Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1493. (Read 3313576 times)

Interestingly, the Cryptonote whitepaper already mentions a lot of deficiencies:

https://cryptonote.org/whitepaper.pdf

Good point, I am indecisive at this yet  .


Regarding the Alpha male and stress paper, I definitely think Monero has benefited from basically existing outside the pecking order for some time. It gave the devs time to study the stress of Bitcoin and find long term solutions:

Good point, I am indecisive at this yet.

BTW, (a maybe naive analysis follows) I think that ETH and BTC are direct competitors (like XRP & BTC in the past) but on the other hand XMR & BTC are more of a good pair.

I mean, it is of XMRs best interest 1) BTC adoption to increase as much as possible and people use XMR as laundry, 2) XMR should not become No1 to draw attention.

There is an interesting paper somewhere in the internet on how the Alpha male and the lowest ones in the pyramid suffer the most stress.
The best position to hold is actually No2, all the stress at No1 and you still enjoy big rewards from being the second in rank.
Who would you rather be, Putin or Medvedev?

On the other hand (win win for XMR) if Bitcoin goes bust, XMR is the next most logical substitute for it (in terms of store of value, decentralisation etc).
Actually it may be best couple with ETH (that will most probably become the new King) than with BTC.

That said I agree with Anonymint that Monero is not at all perfect but good enough. Regarding his fundamental analysis on the other ones, I won't argue but there are a LOT of worthless stocks that are not worth currently valued at 0$ in the stock market. I think all of these coins are way better choices to invest than in 90% of the stocks in NYSE/NASDAQ.

I think it is a better measurement calculating Monero's value in USD for example. Bitcoin does not yet have a stable value.
If Monero's market cap remains 10 million USD this year, but Bitcoin goes to 10 billion USD. Does that mean a lower low for Monero?

If 0.0034 was the top of this rally, expect lower lows though...

I am not completely aware of all the possibilities XMR enables but for me personally it is a store of value. If I invest for instance 25 % of each rental cheque (after taxes and other fees) into XMR, it means XMR is partially backed by appartments in Finland.
And perhaps later in US if I decide to start a real estate investing company in US. I have some contacts there already.

We don't even have a fishing industry yet!

I am saying 5 million marketcap for XMR is nothing.
100 million marketcap neither is nothing. No currency has such a low market cap. I am not familiar with Krona of Iceland but I guess the marketcap of even that small currency based on fishing industry is more than 1 billion usd.

I think TPTB was actualy bullish on Monero in his own super bearish overall sentiment way. Everything will crash but Monero has the best chances of not crashing as much or maybe not at all kind of...

I think it is hard to figure out how many people are invested in XMR.
Try to buy XMR worth of 5000 usd and look at price chart what happens. Probably you are making a candle.
I am saying, 5 million marketcap is a marketcap that is supported when there is very little interest in XMR. That has been a solid rock bottom and personally I consider it a low probability event to go there anymore (unless btc will crash big time), that would need XMR should drop to 0.001-0.0012 levels and below when new coins are mined.
Of course I might be wrong here but I am playing with probabilities, and if you think the current marketcap is too high for XMR in the long run, then by all means, sell or even go to short position. I can lend you some Moneros if you need. 

My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell.

The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  ).

Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales).

Does anyone have a good hold on what it cost to mine XMR?

That would be a good gauge of price.

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.14112660

I wonder why not. It at least has some intrinsic value compared to fiat for example, which people do use to buy stuff or keep their savings in.
Besides the speculative price swings, won't the price of a bitcoin/monero be close to it's mining costs (c.q. a derivative from the hashrate)?

Okay, my bad. 

Yes, I think XMR is definetely larger in 2 years than it is now. However, I am aiming world dominance and that might take more than 2 years because sometimes people are slow in their decisions. It took me 1-2 years to buy my first silver round after I heard the silver related propaganda of Risto.

I can do some market making but I am not thinking of doing it now when XMR is still so tiny.
When 1 xmr is like 1000 usd I might do it with smaller scale (like 10 000-20 000 usd). When XMR grows to bigger size (like 1000 000 usd/XMR) I will find marketmaking more useful. These levels even smaller guys can do it, all you need is a tiny bit of money and a lot of time. Money I have enough but I do not find it profitable enough timewise when the volumes are low and XMR is moving like a beast. After all, we are still in accumulation zone and the accumulators tend to eat the stack of market maker.

One trillion is 10^12 in the US.

I love your fantastic speculation,   but regarding the first bit, I speculate that you are off by an order of magnitude.   2 years should suffice to soil the fan, in my view.