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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1580. (Read 3313576 times)

sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 500
hello world
January 20, 2016, 10:40:43 AM
dont show fear now, now or never mustangs!!   Cool

lets burn those shorters.

volume good(!!!), liquidity coming too. lets rock this
sr. member
Activity: 283
Merit: 250
January 20, 2016, 10:14:19 AM
Everyone who was complaining earlier about missing the boat, here's your second chance Smiley Currently seems like an overreaction tbh
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
January 20, 2016, 10:11:00 AM
Interestingly the price of XMR in USD is still only 52.5c. Just not a big change really.



I surely thought there would be more fanfare around this price action. I think we have ourselves in a closed loop of "well its steady on USD" so when it goes down in BTC terms, there's confidence that its still holding value, and those that care about USD value don't understand all the moaning and groaning with the "ermagerd why's it dropping". And then when it goes up in BTC its because BTC is going down in USD, then the "BTC price is the only thing that matters" crowd gets very quiet.
* GingerAle confused



I am a bit confused too, seems like a lot of traders are dumping Monero to catch the BTC train. It baffles me why, because if you simply hold on to your alts and do not dump them, the BTC ratio won't go down and therefore the USD value will increase as well.

Since 12:00 (UTC), when the BTC rally started, nearly 60k Monero was dumped.

EDIT: 4h candles show -7.54% for Monero (XMR/BTC) and +9.08% for Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
January 20, 2016, 09:56:39 AM
Interestingly the price of XMR in USD is still only 52.5c. Just not a big change really.



I surely thought there would be more fanfare around this price action. I think we have ourselves in a closed loop of "well its steady on USD" so when it goes down in BTC terms, there's confidence that its still holding value, and those that care about USD value don't understand all the moaning and groaning with the "ermagerd why's it dropping". And then when it goes up in BTC its because BTC is going down in USD, then the "BTC price is the only thing that matters" crowd gets very quiet.
* GingerAle confused

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
January 20, 2016, 04:17:17 AM
Interestingly the price of XMR in USD is still only 52.5c. Just not a big change really.

legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
January 20, 2016, 04:13:10 AM
looks like a temp spike up ...may go into the 0.0015-0.002 range...while bitcoin is pulling back.

But I also expect it to come back when bitcoin rises again...

UP.....DOWN....DANYO SAN!
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
January 20, 2016, 02:54:39 AM
And the upcoming fair relaunch of Dash Classic can't be helping!

ANN thread?




[ANN] thread and website debut will coincide with Evolusham "demo" in Miami.

PM if you want to help relaunch Dash fairly, without an instamine and shady Foundation.

Let's return to the original vision of Darkcoin!
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
January 19, 2016, 10:29:10 PM
Anyone kicking himself for not having bought as much as they were planning to, during this long plateau we seem to leave now?

Set my orders to low and didn't get much before the upswing. Smiley C'est la vie.
hero member
Activity: 833
Merit: 1001
January 19, 2016, 09:43:52 PM
aaand the bitch war against bitcoin goes on... this time Vivek Wadhwa..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2016/01/19/r-i-p-bitcoin-its-time-to-move-on/
http://techcrunch.com/2016/01/19/is-bitcoins-promise-going-up-in-smoke/

good thing loaded up right around 0.0010xx levels... feels good so far..
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
January 19, 2016, 08:56:51 PM
Shorts are being bent over and spanked.  New monthly high achievement unlocked.

There are hardly any shorts (despite no shortage of people who talk as if they would). I've watched the lending market and seen almost no demand, and relatively little supply.

There may be off-exchange shorts, for example, people who sold hoping to buy lower, and are now risking a spanking by the FOMO paddle.

I saw available for lending XMR go up to ~50k (a new high) before the our rally started, when Dash was still spiking.

Now the ~0% almost free ones are long gone, we're down to ~30k, and my offers are being nibbled gobbled.

I concede you watch the market more closely than I, but IMO there are ~10-20k XMR in (deeply underwater) short positions.

Okay 10-20k = 14-28 BTC = hardly any to me.

Volume is 175 BTC today. So 10-20K XMR in shorts needing to cover (all in one day) wouldn't account for much of that. I wouldn't want to be them though.


Loan offers down to 28.5k.  Loan rates rising very quickly from here.

~15k in short covering is enough to eat the wall protecting 0.00145.

But bids above 14 are thin.  Very exciting!   Cool

Speculation: Dash being suppressed as XMR loan fees require constant liquidation of scamcoin collateral.  And the upcoming fair relaunch of Dash Classic can't be helping!

You can see the total offers over time here -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

It seems indeed various traders are taking out loans and putting them in front of the wall (the 11.5k). In addition, like I said before, various bots are also placing asks in front of the wall. Therefore, it induces (major) resistance currently. I think it will significantly break out once we tear down that wall.

EDIT: Weighted average borrow/interest rate is currently between 0.85% and 0.95%, whereas it was between 0.01% and 0.03% yesterday. This confirms a lot of shorts are taken out currently.

Thank you for the analysis
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
January 19, 2016, 07:30:36 PM
Shorts are being bent over and spanked.  New monthly high achievement unlocked.

There are hardly any shorts (despite no shortage of people who talk as if they would). I've watched the lending market and seen almost no demand, and relatively little supply.

There may be off-exchange shorts, for example, people who sold hoping to buy lower, and are now risking a spanking by the FOMO paddle.

I saw available for lending XMR go up to ~50k (a new high) before the our rally started, when Dash was still spiking.

Now the ~0% almost free ones are long gone, we're down to ~30k, and my offers are being nibbled gobbled.

I concede you watch the market more closely than I, but IMO there are ~10-20k XMR in (deeply underwater) short positions.

Okay 10-20k = 14-28 BTC = hardly any to me.

Volume is 175 BTC today. So 10-20K XMR in shorts needing to cover (all in one day) wouldn't account for much of that. I wouldn't want to be them though.


Loan offers down to 28.5k.  Loan rates rising very quickly from here.

~15k in short covering is enough to eat the wall protecting 0.00145.

But bids above 14 are thin.  Very exciting!   Cool

Speculation: Dash being suppressed as XMR loan fees require constant liquidation of scamcoin collateral.  And the upcoming fair relaunch of Dash Classic can't be helping!

You can see the total offers over time here -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

It seems indeed various traders are taking out loans and putting them in front of the wall (the 11.5k). In addition, like I said before, various bots are also placing asks in front of the wall. Therefore, it induces (major) resistance currently. I think it will significantly break out once we tear down that wall.

EDIT: Weighted average borrow/interest rate is currently between 0.85% and 0.95%, whereas it was between 0.01% and 0.03% yesterday. This confirms a lot of shorts are taken out currently.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
January 19, 2016, 07:29:18 PM
And the upcoming fair relaunch of Dash Classic can't be helping!

ANN thread?
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
January 19, 2016, 07:26:54 PM
Has it forked again ? Difficulty is way lower than it usually is! Expecting all time low (low 4xxx 's) 8 hours from now...

I see no evidence of a fork. Seems like the usual fluctuations, although i would agree it is odd to see the difficulty dropping as the price is rising. Good time to mine.


It's far from usual, hover over the current rate/time then look a week or a month back, it is usually in the 8xx range..
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart
I'm expecting 45xxx in 8 hours..

If it would really go that low it would be a bit unusual indeed, but so far it looks pretty normal.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 262
January 19, 2016, 07:18:52 PM
Don't tell me BCX will finally make good on his threat  Embarrassed
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
January 19, 2016, 07:18:13 PM
Shorts are being bent over and spanked.  New monthly high achievement unlocked.

There are hardly any shorts (despite no shortage of people who talk as if they would). I've watched the lending market and seen almost no demand, and relatively little supply.

There may be off-exchange shorts, for example, people who sold hoping to buy lower, and are now risking a spanking by the FOMO paddle.

I saw available for lending XMR go up to ~50k (a new high) before the our rally started, when Dash was still spiking.

Now the ~0% almost free ones are long gone, we're down to ~30k, and my offers are being nibbled gobbled.

I concede you watch the market more closely than I, but IMO there are ~10-20k XMR in (deeply underwater) short positions.

Okay 10-20k = 14-28 BTC = hardly any to me.

Volume is 175 BTC today. So 10-20K XMR in shorts needing to cover (all in one day) wouldn't account for much of that. I wouldn't want to be them though.


Loan offers down to 28.5k.  Loan rates rising very quickly from here.

~15k in short covering is enough to eat the wall protecting 0.00145.

But bids above 14 are thin.  Very exciting!   Cool

Speculation: Dash being suppressed as XMR loan fees require constant liquidation of scamcoin collateral.  And the upcoming fair relaunch of Dash Classic can't be helping!
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
January 19, 2016, 06:49:31 PM
@primer- I didn't mean in magnitude, just that fact that it fluctuates by as much as 50% frequently.

Clearly the hash rate is lower now than it has been even with lower prices. That is unusual. As I said, likely a good time to mine. Gentlemen, start your miners!


legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
January 19, 2016, 06:47:11 PM
Has it forked again ? Difficulty is way lower than it usually is! Expecting all time low (low 4xxx 's) 8 hours from now...

I see no evidence of a fork. Seems like the usual fluctuations, although i would agree it is odd to see the difficulty dropping as the price is rising. Good time to mine.


It's far from usual, hover over the current rate/time then look a week or a month back, it is usually in the 8xx range..
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart
I'm expecting 45xxx in 8 hours..
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
January 19, 2016, 06:25:08 PM
Has it forked again ? Difficulty is way lower than it usually is! Expecting all time low (low 4xxx 's) 8 hours from now...

I see no evidence of a fork. Seems like the usual fluctuations, although i would agree it is odd to see the difficulty dropping as the price is rising. Good time to mine.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
January 19, 2016, 06:12:07 PM
I noticed most bots are setting there asks in front of that 11.5k wall, therefore creating (huge) resistance. So, time to tear that wall down  Cool
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
January 19, 2016, 06:06:06 PM
Has it forked again ? Difficulty is way lower than it usually is! Expecting all time low (low 4xxx 's) 8 hours from now...
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