happened as a consequence of moon-promise which is the predominant driving force of all cryptocurrencies.... at least in terms of caretaking its initial infancy. It doesn't matter when the devs say "Don't buy Monero - it won't make you rich!"... sure I understand why they say that but no-one actually pays attention to it.

So right now, Monero is massively underpriced. People understand that and they are here to profit.

The consequences of that is an incredibly electric community industry that lays down, consolidates and amplifies all concurrent considerations of the tripod - notably the political base and the technological base.

If you're one of the original Monero bods who is used to a small community atmosphere polarised around the kind of techno-geeky pragmatism that says "Meh - it's a GUI - so what?" ... if that's you, then it's time to pull your trousers up, wave the Monero flag and blow a whistle ... because if you don't, everyone else is just about to. The Monero ecosystem has changed and is changing even further.

Don't get caught with your pants down. It's now time for a different type of moon.

New funding idea:

**IMPROVING DEVELOPER GUIDES TO INCLUDE SIMPLEWALLET EXAMPLES**

https://forum.getmonero.org/6/ideas/2504/improving-developer-guides-to-include-simplewallet-examples-and-bitmonerod-methods-and-examples

Up for discussion, hasn't moved to funding required.

I just wanted to comment that I agree with all of the points made below. I am a coder, and I have recently been working on user-friendly R Shiny GUI's because most users do not like the command line. wpalczynski's point is particularly important when you consider we could be talking about a significant chunk of someone's savings. Every user needs to be very confident that they won't lose their money. That is a big leap in a new area of technology.

Add up the volume bars.  I expect that with 4 days time any outstanding shorts will see at least one squeeze.

The current price development is kind of interesting. There should still be a lot of open shorts that need to be covered, right? It is a shame that there are no statistics available from Poloniex.  

That can only happen if and when capital controls or other regulatory/enforcement measures are applied to bitcoin transactions sufficiently to make the use of bitcoin undesirable.  That in turn can only happen if the volume of subject moneyflows in Bitcoin rises to a level which forces regulatory/ enforcement action.  That in turn can only happen in conjunction with a substantial rise in the market clearing price of BTC.  Therefore, as an XMR bull, I expect the fiat price of BTC to rise substantially before the BTC price of XMR sees it's most notable increases.

This factor relates to the model term Rm, which I mentioned previously: The proportion of global "white" label moneyflows which XMR denominates.  In my simplest rule of thumb for XMR valuation, I make the pessimistic assumption that it is nigh zero, negligible, on the theory that bootstrapping the market cap to liquidity levels sufficient for white flows to dominate price will first require a dark market uptake phase, in which price is dominated by Rn.  If Bitcoin is taken up, and subsequently rejected, as a means of evading financial repression, a dark market dominates phase will not be required, however:  Bitcoin will achieve the bootstrapping on our behalf.

These bullish scenarios are not mutually exclusive.  If they occur simultaneously, the appreciation rate will be a real head-turner, and bubble spike will be truly amazing.

On the other hand, Cyprus spiked Bitcoin, but Greece not so much.  (Perhaps because of the grey Russian money in Cyprus being more attuned to crypto.) Which specific cataclysms in the fiat world prompt large flows may prove surprising.  Some disappointing failures of XMR or BTC reactions may cause investor defections.   (If a large subsequent price response occurs, that is likely to be a very intense run as well, as defectors rush back.)

Soonero.

^{Is it true?}

Interesting. I now use BTC as my unit of account (hopefully at some point XMR). I've been debating whether or not to recoup my initial investment in XMR and just let the profits ride, id still have quite a bit. However im finding it difficult to do so. Seems like in the short term BTC & XMR are going in opposite directions. Think i will take that advice and continue to hodl all my moneroj for the time being  

Indeed, you nailed it.

But I am glad it will come out soon (just kidding).  

To me it looks, every time a dumper is out from the market the coin starts rising. Usually when dumpers are out from the markets, the coin basically is dead (pricewise) or max. has a dead cat bounce.
However, Monero seems to want to climb higher and I see the future of this coin pretty bright and indeed even 100 usd/xmr is realistic this year to achieve.

I see many people coming to Monero community. There is 5 pages more than yesterday this is very hot coin at the moment. Price rise is certain, with such increase of interest.

My favorite exchange is Bittrex , but i see bigger volume of Monero trade in Poloniex?

From personal experience, yes to the bolded. 

I found btc 3 years ago because it was useful for playing poker.  Not because of philosophy or being a tech nerd.  Like 99% I was clueless about money.  My first "wallet" was the poker site Seals With Clubs, I kept all my btc there.  Next was Electrum.  Then I found Monero in 2014 while still not knowing much about computers.  The community was very helpful and I was able to set everything up and use it.  I was very cautious so that I wouldn't screw things up.  My own motivation was key.  I didn't download and use the Bitcoin client until a few months ago.  I still mostly use electrum. 

In other news I nibbled @246 while I slept.  This now seems cheap even if it is double from a month ago.  30 day +101.47%  Perspective for those looking for moon.  I speculate these bananas are only going up from here.  inexorable

I think us techies tend to underestimate the issue with the CLI wallet.  Its not so much that people can't figure out how to use it, its not difficult and most people could.  But because we are dealing with money there is apprehension about using something that is not super easy and straight forward, users might think they are more likely to screw something up and lose their funds.

Me too! Id does what it is supposed to do. For Monero, I also have the CLI wallet installed, but I would never get my wife to use it. But she can handle Bitcoin-QT without problems -> GUI wallet is a big deal IMHO.

BTW: there may be a small, shy triangle breakout. Let's see how it develops.

I run QT still  is that bad?