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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1565. (Read 3313576 times)

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 03, 2016, 01:00:18 PM
The GUI project is fully funded now in less then a day !!

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

What is the expected release date for this?

Not a specific one. He will start with 10 hours per week, until his other project is finished. After that, he will work 20 hours (perhaps even more) per week. The announcement states this as well:

Quote
Ilya will work 10 hours per week at the beginning, expanding into more hours per week later when some other project is finished.

The announcement also states:

Quote
The hours that remain after having completed the GUI will be used to work on other features. There should be a better estimate of hours needed to complete the GUI once the work really has started.

My personal guess is +- 2-3 months. Take this with a bit of a grain of salt though.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
February 03, 2016, 11:10:50 AM
...

Thanks. That means it's not solved at all (which is ashame of course, but good for Monero).

I do like they dont have a tail emission (I hate that in Monero, smells like Keynsianism, just secure the chain with fees).

The tail emission of Monero places the inflation rate of Monero below the historical inflation rate of gold which after all is the "gold standard" of hard money of Austrian school economists. If anyone has a solution to both secure the chain only with fees and at the same time allow for an adaptive blocksize limit there are many in the Bitcoin community that would love to see this solution. This is after all the real issue behind the blocksize debate in Bitcoin.

 

Securing the chain only with fees is fixed. Just don't increase the block size. People don't seem to listen to this because they want their damn coffee on the chain for some reason.

With Bitcoin you can make secure payments. You have to pay for that. Only make transactions that need that high level of security.

small bocks will lead to bitcoin banks who will process transactions for you.
Not really desirable imho.

For small transactions extremely desirable. For big transactions not. It works out perfectly Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
February 03, 2016, 07:45:43 AM
...

Thanks. That means it's not solved at all (which is ashame of course, but good for Monero).

I do like they dont have a tail emission (I hate that in Monero, smells like Keynsianism, just secure the chain with fees).

The tail emission of Monero places the inflation rate of Monero below the historical inflation rate of gold which after all is the "gold standard" of hard money of Austrian school economists. If anyone has a solution to both secure the chain only with fees and at the same time allow for an adaptive blocksize limit there are many in the Bitcoin community that would love to see this solution. This is after all the real issue behind the blocksize debate in Bitcoin.

 

Securing the chain only with fees is fixed. Just don't increase the block size. People don't seem to listen to this because they want their damn coffee on the chain for some reason.

With Bitcoin you can make secure payments. You have to pay for that. Only make transactions that need that high level of security.

small bocks will lead to bitcoin banks who will process transactions for you.
Not really desirable imho.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
February 03, 2016, 07:32:09 AM
The GUI project is fully funded now in less then a day !!

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

What is the expected release date for this?
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
February 03, 2016, 07:30:42 AM
...

Thanks. That means it's not solved at all (which is ashame of course, but good for Monero).

I do like they dont have a tail emission (I hate that in Monero, smells like Keynsianism, just secure the chain with fees).

The tail emission of Monero places the inflation rate of Monero below the historical inflation rate of gold which after all is the "gold standard" of hard money of Austrian school economists. If anyone has a solution to both secure the chain only with fees and at the same time allow for an adaptive blocksize limit there are many in the Bitcoin community that would love to see this solution. This is after all the real issue behind the blocksize debate in Bitcoin.

 

Securing the chain only with fees is fixed. Just don't increase the block size. People don't seem to listen to this because they want their damn coffee on the chain for some reason.

With Bitcoin you can make secure payments. You have to pay for that. Only make transactions that need that high level of security.
hero member
Activity: 768
Merit: 505
February 03, 2016, 07:19:33 AM
The GUI project is fully funded now in less then a day !!

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
February 03, 2016, 07:06:01 AM
If people with a lot of assets in the future decide to use anonymous cryptocurrencies to store a large part of their wealth, will they choose a coin that has been around for years but still has a low market cap? Or will they choose a newer coin (that will inevitably pop up) that promises newer technology, etc?

Are you currently putting most of your cryptocurrency allocation in bitcoin or some random altcoin with some enhanced bitcoin protocol features? By answering that question you answer your own question.

If I had to secure my wealth, I would definitely store it in something that has been around and proven itself for a long time: gold, classic cars, paintings, you name it. Sure not the new Picasso, how fancy it may look at this brief moment in time.

but that's exactly the point. Monero has not succeeded after so many years (remember, we're assuming that people's attentions will turn to anon coins AFTER bitcoin (or some fork of it) goes mainstream), can you really call it trustworthy?

This is a phenomenon observed in VC-funded start-ups. It's OK when you're still making $0 revenue. Because you can claim that your company is still building up, and it'll start to have hockey-stick growth any day now.

But once you have some revenue, that is very low, suddenly your company's valuation will become much lower, and it's much harder to get higher stage funding.
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 3523
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
February 03, 2016, 06:18:52 AM
If people with a lot of assets in the future decide to use anonymous cryptocurrencies to store a large part of their wealth, will they choose a coin that has been around for years but still has a low market cap? Or will they choose a newer coin (that will inevitably pop up) that promises newer technology, etc?

Are you currently putting most of your cryptocurrency allocation in bitcoin or some random altcoin with some enhanced bitcoin protocol features? By answering that question you answer your own question.

If I had to secure my wealth, I would definitely store it in something that has been around and proven itself for a long time: gold, classic cars, paintings, you name it. Sure not the new Picasso, how fancy it may look at this brief moment in time.

I really like Monero because of the anonymity part at the heart of the protocol. Why do I need reveal who I am and where I live when, for example, donating to the Monero GUI development? I think that is absurd, and that is why I try to support the Monero development. Whatever happens, all the Monero research and development currently done contributes to a better and more private financial future.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
February 03, 2016, 06:05:22 AM
regarding the additional coins out of nothing due to a bug: i dont think Zcash is the only technology that has this issue, but i can not find the place where TPTB_need_war and Shen discussed it. At least i remember TPTB_need_war claiming ringCT have this issue too, or does my mind play me a trick here?

Any coin that does not have full visibility and tracing is going to have this to some extent, but in practice it will vary a bit.

In zerocash since you literally can't see anything about the state of the ledger (by design, and that is a feature), there is zero possibility of detecting such a bug/exploit should it occur (other than finding the method yourself). Zerocash also has the possibility of the setup being exploited or botched, however unlikely that may seem, allowing invisible coin creation, an issue that doesn't exist with the others.

With something like ringct, where the origin is ambiguous and the amount is hidden and even regular ring sigs just the origin is ambiguous, in some cases, if a bug like that did exist, it would be visible (which would make it not really a usable exploit). But in other cases it might not be visible.

The math and code in these latter cases (ringct and regular rings) is much, much simpler then zerocash as well, so the risk of such a bug even existing is probably lower (though it is hard to assess such a thing precisely -- it mostly comes down to judgement).
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
February 03, 2016, 06:00:58 AM
I've been thinking, is monero a bit too ahead of its time?

Now I know this is a lot of assumptions, some of which might not be true, but I think they're reasonable and good assumptions:

1. Some sort of anonymous coin WILL succeed, if cryptocurrencies are here to stay. With people like Mike Hearn declaring Bitcoin has failed, and really traction slowing down, it's not an absolute guarantee that cryptocurrencies won't become a passing fad yet.

2. Most "normal" people don't need full anonymity. They don't mind/don't realize that their data might be taken advantage of by governments/big businesses. This will remain that way at least for the next while. Maybe the next generation will care about privacy more.

So the biggest use-cases for an anonymous coin currently is 1. illegal dealings, like drugs, weapons, tax evasion, etc and 2. hiding assets. For example, a lottery winner might want to remain anonymous. Or people who do illegal dealings/tax evasion etc might also want to hide their assets. Basically for Rich people. This would help an anonymous coin get a potentially huge market cap.

3. Crypto currencies have benefits over current methods for hiding assets, because it's a lot easier to do than setting up off-shore accounts, and its a lot more accessible and secure. But these rich people will want to tie huge amounts of assets in something that might end up dying in a few years.

4. Because of the above, it seems VERY likely that the anonymous coin that succeeds (or the first one, if multiple ends up succeeding) will be after bitcoin has already established itself well in mainstream media etc, and most people think that it's here to stay (like the internet).

So if an anon coin will succeed AFTER bitcoin, then is monero too early? I mean there are benefits of being early because you already have some support/development/network effects. But at the same time, it's not that much. If people with a lot of assets in the future decide to use anonymous cryptocurrencies to store a large part of their wealth, will they choose a coin that has been around for years but still has a low market cap? Or will they choose a newer coin (that will inevitably pop up) that promises newer technology, etc?

Would it have been better if monero (or for any anon coin that wishes to succeed, for that matter), to somehow try to time when to announce the project and enter the market?
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 500
hello world
February 03, 2016, 04:56:02 AM
I have to agree with smooth here, the social contract was never changed in this regard. also the tail emission has been communicated transparently from the start. but i can understand, i also had one of those moments where everything was clear for everyone, but the info somehow never reached me. than the day i found out, i felt pissed(it was on what the viewkey exactly shows in my case)

regarding the additional coins out of nothing due to a bug: i dont think Zcash is the only technology that has this issue, but i can not find the place where TPTB_need_war and Shen discussed it. At least i remember TPTB_need_war claiming ringCT have this issue too, or does my mind play me a trick here?

i dont want to spread FUD here or so, but i think its good we answer this question once and for all. mabye it allready got finnaly answered and i never noticed?
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
February 03, 2016, 04:34:21 AM
But in Monero's case, you tail-emission supporters broke *the* single biggest implicit contract: don't change the supply dynamics!! I loathe the fact that I bought-in to one economic model in 2014 and then a bunch of economic-meddlers decided to change the model out from under me. Yes, it's small relative to my holdings, but quite the slippery slope. That might as well be fiat, and the move *drastically* reduced my respect for the coin, the developers, and the community.

You bought in when exactly? Because the tail reward language was included in the original Monero OP from the initial instant of its creation on 2014-04-25. You might have a case if you were the bolded trade from the OTC thread below:

Quote
2000 MRO @ 0.000250 2014-04-24 02:03:21
2000 MRO @ 0.000400 2014-04-23 00:23:41
1000 MRO @ 0.000500 2014-04-22 03:57:27

Those, along with two auctions I ran that week (won by eizh and SlyWax) are the only known trades that occurred before the Monero OP (during the 5-day Bitmonero era).

You can't be one of the last two because those were both NoodleDoodle selling to eizh. I also suspect the first one was NWO buying from
pandher so you probably aren't that one either, but that isn't clear from the OTC thread.

If that trade is not you, then you may have misunderstood the economic model, but it was not changed out from under you.

ZOMG Monero was insta-traded and ninja-auctioned!!!1111!


Brings back the memory of the OTC charts I made Cheesy


The volume below 0.001 BTC was very small.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
February 03, 2016, 03:54:08 AM
But in Monero's case, you tail-emission supporters broke *the* single biggest implicit contract: don't change the supply dynamics!! I loathe the fact that I bought-in to one economic model in 2014 and then a bunch of economic-meddlers decided to change the model out from under me. Yes, it's small relative to my holdings, but quite the slippery slope. That might as well be fiat, and the move *drastically* reduced my respect for the coin, the developers, and the community.

You bought in when exactly? Because the tail reward language was included in the original Monero OP from the initial instant of its creation on 2014-04-25. You might have a case if you were the bolded trade from the OTC thread below:

Quote
2000 MRO @ 0.000250 2014-04-24 02:03:21
2000 MRO @ 0.000400 2014-04-23 00:23:41
1000 MRO @ 0.000500 2014-04-22 03:57:27

Those, along with two auctions I ran that week (won by eizh and SlyWax) are the only known trades that occurred before the Monero OP (during the 5-day Bitmonero era).

You can't be one of the last two because those were both NoodleDoodle selling to eizh. I also suspect the first one was NWO buying from
pandher so you probably aren't that one either, but that isn't clear from the OTC thread.

If that trade is not you, then you may have misunderstood the economic model, but it was not changed out from under you.

Maybe he bought in by spending time and money mining.

Of course it is impossible to know for sure but I'd find it surprising if he were involved, had such strong feelings about changing economics, and didn't even make his opinion heard when, for example, changes to the emissions and block time was discussed pre-launch and during the first week (though no changes were made).

Other than people following Bytecoin (which all of us were) most others found out about Monero when rpietila started talking about it, a month or so later, or possibly a bit earlier when it started getting listed on exchanges.

Just frankly more likely he misunderstood what he was buying.


hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
February 03, 2016, 02:57:55 AM
But in Monero's case, you tail-emission supporters broke *the* single biggest implicit contract: don't change the supply dynamics!! I loathe the fact that I bought-in to one economic model in 2014 and then a bunch of economic-meddlers decided to change the model out from under me. Yes, it's small relative to my holdings, but quite the slippery slope. That might as well be fiat, and the move *drastically* reduced my respect for the coin, the developers, and the community.

You bought in when exactly? Because the tail reward language was included in the original Monero OP from the initial instant of its creation on 2014-04-25. You might have a case if you were the bolded trade from the OTC thread below:

Quote
2000 MRO @ 0.000250 2014-04-24 02:03:21
2000 MRO @ 0.000400 2014-04-23 00:23:41
1000 MRO @ 0.000500 2014-04-22 03:57:27

Those, along with two auctions I ran that week (won by eizh and SlyWax) are the only known trades that occurred before the Monero OP (during the 5-day Bitmonero era).

You can't be one of the last two because those were both NoodleDoodle selling to eizh. I also suspect the first one was NWO buying from
pandher so you probably aren't that one either, but that isn't clear from the OTC thread.

If that trade is not you, then you may have misunderstood the economic model, but it was not changed out from under you.

Maybe he bought in by spending time and money mining.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
February 02, 2016, 11:57:29 PM

Thanks. That means it's not solved at all (which is ashame of course, but good for Monero).

I do like they dont have a tail emission (I hate that in Monero, smells like Keynsianism, just secure the chain with fees).

It IS an experimental project to a large degree, but it certainly is not Keynesianism (continuous intervention and stabilisation policies). It's everything but. XMR has a predetermined tail-emission. It is still the same in 5 years, 10 years, 25 years (forking etc. notwithstanding). There is no lowering of emission if liquidity is low. You are free to choose which chain you want to use.

Actually gold has very similar emission schedule:
Annually a certain percent of new gold has been discovered to the existing gold supply.
full member
Activity: 231
Merit: 100
February 02, 2016, 11:00:26 PM

Thanks. That means it's not solved at all (which is ashame of course, but good for Monero).

I do like they dont have a tail emission (I hate that in Monero, smells like Keynsianism, just secure the chain with fees).

It IS an experimental project to a large degree, but it certainly is not Keynesianism (continuous intervention and stabilisation policies). It's everything but. XMR has a predetermined tail-emission. It is still the same in 5 years, 10 years, 25 years (forking etc. notwithstanding). There is no lowering of emission if liquidity is low. You are free to choose which chain you want to use.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
February 02, 2016, 10:45:24 PM
But in Monero's case, you tail-emission supporters broke *the* single biggest implicit contract: don't change the supply dynamics!! I loathe the fact that I bought-in to one economic model in 2014 and then a bunch of economic-meddlers decided to change the model out from under me. Yes, it's small relative to my holdings, but quite the slippery slope. That might as well be fiat, and the move *drastically* reduced my respect for the coin, the developers, and the community.

You bought in when exactly? Because the tail reward language was included in the original Monero OP from the initial instant of its creation on 2014-04-25. You might have a case if you were the bolded trade from the OTC thread below:

Quote
2000 MRO @ 0.000250 2014-04-24 02:03:21
2000 MRO @ 0.000400 2014-04-23 00:23:41
1000 MRO @ 0.000500 2014-04-22 03:57:27

Those, along with two auctions I ran that week (won by eizh and SlyWax) are the only known trades that occurred before the Monero OP (during the 5-day Bitmonero era).

You can't be one of the last two because those were both NoodleDoodle selling to eizh. I also suspect the first one was NWO buying from
pandher so you probably aren't that one either, but that isn't clear from the OTC thread.

If that trade is not you, then you may have misunderstood the economic model, but it was not changed out from under you.

ZOMG Monero was insta-traded and ninja-auctioned!!!1111!
full member
Activity: 231
Merit: 100
February 02, 2016, 10:28:33 PM
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
February 02, 2016, 09:40:25 PM
But in Monero's case, you tail-emission supporters broke *the* single biggest implicit contract: don't change the supply dynamics!! I loathe the fact that I bought-in to one economic model in 2014 and then a bunch of economic-meddlers decided to change the model out from under me. Yes, it's small relative to my holdings, but quite the slippery slope. That might as well be fiat, and the move *drastically* reduced my respect for the coin, the developers, and the community.

You bought in when exactly? Because the tail reward language was included in the original Monero OP from the initial instant of its creation on 2014-04-25. You might have a case if you were the bolded trade from the OTC thread below:

Quote
2000 MRO @ 0.000250 2014-04-24 02:03:21
2000 MRO @ 0.000400 2014-04-23 00:23:41
1000 MRO @ 0.000500 2014-04-22 03:57:27

Those, along with two auctions I ran that week (won by eizh and SlyWax) are the only known trades that occurred before the Monero OP (during the 5-day Bitmonero era).

You can't be one of the last two because those were both NoodleDoodle selling to eizh. I also suspect the first one was NWO buying from
pandher so you probably aren't that one either, but that isn't clear from the OTC thread.

If that trade is not you, then you may have misunderstood the economic model, but it was not changed out from under you.

legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
February 02, 2016, 09:31:38 PM
...

[2] Yes they still have that problem, there is no way to verify if no additional coins were created.

^ This is the biggest problem in my opinion. They need a satisfactory answer to this question or else it's going to be pretty problematic down the road. Any significant swing in price (to the downside, of course), will generate all sorts of "OMG, where are all these coins coming from!?" uncertainty...



[1] Zcash will not have a tail emission:
...
This will result in severe problems in the future. Stating that there will be Zcash mining rewards for decades is kind of a poor argument, because people take the view / expectation (of no tail emission), discount it to the present and take it into consideration when assessing Zcash.


I disagree with you on this one (and I think I owe you a response on Reddit, now that I think of it). In short, I think this is at best an open question, but if it turns out there is any orphan risk or marginal-cost-per-tx, and/or if miners don't actually compete, longrun, on mostly the commodity block-production anyway, then this just amounts to unnecessary economic meddling, and I hate it that people are so quick to justify this sort of thing.

That said, it's money supply transparency that matters most, so if a coins comes with a tail-emission out of the gate, that's fine (except for the above caveat about it suggesting the devs/community may be prone to over-engineering in the economic realm).

But in Monero's case, you tail-emission supporters broke *the* single biggest implicit contract: don't change the supply dynamics!! I loathe the fact that I bought-in to one economic model in 2014 and then a bunch of economic-meddlers decided to change the model out from under me. Yes, it's small relative to my holdings, but quite the slippery slope. That might as well be fiat, and the move *drastically* reduced my respect for the coin, the developers, and the community.


[2] Zcash will not have a smooth block reward:
...
In my opinion, the halving schedule of Bitcoin just creates wild fluctations in price (e.g. bubbles) and (potentially dangerous) large fluctations in hashrate.

I think that's a small potential issue. Transparency is the key; a free-market with good information symmetry should naturally solve for this. What's important is not screwing with key economic variables (you know, like supply) and leaving it to the market to the work out the details.



[3] Zcash will incur the same blocksize issue as Bitcoin, they plan on simply porting everything regarding blocksize from Bitcoin:

Yeah, I think Zooko's missing an opportunity to take the obvious approach of implementing something reasonable like Stephen Pair's simple adaptive size, or something like Monero's alg. By *not* doing something like that, I fear the ZC team agrees too much with bitcoin core-dev's broken ideas about using blocksize as to do econo-engineering.


[4] Due to their "Founder Reward" it is highly likely that Zcash will be subject to FinCEN and therefore miners will be qualified as MSBs, see this discussion:

The founder reward strikes me as too high, and yeah, who knows what the regulatory implications may be.

[5] Zcash cryptography is in its infancy stage and has not been vetted yet, therefore it's more prone to "errorrs". By contrast, the cryptography behind Monero is quite mature and has been vetted over time.

Seems minor to me, but hard for me to truly judge without being a cryptographer.
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