Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1581. (Read 3313576 times)

Okay 10-20k = 14-28 BTC = hardly any to me.

Volume is 175 BTC today. So 10-20K XMR in shorts needing to cover (all in one day) wouldn't account for much of that. I wouldn't want to be them though.

I saw available for lending XMR go up to ~50k (a new high) before the our rally started, when Dash was still spiking.

Now the ~0% almost free ones are long gone, we're down to ~30k, and my offers are being nibbled gobbled.

I concede you watch the market more closely than I, but IMO there are ~10-20k XMR in (deeply underwater) short positions.

Nope.  I went 'all in' by rebalancing my 50/50 BTC/XMR position in the 0.0010 to 0.0012 range.

I'm very satisfied with that decision, and now very happy to lend my XMR to anyone brave enough to short the market.

It's like proof of stake, but without all the shitty side effects (besides trusting Polo).   


Oh snap!  That's epic.  How did I miss it?  IRC?

I'm kicking myself for not buying more than I planned to.


"All i know is bitcoin is http, and monero is https."  moneromooo

In addition to increasing CryptoNote to CryptoNote liquidity (Poloniex offers the most CryptoNote trading pairs but is missing Aeon) convincing Shapeshift to accept Boolberry and Aeon will increase resiliency for everyone in case any existing exchanges close down or implement more burdensome restrictions on their customers (identification documents, trading restrictions, etc).

More liquidity for CryptoNote coins on Shapeshift should in theory lead to both better prices and higher exchange limits. Please show your support by contacting Shapeshift if you agree.

https://twitter.com/XMRpromotions/status/689328498893144064

I have made efforts to contact other exchanges regarding Monero but no news (that I am aware of) is imminent. More large exchanges are likely to add us in time but it will not happen overnight. China should be an important focus for us this year.

It provides resiliency, even if largely unused. Dash trading was potentially disrupted by the implosion of Cryptsy and the delisting on Bitfinex. Fortunately they could just move over almost instantly to Poloniex and Bittrex, which previously had very little Dash trading.

300k easy 

Short-term performance doesn't indicate anything about the future. Every rational speculator knows this.

Perhaps Monero will benefit from chaos and uncertainty in Bitcoin, and given such a small market cap might be ripe for pump & dump by the Chinese or whomever. This is what speculators often wait for and are actually just pretending to themself (or to the group) that they really have any acumen to pick and manage long-term plans with serious marketing.

I could have made a lot of easy money last year if I had just played this game and watched very carefully what I wrote and did not write. But I am not interested in pumps & dumps.

Edit: the problem is that in theory no one has been able to amass a large quantity of Monero at near 0 cost (e.g. no premine), thus no one has an incentive (nor the control over the float) to do the pump & dump.

And nasal snot is Vicks. I still can't sell my snot.

Very loose analogies are almost always misleading.

Marketing is about drilling down to the details.

Anyone kicking himself for not having bought as much as they were planning to, during this long plateau we seem to leave now?

no one knows what the future holds.

I doubt when the WWW was dreamed up that the developer thought "people are going to look at cat videos using this, and some company is going to track their viewing habits and somehow package that and sell it to another company"

I speculate that we have no idea what cryptocurrency networks will really be used for, and how it will be monetized.

All i know is bitcoin is http, and monero is https*

* credit moneromooo

A captain without a map and compass (or a clear night sky) can get lost in a sea of wrong turns.


The marketing should begin with the design of the product. If the marketing and the design are not in sync, nothing is likely to work out.


Chinese investors who have a strong desire to invest in crypto already know about Monero.

The issues of why they are not investing in droves in Monero will be the same as why Western investors are not. My guess is because anonymity is not a very realistic feature for anyone. Who needs to use it? I would like to use anonymity to maintain my privacy from Uncle Sam, but I certainly can't trust Cryptonote's vulnerabilities to metadata correlation and systemic combinatorial analysis. I'd be crazy to risk jail time trusting that.

I only see highly criminal markets for Cryptonote, who tolerate such risk as their profession demands. Those are not who I want to be marketing too and in the company of.

I'd like to see really strong anonymity such as Zerocash, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that only a popular activity can resist the State. And anonymity will never be popular. People love to share everything on Facebook. We'll never be able to solve the metadata problem, probably not even with Zerocash.

Chinese investors are not going to invest in features which have no market, unless it is just a pump & dump or some other money making corruption.


Elaborate please? What does this mean?


As if that is the problem when liquidity is already too low. You can further dilute liquidity across more exchanges.

Okay it perhaps provides access for some more investors. But access is not likely the major issue limiting Monero investment.


Telling us more about an anonymity feature that we don't need.


Incorrect. Marketing is holistic.


Oh the delusions we tell ourselves when we are bagholders.


As if they need anonymity that is not resistant to the tax and regulation authorities. What is the point? Do I want to buy shit from anonymous individuals. No.


What does anonymous block chain tech have to do with chat encryption  


Wow that is going to have at least 1 or 2 participants.


Keep on dreaming.

Now I need to get back to reality.

Edit: I still hold out hope for optional mixers based on Zerocash. I see no reason to prefer a bloated, unscalable block chain such as Cryptonote with its unreliable anonymity (but if you know of large markets for that please correct me).

But for that to be useful we need to make decentralized, permissionless crypto currency popular. Otherwise the mixers will be useless anyway.

Just do the math. If the company owns 1% of all monero, and you need to be a 1 million dollar company at minimum to become a public company in Estonia, then we need Monero to gain a 100 million dollar market cap (and stay there) before it makes sense for that company to go public.

Thanks for the analysis. Added a few thousand xmr to my stash the other day. Glad i did, lookin fairly bullish right now.

Well someone did come along before Satoshi in 2008 and that was me (Shelby), but I was apparently ignored. I basically predicted the Net Neutrality shit we have now and was trying to improve Bram's concept:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130401040049/http://forum.bittorrent.org/viewtopic.php?pid=178#p178

Did Bittorrent implement my proposal? I never followed up (my life went on a tangent).

You can detect some more coherence in my writing back then because that was before I became so ill. I am amazed in hindsight that I understood the concepts of Bittorrent so well having absolutely no experience whatsoever as a developer in P2P.

Yes, it did.  The Bittorrent whitepaper was a breakthrough in p2p not matched until Satoshi came along.

All the cruft of Gnutella (anti-leech arms race kludges, supernodes, etc) was swept away by Bram's brilliantly elegant tit-for-tat algorithm.

Classic example of the world beating a path to the better mousetrap's door.  Everybody still uses it, 20 years later.

Please ignore the MSM, so it will go away ASAP.  Now excuse me, I need to watch The Kelly File!   

I think you are way, way ahead of yourself. This is not the time to judge yet. The 'marketing', ie building out the monero ecosystem has just kicked of.
- China is being addressed (translations & campaigns)
- Privacy centered services are being approached (succesfully)
- additional exchanges are being talked to
- Websites/blogs/infographics are popping up everywhere
- twitter / facebook is being actively used

I also believe that the community is greatly responsible for this, not the devteam. The devteam must make sure they optimize the code and features, so that the community can build out on those fundaments.

It just takes time to develop this project into something that is worth the effort to market. As the features pile up, so will the possibilities and thus ideas.
For example think about what will be possible when Monero has multisig combined with the existing killer ano-features, so many ideas will be springing up.
- Marketplaces (like openbazaar)
- Monero streamium copy for ano webcam-chat etc
- Privacy crowdfunding / political donations platform
- Darknet markets
- filesharing (bittrust)

There's so many bitcoin examples which would work a lot better with untraceable and unlinkable payments. It's just a matter of time for someone picking up an idea and replicating it. And over time, yes, users will recognize the benefit of anonymity. As they are slowly discovering now (outside of the crypto-currency spehre). It just doesn't happen instantly. Rome wasn't build in one day...

Not for investment without widespread user adoption. Without viral user adoption, we probably need Bitcoin to be sanctioned by the State as money to bring the wealthy demographics into it.

The only angle I see is viral user adoption, thus of course driving investment like crazy.

Achieving viral user adoption of money is crazy difficult because money has no utility until it is wide adopted. Thus it is a chicken and egg problem.

With file sharing, you only need a few people to share and then any one can gain utility from it.

Thus it seems any plans for viral adoption are doomed. I should just quit.

But ... what if users became investors and investors became users in a virtuous spiralling cycle that lead to wide spread adoption by both. 

Hi Risto, could you please elaborate on the status of this?

Thanks that is very inspirational.

What I remember is the music industry in cahoots with politicians attempting to kill off file sharing by attacking Napster and some dumb ass politicians thought they could do the same to the decentralized file sharing apps and then later became aware they wouldn't have the power to shut them down (at least not without some global control of all internet protocols).

Then the battle moved to downloaded movies with Bittorrent and the subsequent Kim Dotcom saga which is still ongoing (but looks like they will be able to extradite him to the USA although that is irrelevant to the point of our inquiry I think except it shows the elite are the ones who are one step behind a popular activity).

It seems to me that if there is a popular activity that the world's users want to do and it is decentralized such that it can't be easily regulated by the elite, then the elite are on the losing side.

Thanks! That has been my theory all along and I just wanted to check it again with others to see if I am in delusion.

Bittorrent was spreading for the same reason that VCRs spread. It enables the popular activity of archiving and sharing your favorite media.

The problem for digital currency is it doesn't enable any popular activity. And all my marketing thoughts have been about how to find killer apps for digital currency that users will clamor for. And that is why I think the marketing discussion (and thus the design of the crypto currency to address the marketing) is the most important discussion. Hey I am not trying to belittle the capabilities of the Monero developers. I wish we could all work together. The first order of business is identifying how we address the marketing issue. We need a Bittorrent movement in crypto.

The reason I have resisted just contributing to Monero is because as smart as the devs are at coding, they don't have any marketing sense. And thus they can't lead. Sorry I am not trying to ruin you all, but I can't let you ruin me by leading me in the wrong direction. And Blockstream is no better at marketing and identifying which features are important. Thus again as smart as they are, they can't lead. You will end up in endless discussions and not getting any where.

Note that XMR.to was a stroke of marketing genuis. Who ever did that should be getting more attention from us. And Shapeshift.io was even better. But still both of those haven't identified the killer app for crypto currency that we need to make the masses clamor for it. I have some ideas to try out, but they require me to do a lot of programming just to be able to test the markets. It is a lot of risk for me to take on given I am nearly bankrupt. It is a major sacrifice and I am just thinking about whether I can manage. I am leaning on moving forward and stop posting. But I am still in deep thinking and discuss mode on this first. Maybe a couple or few more days max (hopefully).

Ideally would be to join forces with other devs. But most devs (smooth included) don't want to work for free on crypto. They want something where they can see a reasonable ROI or at least where they are not coding full time (so they can sustain their larger income in their day jobs). Or perhaps they will work for free if it is their own project so they can express their desire to lead or be in that leadership role. It is difficult to figure out how to organize. Seems a leader (e.g. fluffypony) just has to do and not talk and not seek out anyone. Those who are interested chime in when they feel inclined to.

Yet again I come back to that for all the teamwork in Monero, there isn't the leadership focus on how to address a killer app for crypto (perhaps they thought originally anonymity was a killer app and that is another reason I won't follow Monero's leadership because I disagree with that marketing analysis). And the attitude seems to be "build it and wait...markets will come to us".

On top of all that, is since the focus of all altcoins are on speculators and not primarily on users, we end up with all these cat fights and inability to discuss user driven feature sets without getting mired in turf battles.